Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central Plains to Midwest... A complex scenario exists regionally owing to post-MCS influences including MCV development and convective overturning, at least temporarily. For one, there does appear at least a somewhat consistent signal with various convection-allowing guidance that an MCV across southern Minnesota, and its residual enhanced wind field, could influence strong/severe thunderstorm development later today, potentially including parts of Iowa/southeast Minnesota into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Otherwise, in advance of the digging upstream troughing, models indicate that a modest belt of southwesterly low-level flow (including 20-30+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will generally persist through the day east of the lee surface trough, from the Texas Panhandle/South Plains into the middle Missouri Valley. It appears that this will coincide with a corridor of stronger heating/deeper boundary-layer mixing across the higher plains, where thunderstorm activity initiating during the late afternoon may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts. Within the more moist low-level environment across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa, the wind fields, aided by veering with height, might become conducive for supercells, in the presence of sizable CAPE, before forcing for ascent associated with the approaching mid-level trough tends to support upscale-growing clusters this evening. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward over Quebec today, with the base of the trough and moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreading northern New York and northern New England. Models indicate that scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, in the presence of moderate CAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) and shear enhanced at least somewhat by a belt of 20-30 kt westerly mid-level flow. Damaging winds and some hail will be possible regionally, but in particular across northeast New York and Vermont where a more favorable combination of instability/shear should exist near a weak surface wave/warm front. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... In the presence of a moist airmass, and aided by forcing for ascent associated with subtle low-amplitude mid-level perturbations, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Several upscale-growing linear clusters may evolve in the presence of moderate buoyancy and modest-strength westerlies. Microbursts/storms capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard regionally. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central Plains to Midwest... A complex scenario exists regionally owing to post-MCS influences including MCV development and convective overturning, at least temporarily. For one, there does appear at least a somewhat consistent signal with various convection-allowing guidance that an MCV across southern Minnesota, and its residual enhanced wind field, could influence strong/severe thunderstorm development later today, potentially including parts of Iowa/southeast Minnesota into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Otherwise, in advance of the digging upstream troughing, models indicate that a modest belt of southwesterly low-level flow (including 20-30+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will generally persist through the day east of the lee surface trough, from the Texas Panhandle/South Plains into the middle Missouri Valley. It appears that this will coincide with a corridor of stronger heating/deeper boundary-layer mixing across the higher plains, where thunderstorm activity initiating during the late afternoon may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts. Within the more moist low-level environment across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa, the wind fields, aided by veering with height, might become conducive for supercells, in the presence of sizable CAPE, before forcing for ascent associated with the approaching mid-level trough tends to support upscale-growing clusters this evening. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward over Quebec today, with the base of the trough and moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreading northern New York and northern New England. Models indicate that scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, in the presence of moderate CAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) and shear enhanced at least somewhat by a belt of 20-30 kt westerly mid-level flow. Damaging winds and some hail will be possible regionally, but in particular across northeast New York and Vermont where a more favorable combination of instability/shear should exist near a weak surface wave/warm front. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... In the presence of a moist airmass, and aided by forcing for ascent associated with subtle low-amplitude mid-level perturbations, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Several upscale-growing linear clusters may evolve in the presence of moderate buoyancy and modest-strength westerlies. Microbursts/storms capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard regionally. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central Plains to Midwest... A complex scenario exists regionally owing to post-MCS influences including MCV development and convective overturning, at least temporarily. For one, there does appear at least a somewhat consistent signal with various convection-allowing guidance that an MCV across southern Minnesota, and its residual enhanced wind field, could influence strong/severe thunderstorm development later today, potentially including parts of Iowa/southeast Minnesota into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Otherwise, in advance of the digging upstream troughing, models indicate that a modest belt of southwesterly low-level flow (including 20-30+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will generally persist through the day east of the lee surface trough, from the Texas Panhandle/South Plains into the middle Missouri Valley. It appears that this will coincide with a corridor of stronger heating/deeper boundary-layer mixing across the higher plains, where thunderstorm activity initiating during the late afternoon may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts. Within the more moist low-level environment across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa, the wind fields, aided by veering with height, might become conducive for supercells, in the presence of sizable CAPE, before forcing for ascent associated with the approaching mid-level trough tends to support upscale-growing clusters this evening. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward over Quebec today, with the base of the trough and moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreading northern New York and northern New England. Models indicate that scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, in the presence of moderate CAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) and shear enhanced at least somewhat by a belt of 20-30 kt westerly mid-level flow. Damaging winds and some hail will be possible regionally, but in particular across northeast New York and Vermont where a more favorable combination of instability/shear should exist near a weak surface wave/warm front. