Severe Storms

WW 108 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV 142055Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Ohio Western and Northern Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is forecast to develop from eastern Ohio into western and northern Pennsylvania late this afternoon into the evening. The thunderstorms will intensify and the stronger storms will be capable of damaging gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south southwest of Mansfield OH to 10 miles southeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

MD 0437 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108... FOR PART OF EASTERN OH...WESTERN/CENTRAL PA...NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0437 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0834 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Areas affected...Part of eastern OH...western/central PA...northern WV Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108... Valid 150134Z - 150300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and damaging wind continues, but should gradually diminish with time later tonight. DISCUSSION...A persistent storm cluster continues to backbuild across far eastern OH into western PA this evening, aided by a feed of modest low-level moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on regional 00Z soundings). Deep-layer flow/shear remains sufficient for organized convection, and a couple of transient supercells have been noted this evening within the broader storm cluster. Large hail will continue to be a threat with the stronger cells near the western edge of the storm cluster, where a somewhat more discrete mode can be maintained. Rather strong low-level flow within a remnant well-mixed boundary layer will also continue to support a threat of isolated damaging gusts. With time, nocturnal cooling/stabilization will result in storms becoming increasingly elevated, with continued convection tending to deplete remaining MUCAPE (as has already occurred farther east). However, in the short term, some severe threat will spread southeastward in conjunction with the primary outflow boundary. Continued redevelopment of convection is also possible into northeast OH, where steep midlevel lapse rates could support an isolated hail threat into late evening. ..Dean.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 40288172 40488206 40828236 41138228 41168222 41258177 41268071 41207770 41117753 40767724 40357743 40177818 40087948 40158143 40288172 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NORTHERN WESTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity will move southward toward Virginia and the Atlantic Coast tonight, while weakening. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threat, though a tornado or two will remain possible this evening. ...01z Update... The ongoing linear cluster of storms currently located across eastern OH into central PA have produced numerous reports of hail and damaging winds this evening. Generally, the intensity of these storms has decreased as diurnal heating has waned and storms have moved into a drier environment farther south. A slow weakening trend is expected to continue into the evening as the cold front sags south and the air mass stabilizes. However, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear should remain sufficient for damaging gusts and some hail, especially with storms training on the western edge of the ongoing complex. These storms are expected to move south, while weakening, across western/central PA and into northern WV/VA tonight. Given the relatively high observed cloud bases, the tornado risk is appreciably lower, though strong low-level shear may still support a brief spin up with the more organized storms. Storm development will remain possible along western portions of the front and the trailing outflow into central and northeastern OH tonight. However, confidence in storm coverage here is low owing to modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent. Will maintain MRGL/SLGT probabilities here for hail and damaging winds. The main update to the outlook was to remove the Level-3 ENH, and trim higher probabilities from the north and west where the front and convection have moved farther south. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NORTHERN WESTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity will move southward toward Virginia and the Atlantic Coast tonight, while weakening. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threat, though a tornado or two will remain possible this evening. ...01z Update... The ongoing linear cluster of storms currently located across eastern OH into central PA have produced numerous reports of hail and damaging winds this evening. Generally, the intensity of these storms has decreased as diurnal heating has waned and storms have moved into a drier environment farther south. A slow weakening trend is expected to continue into the evening as the cold front sags south and the air mass stabilizes. However, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear should remain sufficient for damaging gusts and some hail, especially with storms training on the western edge of the ongoing complex. These storms are expected to move south, while weakening, across western/central PA and into northern WV/VA tonight. Given the relatively high observed cloud bases, the tornado risk is appreciably lower, though strong low-level shear may still support a brief spin up with the more organized storms. Storm development will remain possible along western portions of the front and the trailing outflow into central and northeastern OH tonight. However, confidence in storm coverage here is low owing to modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent. Will maintain MRGL/SLGT probabilities here for hail and damaging winds. The main update to the outlook was to remove the Level-3 ENH, and trim higher probabilities from the north and west where the front and convection have moved farther south. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NORTHERN WESTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity will move southward toward Virginia and the Atlantic Coast tonight, while weakening. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threat, though a tornado or two will remain possible this evening. ...01z Update... The ongoing linear cluster of storms currently located across eastern OH into central PA have produced numerous reports of hail and damaging winds this evening. Generally, the intensity of these storms has decreased as diurnal heating has waned and storms have moved into a drier environment farther south. A slow weakening trend is expected to continue into the evening as the cold front sags south and the air mass stabilizes. However, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear should remain sufficient for damaging gusts and some hail, especially with storms training on the western edge of the ongoing complex. These storms are expected to move south, while weakening, across western/central PA and into northern WV/VA tonight. Given the relatively high observed cloud bases, the tornado risk is appreciably lower, though strong low-level shear may still support a brief spin up with the more organized storms. Storm development will remain possible along western portions of the front and the trailing outflow into central and northeastern OH tonight. However, confidence in storm coverage here is low owing to modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent. Will maintain MRGL/SLGT probabilities here for hail and damaging winds. The main update to the outlook was to remove the Level-3 ENH, and trim higher probabilities from the north and west where the front and convection have moved farther south. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NORTHERN WESTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity will move southward toward Virginia and the Atlantic Coast tonight, while weakening. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threat, though a tornado or two will remain possible this evening. ...01z Update... The ongoing linear cluster of storms currently located across eastern OH into central PA have produced numerous reports of hail and damaging winds this evening. Generally, the intensity of these storms has decreased as diurnal heating has waned and storms have moved into a drier environment farther south. A slow weakening trend is expected to continue into the evening as the cold front sags south and the air mass stabilizes. However, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear should remain sufficient for damaging gusts and some hail, especially with storms training on the western edge of the ongoing complex. These storms are expected to move south, while weakening, across western/central PA and into northern WV/VA tonight. Given the relatively high observed cloud bases, the tornado risk is appreciably lower, though strong low-level shear may still support a brief spin up with the more organized storms. Storm development will remain possible along western portions of the front and the trailing outflow into central and northeastern OH tonight. However, confidence in storm coverage here is low owing to modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent. Will maintain MRGL/SLGT probabilities here for hail and damaging winds. The main update to the outlook was to remove the Level-3 ENH, and trim higher probabilities from the north and west where the front and convection have moved farther south. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NORTHERN WESTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity will move southward toward Virginia and the Atlantic Coast tonight, while weakening. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threat, though a tornado or two will remain possible this evening. ...01z Update... The ongoing linear cluster of storms currently located across eastern OH into central PA have produced numerous reports of hail and damaging winds this evening. Generally, the intensity of these storms has decreased as diurnal heating has waned and storms have moved into a drier environment farther south. A slow weakening trend is expected to continue into the evening as the cold front sags south and the air mass stabilizes. However, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear should remain sufficient for damaging gusts and some hail, especially with storms training on the western edge of the ongoing complex. These storms are expected to move south, while weakening, across western/central PA and into northern WV/VA tonight. Given the relatively high observed cloud bases, the tornado risk is appreciably lower, though strong low-level shear may still support a brief spin up with the more organized storms. Storm development will remain possible along western portions of the front and the trailing outflow into central and northeastern OH tonight. However, confidence in storm coverage here is low owing to modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent. Will maintain MRGL/SLGT probabilities here for hail and damaging winds. The main update to the outlook was to remove the Level-3 ENH, and trim higher probabilities from the north and west where the front and convection have moved farther south. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW MFD TO 15 SSW FKL TO 25 E DUJ TO 20 WSW IPT TO 25 NW ABE. ..MOORE..04/15/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-083-099-103-111-117-119- 121-133-139-151-153-157-169-150140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-051-059-061-063-065- 067-073-087-097-109-111-119-125-129-150140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CENTRE CLARION Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW MFD TO 15 SSW FKL TO 25 E DUJ TO 20 WSW IPT TO 25 NW ABE. ..MOORE..04/15/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-083-099-103-111-117-119- 121-133-139-151-153-157-169-150140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-051-059-061-063-065- 067-073-087-097-109-111-119-125-129-150140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CENTRE CLARION Read more

