Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

MD 1674 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1674 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Areas affected...central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151748Z - 151945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in coverage near the cold front, with corridors of severe wind gusts possible, along with sporadic hail. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front extending from the Arrowhead southwestward into northeast SD, with a weak surface low over central MN. Weak moisture convergence exists near the front and low, with a moist air mass in place. Continued heating within cloud breaks, and warming via advection out of the south will lead to a long duration deepening moist boundary layer. Storms have already formed over northeast MN into northern WI, where low-level warm advection is currently maximized. A general increase in storms is anticipated extending southwestward later this afternoon, as more of the area becomes fully uncapped. Hail cannot be ruled out with initial cell development, but overall deep-layer shear will remain less than about 30 kt. Activity is expected to merge/elongate along the entire boundary, which will remain mostly parallel to the midlevel winds. With southwest winds around 850 mb, this suggests a line of storms propagating in an east/southeastward direction from late afternoon through early evening. ..Jewell/Smith.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 46139085 45659264 45269407 45159492 45269546 45579558 45919549 46359506 46689452 47169306 47419178 47409122 47289078 47079036 46559035 46139085 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more