Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly this evening and into tonight. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. More isolated severe storms are also possible over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for mainly damaging winds and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the western Great Basin is forecast to amplify considerably as it begins to phase with an increasingly strong mid-level subtropical jet located over the Southwestern US. Early morning WV imagery and RAOBS show this jet is currently moving out of northern MEX into southern AZ and NM. As the upper low and jet amplify, they will move eastward and spread broad-scale ascent over much of the southern and central High Plains late in the diurnal cycle. At the same time, a subtle mid-level perturbation east of the building central US ridge will move south overspreading a modestly warm air mass near a slowly sagging cold front in the Mid Atlantic. An initially diffuse lee trough/weak cyclone is forecast to quickly consolidate and deepen below 1000 mb over eastern CO and western NE by late afternoon. Large-scale mass response from the approaching trough and deepening low will aid in advecting a fairly broad and increasingly moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) modified Gulf air mass northward, east of a sharp dryline. While some uncertainty exists regarding convective initiation owing to the late arrival of large-scale ascent, mid and high-level cloud cover and capping, scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible over much of the Plains. Isolated storms are also possible over parts of the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for damaging gusts. ...Central Plains Triple Point/Warm Front... A well defined warm front is expected to mark the northern edge of the ongoing moisture return near the KS/NE border at 12z. As the surface cyclone to the west begins to deepen, the warm front should lift northward into central NE and southern SD by mid afternoon. Strong low-level moisture advection and sheltering by mid and high-level clouds should allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to pool near the front ahead of a subtle shortwave trough on the eastern periphery of the approaching upper low. Diurnal heating and forcing for ascent from the approaching shortwave should allow for removal of remaining inhibition by mid to late afternoon near and along the warm front and closer to the triple point. Mid-level lapse rates near 8-8.5 C/km and cool mid-level temps will support moderate buoyancy with large clockwise curved hodographs. Initial supercells are likely with the potential for large to very large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible given large low-level buoyancy and enhanced low-level SRH along the warm front. ...Central and southern Plains Dryline... Considerable uncertainty exists regarding diurnal convective development east of the dryline. Mid and high-level cloud cover from the active subtropical jet may stunt daytime heating/mixing while the later arrival of the main upper-low will limit large-scale ascent. With a stout EML in place, it is unclear if subtle ascent from embedded perturbations within the subtropical jet and the dryline circulation will support convective development from western KS and OK into the TX Panhandle during the day. CAM guidance suggests a few storms may develop farther south in west/western North TX within the deeply mixed air mass. With increasingly strong wind fields in place these storms would likely be supercellular with large to very large hail and the potential for a couple tornadoes. Additional development appears likely later in the evening and into the overnight hours as a Pacific front moves east and intersects with the retreating dryline. Uncertainty remains high with various model solutions, but higher probabilities of convective development appear likely across western and central KS with mid-level height falls and strong tropospheric flow fields increasing overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. ...Ohio Valley into VA and NC... Weak height falls from the subtle trough are expected to move over Mid Atlantic by early to mid afternoon timed with peak heating and modest boundary-layer moisture return. Weak surface convergence along a sagging cold front and surrounding terrain should be sufficient to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon across the central OH Valley into eastern WV and northern VA. Ahead of the front, potentially low 50s F surface dewpoints and mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with moderately strong mid and upper-level flow. Several bands or clusters of storms are expected to develop and may pose a risk for isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts as they track east/southeast into the evening hours. The threat should gradually diminish after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Lyons/Kerr.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly this evening and into tonight. