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SPC Mar 14, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 4 months ago

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH TEXAS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected from parts of north-central Texas into the Midwest and Mid-South. The greatest overall severe threat still appears to be across eastern Oklahoma and far North Texas to the Ozarks. ...Missouri eastward into Kentucky/Indiana/Ohio... A complex scenario is unfolding for today, given rather subtle large-scale ascent across much of the area, but with a very favorable background thermodynamic environment coupled with strong deep-layer shear. A line of strong/locally severe storms is ongoing this morning across Indiana, which will continue eastward this afternoon into Ohio. Locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk with these storms, continuing across western Ohio before some weakening eventually occurs given weakening instability with eastward extent into the upper Ohio Valley. In the wake of these storms, but ahead of a sagging cold front, airmass recovery is underway. Clouds have cleared across Illinois and for the most part Missouri as well, ahead of the front and in the wake of earlier storms. Ongoing heating, beneath steep lapse rates aloft, will result in a moderately unstable warm sector this afternoon. CAMs continue to suggest redevelopment of more cellular -- eventually clustered -- convection across this region this afternoon, and eventually (presuming ample airmass recovery can occur) into Indiana and possibly/eventually western Ohio. Though low-level flow behind the initial band of Indiana storms will likely remain somewhat veered, which may limit more substantial tornado risk, very large hail is expected, along with damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. Storms could eventually grow upscale this evening, spreading across the Tennessee Valley region accompanied by continued severe risk. ...North Texas and the eastern half of Oklahoma to the Mid Mississippi Valley area... Storms have developed rapidly over the past hour across portions of far northern Texas and into south-central Oklahoma near the slowly advancing front/dryline, where heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates has resulted in development of 2000 to 2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. With 50 kt mid-level southwesterlies across the region, deep-layer shear is supportive of updraft rotation, and thus associated potential for very large hail, along with locally severe wind gusts. Low-level southerlies are contributing to sufficient shear for a couple of tornadoes late this morning/early this afternoon. However, gradual veering, and some weakening, of the low-level wind field is expected, which should temper tornado risk to some degree. Still, a couple of tornadoes are expected with stronger/sustained supercells. With time, severe/supercell storms will spread eastward across the Ozarks/Arklatex, likely clustering to some degree into this evening, though with supercell structures persisting. Very large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and potential for a couple of tornadoes will continue, eventually reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area. A few CAMs continue to suggest potential for overnight development of storms across portions of central Texas, potential slightly elevated atop of a slightly stable boundary layer. Given sufficient shear and the steep lapse-rate environment, conditional risk for very large hail remains evident. ..Goss/Lyons.. 03/14/2024 Read more