Severe Storms

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW DEN TO 25 NE DEN TO 40 E LAA. WW 519 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 170400Z. ..THOMPSON..07/17/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-025-031-035-039-041-059-061-071-073-089-099- 101-170400- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO JEFFERSON KIOWA LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1697 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1697 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0853 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Extreme southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 170153Z - 170330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storm cluster will continue discrete propagation into the Oklahoma Panhandle before weakening. Isolated severe gusts will be the main threat through 03-04z. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has displayed a tendency for discrete propagation/new development to the southwest, on the immediate cool side of a slow moving front. Per the recent measured gusts as high as 78 mph at DDC, the mesoscale environment remains supportive of severe outflow gusts given lingering steep low-level lapse rates and a narrow zone where MLCAPE is still near 3000 J/kg. The storm cluster will likely spread into the central OK Panhandle from now until 03-04z, with weakening expected thereafter as the low levels stabilize gradually. In the interim, occasional severe outflow gusts will remain possible, but the area affected and the duration of the threat are too confined for a watch. ..Thompson/Hart.. 07/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37410022 37040054 36730093 36530127 36530163 36740173 37300138 37690091 37770055 37670040 37410022 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 519 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 162040Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 519 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing near Interstate 25 will continue to intensify this afternoon and move eastward across the Watch. Appreciably strong deep-layer shear will support a mix of supercells and severe multicells across mainly the northern half of the Watch. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms, but a tornado is possible. Severe thunderstorms posing primarily a severe-wind risk are possible later this evening as storms congeal into a likely cluster across southeast Colorado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Cheyenne WY to 25 miles west southwest of Springfield CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517...WW 518... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1695 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MICHIGAN...NORTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1695 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Michigan...northeastern Indiana...northwestern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162343Z - 170115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of strong to severe wind may linger downstream of WW520. Overall, the threat is likely to diminish and downstream watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...A line of storms moving across northern Indiana has shown signs of weakening over the last hour. A couple of reports around 40-55 mph were noted earlier. The downstream air mass remains unstable but deep layer shear is overall marginal. CAM guidance generally suggests this line will continue to weaken with loss of daytime heating. A downstream watch is unlikely to be needed. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 41668612 42088564 42238461 42098405 41728360 41428349 40978379 40738393 40568402 40308470 40298527 40598590 40688609 41668612 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DEN TO 15 SE CYS TO 40 ESE CYS TO 30 SSE ITR. ..THOMPSON..07/17/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 519 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-013-014-017-025-031-035-039-041-059-061-063- 071-073-087-089-099-101-121-123-170240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT BOULDER BROOMFIELD CHEYENNE CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO JEFFERSON KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN MORGAN OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO WASHINGTON WELD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CO TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...LOWER MI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across eastern Colorado to the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Eastern CO to the Lower MO Valley... A trio of rather widely-spaced and recently weakening supercells are ongoing across eastern CO to southwest KS. With pronounced MLCIN downstream, that will further increase nocturnally, these surface-based storms should diminish. Widespread elevated convection is expected across northern KS into the Lower MO Valley overnight, north of the southward-sagging cold front. Marginal severe hail will be possible with initial updrafts before clustering in a largely west/east-orientation. Modest effective bulk shear will limit the overall threat. ...Lower MI/Lower OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A generally weakening broken line of convection is ongoing from western Lower MI to southern IL. The MI portion has shown some recent uptick, closer to the MCV over central Lake MI. Adequate deep-layer shear and the recent convective increase may foster a sporadic damaging wind threat. But the downstream airmass of weak lapse rates and MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z DTX/APX soundings, will marginalize severe potential tonight. Farther east, slow-moving thunderstorms will drift east and/or weaken across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States tonight. But pockets of moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support localized damaging winds for a few more hours. ..Grams.