Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z Monsoon moisture across the Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin will remain largely elevated at mid-levels with a sufficiently dry sub cloud layer to facilitate evaporation and subsequent minimal surface rainfall from high-based thunderstorms over higher terrain. Lightning ignition potential is lower across Arizona and New Mexico where deeper moisture profiles will promote more wetting rain cores. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moisture will increase on D2/Thursday across the Southwest with a cut off low off the coast of Baja California. This moisture aided by upper-level forcing will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity across much of Arizona into southern Utah with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. On the fringes of the deeper moisture plume, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Colorado into Utah, eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming. As such, a broad area of isolated dry thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z Monsoon moisture across the Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin will remain largely elevated at mid-levels with a sufficiently dry sub cloud layer to facilitate evaporation and subsequent minimal surface rainfall from high-based thunderstorms over higher terrain. Lightning ignition potential is lower across Arizona and New Mexico where deeper moisture profiles will promote more wetting rain cores. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moisture will increase on D2/Thursday across the Southwest with a cut off low off the coast of Baja California. This moisture aided by upper-level forcing will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity across much of Arizona into southern Utah with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. On the fringes of the deeper moisture plume, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Colorado into Utah, eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming. As such, a broad area of isolated dry thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z Monsoon moisture across the Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin will remain largely elevated at mid-levels with a sufficiently dry sub cloud layer to facilitate evaporation and subsequent minimal surface rainfall from high-based thunderstorms over higher terrain. Lightning ignition potential is lower across Arizona and New Mexico where deeper moisture profiles will promote more wetting rain cores. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moisture will increase on D2/Thursday across the Southwest with a cut off low off the coast of Baja California. This moisture aided by upper-level forcing will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity across much of Arizona into southern Utah with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. On the fringes of the deeper moisture plume, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Colorado into Utah, eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming. As such, a broad area of isolated dry thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z Monsoon moisture across the Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin will remain largely elevated at mid-levels with a sufficiently dry sub cloud layer to facilitate evaporation and subsequent minimal surface rainfall from high-based thunderstorms over higher terrain. Lightning ignition potential is lower across Arizona and New Mexico where deeper moisture profiles will promote more wetting rain cores. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moisture will increase on D2/Thursday across the Southwest with a cut off low off the coast of Baja California. This moisture aided by upper-level forcing will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity across much of Arizona into southern Utah with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. On the fringes of the deeper moisture plume, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Colorado into Utah, eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming. As such, a broad area of isolated dry thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z Monsoon moisture across the Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin will remain largely elevated at mid-levels with a sufficiently dry sub cloud layer to facilitate evaporation and subsequent minimal surface rainfall from high-based thunderstorms over higher terrain. Lightning ignition potential is lower across Arizona and New Mexico where deeper moisture profiles will promote more wetting rain cores. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moisture will increase on D2/Thursday across the Southwest with a cut off low off the coast of Baja California. This moisture aided by upper-level forcing will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity across much of Arizona into southern Utah with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. On the fringes of the deeper moisture plume, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Colorado into Utah, eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming. As such, a broad area of isolated dry thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z Monsoon moisture across the Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin will remain largely elevated at mid-levels with a sufficiently dry sub cloud layer to facilitate evaporation and subsequent minimal surface rainfall from high-based thunderstorms over higher terrain. Lightning ignition potential is lower across Arizona and New Mexico where deeper moisture profiles will promote more wetting rain cores. