Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Significant severe weather episode possible late afternoon and evening on Monday... A mid/upper low over the central CA vicinity at 12Z Sunday should evolve into an open wave as it ejects across the Southwest and into the central Great Plains by around Tuesday morning. As it crosses the Rockies onto the High Plains, the tropospheric flow field will amplify with substantial lee cyclogenesis in the central High Plains on Monday afternoon. While a moderate amount of spread persists across respective ensemble systems, 00Z deterministic runs have converged towards greater agreement with the aforementioned scenario through D5, with progressively lower predictability in D6-8. With about 3 days of persistent low-level moisture modification from the western Gulf beneath an extensive elevated mixed layer, the northern extent of mid 60s surface dew points should reach into most of OK east of the dryline by Monday afternoon. Late afternoon thunderstorm initiation along the dryline appears probable in the eastern TX Panhandle/western north TX to western OK vicinity, within a kinematic and thermodynamic profile favorable for strong supercells. Convective development will blossom both south and especially north extent during the evening across the central and southern Great Plains. For this outlook, have expanded the 30 percent area to highlight the greater spatial confidence in a substantial severe weather episode. Despite increasing predictability concerns and the impact of prior day convection, very strong flow fields should persist into at least the first half of D6/Tuesday as a deep surface cyclone pivots northeast towards the Upper MS Valley vicinity. While instability will be weaker compared to Monday, organized severe potential is evident within an arc from a portion of the Upper MS Valley to the Mid-South. In the wake of this lead system, the shortwave trough digging into the Pacific Northwest may carve out a broad, positive-tilt trough in the West by mid-week. Consensus of guidance suggests that rich low-level moisture over the southern Great Plains will not be scoured by the lead wave. This may yield daily bouts of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and southern Great Plains late in the period and beyond. Predictability for individual day highlights is too low to warrant 15 percent probabilities yet. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Significant severe weather episode possible late afternoon and evening on Monday... A mid/upper low over the central CA vicinity at 12Z Sunday should evolve into an open wave as it ejects across the Southwest and into the central Great Plains by around Tuesday morning. As it crosses the Rockies onto the High Plains, the tropospheric flow field will amplify with substantial lee cyclogenesis in the central High Plains on Monday afternoon. While a moderate amount of spread persists across respective ensemble systems, 00Z deterministic runs have converged towards greater agreement with the aforementioned scenario through D5, with progressively lower predictability in D6-8. With about 3 days of persistent low-level moisture modification from the western Gulf beneath an extensive elevated mixed layer, the northern extent of mid 60s surface dew points should reach into most of OK east of the dryline by Monday afternoon. Late afternoon thunderstorm initiation along the dryline appears probable in the eastern TX Panhandle/western north TX to western OK vicinity, within a kinematic and thermodynamic profile favorable for strong supercells. Convective development will blossom both south and especially north extent during the evening across the central and southern Great Plains. For this outlook, have expanded the 30 percent area to highlight the greater spatial confidence in a substantial severe weather episode. Despite increasing predictability concerns and the impact of prior day convection, very strong flow fields should persist into at least the first half of D6/Tuesday as a deep surface cyclone pivots northeast towards the Upper MS Valley vicinity. While instability will be weaker compared to Monday, organized severe potential is evident within an arc from a portion of the Upper MS Valley to the Mid-South. In the wake of this lead system, the shortwave trough digging into the Pacific Northwest may carve out a broad, positive-tilt trough in the West by mid-week. Consensus of guidance suggests that rich low-level moisture over the southern Great Plains will not be scoured by the lead wave. This may yield daily bouts of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central and southern Great Plains late in the period and beyond. Predictability for individual day highlights is too low to warrant 15 percent probabilities yet. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds. ...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored). ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0418 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0418 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...Central/Eastern FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 110558Z - 110800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts are possible along the immediate coastal portions of the central and eastern Florida Panhandle. DISCUSSION...More robust thunderstorms have developed across the central FL Panhandle over the past hour or so. A bowing segment recently moved across the region, producing a 50 kt gust at AAF and a few other near-severe gusts at mesonet sites in Franklin County. This band is moving quickly northeastward into a region with greater low-level stability. As a result, despite strong kinematic fields, the potential for damaging gusts to reach the surface will lessen with northward extent. The portion of the line moving into Wakulla County has the greatest potential to produce a few damaging gusts over the next half hour. Another band of strong thunderstorms has developed in the wake of the band moving through the region now, with much of this second band currently offshore. There is some potential for a few damaging gusts, mostly along the immediate coastal areas of Gulf and Franklin Counties, as this second band continues east-northeastward. ..Mosier/Smith.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 29808592 30538541 30768502 30898417 30538350 29858394 29568483 29568582 29808592 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east near the northeast Gulf coast. This will occur beneath a broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection in parts of the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. Favorable west-northwesterly speed shear should be present, conditionally favoring a threat for hail. But scant buoyancy to the northeast of the elevated mixed layer will probably curtail appreciable hail growth. Some signal exists early morning Sunday for isolated convection to develop in the south Lower MI to northwest OH vicinity, where elevated buoyancy will be greater. This area will be monitored in later outlooks for a possible hail-driven level 1-MRGL risk. ...West... The amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland. The initially meridional and intense mid-level jet east-southeast of the low will weaken as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the south Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and weaker across the Northwest relative to Friday, lowering confidence in highlighting any appreciable severe threat. Low-topped, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central CA, with additional isolated thunderstorms possible from north CA to the northern Rockies. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east near the northeast Gulf coast. This will occur beneath a broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection in parts of the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. Favorable west-northwesterly speed shear should be present, conditionally favoring a threat for hail. But scant buoyancy to the northeast of the elevated mixed layer will probably curtail appreciable hail growth. Some signal exists early morning Sunday for isolated convection to develop in the south Lower MI to northwest OH vicinity, where elevated buoyancy will be greater. This area will be monitored in later outlooks for a possible hail-driven level 1-MRGL risk. ...West... The amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland. The initially meridional and intense mid-level jet east-southeast of the low will weaken as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the south Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and weaker across the Northwest relative to Friday, lowering confidence in highlighting any appreciable severe threat. Low-topped, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central CA, with additional isolated thunderstorms possible from north CA to the northern Rockies. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east near the northeast Gulf coast. This will occur beneath a broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection in parts of the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. Favorable west-northwesterly speed shear should be present, conditionally favoring a threat for hail. But scant buoyancy to the northeast of the elevated mixed layer will probably curtail appreciable hail growth. Some signal exists early morning Sunday for isolated convection to develop in the south Lower MI to northwest OH vicinity, where elevated buoyancy will be greater. This area will be monitored in later outlooks for a possible hail-driven level 1-MRGL risk. ...West... The amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland. The initially meridional and intense mid-level jet east-southeast of the low will weaken as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the south Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and weaker across the Northwest relative to Friday, lowering confidence in highlighting any appreciable severe threat. Low-topped, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central CA, with additional isolated thunderstorms possible from north CA to the northern Rockies. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east near the northeast Gulf coast. This will occur beneath a broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection in parts of the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. Favorable west-northwesterly speed shear should be present, conditionally favoring a threat for hail. But scant buoyancy to the northeast of the elevated mixed layer will probably curtail appreciable hail growth. Some signal exists early morning Sunday for isolated convection to develop in the south Lower MI to northwest OH vicinity, where elevated buoyancy will be greater. This area will be monitored in later outlooks for a possible hail-driven level 1-MRGL risk. ...West... The amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland. The initially meridional and intense mid-level jet east-southeast of the low will weaken as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the south Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and weaker across the Northwest relative to Friday, lowering confidence in highlighting any appreciable severe threat. Low-topped, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central CA, with additional isolated thunderstorms possible from north CA to the northern Rockies. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east near the northeast Gulf coast. This will occur beneath a broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection in parts of the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. Favorable west-northwesterly speed shear should be present, conditionally favoring a threat for hail. But scant buoyancy to the northeast of the elevated mixed layer will probably curtail appreciable hail growth. Some signal exists early morning Sunday for isolated convection to develop in the south Lower MI to northwest OH vicinity, where elevated buoyancy will be greater. This area will be monitored in later outlooks for a possible hail-driven level 1-MRGL risk. ...West... The amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland. The initially meridional and intense mid-level jet east-southeast of the low will weaken as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the south Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and weaker across the Northwest relative to Friday, lowering confidence in highlighting any appreciable severe threat. Low-topped, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central CA, with additional isolated thunderstorms possible from north CA to the northern Rockies. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east near the northeast Gulf coast. This will occur beneath a broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection in parts of the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. Favorable west-northwesterly speed shear should be present, conditionally favoring a threat for hail. But scant buoyancy to the northeast of the elevated mixed layer will probably curtail appreciable hail growth. Some signal exists early morning Sunday for isolated convection to develop in the south Lower MI to northwest OH vicinity, where elevated buoyancy will be greater. This area will be monitored in later outlooks for a possible hail-driven level 1-MRGL risk. ...West... The amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland. The initially meridional and intense mid-level jet east-southeast of the low will weaken as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the south Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and weaker across the Northwest relative to Friday, lowering confidence in highlighting any appreciable severe threat. Low-topped, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central CA, with additional isolated thunderstorms possible from north CA to the northern Rockies. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east near the northeast Gulf coast. This will occur beneath a broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection in parts of the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. Favorable west-northwesterly speed shear should be present, conditionally favoring a threat for hail. But scant buoyancy to the northeast of the elevated mixed layer will probably curtail appreciable hail growth. Some signal exists early morning Sunday for isolated convection to develop in the south Lower MI to northwest OH vicinity, where elevated buoyancy will be greater. This area will be monitored in later outlooks for a possible hail-driven level 1-MRGL risk. ...West... The amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland. The initially meridional and intense mid-level jet east-southeast of the low will weaken as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the south Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and weaker across the Northwest relative to Friday, lowering confidence in highlighting any appreciable severe threat. Low-topped, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central CA, with additional isolated thunderstorms possible from north CA to the northern Rockies. ..Grams.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more