Severe Storms

MD 1679 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514... FOR SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1679 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Areas affected...southwestern through northeastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514... Valid 152249Z - 160045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail may be accompanied by increasing downbursts during the next few couple of hours, before gradually organizing and advancing southeastward with a continuing risk for strong to severe gusts through 7-9 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Still generally focused along the pre-frontal surface trough, as it is gradually overtaken by the southward advancing cold front, thunderstorm development continues to increase and intensify. This appears to be occurring beneath the 500 mb cold core (-8 to -10C) of weak mid-level troughing advancing eastward across South Dakota and Nebraska, where southwesterly deep-layer mean flow is a rather modest 10-20 kt. Veering of wind fields with height is contributing to modest shear, however, supportive of widely scattered supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail. Although it will be several more hours before a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet may become an influence across parts of central Nebraska, ongoing storms may pose an increasing risk for downbursts over the next few hours, before outflow begins to conglomerate and the more intense convection becomes focused along the leading edge of southeastward outflow surges through 00-02Z. ..Kerr.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 42300048 42859919 43399847 43729715 42899643 42109680 40869901 40090103 41520203 42300048 Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N IML TO 40 NW BBW TO 25 SE ANW TO 40 NE ONL TO 15 N MHE. ..KERR..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...OAX...LBF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC137-147-160140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NORTON PHILLIPS NEC001-003-009-011-015-019-027-029-037-039-041-043-047-051-061- 063-065-071-073-077-079-083-085-087-089-093-099-101-107-111-113- 115-117-119-121-125-135-137-139-141-145-149-163-167-175-179-183- 160140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE BOYD BUFFALO CEDAR CHASE COLFAX CUMING CUSTER DAKOTA DAWSON DIXON FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GARFIELD GOSPER GREELEY HALL HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK HOLT HOWARD KEARNEY Read more

MD 1678 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 513... FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN. UPPER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1678 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Areas affected...central Minnesota...northern Wisconsin. Upper Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 513... Valid 152210Z - 160015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 513 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for severe wind and occasional severe hail continues within WW513. DISCUSSION...Broken lines of thunderstorm activity continue near the surface cold front across central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and the Upper Michigan Peninsula. Deep layer shear around 20-30 kts is largely parallel to and located near the cold front. As such, some disorganized mainly multi-cell clusters continue to track east-northeastward. South of the cold front, shear decreases but steep low level lapse rates around 8-8.5 C/km and a very warm/unstable air mass will continue to support instances of severe gusts. Some marginally severe hail may be possible near the cold front and in the vicinity of better deep layer shear. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX... LAT...LON 44999520 45339514 45709502 46179465 46509401 46679313 46719232 46769139 46898995 47028937 47138869 46818805 46558796 46038822 45748933 45569037 45099298 44989428 44909498 44999520 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0513 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 513 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE RWF TO 30 NNE ASX. ..THORNTON..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...GRB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 513 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC013-053-061-071-103-131-160040- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARAGA GOGEBIC HOUGHTON IRON MARQUETTE ONTONAGON MNC003-160040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA WIC003-005-007-013-051-095-099-107-113-125-129-160040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD BURNETT IRON POLK PRICE RUSK SAWYER Read more

WW 513 SEVERE TSTM MI MN WI LS 151955Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 513 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Upper Peninsula Michigan Central and North-Central Minnesota Northern Wisconsin Lake Superior * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop through the remainder of the afternoon and persist into the evening. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of a risk for large hail and severe gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Alexandria MN to 115 miles east of Ironwood MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1679 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514... FOR SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1679 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Areas affected...southwestern through northeastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514... Valid 152249Z - 160045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail may be accompanied by increasing downbursts during the next few couple of hours, before gradually organizing and advancing southeastward with a continuing risk for strong to severe gusts through 7-9 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Still generally focused along the pre-frontal surface trough, as it is gradually overtaken by the southward advancing cold front, thunderstorm development continues to increase and intensify. This appears to be occurring beneath the 500 mb cold core (-8 to -10C) of weak mid-level troughing advancing eastward across South Dakota and Nebraska, where southwesterly deep-layer mean flow is a rather modest 10-20 kt. Veering of wind fields with height is contributing to modest shear, however, supportive of widely scattered supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail. Although it will be several more hours before a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet may become an influence across parts of central Nebraska, ongoing storms may pose an increasing risk for downbursts over the next few hours, before outflow begins to conglomerate and the more intense convection becomes focused along the leading edge of southeastward outflow surges through 00-02Z. ..Kerr.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 42300048 42859919 43399847 43729715 42899643 42109680 40869901 40090103 41520203 42300048 Read more