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moisture will increase on D2/Thursday across the Southwest with a cut off low off the coast of Baja California. This moisture aided by upper-level forcing will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity across much of Arizona into southern Utah with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. On the fringes of the deeper moisture plume, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Colorado into Utah, eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming. As such, a broad area of isolated dry thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z Monsoon moisture across the Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin will remain largely elevated at mid-levels with a sufficiently dry sub cloud layer to facilitate evaporation and subsequent minimal surface rainfall from high-based thunderstorms over higher terrain. Lightning ignition potential is lower across Arizona and New Mexico where deeper moisture profiles will promote more wetting rain cores. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moisture will increase on D2/Thursday across the Southwest with a cut off low off the coast of Baja California. This moisture aided by upper-level forcing will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity across much of Arizona into southern Utah with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. On the fringes of the deeper moisture plume, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Colorado into Utah, eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming. As such, a broad area of isolated dry thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z Monsoon moisture across the Great Basin and Upper-Colorado River Basin will remain largely elevated at mid-levels with a sufficiently dry sub cloud layer to facilitate evaporation and subsequent minimal surface rainfall from high-based thunderstorms over higher terrain. Lightning ignition potential is lower across Arizona and New Mexico where deeper moisture profiles will promote more wetting rain cores. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moisture will increase on D2/Thursday across the Southwest with a cut off low off the coast of Baja California. This moisture aided by upper-level forcing will bring an increase in thunderstorm activity across much of Arizona into southern Utah with increasing chances for wetting rainfall. On the fringes of the deeper moisture plume, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Colorado into Utah, eastern Nevada, southern Idaho, and southwestern Wyoming. As such, a broad area of isolated dry thunderstorms was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIA TO 20 WSW JVL. ..MOSIER..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-031-037-043-063-089-091-093-097-099-103-111-141-155- 197-201-161940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY OGLE PUTNAM WILL WINNEBAGO INC089-127-161940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAKE PORTER LMZ740-741-742-743-744-745-777-779-161940- CW Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIA TO 20 WSW JVL. ..MOSIER..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-031-037-043-063-089-091-093-097-099-103-111-141-155- 197-201-161940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY OGLE PUTNAM WILL WINNEBAGO INC089-127-161940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAKE PORTER LMZ740-741-742-743-744-745-777-779-161940- CW Read more

MD 1684 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WI...NORTHERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1684 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Far Eastern IA...Southern/Central WI...Northern IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161645Z - 161845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity and coverage is expected to increase from far eastern IA into southern/central WI and northern IL this afternoon. All severe hazards will be possible with the more mature/long-lived storms, including a few tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 40 miles east-northeast of ALO in far northeast IA. A warm front extends northeastward from this low into south-central WI before arcing more eastward and then southeastward into southern Lake Michigan. Additionally, a surface trough extends southward from this low across far eastern IA, while a cold front also extends southwestward across south-central IA into central KS. Modest mid-level warm-air advection attendant to the parent shortwave trough has promoted surface-based thunderstorm within the warm sector south of the warm front across far southwest WI and far northwest IL. There is potential for this activity to strengthen as the airmass downstream across central/southern WI destabilizes amid filtered daytime heating. Additional thunderstorm development is also possible along the surface trough as it pushes eastward into the region this afternoon. Ample low-level moisture within the warm sector is supporting moderate buoyancy, despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Vertical shear is enhanced by slightly stronger low to mid-level flow close to the approaching shortwave. The resulting combination of instability and shear will support organized storm structures, including a few supercells. Low-level flow will be relatively modest, but ample low-level instability and increased low-level vorticity close to the surface low could still result in a few tornadoes. Some isolated hail could also occur with the more cellular storms, but damaging gusts will likely be the primary risk, particularly with any bowing segments that materialize. ..Mosier/Smith.