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CO TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...LOWER MI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across eastern Colorado to the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Eastern CO to the Lower MO Valley... A trio of rather widely-spaced and recently weakening supercells are ongoing across eastern CO to southwest KS. With pronounced MLCIN downstream, that will further increase nocturnally, these surface-based storms should diminish. Widespread elevated convection is expected across northern KS into the Lower MO Valley overnight, north of the southward-sagging cold front. Marginal severe hail will be possible with initial updrafts before clustering in a largely west/east-orientation. Modest effective bulk shear will limit the overall threat. ...Lower MI/Lower OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A generally weakening broken line of convection is ongoing from western Lower MI to southern IL. The MI portion has shown some recent uptick, closer to the MCV over central Lake MI. Adequate deep-layer shear and the recent convective increase may foster a sporadic damaging wind threat. But the downstream airmass of weak lapse rates and MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z DTX/APX soundings, will marginalize severe potential tonight. Farther east, slow-moving thunderstorms will drift east and/or weaken across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States tonight. But pockets of moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support localized damaging winds for a few more hours. ..Grams.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CO TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...LOWER MI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across eastern Colorado to the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Eastern CO to the Lower MO Valley... A trio of rather widely-spaced and recently weakening supercells are ongoing across eastern CO to southwest KS. With pronounced MLCIN downstream, that will further increase nocturnally, these surface-based storms should diminish. Widespread elevated convection is expected across northern KS into the Lower MO Valley overnight, north of the southward-sagging cold front. Marginal severe hail will be possible with initial updrafts before clustering in a largely west/east-orientation. Modest effective bulk shear will limit the overall threat. ...Lower MI/Lower OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A generally weakening broken line of convection is ongoing from western Lower MI to southern IL. The MI portion has shown some recent uptick, closer to the MCV over central Lake MI. Adequate deep-layer shear and the recent convective increase may foster a sporadic damaging wind threat. But the downstream airmass of weak lapse rates and MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z DTX/APX soundings, will marginalize severe potential tonight. Farther east, slow-moving thunderstorms will drift east and/or weaken across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States tonight. But pockets of moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support localized damaging winds for a few more hours. ..Grams.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CO TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...LOWER MI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across eastern Colorado to the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Eastern CO to the Lower MO Valley... A trio of rather widely-spaced and recently weakening supercells are ongoing across eastern CO to southwest KS. With pronounced MLCIN downstream, that will further increase nocturnally, these surface-based storms should diminish. Widespread elevated convection is expected across northern KS into the Lower MO Valley overnight, north of the southward-sagging cold front. Marginal severe hail will be possible with initial updrafts before clustering in a largely west/east-orientation. Modest effective bulk shear will limit the overall threat. ...Lower MI/Lower OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A generally weakening broken line of convection is ongoing from western Lower MI to southern IL. The MI portion has shown some recent uptick, closer to the MCV over central Lake MI. Adequate deep-layer shear and the recent convective increase may foster a sporadic damaging wind threat. But the downstream airmass of weak lapse rates and MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z DTX/APX soundings, will marginalize severe potential tonight. Farther east, slow-moving thunderstorms will drift east and/or weaken across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States tonight. But pockets of moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support localized damaging winds for a few more hours. ..Grams.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CO TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...LOWER MI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across eastern Colorado to the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Eastern CO to the Lower MO Valley... A trio of rather widely-spaced and recently weakening supercells are ongoing across eastern CO to southwest KS. With pronounced MLCIN downstream, that will further increase nocturnally, these surface-based storms should diminish. Widespread elevated convection is expected across northern KS into the Lower MO Valley overnight, north of the southward-sagging cold front. Marginal severe hail will be possible with initial updrafts before clustering in a largely west/east-orientation. Modest effective bulk shear will limit the overall threat. ...Lower MI/Lower OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A generally weakening broken line of convection is ongoing from western Lower MI to southern IL. The MI portion has shown some recent uptick, closer to the MCV over central Lake MI. Adequate deep-layer shear and the recent convective increase may foster a sporadic damaging wind threat. But the downstream airmass of weak lapse rates and MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z DTX/APX soundings, will marginalize severe potential tonight. Farther east, slow-moving thunderstorms will drift east and/or weaken across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States tonight. But pockets of moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support localized damaging winds for a few more hours. ..Grams.