MD 0436 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108... FOR EASTERN OH INTO MUCH OF PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0436 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern OH into much of PA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108... Valid 142246Z - 150015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm wind gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated severe hail remain possible this evening. DISCUSSION...Despite limited low-level moisture, seasonably strong diurnal heating beneath cold temperatures aloft has resulted in the development of extensive deep convection from northeast OH into much of northern PA. The strongest storms are ongoing this evening across western PA, where somewhat more favorable low-level moisture (coincident with a cumulus field across northeast OH) is feeding in from the west. A 68 mph gust at KYNG was noted earlier, and a combination of relatively strong low-level flow and a deep, well-mixed boundary later will continue to support a threat of wind gusts of up to 60-70 mph through early evening. Steep lapse rates will continue to support an isolated hail threat, especially with storms ongoing along the western end of the ongoing QLCS, where somewhat greater instability in place and there will be less of a tendency for storm interference. Some backbuilding into eastern OH will be possible over the next 1-2 hours, before nocturnal cooling/stabilization begins to diminish the threat. Farther east into central/eastern PA, instability is somewhat weaker, but a threat for damaging winds will accompany the strongest storms, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurred earlier today. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening, but some threat for localized damaging winds will persist for as long as vigorous convection (and its related outflow) can be sustained as it moves east-southeastward. Depending on convective trends, local extension of WW 108 may be needed, but additional downstream watch issuance currently appears unlikely. ..Dean.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41318148 41117892 41547615 41527572 41217543 40807547 40297815 40257981 40308068 40468149 40618165 41318148 Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MFD TO 10 W YNG TO 5 ESE FKL TO 10 ENE DUJ TO 25 WSW IPT TO 25 S MSV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436 ..MOORE..04/14/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-083-099-103-111-117-119- 121-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-150040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-037-051-059-061-063- 065-067-073-079-085-087-093-097-109-111-119-125-129-150040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER Read more

WW 108 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV 142055Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Ohio Western and Northern Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is forecast to develop from eastern Ohio into western and northern Pennsylvania late this afternoon into the evening. The thunderstorms will intensify and the stronger storms will be capable of damaging gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south southwest of Mansfield OH to 10 miles southeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