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 43369135 44089009 43948850 43168789 41988818 41519064 43369135 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOSIER..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-009-015-021-025-027-039-045-047-049-053-055-057-059-061- 063-065-071-077-079-081-087-089-097-101-103-105-111-117-123-127- 131-133-135-137-139-141-161940- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALUMET COLUMBIA DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA JACKSON JEFFERSON JUNEAU KENOSHA KEWAUNEE LA CROSSE LAFAYETTE MANITOWOC MARQUETTE MILWAUKEE MONROE OUTAGAMIE OZAUKEE PORTAGE RACINE RICHLAND ROCK SAUK SHEBOYGAN VERNON WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO WOOD LMZ542-543-643-644-645-646-161940- CW Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOSIER..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-009-015-021-025-027-039-045-047-049-053-055-057-059-061- 063-065-071-077-079-081-087-089-097-101-103-105-111-117-123-127- 131-133-135-137-139-141-161940- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALUMET COLUMBIA DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA JACKSON JEFFERSON JUNEAU KENOSHA KEWAUNEE LA CROSSE LAFAYETTE MANITOWOC MARQUETTE MILWAUKEE MONROE OUTAGAMIE OZAUKEE PORTAGE RACINE RICHLAND ROCK SAUK SHEBOYGAN VERNON WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO WOOD LMZ542-543-643-644-645-646-161940- CW Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC...EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OZARKS...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging gusts are expected from New York into New England on Thursday, with strong afternoon storms also from Virginia westward toward Kansas. Isolated cells may also produce hail over the far northern High Plains late. ...Northeast... A weak lead wave will move across eastern NY into New England Thursday morning, with an influx of theta-e around 850 mb with a few thunderstorms possible. Behind this disturbance, a stronger wave will move across the Great Lakes during the day with an upper-level speed max nosing into northern NY and into Maine late. Meanwhile, a surface low will deepen as it moves primarily down the St. Lawrence Valley. Southwest flow will increase ahead of the low, with drying pushing across much of western PA and NY. However, ascent will deepen the moist boundary layer from eastern NY into New England during the afternoon, with the strongest overall lift from northern NY at 21Z into MA by 03Z. Mitigating overall potential will be generally weak low to midlevel lapse rates, which may minimize updraft strength, while subsidence arrives from the west. The best overall potential appears to be far northern areas coincident with stronger deep-layer ascent, which may counteract the less than marginal thermo profiles. Increasing mean winds in the lowest few km may support sporadic strong to damaging gusts across the entire region, from late afternoon through evening. Overall, CAM signals are mixed, and model trends will be re-evaluated going forward in the forecast cycle. ...KS...Ozarks...OH Valley into VA... Modest westerly flow will extend from the central Plains to the Mid Atlantic, on the southern periphery of a stronger trough moving across NY/New England. Substantial moisture with 70s F dewpoints will remain south of an elongated east/west oriented boundary, with 2000+ MLCAPE from the Delmarva westward across the OH Valley and into parts of southern KS/northern OK. Clusters of afternoon storms are likely to form within this zone especially over the high terrain from western VA into WV and KY, and from southern MO into southern KS. Locally damaging downbursts are most likely. ...Far northern High Plains... Models signals are mixed but appear to indicate a threat of at least isolated cells capable of hail developing along the MT/Canada border around 00Z, spreading southeastward toward far southwest ND into Friday morning. This zone will become heated during the day with a surface trough over central MT, and beneath cool midlevel temperatures aloft with a weak midlevel wave. A plume of higher theta-e will develop around 850 mb from eastern WY/MT into the Dakotas with moistening through 700 mb as well. Moderate deep-layer shear will thus support a conditional risk of isolated cells producing hail overnight. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC...EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OZARKS...