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CO TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...LOWER MI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across eastern Colorado to the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Eastern CO to the Lower MO Valley... A trio of rather widely-spaced and recently weakening supercells are ongoing across eastern CO to southwest KS. With pronounced MLCIN downstream, that will further increase nocturnally, these surface-based storms should diminish. Widespread elevated convection is expected across northern KS into the Lower MO Valley overnight, north of the southward-sagging cold front. Marginal severe hail will be possible with initial updrafts before clustering in a largely west/east-orientation. Modest effective bulk shear will limit the overall threat. ...Lower MI/Lower OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A generally weakening broken line of convection is ongoing from western Lower MI to southern IL. The MI portion has shown some recent uptick, closer to the MCV over central Lake MI. Adequate deep-layer shear and the recent convective increase may foster a sporadic damaging wind threat. But the downstream airmass of weak lapse rates and MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z DTX/APX soundings, will marginalize severe potential tonight. Farther east, slow-moving thunderstorms will drift east and/or weaken across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States tonight. But pockets of moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support localized damaging winds for a few more hours. ..Grams.. 07/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CO TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...LOWER MI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across eastern Colorado to the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated damaging winds remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Eastern CO to the Lower MO Valley... A trio of rather widely-spaced and recently weakening supercells are ongoing across eastern CO to southwest KS. With pronounced MLCIN downstream, that will further increase nocturnally, these surface-based storms should diminish. Widespread elevated convection is expected across northern KS into the Lower MO Valley overnight, north of the southward-sagging cold front. Marginal severe hail will be possible with initial updrafts before clustering in a largely west/east-orientation. Modest effective bulk shear will limit the overall threat. ...Lower MI/Lower OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A generally weakening broken line of convection is ongoing from western Lower MI to southern IL. The MI portion has shown some recent uptick, closer to the MCV over central Lake MI. Adequate deep-layer shear and the recent convective increase may foster a sporadic damaging wind threat. But the downstream airmass of weak lapse rates and MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z DTX/APX soundings, will marginalize severe potential tonight. Farther east, slow-moving thunderstorms will drift east and/or weaken across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States tonight. But pockets of moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support localized damaging winds for a few more hours. ..Grams.. 07/17/2025 Read more

MD 1696 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1696 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...portions of central/northern Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 170000Z - 170100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms moving east may pose a risk for strong to severe wind through the evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues across Lake Michigan and portions of northern/central Michigan. Overall, this activity is remaining below severe limits. CAM guidance suggest that some re-intensification could occur as they move inland over the next couple of hours. The air mass across Michigan remains favorably unstable, with sufficient deep layer shear for organization around 30-40 kts. It is uncertain if storms will pose a more organized severe threat moving inland. Trends will be monitored across this region but a watch is unlikely to be needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 07/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... LAT...LON 43708651 44228640 44848595 45348546 45688465 45508388 45128355 44558356 44018352 43408406 43118468 42938605 43708651 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1694 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1694 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...southern Illinois...southern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162328Z - 170030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk for severe wind will continue through the evening. DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues eastward across southern Illinois and southern Indiana, with occasional stronger segments producing occasional gusts 40-50 mph. This is ongoing within a very unstable air mass, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg. However, deep layer shear for organization remains weak. Occasional severe outflow winds will be possible. However, the threat is likely to remain too localized for watch issuance. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38838905 39388821 40108715 40078619 39698588 38798606 38288678 38108745 38208845 38408909 38838905 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0520 Status Updates
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WW 0520 Status Updates
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WW 0520 Status Updates
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WW 0520 Status Updates
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WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DNV TO 30 SSW VPZ TO 30 NW BEH. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC007-073-162340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DNV TO 30 SSW VPZ TO 30 NW BEH. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC007-073-162340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more