MD 0436 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108... FOR EASTERN OH INTO MUCH OF PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0436 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern OH into much of PA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108... Valid 142246Z - 150015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm wind gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated severe hail remain possible this evening. DISCUSSION...Despite limited low-level moisture, seasonably strong diurnal heating beneath cold temperatures aloft has resulted in the development of extensive deep convection from northeast OH into much of northern PA. The strongest storms are ongoing this evening across western PA, where somewhat more favorable low-level moisture (coincident with a cumulus field across northeast OH) is feeding in from the west. A 68 mph gust at KYNG was noted earlier, and a combination of relatively strong low-level flow and a deep, well-mixed boundary later will continue to support a threat of wind gusts of up to 60-70 mph through early evening. Steep lapse rates will continue to support an isolated hail threat, especially with storms ongoing along the western end of the ongoing QLCS, where somewhat greater instability in place and there will be less of a tendency for storm interference. Some backbuilding into eastern OH will be possible over the next 1-2 hours, before nocturnal cooling/stabilization begins to diminish the threat. Farther east into central/eastern PA, instability is somewhat weaker, but a threat for damaging winds will accompany the strongest storms, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurred earlier today. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening, but some threat for localized damaging winds will persist for as long as vigorous convection (and its related outflow) can be sustained as it moves east-southeastward. Depending on convective trends, local extension of WW 108 may be needed, but additional downstream watch issuance currently appears unlikely. ..Dean.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41318148 41117892 41547615 41527572 41217543 40807547 40297815 40257981 40308068 40468149 40618165 41318148 Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW MFD TO 15 N YNG TO 15 ESE FKL TO 30 W MSV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436 ..MOORE..04/14/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-083-099-103-111-117-119- 121-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-142340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-035-037-051-059-061- 063-065-067-069-073-079-081-085-087-093-097-109-111-113-119-125- 129-131-142340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 14 22:48:05 UTC 2024.

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW MFD TO 25 E BFD TO 25 ESE ELM. ..MOORE..04/14/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-083-099-103-111-117-119- 121-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-142240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-047-051- 053-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-079-081-085-087-093-097-105-109- 111-113-117-119-121-125-129-131-142240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER Read more

MD 0435 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0435 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Areas affected...portions of central/eastern Ohio into Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 141929Z - 142130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 4-5 pm EDT. Damaging gusts and isolated large hail will the the main hazards with this activity as storms track south-southeast through the evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely by needed in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer moisture has gradually increased through the day across the Upper Ohio Valley into northeast PA, with surface dewpoints now in the mid 40s to low 50s F. Strong heating beneath steep lapse rates is supporting weak destabilization. Deepening cumulus has been noted over Lake Erie into western NY the past hour or so, indicating increasing ascent is overspreading the region. The expectation is that this activity will continue to deepen and potentially become more surface-based with time as it shifts southward into OH/PA over the next few hours. Initial cells will likely quickly develop into linear segments given unidirectional flow, which is also parallel to a south/southeastward-advancing surface cold front. Given steep low-level lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture, damaging gusts are expected. Furthermore, steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft will support isolated large hail, especially with any convection that remains cellular/semi-discrete. Some improvement of low-level shear is expected with time, resulting in somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs. This may support a tornado or two, but marginal low-level moisture will limit the overall tornado risk. ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 40768277 41258110 41947686 42107557 41887519 41547500 41027539 40697604 40377712 39857919 39768057 39748213 39978271 40358292 40638290 40768277 Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0108 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A potent shortwave trough in the central Plains will be in the process of lifting northeastward and weakening on Tuesday/Wednesday. Another broad trough will move through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast through the remainder of the week. Flow aloft within the southern half of the CONUS will generally become more zonal with time. Models suggest a more amplified pattern may develop by next weekend. At the surface, the initial trough/surface cyclone will push a relatively weak cold front through parts of the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. A secondary push of cooler air is possible late next week with some suggestion that the front will reach the Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday on the back side of the initial trough/surface cyclone. Winds will tend to weaken during the day as the cyclone moves farther north and east. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Some fire weather concerns are also possible on Wednesday as a weak lee cyclone develops within the zonal flow regime across the Divide. The most likely area for low-end concerns would be northeastern New Mexico. Given the weaker synoptic features, potential for critical fire weather is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A potent shortwave trough in the central Plains will be in the process of lifting northeastward and weakening on Tuesday/Wednesday. Another broad trough will move through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast through the remainder of the week. Flow aloft within the southern half of the CONUS will generally become more zonal with time. Models suggest a more amplified pattern may develop by next weekend. At the surface, the initial trough/surface cyclone will push a relatively weak cold front through parts of the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. A secondary push of cooler air is possible late next week with some suggestion that the front will reach the Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday on the back side of the initial trough/surface cyclone. Winds will tend to weaken during the day as the cyclone moves farther north and east. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Some fire weather concerns are also possible on Wednesday as a weak lee cyclone develops within the zonal flow regime across the Divide. The most likely area for low-end concerns would be northeastern New Mexico. Given the weaker synoptic features, potential for critical fire weather is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more