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging gusts are expected from New York into New England on Thursday, with strong afternoon storms also from Virginia westward toward Kansas. Isolated cells may also produce hail over the far northern High Plains late. ...Northeast... A weak lead wave will move across eastern NY into New England Thursday morning, with an influx of theta-e around 850 mb with a few thunderstorms possible. Behind this disturbance, a stronger wave will move across the Great Lakes during the day with an upper-level speed max nosing into northern NY and into Maine late. Meanwhile, a surface low will deepen as it moves primarily down the St. Lawrence Valley. Southwest flow will increase ahead of the low, with drying pushing across much of western PA and NY. However, ascent will deepen the moist boundary layer from eastern NY into New England during the afternoon, with the strongest overall lift from northern NY at 21Z into MA by 03Z. Mitigating overall potential will be generally weak low to midlevel lapse rates, which may minimize updraft strength, while subsidence arrives from the west. The best overall potential appears to be far northern areas coincident with stronger deep-layer ascent, which may counteract the less than marginal thermo profiles. Increasing mean winds in the lowest few km may support sporadic strong to damaging gusts across the entire region, from late afternoon through evening. Overall, CAM signals are mixed, and model trends will be re-evaluated going forward in the forecast cycle. ...KS...Ozarks...OH Valley into VA... Modest westerly flow will extend from the central Plains to the Mid Atlantic, on the southern periphery of a stronger trough moving across NY/New England. Substantial moisture with 70s F dewpoints will remain south of an elongated east/west oriented boundary, with 2000+ MLCAPE from the Delmarva westward across the OH Valley and into parts of southern KS/northern OK. Clusters of afternoon storms are likely to form within this zone especially over the high terrain from western VA into WV and KY, and from southern MO into southern KS. Locally damaging downbursts are most likely. ...Far northern High Plains... Models signals are mixed but appear to indicate a threat of at least isolated cells capable of hail developing along the MT/Canada border around 00Z, spreading southeastward toward far southwest ND into Friday morning. This zone will become heated during the day with a surface trough over central MT, and beneath cool midlevel temperatures aloft with a weak midlevel wave. A plume of higher theta-e will develop around 850 mb from eastern WY/MT into the Dakotas with moistening through 700 mb as well. Moderate deep-layer shear will thus support a conditional risk of isolated cells producing hail overnight. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC...EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OZARKS...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging gusts are expected from New York into New England on Thursday, with strong afternoon storms also from Virginia westward toward Kansas. Isolated cells may also produce hail over the far northern High Plains late. ...Northeast... A weak lead wave will move across eastern NY into New England Thursday morning, with an influx of theta-e around 850 mb with a few thunderstorms possible. Behind this disturbance, a stronger wave will move across the Great Lakes during the day with an upper-level speed max nosing into northern NY and into Maine late. Meanwhile, a surface low will deepen as it moves primarily down the St. Lawrence Valley. Southwest flow will increase ahead of the low, with drying pushing across much of western PA and NY. However, ascent will deepen the moist boundary layer from eastern NY into New England during the afternoon, with the strongest overall lift from northern NY at 21Z into MA by 03Z. Mitigating overall potential will be generally weak low to midlevel lapse rates, which may minimize updraft strength, while subsidence arrives from the west. The best overall potential appears to be far northern areas coincident with stronger deep-layer ascent, which may counteract the less than marginal thermo profiles. Increasing mean winds in the lowest few km may support sporadic strong to damaging gusts across the entire region, from late afternoon through evening. Overall, CAM signals are mixed, and model trends will be re-evaluated going forward in the forecast cycle. ...KS...Ozarks...OH Valley into VA... Modest westerly flow will extend from the central Plains to the Mid Atlantic, on the southern periphery of a stronger trough moving across NY/New England. Substantial moisture with 70s F dewpoints will remain south of an elongated east/west oriented boundary, with 2000+ MLCAPE from the Delmarva westward across the OH Valley and into parts of southern KS/northern OK. Clusters of afternoon storms are likely to form within this zone especially over the high terrain from western VA into WV and KY, and from southern MO into southern KS. Locally damaging downbursts are most likely. ...Far northern High Plains... Models signals are mixed but appear to indicate a threat of at least isolated cells capable of hail developing along the MT/Canada border around 00Z, spreading southeastward toward far southwest ND into Friday morning. This zone will become heated during the day with a surface trough over central MT, and beneath cool midlevel temperatures aloft with a weak midlevel wave. A plume of higher theta-e will develop around 850 mb from eastern WY/MT into the Dakotas with moistening through 700 mb as well. Moderate deep-layer shear will thus support a conditional risk of isolated cells producing hail overnight. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC...EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OZARKS...