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... In the presence of a moist airmass, and aided by forcing for ascent associated with subtle low-amplitude mid-level perturbations, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Several upscale-growing linear clusters may evolve in the presence of moderate buoyancy and modest-strength westerlies. Microbursts/storms capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard regionally. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central Plains to Midwest... A complex scenario exists regionally owing to post-MCS influences including MCV development and convective overturning, at least temporarily. For one, there does appear at least a somewhat consistent signal with various convection-allowing guidance that an MCV across southern Minnesota, and its residual enhanced wind field, could influence strong/severe thunderstorm development later today, potentially including parts of Iowa/southeast Minnesota into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Otherwise, in advance of the digging upstream troughing, models indicate that a modest belt of southwesterly low-level flow (including 20-30+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will generally persist through the day east of the lee surface trough, from the Texas Panhandle/South Plains into the middle Missouri Valley. It appears that this will coincide with a corridor of stronger heating/deeper boundary-layer mixing across the higher plains, where thunderstorm activity initiating during the late afternoon may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts. Within the more moist low-level environment across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa, the wind fields, aided by veering with height, might become conducive for supercells, in the presence of sizable CAPE, before forcing for ascent associated with the approaching mid-level trough tends to support upscale-growing clusters this evening. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward over Quebec today, with the base of the trough and moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreading northern New York and northern New England. Models indicate that scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, in the presence of moderate CAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) and shear enhanced at least somewhat by a belt of 20-30 kt westerly mid-level flow. Damaging winds and some hail will be possible regionally, but in particular across northeast New York and Vermont where a more favorable combination of instability/shear should exist near a weak surface wave/warm front. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... In the presence of a moist airmass, and aided by forcing for ascent associated with subtle low-amplitude mid-level perturbations, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Several upscale-growing linear clusters may evolve in the presence of moderate buoyancy and modest-strength westerlies. Microbursts/storms capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard regionally. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central Plains to Midwest... A complex scenario exists regionally owing to post-MCS influences including MCV development and convective overturning, at least temporarily. For one, there does appear at least a somewhat consistent signal with various convection-allowing guidance that an MCV across southern Minnesota, and its residual enhanced wind field, could influence strong/severe thunderstorm development later today, potentially including parts of Iowa/southeast Minnesota into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Otherwise, in advance of the digging upstream troughing, models indicate that a modest belt of southwesterly low-level flow (including 20-30+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will generally persist through the day east of the lee surface trough, from the Texas Panhandle/South Plains into the middle Missouri Valley. It appears that this will coincide with a corridor of stronger heating/deeper boundary-layer mixing across the higher plains, where thunderstorm activity initiating during the late afternoon may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts. Within the more moist low-level environment across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa, the wind fields, aided by veering with height, might become conducive for supercells, in the presence of sizable CAPE, before forcing for ascent associated with the approaching mid-level trough tends to support upscale-growing clusters this evening. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward over Quebec today, with the base of the trough and moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreading northern New York and northern New England. Models indicate that scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, in the presence of moderate CAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) and shear enhanced at least somewhat by a belt of 20-30 kt westerly mid-level flow. Damaging winds and some hail will be possible regionally, but in particular across northeast New York and Vermont where a more favorable combination of instability/shear should exist near a weak surface wave/warm front. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... In the presence of a moist airmass, and aided by forcing for ascent associated with subtle low-amplitude mid-level perturbations, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Several upscale-growing linear clusters may evolve in the presence of moderate buoyancy and modest-strength westerlies. Microbursts/storms capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard regionally. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/10/2025 Read more

MD 1626 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NE INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST IA...NORTHWEST MO...AND NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1626 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/southeast NE into adjacent southwest IA...northwest MO...and northeast KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 100857Z - 101030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may continue through the early morning. DISCUSSION...A long-lived QLCS has shown a gradual weakening trend from western IA into southeast NE early this morning. However, a wake low has developed behind the line across southeast NE, as evidenced by an earlier 1-hour pressure drop of 7.8 mb and gusts up to 56 kt at KLNK. This area of strong to locally severe wake low winds may spread across parts of northeast KS and far northwest MO/southwest IA with time. Locally damaging gusts also remain possible near the primary gust front of the QLCS, especially where more vigorous convection persists across southwest IA. Farther west, a strong low-level jet (as noted on recent VWPs from KLNX) and related warm-advection regime are supporting strong to potentially severe elevated storms across central NE. An earlier cell within this regime became rather intense, with MESH hail estimates of greater than 2 inches in diameter. While this cell has since weakened, strong elevated instability and sufficient effective shear may continue to support a threat of isolated hail and localized strong/damaging gusts within this regime through the early morning. ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42339995 42719947 42299868 41489788 40909748 41019555 41439480 41449405 41349376 40989386 40399398 40059412 39769476 39849733 40059822 40329879 40629925 41249978 41599993 42339995 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... At the start of the forecast period, the mid-level pattern will generally be zonal across much country, with the greatest height gradient found across the northern United States. By the middle of next week, a short-wave trough moving within the broader flow regime will amplify the height field across the northern Rockies before moving into the central US. The overall pattern recognition would suggest the potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms ahead of this feature across then northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. However, model run-to-run timing differences along with inter-model timing differences precludes the ability to identify 15% unconditional probabilities on any given day. Associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough, a surface-cold front will push south through much of the Plains and into the East. Additional thunderstorms will be likely along the front, however, the location of the front on any given day will be strongly influenced by previous days' convection. As such, when coupled with the uncertainty in the timing of any mid-level wave, predictability is too low to identify unconditional probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... At the start of the forecast period, the mid-level pattern will generally be zonal across much country, with the greatest height gradient found across the northern United States. By the middle of next week, a short-wave trough moving within the broader flow regime will amplify the height field across the northern Rockies before moving into the central US. The overall pattern recognition would suggest the potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms ahead of this feature across then northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. However, model run-to-run timing differences along with inter-model timing differences precludes the ability to identify 15% unconditional probabilities on any given day. Associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough, a surface-cold front will push south through much of the Plains and into the East. Additional thunderstorms will be likely along the front, however, the location of the front on any given day will be strongly influenced by previous days' convection. As such, when coupled with the uncertainty in the timing of any mid-level wave, predictability is too low to identify unconditional probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... At the start of the forecast period, the mid-level pattern will generally be zonal across much country, with the greatest height gradient found across the northern United States. By the middle of next week, a short-wave trough moving within the broader flow regime will amplify the height field across the northern Rockies before moving into the central US. The overall pattern recognition would suggest the potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms ahead of this feature across then northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. However, model run-to-run timing differences along with inter-model timing differences precludes the ability to identify 15% unconditional probabilities on any given day. Associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough, a surface-cold front will push south through much of the Plains and into the East. Additional thunderstorms will be likely along the front, however, the location of the front on any given day will be strongly influenced by previous days' convection. As such, when coupled with the uncertainty in the timing of any mid-level wave, predictability is too low to identify unconditional probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... At the start of the forecast period, the mid-level pattern will generally be zonal across much country, with the greatest height gradient found across the northern United States. By the middle of next week, a short-wave trough moving within the broader flow regime will amplify the height field across the northern Rockies before moving into the central US. The overall pattern recognition would suggest the potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms ahead of this feature across then northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. However, model run-to-run timing differences along with inter-model timing differences precludes the ability to identify 15% unconditional probabilities on any given day. Associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough, a surface-cold front will push south through much of the Plains and into the East. Additional thunderstorms will be likely along the front, however, the location of the front on any given day will be strongly influenced by previous days' convection. As such, when coupled with the uncertainty in the timing of any mid-level wave, predictability is too low to identify unconditional probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... At the start of the forecast period, the mid-level pattern will generally be zonal across much country, with the greatest height gradient found across the northern United States. By the middle of next week, a short-wave trough moving within the broader flow regime will amplify the height field across the northern Rockies before moving into the central US. The overall pattern recognition would suggest the potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms ahead of this feature across then northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. However, model run-to-run timing differences along with inter-model timing differences precludes the ability to identify 15% unconditional probabilities on any given day. Associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough, a surface-cold front will push south through much of the Plains and into the East. Additional thunderstorms will be likely along the front, however, the location of the front on any given day will be strongly influenced by previous days' convection. As such, when coupled with the uncertainty in the timing of any mid-level wave, predictability is too low to identify unconditional probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... At the start of the forecast period, the mid-level pattern will generally be zonal across much country, with the greatest height gradient found across the northern United States. By the middle of next week, a short-wave trough moving within the broader flow regime will amplify the height field across the northern Rockies before moving into the central US. The overall pattern recognition would suggest the potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms ahead of this feature across then northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes. However, model run-to-run timing differences along with inter-model timing differences precludes the ability to identify 15% unconditional probabilities on any given day. Associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough, a surface-cold front will push south through much of the Plains and into the East. Additional thunderstorms will be likely along the front, however, the location of the front on any given day will be strongly influenced by previous days' convection. As such, when coupled with the uncertainty in the timing of any mid-level wave, predictability is too low to identify unconditional probabilities at this time. Read more

