Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level (30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI. However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday afternoon. ...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains... Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear. Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants broad, low severe probabilities at this time. ..Grams.. 07/10/2025 Read more

MD 1627 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1627 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Ohio into northern Pennsylvania and western New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101651Z - 101845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing through the afternoon will be capable of damaging winds. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and lighting data show the early stages of thunderstorm development across northeast OH into western NY within a diffuse surface trough and along developing lake breeze boundaries. Thunderstorm coverage should slowly increase through the afternoon as temperatures warm and baroclinic circulations strengthen along the lake breeze boundaries. Despite warm/moist low-level conditions, modest mid-level lapse rates should limit overall buoyancy values to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Additionally, deep-layer wind shear over the region remains fairly meager with regional VWPs and morning RAOBs sampling mid/upper-level winds of around 20-30 knots. Given weak low-level flow, this will be adequate for some degree of storm organization and persistence, but should modulate overall convective intensities. Watch issuance is not expected, but a few instances of damaging winds appear possible as storms develop through the afternoon. ..Moore/Mosier.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 40968248 41188220 43437605 43517545 43387513 42997473 42627468 42187482 41947534 40228061 40088127 40048180 40148226 40388246 40648249 40968248 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added to portions of western Colorado for tomorrow (Friday). Thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain as upper-support glances the region from the north. The storms should be initially dry before transitioning to a more wet phase as they advance toward the central High Plains, where greater moisture/buoyancy will be present. Fuels are dry across western Colorado, with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, and fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. As such, any thunderstorms developing over the drier fuel beds will have considerable ignition potential, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the western CONUS on Friday, resulting in a warming trend and lighter surface winds. Outside of terrain-favored areas, this will generally limit fire-weather concerns regionally compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more