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. More isolated severe storms are also possible over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for mainly damaging winds and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the western Great Basin is forecast to amplify considerably as it begins to phase with an increasingly strong mid-level subtropical jet located over the Southwestern US. Early morning WV imagery and RAOBS show this jet is currently moving out of northern MEX into southern AZ and NM. As the upper low and jet amplify, they will move eastward and spread broad-scale ascent over much of the southern and central High Plains late in the diurnal cycle. At the same time, a subtle mid-level perturbation east of the building central US ridge will move south overspreading a modestly warm air mass near a slowly sagging cold front in the Mid Atlantic. An initially diffuse lee trough/weak cyclone is forecast to quickly consolidate and deepen below 1000 mb over eastern CO and western NE by late afternoon. Large-scale mass response from the approaching trough and deepening low will aid in advecting a fairly broad and increasingly moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) modified Gulf air mass northward, east of a sharp dryline. While some uncertainty exists regarding convective initiation owing to the late arrival of large-scale ascent, mid and high-level cloud cover and capping, scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible over much of the Plains. Isolated storms are also possible over parts of the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for damaging gusts. ...Central Plains Triple Point/Warm Front... A well defined warm front is expected to mark the northern edge of the ongoing moisture return near the KS/NE border at 12z. As the surface cyclone to the west begins to deepen, the warm front should lift northward into central NE and southern SD by mid afternoon. Strong low-level moisture advection and sheltering by mid and high-level clouds should allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to pool near the front ahead of a subtle shortwave trough on the eastern periphery of the approaching upper low. Diurnal heating and forcing for ascent from the approaching shortwave should allow for removal of remaining inhibition by mid to late afternoon near and along the warm front and closer to the triple point. Mid-level lapse rates near 8-8.5 C/km and cool mid-level temps will support moderate buoyancy with large clockwise curved hodographs. Initial supercells are likely with the potential for large to very large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible given large low-level buoyancy and enhanced low-level SRH along the warm front. ...Central and southern Plains Dryline... Considerable uncertainty exists regarding diurnal convective development east of the dryline. Mid and high-level cloud cover from the active subtropical jet may stunt daytime heating/mixing while the later arrival of the main upper-low will limit large-scale ascent. With a stout EML in place, it is unclear if subtle ascent from embedded perturbations within the subtropical jet and the dryline circulation will support convective development from western KS and OK into the TX Panhandle during the day. CAM guidance suggests a few storms may develop farther south in west/western North TX within the deeply mixed air mass. With increasingly strong wind fields in place these storms would likely be supercellular with large to very large hail and the potential for a couple tornadoes. Additional development appears likely later in the evening and into the overnight hours as a Pacific front moves east and intersects with the retreating dryline. Uncertainty remains high with various model solutions, but higher probabilities of convective development appear likely across western and central KS with mid-level height falls and strong tropospheric flow fields increasing overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. ...Ohio Valley into VA and NC... Weak height falls from the subtle trough are expected to move over Mid Atlantic by early to mid afternoon timed with peak heating and modest boundary-layer moisture return. Weak surface convergence along a sagging cold front and surrounding terrain should be sufficient to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon across the central OH Valley into eastern WV and northern VA. Ahead of the front, potentially low 50s F surface dewpoints and mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with moderately strong mid and upper-level flow. Several bands or clusters of storms are expected to develop and may pose a risk for isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts as they track east/southeast into the evening hours. The threat should gradually diminish after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Lyons/Kerr.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly this evening and into tonight. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. More isolated severe storms are also possible over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for mainly damaging winds and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the western Great Basin is forecast to amplify considerably as it begins to phase with an increasingly strong mid-level subtropical jet located over the Southwestern US. Early morning WV imagery and RAOBS show this jet is currently moving out of northern MEX into southern AZ and NM. As the upper low and jet amplify, they will move eastward and spread broad-scale ascent over much of the southern and central High Plains late in the diurnal cycle. At the same time, a subtle mid-level perturbation east of the building central US ridge will move south overspreading a modestly warm air mass near a slowly sagging cold front in the Mid Atlantic. An initially diffuse lee trough/weak cyclone is forecast to quickly consolidate and deepen below 1000 mb over eastern CO and western NE by late afternoon. Large-scale mass response from the approaching trough and deepening low will aid in advecting a fairly broad and increasingly moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) modified Gulf air mass northward, east of a sharp dryline. While some uncertainty exists regarding convective initiation owing to the late arrival of large-scale ascent, mid and high-level cloud cover and capping, scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible over much of the Plains. Isolated storms are also possible over parts of the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for damaging gusts. ...Central Plains Triple Point/Warm Front... A well defined warm front is expected to mark the northern edge of the ongoing moisture return near the KS/NE border at 12z. As the surface cyclone to the west begins to deepen, the warm front should lift northward into central NE and southern SD by mid afternoon. Strong low-level moisture advection and sheltering by mid and high-level clouds should allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to pool near the front ahead of a subtle shortwave trough on the eastern periphery of the approaching upper low. Diurnal heating and forcing for ascent from the approaching shortwave should allow for removal of remaining inhibition by mid to late afternoon near and along the warm front and closer to the triple point. Mid-level lapse rates near 8-8.5 C/km and cool mid-level temps will support moderate buoyancy with large clockwise curved hodographs. Initial supercells are likely with the potential for large to very large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible given large low-level buoyancy and enhanced low-level SRH along the warm front. ...Central and southern Plains Dryline... Considerable uncertainty exists regarding diurnal convective development east of the dryline. Mid and high-level cloud cover from the active subtropical jet may stunt daytime heating/mixing while the later arrival of the main upper-low will limit large-scale ascent. With a stout EML in place, it is unclear if subtle ascent from embedded perturbations within the subtropical jet and the dryline circulation will support convective development from western KS and OK into the TX Panhandle during the day. CAM guidance suggests a few storms may develop farther south in west/western North TX within the deeply mixed air mass. With increasingly strong wind fields in place these storms would likely be supercellular with large to very large hail and the potential for a couple tornadoes. Additional development appears likely later in the evening and into the overnight hours as a Pacific front moves east and intersects with the retreating dryline. Uncertainty remains high with various model solutions, but higher probabilities of convective development appear likely across western and central KS with mid-level height falls and strong tropospheric flow fields increasing overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. ...Ohio Valley into VA and NC... Weak height falls from the subtle trough are expected to move over Mid Atlantic by early to mid afternoon timed with peak heating and modest boundary-layer moisture return. Weak surface convergence along a sagging cold front and surrounding terrain should be sufficient to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon across the central OH Valley into eastern WV and northern VA. Ahead of the front, potentially low 50s F surface dewpoints and mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with moderately strong mid and upper-level flow. Several bands or clusters of storms are expected to develop and may pose a risk for isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts as they track east/southeast into the evening hours. The threat should gradually diminish after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Lyons/Kerr.. 04/15/2024 Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW MFD TO 15 N CAK TO 20 NNW UNV TO 10 NE UNV TO 20 ESE MGW. WW 108 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150300Z DEPENDING ON SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437 ..DEAN..04/15/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-099-111-119-121-151-157-169- 150300- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON MAHONING MONROE MUSKINGUM NOBLE STARK TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-051-059-063-065-073- 111-125-129-150300- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER Read more

WW 108 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV 142055Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Ohio Western and Northern Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is forecast to develop from eastern Ohio into western and northern Pennsylvania late this afternoon into the evening. The thunderstorms will intensify and the stronger storms will be capable of damaging gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south southwest of Mansfield OH to 10 miles southeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

MD 0437 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108... FOR PART OF EASTERN OH...WESTERN/CENTRAL PA...NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0437 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0834 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Areas affected...Part of eastern OH...western/central PA...northern WV Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108... Valid 150134Z - 150300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and damaging wind continues, but should gradually diminish with time later tonight. DISCUSSION...A persistent storm cluster continues to backbuild across far eastern OH into western PA this evening, aided by a feed of modest low-level moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on regional 00Z soundings). Deep-layer flow/shear remains sufficient for organized convection, and a couple of transient supercells have been noted this evening within the broader storm cluster. Large hail will continue to be a threat with the stronger cells near the western edge of the storm cluster, where a somewhat more discrete mode can be maintained. Rather strong low-level flow within a remnant well-mixed boundary layer will also continue to support a threat of isolated damaging gusts. With time, nocturnal cooling/stabilization will result in storms becoming increasingly elevated, with continued convection tending to deplete remaining MUCAPE (as has already occurred farther east). However, in the short term, some severe threat will spread southeastward in conjunction with the primary outflow boundary. Continued redevelopment of convection is also possible into northeast OH, where steep midlevel lapse rates could support an isolated hail threat into late evening. ..Dean.