MD 1625 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...SOUTHWEST MN...EXTREME NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1625 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Areas affected...Eastern NE...western IA...southwest MN...extreme northeast KS/northwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 100639Z - 100845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and isolated hail remain possible overnight. DISCUSSION...A QLCS is ongoing early this morning from eastern NE into northwest IA and southwest MN. Recent measured gusts have generally been subsevere in the 40-45 kt range, and increasing MLCINH with time and decreasing deep-layer shear with eastward extent may tend to limit severe-wind potential somewhat. However, substantial buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and a well-established cold pool could still support intensification of this QLCS on a localized basis, with isolated damaging gusts possible. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates could also result in some hail potential with the stronger embedded cores, and also with more discrete development ahead of the primary convective line. ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 43949643 44109534 43989433 43149378 41589347 40669452 39779589 39799701 40239868 40399846 40579800 41299665 42199618 43229634 43949643 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Upper Great Lakes during much of the day on Saturday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the central and southern High Plains southeastward toward the Texas Hill Country. ... Upper Great Lakes ... Multiple vorticity maxima will coalesce into a singular short-wave trough across the region on Saturday. This amalgamation of vorticity will take on an increasingly negative tilt as this feature moves through the basal region of a broad Canadian trough. As this occurs, the upper-level jet core downstream of the Canadian trough will strengthen, placing much of the Upper Great lakes within the right entrance region of the jet. Thus, multiple bands of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a surface cold front in response to this increasing large-scale ascent. Most-unstable CAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg and effective-layer shear between 30-40 knots will support at least some potential for damaging thunderstorm winds. ... Central High Plains southeast toward the Texas Hill Country ... Thunderstorms will be ongoing across portions of the southern Great Plains throughout the forecast period along a stalled frontal boundary. Although an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out along the frontal boundary, the greatest chance of organized severe thunderstorms will develop during the late afternoon across the higher terrain of central and southern Colorado. Here, moist upslope flow at the surface coupled with modest north-northwesterly flow aloft should aid in the development of an MCS during the afternoon and evening. This MCS should move south-southeast during the overnight hours across portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles eventually approaching the Texas Hill Country by the end of the forecast period. ..Marsh.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Upper Great Lakes during much of the day on Saturday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the central and southern High Plains southeastward toward the Texas Hill Country. ... Upper Great Lakes ... Multiple vorticity maxima will coalesce into a singular short-wave trough across the region on Saturday. This amalgamation of vorticity will take on an increasingly negative tilt as this feature moves through the basal region of a broad Canadian trough. As this occurs, the upper-level jet core downstream of the Canadian trough will strengthen, placing much of the Upper Great lakes within the right entrance region of the jet. Thus, multiple bands of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a surface cold front in response to this increasing large-scale ascent. Most-unstable CAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg and effective-layer shear between 30-40 knots will support at least some potential for damaging thunderstorm winds. ... Central High Plains southeast toward the Texas Hill Country ... Thunderstorms will be ongoing across portions of the southern Great Plains throughout the forecast period along a stalled frontal boundary. Although an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out along the frontal boundary, the greatest chance of organized severe thunderstorms will develop during the late afternoon across the higher terrain of central and southern Colorado. Here, moist upslope flow at the surface coupled with modest north-northwesterly flow aloft should aid in the development of an MCS during the afternoon and evening. This MCS should move south-southeast during the overnight hours across portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles eventually approaching the Texas Hill Country by the end of the forecast period. ..Marsh.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Upper Great Lakes during much of the day on Saturday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the central and southern High Plains southeastward toward the Texas Hill Country. ... Upper Great Lakes ... Multiple vorticity maxima will coalesce into a singular short-wave trough across the region on Saturday. This amalgamation of vorticity will take on an increasingly negative tilt as this feature moves through the basal region of a broad Canadian trough. As this occurs, the upper-level jet core downstream of the Canadian trough will strengthen, placing much of the Upper Great lakes within the right entrance region of the jet. Thus, multiple bands of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a surface cold front in response to this increasing large-scale ascent. Most-unstable CAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg and effective-layer shear between 30-40 knots will support at least some potential for damaging thunderstorm winds. ... Central High Plains southeast toward the Texas Hill Country ... Thunderstorms will be ongoing across portions of the southern Great Plains throughout the forecast period along a stalled frontal boundary. Although an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out along the frontal boundary, the greatest chance of organized severe thunderstorms will develop during the late afternoon across the higher terrain of central and southern Colorado. Here, moist upslope flow at the surface coupled with modest north-northwesterly flow aloft should aid in the development of an MCS during the afternoon and evening. This MCS should move south-southeast during the overnight hours across portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles eventually approaching the Texas Hill Country by the end of the forecast period. ..Marsh.. 07/10/2025 Read more