Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the D1 Elevated area further west into west-central Nebraska to account for latest trends. 12z HREF guidance indicates high confidence in sustained Elevated meteorological conditions by the afternoon. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to carry fire spread, supporting the inclusion of the area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a large swath of the central Plains this afternoon. ...northern Oklahoma to southern South Dakota... 06 UTC surface observations show strengthening northwesterly winds behind a cold front across the northern Plains. This cold advection regime will persist into the afternoon, and despite an influx of cooler temperatures, diurnal heating of a dry air mass will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph) should support widespread, sustained elevated conditions with localized areas of critical fire weather conditions - especially across eastern NE/KS where winds in the 850-700 mb layer are forecast to be strongest. Recent fuel reports and precipitation analyses continue to suggest that fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support the fire weather concern. ...Eastern New Mexico to Southwest Texas... Localized elevated conditions are possible this afternoon on the lee side of more prominent terrain features across eastern NM into Southwest TX. A modest westerly flow regime will promote areas of downslope warming/drying with pockets of afternoon RH minimums in the 15-20% range and 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WV...EASTERN OH...SOUTHWEST PA...FAR NORTHEAST KY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon into tonight. Scattered damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some forecast uncertainty persists in the short term regarding the magnitude of today's severe risk, largely attributable to persistent cloud cover, scattered warm sector showers/thunderstorms, with a broken overcast still prevailing at midday, even with a northeastward-expanding dry slot per water vapor imagery. While there are thermodynamic uncertainties and potential limitations, will continue to defer to favorable aspects of strengthening 1-2 km southerly winds and the steady deepening phase of the surface cyclone across the Ohio Valley. It generally appears that the currently depicted risks areas still largely reflect the relatively highest probability corridor for severe storms across the upper Ohio River Valley and Allegheny Plateau vicinity. Weak instability coupled with some enlargement of the hodograph can regionally support an environment in which discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters evolve into supercells. A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail. ...Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas... A less focused and less certain severe risk appears to exist across the region. Cloud cover remains prevalent at midday coincident with low-level upslope flow, although some clearing is noted early this afternoon across the southern Appalachians vicinity. Where modest destabilization does occur this afternoon, long hodographs would conditionally support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, particularly near the mountains/Blue Ridge, with a lower probability/lesser anticipated storm coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva. ...Florida... A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move inland this afternoon across the western and northern Florida Peninsula. Ahead of this convection, warming boundary temperatures with dewpoints around 70F, beneath a likely lingering of capping aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates (12z observed sounding from Tampa Bay), is supporting MLCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg. Strong/veering wind profiles will support severe storms including some embedded supercells and locally intense clusters capable of tornado/damaging wind risks through at least mid-afternoon, with storm intensity/organization expected to gradually diminish into late afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 04/11/2024 Read more

WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW PIE TO 10 SSW GNV TO 60 ESE SSI. ..GOSS..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC017-019-035-053-057-069-083-101-103-105-107-109-119-127- 111640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CITRUS CLAY FLAGLER HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LAKE MARION PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ452-454-550-GMZ830-850-853-111640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM Read more

WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW PIE TO 10 SSW GNV TO 60 ESE SSI. ..GOSS..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC017-019-035-053-057-069-083-101-103-105-107-109-119-127- 111640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CITRUS CLAY FLAGLER HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LAKE MARION PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ452-454-550-GMZ830-850-853-111640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM Read more

MD 0420 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 104... FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0420 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...northern and central Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 104... Valid 111433Z - 111630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues. SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms continues moving eastward across northern Florida, where local severe-weather risk continues. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a loosely organized band of thunderstorms extending from the southeastern Georgia coast southwestward to the eastern Gulf of Mexico west of Tampa. Storms have remained largely sub-severe despite very favorable deep-layer shear, due to an overall lack of appreciable buoyancy. The 12Z TBW RAOB shows a deeply moist airmass, but very weak lapse rates, with several warm layers that hint at subdued updraft acceleration, confirming the character of convection at this time per radar reflectivity. With that said, filtered heating through high cirrus ahead of the convection has allowed heating to commence, with surface temperatures having risen a few degrees over the past 1 to 2 hours. Continued insolation/heating will allow destabilization eventually permit more unimpeded updrafts, and a corresponding increase in convective intensity/organization, aided by the favorable background kinematic environment. As such, local severe risk -- including isolated tornado potential -- should gradually increase over the next couple of hours. ..Goss.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27768404 28948331 29978264 31038152 31068090 29788094 27888228 27568338 27768404 Read more