MD 1678 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 513... FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN. UPPER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1678 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Areas affected...central Minnesota...northern Wisconsin. Upper Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 513... Valid 152210Z - 160015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 513 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for severe wind and occasional severe hail continues within WW513. DISCUSSION...Broken lines of thunderstorm activity continue near the surface cold front across central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and the Upper Michigan Peninsula. Deep layer shear around 20-30 kts is largely parallel to and located near the cold front. As such, some disorganized mainly multi-cell clusters continue to track east-northeastward. South of the cold front, shear decreases but steep low level lapse rates around 8-8.5 C/km and a very warm/unstable air mass will continue to support instances of severe gusts. Some marginally severe hail may be possible near the cold front and in the vicinity of better deep layer shear. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX... LAT...LON 44999520 45339514 45709502 46179465 46509401 46679313 46719232 46769139 46898995 47028937 47138869 46818805 46558796 46038822 45748933 45569037 45099298 44989428 44909498 44999520 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1677 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHERN UTAH...SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO...AND SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1677 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Areas affected...northeastern Nevada...northern Utah...southeastern Idaho...and southwestern Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152050Z - 152315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, posing a threat of dry microburst winds. Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of a watch. DISCUSSION...A glancing influence from the shortwave trough to the north is resulting in some large-scale ascent and an increase in midlevlel winds this afternoon. Initial storms are increasing in coverage and intensity across northeastern Nevada, and this activity is expected to spread east-northeastward through the afternoon into southwestern Wyoming. The 17Z DPG sounding characterizes the very steep lapse rates (near dry adiabatic up to around 500 mb) in which these storms are forming. This environment will support very strong downdrafts and dry-microburst potential. Recent VWPs from Salt Lake City indicate around 30 knots of mid-to-upper-level flow, which may support some storm organization and propagation. If storms are able to organize into clusters, a severe thunderstorm watch may be considered. ..Jirak/Smith.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 40101509 41131563 41551557 42141453 42591280 42691177 42721056 42490947 42030912 41490909 41070968 40621075 39951253 39761437 40101509 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0515 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 515 SEVERE TSTM WY 152230Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 515 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms will likely intensify while moving eastward across central Wyoming, with the potential to produce severe outflow gusts up to 70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1 inch in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Riverton WY to 45 miles north northeast of Casper WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513...WW 514... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1675 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1675 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Areas affected...south-central South Dakota into much of central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 151958Z - 152230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storms will erupt across south-central South Dakota into northern and west-central Nebraska in the next 1-2 hours, producing large hail initially followed by damaging winds. DISCUSSION...A cold front stretches from east-central SD into western NE and far eastern CO, with a surface low over western NE. Satellite imagery shows strong heating and building CU fields along the front and near the low, and this is where initiation will occur. Deep-layer lapse rates continue to steepen as a midlevel wave approaches from the west, and surface temperatures warm. When combined with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints, moderately strong instability is noted with MLCAPE to around 3000 J/kg. Modest westerlies aloft combined with a persistent southerly boundary-layer winds will support southeastward-moving storms. A few supercells producing damaging hail are possible initially, but an evolution to severe MCS is anticipated from late afternoon through evening. Corridors of significant wind damage may occur. ..Jewell/Smith.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43909938 44009862 43929795 43359777 42379803 41449862 41409863 40849917 40470006 40460161 41180210 41870224 42090219 42560171 43200035 43759964 43909938 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0513 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 513 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S VVV TO 30 N STC TO 40 SSW HIB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1678 ..THORNTON..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...GRB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 513 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC013-053-061-071-103-131-152340- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARAGA GOGEBIC HOUGHTON IRON MARQUETTE ONTONAGON MNC001-003-009-017-023-025-059-065-067-093-095-115-141-145-151- 171-152340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON CARLTON CHIPPEWA CHISAGO ISANTI KANABEC KANDIYOHI MEEKER MILLE LACS PINE SHERBURNE STEARNS SWIFT WRIGHT Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...OAX...LBF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC137-147-152340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NORTON PHILLIPS NEC001-003-005-009-011-015-017-019-029-031-041-047-061-063-065- 071-073-075-077-079-083-085-087-089-091-093-099-101-103-107-111- 113-115-117-121-125-135-137-145-149-163-171-175-183-152340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ANTELOPE ARTHUR BLAINE BOONE BOYD BROWN BUFFALO CHASE CHERRY CUSTER DAWSON FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GARFIELD GOSPER GRANT GREELEY HALL HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK HOLT HOOKER HOWARD KEARNEY KEITH KEYA PAHA KNOX LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP Read more