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging gusts are expected from New York into New England on Thursday, with strong afternoon storms also from Virginia westward toward Kansas. Isolated cells may also produce hail over the far northern High Plains late. ...Northeast... A weak lead wave will move across eastern NY into New England Thursday morning, with an influx of theta-e around 850 mb with a few thunderstorms possible. Behind this disturbance, a stronger wave will move across the Great Lakes during the day with an upper-level speed max nosing into northern NY and into Maine late. Meanwhile, a surface low will deepen as it moves primarily down the St. Lawrence Valley. Southwest flow will increase ahead of the low, with drying pushing across much of western PA and NY. However, ascent will deepen the moist boundary layer from eastern NY into New England during the afternoon, with the strongest overall lift from northern NY at 21Z into MA by 03Z. Mitigating overall potential will be generally weak low to midlevel lapse rates, which may minimize updraft strength, while subsidence arrives from the west. The best overall potential appears to be far northern areas coincident with stronger deep-layer ascent, which may counteract the less than marginal thermo profiles. Increasing mean winds in the lowest few km may support sporadic strong to damaging gusts across the entire region, from late afternoon through evening. Overall, CAM signals are mixed, and model trends will be re-evaluated going forward in the forecast cycle. ...KS...Ozarks...OH Valley into VA... Modest westerly flow will extend from the central Plains to the Mid Atlantic, on the southern periphery of a stronger trough moving across NY/New England. Substantial moisture with 70s F dewpoints will remain south of an elongated east/west oriented boundary, with 2000+ MLCAPE from the Delmarva westward across the OH Valley and into parts of southern KS/northern OK. Clusters of afternoon storms are likely to form within this zone especially over the high terrain from western VA into WV and KY, and from southern MO into southern KS. Locally damaging downbursts are most likely. ...Far northern High Plains... Models signals are mixed but appear to indicate a threat of at least isolated cells capable of hail developing along the MT/Canada border around 00Z, spreading southeastward toward far southwest ND into Friday morning. This zone will become heated during the day with a surface trough over central MT, and beneath cool midlevel temperatures aloft with a weak midlevel wave. A plume of higher theta-e will develop around 850 mb from eastern WY/MT into the Dakotas with moistening through 700 mb as well. Moderate deep-layer shear will thus support a conditional risk of isolated cells producing hail overnight. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC...EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OZARKS...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging gusts are expected from New York into New England on Thursday, with strong afternoon storms also from Virginia westward toward Kansas. Isolated cells may also produce hail over the far northern High Plains late. ...Northeast... A weak lead wave will move across eastern NY into New England Thursday morning, with an influx of theta-e around 850 mb with a few thunderstorms possible. Behind this disturbance, a stronger wave will move across the Great Lakes during the day with an upper-level speed max nosing into northern NY and into Maine late. Meanwhile, a surface low will deepen as it moves primarily down the St. Lawrence Valley. Southwest flow will increase ahead of the low, with drying pushing across much of western PA and NY. However, ascent will deepen the moist boundary layer from eastern NY into New England during the afternoon, with the strongest overall lift from northern NY at 21Z into MA by 03Z. Mitigating overall potential will be generally weak low to midlevel lapse rates, which may minimize updraft strength, while subsidence arrives from the west. The best overall potential appears to be far northern areas coincident with stronger deep-layer ascent, which may counteract the less than marginal thermo profiles. Increasing mean winds in the lowest few km may support sporadic strong to damaging gusts across the entire region, from late afternoon through evening. Overall, CAM signals are mixed, and model trends will be re-evaluated going forward in the forecast cycle. ...KS...Ozarks...OH Valley into VA... Modest westerly flow will extend from the central Plains to the Mid Atlantic, on the southern periphery of a stronger trough moving across NY/New England. Substantial moisture with 70s F dewpoints will remain south of an elongated east/west oriented boundary, with 2000+ MLCAPE from the Delmarva westward across the OH Valley and into parts of southern KS/northern OK. Clusters of afternoon storms are likely to form within this zone especially over the high terrain from western VA into WV and KY, and from southern MO into southern KS. Locally damaging downbursts are most likely. ...Far northern High Plains... Models signals are mixed but appear to indicate a threat of at least isolated cells capable of hail developing along the MT/Canada border around 00Z, spreading southeastward toward far southwest ND into Friday morning. This zone will become heated during the day with a surface trough over central MT, and beneath cool midlevel temperatures aloft with a weak midlevel wave. A plume of higher theta-e will develop around 850 mb from eastern WY/MT into the Dakotas with moistening through 700 mb as well. Moderate deep-layer shear will thus support a conditional risk of isolated cells producing hail overnight. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC...EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OZARKS...