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 40288172 40488206 40828236 41138228 41168222 41258177 41268071 41207770 41117753 40767724 40357743 40177818 40087948 40158143 40288172 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NORTHERN WESTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity will move southward toward Virginia and the Atlantic Coast tonight, while weakening. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threat, though a tornado or two will remain possible this evening. ...01z Update... The ongoing linear cluster of storms currently located across eastern OH into central PA have produced numerous reports of hail and damaging winds this evening. Generally, the intensity of these storms has decreased as diurnal heating has waned and storms have moved into a drier environment farther south. A slow weakening trend is expected to continue into the evening as the cold front sags south and the air mass stabilizes. However, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear should remain sufficient for damaging gusts and some hail, especially with storms training on the western edge of the ongoing complex. These storms are expected to move south, while weakening, across western/central PA and into northern WV/VA tonight. Given the relatively high observed cloud bases, the tornado risk is appreciably lower, though strong low-level shear may still support a brief spin up with the more organized storms. Storm development will remain possible along western portions of the front and the trailing outflow into central and northeastern OH tonight. However, confidence in storm coverage here is low owing to modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent. Will maintain MRGL/SLGT probabilities here for hail and damaging winds. The main update to the outlook was to remove the Level-3 ENH, and trim higher probabilities from the north and west where the front and convection have moved farther south. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NORTHERN WESTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity will move southward toward Virginia and the Atlantic Coast tonight, while weakening. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threat, though a tornado or two will remain possible this evening. ...01z Update... The ongoing linear cluster of storms currently located across eastern OH into central PA have produced numerous reports of hail and damaging winds this evening. Generally, the intensity of these storms has decreased as diurnal heating has waned and storms have moved into a drier environment farther south. A slow weakening trend is expected to continue into the evening as the cold front sags south and the air mass stabilizes. However, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear should remain sufficient for damaging gusts and some hail, especially with storms training on the western edge of the ongoing complex. These storms are expected to move south, while weakening, across western/central PA and into northern WV/VA tonight. Given the relatively high observed cloud bases, the tornado risk is appreciably lower, though strong low-level shear may still support a brief spin up with the more organized storms. Storm development will remain possible along western portions of the front and the trailing outflow into central and northeastern OH tonight. However, confidence in storm coverage here is low owing to modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent. Will maintain MRGL/SLGT probabilities here for hail and damaging winds. The main update to the outlook was to remove the Level-3 ENH, and trim higher probabilities from the north and west where the front and convection have moved farther south. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NORTHERN WESTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity will move southward toward Virginia and the Atlantic Coast tonight, while weakening. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threat, though a tornado or two will remain possible this evening. ...01z Update... The ongoing linear cluster of storms currently located across eastern OH into central PA have produced numerous reports of hail and damaging winds this evening. Generally, the intensity of these storms has decreased as diurnal heating has waned and storms have moved into a drier environment farther south. A slow weakening trend is expected to continue into the evening as the cold front sags south and the air mass stabilizes. However, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear should remain sufficient for damaging gusts and some hail, especially with storms training on the western edge of the ongoing complex. These storms are expected to move south, while weakening, across western/central PA and into northern WV/VA tonight. Given the relatively high observed cloud bases, the tornado risk is appreciably lower, though strong low-level shear may still support a brief spin up with the more organized storms. Storm development will remain possible along western portions of the front and the trailing outflow into central and northeastern OH tonight. However, confidence in storm coverage here is low owing to modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent. Will maintain MRGL/SLGT probabilities here for hail and damaging winds. The main update to the outlook was to remove the Level-3 ENH, and trim higher probabilities from the north and west where the front and convection have moved farther south. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NORTHERN WESTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity will move southward toward Virginia and the Atlantic Coast tonight, while weakening. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threat, though a tornado or two will remain possible this evening. ...01z Update... The ongoing linear cluster of storms currently located across eastern OH into central PA have produced numerous reports of hail and damaging winds this evening. Generally, the intensity of these storms has decreased as diurnal heating has waned and storms have moved into a drier environment farther south. A slow weakening trend is expected to continue into the evening as the cold front sags south and the air mass stabilizes. However, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear should remain sufficient for damaging gusts and some hail, especially with storms training on the western edge of the ongoing complex. These storms are expected to move south, while weakening, across western/central PA and into northern WV/VA tonight. Given the relatively high observed cloud bases, the tornado risk is appreciably lower, though strong low-level shear may still support a brief spin up with the more organized storms. Storm development will remain possible along western portions of the front and the trailing outflow into central and northeastern OH tonight. However, confidence in storm coverage here is low owing to modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent. Will maintain MRGL/SLGT probabilities here for hail and damaging winds. The main update to the outlook was to remove the Level-3 ENH, and trim higher probabilities from the north and west where the front and convection have moved farther south. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NORTHERN WESTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and vicinity will move southward toward Virginia and the Atlantic Coast tonight, while weakening. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threat, though a tornado or two will remain possible this evening. ...01z Update... The ongoing linear cluster of storms currently located across eastern OH into central PA have produced numerous reports of hail and damaging winds this evening. Generally, the intensity of these storms has decreased as diurnal heating has waned and storms have moved into a drier environment farther south. A slow weakening trend is expected to continue into the evening as the cold front sags south and the air mass stabilizes. However, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear should remain sufficient for damaging gusts and some hail, especially with storms training on the western edge of the ongoing complex. These storms are expected to move south, while weakening, across western/central PA and into northern WV/VA tonight. Given the relatively high observed cloud bases, the tornado risk is appreciably lower, though strong low-level shear may still support a brief spin up with the more organized storms. Storm development will remain possible along western portions of the front and the trailing outflow into central and northeastern OH tonight. However, confidence in storm coverage here is low owing to modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent. Will maintain MRGL/SLGT probabilities here for hail and damaging winds. The main update to the outlook was to remove the Level-3 ENH, and trim higher probabilities from the north and west where the front and convection have moved farther south. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW MFD TO 15 SSW FKL TO 25 E DUJ TO 20 WSW IPT TO 25 NW ABE. ..MOORE..04/15/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-083-099-103-111-117-119- 121-133-139-151-153-157-169-150140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-051-059-061-063-065- 067-073-087-097-109-111-119-125-129-150140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CENTRE CLARION Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW MFD TO 15 SSW FKL TO 25 E DUJ TO 20 WSW IPT TO 25 NW ABE. ..MOORE..04/15/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-083-099-103-111-117-119- 121-133-139-151-153-157-169-150140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-051-059-061-063-065- 067-073-087-097-109-111-119-125-129-150140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CENTRE CLARION Read more

MD 0436 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108... FOR EASTERN OH INTO MUCH OF PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0436 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern OH into much of PA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108... Valid 142246Z - 150015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm wind gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated severe hail remain possible this evening. DISCUSSION...Despite limited low-level moisture, seasonably strong diurnal heating beneath cold temperatures aloft has resulted in the development of extensive deep convection from northeast OH into much of northern PA. The strongest storms are ongoing this evening across western PA, where somewhat more favorable low-level moisture (coincident with a cumulus field across northeast OH) is feeding in from the west. A 68 mph gust at KYNG was noted earlier, and a combination of relatively strong low-level flow and a deep, well-mixed boundary later will continue to support a threat of wind gusts of up to 60-70 mph through early evening. Steep lapse rates will continue to support an isolated hail threat, especially with storms ongoing along the western end of the ongoing QLCS, where somewhat greater instability in place and there will be less of a tendency for storm interference. Some backbuilding into eastern OH will be possible over the next 1-2 hours, before nocturnal cooling/stabilization begins to diminish the threat. Farther east into central/eastern PA, instability is somewhat weaker, but a threat for damaging winds will accompany the strongest storms, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurred earlier today. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening, but some threat for localized damaging winds will persist for as long as vigorous convection (and its related outflow) can be sustained as it moves east-southeastward. Depending on convective trends, local extension of WW 108 may be needed, but additional downstream watch issuance currently appears unlikely. ..Dean.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41318148 41117892 41547615 41527572 41217543 40807547 40297815 40257981 40308068 40468149 40618165 41318148 Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MFD TO 10 W YNG TO 5 ESE FKL TO 10 ENE DUJ TO 25 WSW IPT TO 25 S MSV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436 ..MOORE..04/14/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-083-099-103-111-117-119- 121-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-150040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-037-051-059-061-063- 065-067-073-079-085-087-093-097-109-111-119-125-129-150040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER Read more

WW 108 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV 142055Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Ohio Western and Northern Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is forecast to develop from eastern Ohio into western and northern Pennsylvania late this afternoon into the evening. The thunderstorms will intensify and the stronger storms will be capable of damaging gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south southwest of Mansfield OH to 10 miles southeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

MD 0436 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108... FOR EASTERN OH INTO MUCH OF PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0436 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern OH into much of PA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108... Valid 142246Z - 150015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm wind gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated severe hail remain possible this evening. DISCUSSION...Despite limited low-level moisture, seasonably strong diurnal heating beneath cold temperatures aloft has resulted in the development of extensive deep convection from northeast OH into much of northern PA. The strongest storms are ongoing this evening across western PA, where somewhat more favorable low-level moisture (coincident with a cumulus field across northeast OH) is feeding in from the west. A 68 mph gust at KYNG was noted earlier, and a combination of relatively strong low-level flow and a deep, well-mixed boundary later will continue to support a threat of wind gusts of up to 60-70 mph through early evening. Steep lapse rates will continue to support an isolated hail threat, especially with storms ongoing along the western end of the ongoing QLCS, where somewhat greater instability in place and there will be less of a tendency for storm interference. Some backbuilding into eastern OH will be possible over the next 1-2 hours, before nocturnal cooling/stabilization begins to diminish the threat. Farther east into central/eastern PA, instability is somewhat weaker, but a threat for damaging winds will accompany the strongest storms, especially in areas where stronger heating/mixing occurred earlier today. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening, but some threat for localized damaging winds will persist for as long as vigorous convection (and its related outflow) can be sustained as it moves east-southeastward. Depending on convective trends, local extension of WW 108 may be needed, but additional downstream watch issuance currently appears unlikely. ..Dean.. 04/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41318148 41117892 41547615 41527572 41217543 40807547 40297815 40257981 40308068 40468149 40618165 41318148 Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW MFD TO 15 N YNG TO 15 ESE FKL TO 30 W MSV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436 ..MOORE..04/14/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-083-099-103-111-117-119- 121-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-142340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-027-031-033-035-037-051-059-061- 063-065-067-069-073-079-081-085-087-093-097-109-111-113-119-125- 129-131-142340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 14 22:48:05 UTC 2024.

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW MFD TO 25 E BFD TO 25 ESE ELM. ..MOORE..04/14/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...BGM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 108 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-059-067-075-081-083-099-103-111-117-119- 121-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-142240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-009-013-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-047-051- 053-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-079-081-085-087-093-097-105-109- 111-113-117-119-121-125-129-131-142240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER Read more