WW 0514 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 514 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...OAX...LBF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 514 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC137-147-152340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NORTON PHILLIPS NEC001-003-005-009-011-015-017-019-029-031-041-047-061-063-065- 071-073-075-077-079-083-085-087-089-091-093-099-101-103-107-111- 113-115-117-121-125-135-137-145-149-163-171-175-183-152340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ANTELOPE ARTHUR BLAINE BOONE BOYD BROWN BUFFALO CHASE CHERRY CUSTER DAWSON FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GARFIELD GOSPER GRANT GREELEY HALL HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK HOLT HOOKER HOWARD KEARNEY KEITH KEYA PAHA KNOX LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP Read more

WW 514 SEVERE TSTM KS NE SD 152050Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 514 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Kansas Western and Central Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a front this afternoon into the evening and grow upscale into a linear cluster. Large hail will be the primary severe hazard this afternoon before storms increase in coverage and congeal into one or two linear clusters. Severe gusts will become the primary severe hazard during the evening as this activity moves east-southeast across the Watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Chamberlain SD to 20 miles south southeast of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1676 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN IDAHO...SOUTHERN MONTANA...AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1676 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Areas affected...eastern Idaho...southern Montana...and northern/central Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152012Z - 152215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon posing a risk of severe hail and winds. Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of a watch. DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent ahead of a midlevel trough (evident over the northern Intermountain West in water vapor imagery) is resulting in thunderstorm development over portions of eastern Idaho and southwestern Montana. As this ascent overspreads Wyoming where better instability is developing, storms are expected to intensify and organize later this afternoon into the evening. Recent VWPs from the Pocatello radar indicate that midlevel westerly flow has increased to around 40 knots as this disturbance approaches. Consequently, there should be enough shear for some storm organization despite limited instability. Steep midlevel lapse rates may support some hail threat with the initial updraft cores, but the primary threat will be severe winds, as these storms are developing and moving into deep, well-mixed boundary layers. This environment will favor strong evaporative cooling and dry-microburst potential. If storms are able to grow upscale into clusters, a more organized severe-wind threat may materialize warranting watch issuance. ..Jirak/Smith.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH... LAT...LON 44561268 45101147 45201070 45050968 44830815 44360701 43650578 42670575 42350618 42230706 42500894 42781035 43051165 43341238 44561268 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level low will usher in deeper monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Greater Four Corners region through the end of the week aiding in promoting heavier rainfall with primarily diurnally driven thunderstorms over higher terrain. Dry thunderstorm threat will remain on the fringes of the deeper monsoon moisture across the eastern Great Basin, northern UT and Western Slope on Day 3/Thursday, moving even further north into the central ID/southwest MT mountains on Day 4/Friday. Increasing westerly flow associated with an approaching mid-level short wave will usher in stronger onshore winds into the Pacific Northwest on Day 4/Friday, increasing fire weather concerns east of the Cascades in WA/OR. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Breezy and dry conditions expand into the Northwestern U.S. as the mid-level trough moves into the region. 40 percent probabilities of critical fire weather conditions were added to the Columbia Basin and Snake River Plain where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The aforementioned trough and enhanced deep layer westerly flow will aid in the evacuation of monsoon moisture from the Western U.S., pushing thunderstorm development primarily along and east of the Continental Divide, south of the Mogollon Rim by Day 6/Sunday. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday... Uncertainty increases early next week regarding strength of troughing across the Pacific Northwest, precluding introduction of critical probabilities at this time. However, ensemble guidance does indicate a general troughing pattern holding on into early next week, which typically would bring dry, southwest flow and fire weather concerns to the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level low will usher in deeper monsoon moisture into the Desert Southwest and Greater Four Corners region through the end of the week aiding in promoting heavier rainfall with primarily diurnally driven thunderstorms over higher terrain. Dry thunderstorm threat will remain on the fringes of the deeper monsoon moisture across the eastern Great Basin, northern UT and Western Slope on Day 3/Thursday, moving even further north into the central ID/southwest MT mountains on Day 4/Friday. Increasing westerly flow associated with an approaching mid-level short wave will usher in stronger onshore winds into the Pacific Northwest on Day 4/Friday, increasing fire weather concerns east of the Cascades in WA/OR. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Breezy and dry conditions expand into the Northwestern U.S. as the mid-level trough moves into the region. 40 percent probabilities of critical fire weather conditions were added to the Columbia Basin and Snake River Plain where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The aforementioned trough and enhanced deep layer westerly flow will aid in the evacuation of monsoon moisture from the Western U.S., pushing thunderstorm development primarily along and east of the Continental Divide, south of the Mogollon Rim by Day 6/Sunday. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday... Uncertainty increases early next week regarding strength of troughing across the Pacific Northwest, precluding introduction of critical probabilities at this time. However, ensemble guidance does indicate a general troughing pattern holding on into early next week, which typically would bring dry, southwest flow and fire weather concerns to the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more