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging gusts are expected from New York into New England on Thursday, with strong afternoon storms also from Virginia westward toward Kansas. Isolated cells may also produce hail over the far northern High Plains late. ...Northeast... A weak lead wave will move across eastern NY into New England Thursday morning, with an influx of theta-e around 850 mb with a few thunderstorms possible. Behind this disturbance, a stronger wave will move across the Great Lakes during the day with an upper-level speed max nosing into northern NY and into Maine late. Meanwhile, a surface low will deepen as it moves primarily down the St. Lawrence Valley. Southwest flow will increase ahead of the low, with drying pushing across much of western PA and NY. However, ascent will deepen the moist boundary layer from eastern NY into New England during the afternoon, with the strongest overall lift from northern NY at 21Z into MA by 03Z. Mitigating overall potential will be generally weak low to midlevel lapse rates, which may minimize updraft strength, while subsidence arrives from the west. The best overall potential appears to be far northern areas coincident with stronger deep-layer ascent, which may counteract the less than marginal thermo profiles. Increasing mean winds in the lowest few km may support sporadic strong to damaging gusts across the entire region, from late afternoon through evening. Overall, CAM signals are mixed, and model trends will be re-evaluated going forward in the forecast cycle. ...KS...Ozarks...OH Valley into VA... Modest westerly flow will extend from the central Plains to the Mid Atlantic, on the southern periphery of a stronger trough moving across NY/New England. Substantial moisture with 70s F dewpoints will remain south of an elongated east/west oriented boundary, with 2000+ MLCAPE from the Delmarva westward across the OH Valley and into parts of southern KS/northern OK. Clusters of afternoon storms are likely to form within this zone especially over the high terrain from western VA into WV and KY, and from southern MO into southern KS. Locally damaging downbursts are most likely. ...Far northern High Plains... Models signals are mixed but appear to indicate a threat of at least isolated cells capable of hail developing along the MT/Canada border around 00Z, spreading southeastward toward far southwest ND into Friday morning. This zone will become heated during the day with a surface trough over central MT, and beneath cool midlevel temperatures aloft with a weak midlevel wave. A plume of higher theta-e will develop around 850 mb from eastern WY/MT into the Dakotas with moistening through 700 mb as well. Moderate deep-layer shear will thus support a conditional risk of isolated cells producing hail overnight. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC...EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OZARKS...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging gusts are expected from New York into New England on Thursday, with strong afternoon storms also from Virginia westward toward Kansas. Isolated cells may also produce hail over the far northern High Plains late. ...Northeast... A weak lead wave will move across eastern NY into New England Thursday morning, with an influx of theta-e around 850 mb with a few thunderstorms possible. Behind this disturbance, a stronger wave will move across the Great Lakes during the day with an upper-level speed max nosing into northern NY and into Maine late. Meanwhile, a surface low will deepen as it moves primarily down the St. Lawrence Valley. Southwest flow will increase ahead of the low, with drying pushing across much of western PA and NY. However, ascent will deepen the moist boundary layer from eastern NY into New England during the afternoon, with the strongest overall lift from northern NY at 21Z into MA by 03Z. Mitigating overall potential will be generally weak low to midlevel lapse rates, which may minimize updraft strength, while subsidence arrives from the west. The best overall potential appears to be far northern areas coincident with stronger deep-layer ascent, which may counteract the less than marginal thermo profiles. Increasing mean winds in the lowest few km may support sporadic strong to damaging gusts across the entire region, from late afternoon through evening. Overall, CAM signals are mixed, and model trends will be re-evaluated going forward in the forecast cycle. ...KS...Ozarks...OH Valley into VA... Modest westerly flow will extend from the central Plains to the Mid Atlantic, on the southern periphery of a stronger trough moving across NY/New England. Substantial moisture with 70s F dewpoints will remain south of an elongated east/west oriented boundary, with 2000+ MLCAPE from the Delmarva westward across the OH Valley and into parts of southern KS/northern OK. Clusters of afternoon storms are likely to form within this zone especially over the high terrain from western VA into WV and KY, and from southern MO into southern KS. Locally damaging downbursts are most likely. ...Far northern High Plains... Models signals are mixed but appear to indicate a threat of at least isolated cells capable of hail developing along the MT/Canada border around 00Z, spreading southeastward toward far southwest ND into Friday morning. This zone will become heated during the day with a surface trough over central MT, and beneath cool midlevel temperatures aloft with a weak midlevel wave. A plume of higher theta-e will develop around 850 mb from eastern WY/MT into the Dakotas with moistening through 700 mb as well. Moderate deep-layer shear will thus support a conditional risk of isolated cells producing hail overnight. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more