Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is currently low. ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains... A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop. This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds will exist. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is currently low. ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains... A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop. This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds will exist. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is currently low. ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains... A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop. This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds will exist. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is currently low. ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains... A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop. This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds will exist. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is currently low. ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains... A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop. This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds will exist. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is currently low. ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains... A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop. This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds will exist. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is currently low. ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains... A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop. This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds will exist. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from portions of the Northeast southward into the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas and Southeast. ...20Z Update... Recent surface analysis places a low over southern Quebec, with an extensive cold front extending south of this low into the central Appalachians and then back more southwestward into southern LA. Thunderstorms are ongoing along this front over portions of TN, GA, and AL. The lack of buoyancy is limiting storm depth and lightning production along much the front farther north from the central Appalachians into southern Quebec. The only exception is over western NY, where brief clearing allowed surface temperatures to climb into the upper 50s/low 60s, promoting minimal buoyancy. Damaging gusts will remain possible along the length of this front throughout the afternoon and evening, particularly in areas where deeper storm depth contributes to stronger, convectively augmented gusts. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from portions of the Northeast southward into the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas and Southeast. ...20Z Update... Recent surface analysis places a low over southern Quebec, with an extensive cold front extending south of this low into the central Appalachians and then back more southwestward into southern LA. Thunderstorms are ongoing along this front over portions of TN, GA, and AL. The lack of buoyancy is limiting storm depth and lightning production along much the front farther north from the central Appalachians into southern Quebec. The only exception is over western NY, where brief clearing allowed surface temperatures to climb into the upper 50s/low 60s, promoting minimal buoyancy. Damaging gusts will remain possible along the length of this front throughout the afternoon and evening, particularly in areas where deeper storm depth contributes to stronger, convectively augmented gusts. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from portions of the Northeast southward into the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas and Southeast. ...20Z Update... Recent surface analysis places a low over southern Quebec, with an extensive cold front extending south of this low into the central Appalachians and then back more southwestward into southern LA. Thunderstorms are ongoing along this front over portions of TN, GA, and AL. The lack of buoyancy is limiting storm depth and lightning production along much the front farther north from the central Appalachians into southern Quebec. The only exception is over western NY, where brief clearing allowed surface temperatures to climb into the upper 50s/low 60s, promoting minimal buoyancy. Damaging gusts will remain possible along the length of this front throughout the afternoon and evening, particularly in areas where deeper storm depth contributes to stronger, convectively augmented gusts. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from portions of the Northeast southward into the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas and Southeast. ...20Z Update... Recent surface analysis places a low over southern Quebec, with an extensive cold front extending south of this low into the central Appalachians and then back more southwestward into southern LA. Thunderstorms are ongoing along this front over portions of TN, GA, and AL. The lack of buoyancy is limiting storm depth and lightning production along much the front farther north from the central Appalachians into southern Quebec. The only exception is over western NY, where brief clearing allowed surface temperatures to climb into the upper 50s/low 60s, promoting minimal buoyancy. Damaging gusts will remain possible along the length of this front throughout the afternoon and evening, particularly in areas where deeper storm depth contributes to stronger, convectively augmented gusts. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from portions of the Northeast southward into the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas and Southeast. ...20Z Update... Recent surface analysis places a low over southern Quebec, with an extensive cold front extending south of this low into the central Appalachians and then back more southwestward into southern LA. Thunderstorms are ongoing along this front over portions of TN, GA, and AL. The lack of buoyancy is limiting storm depth and lightning production along much the front farther north from the central Appalachians into southern Quebec. The only exception is over western NY, where brief clearing allowed surface temperatures to climb into the upper 50s/low 60s, promoting minimal buoyancy. Damaging gusts will remain possible along the length of this front throughout the afternoon and evening, particularly in areas where deeper storm depth contributes to stronger, convectively augmented gusts. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from portions of the Northeast southward into the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas and Southeast. ...20Z Update... Recent surface analysis places a low over southern Quebec, with an extensive cold front extending south of this low into the central Appalachians and then back more southwestward into southern LA. Thunderstorms are ongoing along this front over portions of TN, GA, and AL. The lack of buoyancy is limiting storm depth and lightning production along much the front farther north from the central Appalachians into southern Quebec. The only exception is over western NY, where brief clearing allowed surface temperatures to climb into the upper 50s/low 60s, promoting minimal buoyancy. Damaging gusts will remain possible along the length of this front throughout the afternoon and evening, particularly in areas where deeper storm depth contributes to stronger, convectively augmented gusts. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from portions of the Northeast southward into the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas and Southeast. ...20Z Update... Recent surface analysis places a low over southern Quebec, with an extensive cold front extending south of this low into the central Appalachians and then back more southwestward into southern LA. Thunderstorms are ongoing along this front over portions of TN, GA, and AL. The lack of buoyancy is limiting storm depth and lightning production along much the front farther north from the central Appalachians into southern Quebec. The only exception is over western NY, where brief clearing allowed surface temperatures to climb into the upper 50s/low 60s, promoting minimal buoyancy. Damaging gusts will remain possible along the length of this front throughout the afternoon and evening, particularly in areas where deeper storm depth contributes to stronger, convectively augmented gusts. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from portions of the Northeast southward into the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas and Southeast. ...20Z Update... Recent surface analysis places a low over southern Quebec, with an extensive cold front extending south of this low into the central Appalachians and then back more southwestward into southern LA. Thunderstorms are ongoing along this front over portions of TN, GA, and AL. The lack of buoyancy is limiting storm depth and lightning production along much the front farther north from the central Appalachians into southern Quebec. The only exception is over western NY, where brief clearing allowed surface temperatures to climb into the upper 50s/low 60s, promoting minimal buoyancy. Damaging gusts will remain possible along the length of this front throughout the afternoon and evening, particularly in areas where deeper storm depth contributes to stronger, convectively augmented gusts. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from portions of the Northeast southward into the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas and Southeast. ...20Z Update... Recent surface analysis places a low over southern Quebec, with an extensive cold front extending south of this low into the central Appalachians and then back more southwestward into southern LA. Thunderstorms are ongoing along this front over portions of TN, GA, and AL. The lack of buoyancy is limiting storm depth and lightning production along much the front farther north from the central Appalachians into southern Quebec. The only exception is over western NY, where brief clearing allowed surface temperatures to climb into the upper 50s/low 60s, promoting minimal buoyancy. Damaging gusts will remain possible along the length of this front throughout the afternoon and evening, particularly in areas where deeper storm depth contributes to stronger, convectively augmented gusts. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area has been added for parts of the central Plains into Iowa. There is reasonably high confidence in winds of 20-25 mph winds (with higher gusts) across these areas. There does remain some uncertainty on how warm temperatures will be during the afternoon, particularly where upper-level clouds will be more prevalent farther south. Greater weight was given to the warmer/drier models given the dry return flow setup. There were areas of snowfall, some of which has melted today, that could limit the fire weather threat to some extent. Those areas were not included at this time, though locally elevated conditions would be possible. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Eastern US trough is forecast to move offshore as transient ridging shifts eastward over the central CONUS. A southern stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains along with a weak surface low. The post-frontal air mass over much of the Plains and central US will quickly modify as southerly winds redevelop. While widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, dry and breezy conditions are possible. ...Central Plains and Mid MS Valley... As the surface high pressure in the post-frontal air mass to the east strengthens, southerly return flow should quickly redevelop over the Plains. With the much drier air mass from the proceeding days in place, gusty southerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible from parts of KS into western MO and southern NE. RH values may not reach critical criteria more than briefly, but dry fuels and the gusty winds could support a risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Gulf Coast... Gusty offshore winds and dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast. While not overly strong or dry, lower humidity and gusty winds should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area has been added for parts of the central Plains into Iowa. There is reasonably high confidence in winds of 20-25 mph winds (with higher gusts) across these areas. There does remain some uncertainty on how warm temperatures will be during the afternoon, particularly where upper-level clouds will be more prevalent farther south. Greater weight was given to the warmer/drier models given the dry return flow setup. There were areas of snowfall, some of which has melted today, that could limit the fire weather threat to some extent. Those areas were not included at this time, though locally elevated conditions would be possible. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Eastern US trough is forecast to move offshore as transient ridging shifts eastward over the central CONUS. A southern stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains along with a weak surface low. The post-frontal air mass over much of the Plains and central US will quickly modify as southerly winds redevelop. While widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, dry and breezy conditions are possible. ...Central Plains and Mid MS Valley... As the surface high pressure in the post-frontal air mass to the east strengthens, southerly return flow should quickly redevelop over the Plains. With the much drier air mass from the proceeding days in place, gusty southerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible from parts of KS into western MO and southern NE. RH values may not reach critical criteria more than briefly, but dry fuels and the gusty winds could support a risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Gulf Coast... Gusty offshore winds and dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast. While not overly strong or dry, lower humidity and gusty winds should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area has been added for parts of the central Plains into Iowa. There is reasonably high confidence in winds of 20-25 mph winds (with higher gusts) across these areas. There does remain some uncertainty on how warm temperatures will be during the afternoon, particularly where upper-level clouds will be more prevalent farther south. Greater weight was given to the warmer/drier models given the dry return flow setup. There were areas of snowfall, some of which has melted today, that could limit the fire weather threat to some extent. Those areas were not included at this time, though locally elevated conditions would be possible. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Eastern US trough is forecast to move offshore as transient ridging shifts eastward over the central CONUS. A southern stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains along with a weak surface low. The post-frontal air mass over much of the Plains and central US will quickly modify as southerly winds redevelop. While widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, dry and breezy conditions are possible. ...Central Plains and Mid MS Valley... As the surface high pressure in the post-frontal air mass to the east strengthens, southerly return flow should quickly redevelop over the Plains. With the much drier air mass from the proceeding days in place, gusty southerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible from parts of KS into western MO and southern NE. RH values may not reach critical criteria more than briefly, but dry fuels and the gusty winds could support a risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Gulf Coast... Gusty offshore winds and dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast. While not overly strong or dry, lower humidity and gusty winds should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area has been added for parts of the central Plains into Iowa. There is reasonably high confidence in winds of 20-25 mph winds (with higher gusts) across these areas. There does remain some uncertainty on how warm temperatures will be during the afternoon, particularly where upper-level clouds will be more prevalent farther south. Greater weight was given to the warmer/drier models given the dry return flow setup. There were areas of snowfall, some of which has melted today, that could limit the fire weather threat to some extent. Those areas were not included at this time, though locally elevated conditions would be possible. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Eastern US trough is forecast to move offshore as transient ridging shifts eastward over the central CONUS. A southern stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains along with a weak surface low. The post-frontal air mass over much of the Plains and central US will quickly modify as southerly winds redevelop. While widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected, dry and breezy conditions are possible. ...Central Plains and Mid MS Valley... As the surface high pressure in the post-frontal air mass to the east strengthens, southerly return flow should quickly redevelop over the Plains. With the much drier air mass from the proceeding days in place, gusty southerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible from parts of KS into western MO and southern NE. RH values may not reach critical criteria more than briefly, but dry fuels and the gusty winds could support a risk for locally elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Gulf Coast... Gusty offshore winds and dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast. While not overly strong or dry, lower humidity and gusty winds should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more