Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds and the overall fire-weather threat. Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds and the overall fire-weather threat. Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds and the overall fire-weather threat. Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds and the overall fire-weather threat. Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds and the overall fire-weather threat. Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains, central High Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains... A slow-moving shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, upslope easterly flow will be in place across a moist airmass over much of Texas. Model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms could be already going by morning across parts of west-central Texas. As surface temperature warm and instability develops across west and southwest Texas, it appears the storms will develop south and southwestward into the stronger instability. The models are in fairly good agreement concerning instability, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z on Tuesday from Lubbock to Midland have 0-6 km shear around 40 knot owing mostly to speed shear above 700 mb. Low-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that storm mode could remain multicellular in spite of stronger shear aloft. Isolated large hail and a few marginally severe gust will be the primary threats. ...Central High Plains... Mid-level flow is forecast to be anticyclonic and northwesterly on Tuesday across the central Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of southern and central Colorado. The storms are expected to move east-southeastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will only be in the 20 to 25 knot range in southern and central Colorado, low-level lapse rates will likely be very steep in some areas. This could support a few marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will also possible. The threat should be concentrated near peak heating. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Just ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a narrow corridor of instability is expected from northeast Iowa into western Wisconsin, where MLCAPE could peak around 1000 J/kg. In addition, forecast soundings in the late afternoon from northwest Iowa into southeast Minnesota have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This could be enough for an isolated wind-damage and hail threat, especially with storms that rotate. However, lapse rates are not forecast to be steep. Cells that develop in areas with insufficient surface heating could remain unorganized. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains, central High Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains... A slow-moving shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, upslope easterly flow will be in place across a moist airmass over much of Texas. Model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms could be already going by morning across parts of west-central Texas. As surface temperature warm and instability develops across west and southwest Texas, it appears the storms will develop south and southwestward into the stronger instability. The models are in fairly good agreement concerning instability, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z on Tuesday from Lubbock to Midland have 0-6 km shear around 40 knot owing mostly to speed shear above 700 mb. Low-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that storm mode could remain multicellular in spite of stronger shear aloft. Isolated large hail and a few marginally severe gust will be the primary threats. ...Central High Plains... Mid-level flow is forecast to be anticyclonic and northwesterly on Tuesday across the central Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of southern and central Colorado. The storms are expected to move east-southeastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will only be in the 20 to 25 knot range in southern and central Colorado, low-level lapse rates will likely be very steep in some areas. This could support a few marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will also possible. The threat should be concentrated near peak heating. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Just ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a narrow corridor of instability is expected from northeast Iowa into western Wisconsin, where MLCAPE could peak around 1000 J/kg. In addition, forecast soundings in the late afternoon from northwest Iowa into southeast Minnesota have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This could be enough for an isolated wind-damage and hail threat, especially with storms that rotate. However, lapse rates are not forecast to be steep. Cells that develop in areas with insufficient surface heating could remain unorganized. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains, central High Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains... A slow-moving shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, upslope easterly flow will be in place across a moist airmass over much of Texas. Model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms could be already going by morning across parts of west-central Texas. As surface temperature warm and instability develops across west and southwest Texas, it appears the storms will develop south and southwestward into the stronger instability. The models are in fairly good agreement concerning instability, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z on Tuesday from Lubbock to Midland have 0-6 km shear around 40 knot owing mostly to speed shear above 700 mb. Low-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that storm mode could remain multicellular in spite of stronger shear aloft. Isolated large hail and a few marginally severe gust will be the primary threats. ...Central High Plains... Mid-level flow is forecast to be anticyclonic and northwesterly on Tuesday across the central Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of southern and central Colorado. The storms are expected to move east-southeastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will only be in the 20 to 25 knot range in southern and central Colorado, low-level lapse rates will likely be very steep in some areas. This could support a few marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will also possible. The threat should be concentrated near peak heating. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Just ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a narrow corridor of instability is expected from northeast Iowa into western Wisconsin, where MLCAPE could peak around 1000 J/kg. In addition, forecast soundings in the late afternoon from northwest Iowa into southeast Minnesota have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This could be enough for an isolated wind-damage and hail threat, especially with storms that rotate. However, lapse rates are not forecast to be steep. Cells that develop in areas with insufficient surface heating could remain unorganized. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains, central High Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains... A slow-moving shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, upslope easterly flow will be in place across a moist airmass over much of Texas. Model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms could be already going by morning across parts of west-central Texas. As surface temperature warm and instability develops across west and southwest Texas, it appears the storms will develop south and southwestward into the stronger instability. The models are in fairly good agreement concerning instability, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z on Tuesday from Lubbock to Midland have 0-6 km shear around 40 knot owing mostly to speed shear above 700 mb. Low-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that storm mode could remain multicellular in spite of stronger shear aloft. Isolated large hail and a few marginally severe gust will be the primary threats. ...Central High Plains... Mid-level flow is forecast to be anticyclonic and northwesterly on Tuesday across the central Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of southern and central Colorado. The storms are expected to move east-southeastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will only be in the 20 to 25 knot range in southern and central Colorado, low-level lapse rates will likely be very steep in some areas. This could support a few marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will also possible. The threat should be concentrated near peak heating. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Just ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a narrow corridor of instability is expected from northeast Iowa into western Wisconsin, where MLCAPE could peak around 1000 J/kg. In addition, forecast soundings in the late afternoon from northwest Iowa into southeast Minnesota have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This could be enough for an isolated wind-damage and hail threat, especially with storms that rotate. However, lapse rates are not forecast to be steep. Cells that develop in areas with insufficient surface heating could remain unorganized. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains, central High Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains... A slow-moving shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, upslope easterly flow will be in place across a moist airmass over much of Texas. Model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms could be already going by morning across parts of west-central Texas. As surface temperature warm and instability develops across west and southwest Texas, it appears the storms will develop south and southwestward into the stronger instability. The models are in fairly good agreement concerning instability, with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, NAM forecast soundings at 21Z on Tuesday from Lubbock to Midland have 0-6 km shear around 40 knot owing mostly to speed shear above 700 mb. Low-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak suggesting that storm mode could remain multicellular in spite of stronger shear aloft. Isolated large hail and a few marginally severe gust will be the primary threats. ...Central High Plains... Mid-level flow is forecast to be anticyclonic and northwesterly on Tuesday across the central Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of southern and central Colorado. The storms are expected to move east-southeastward into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will only be in the 20 to 25 knot range in southern and central Colorado, low-level lapse rates will likely be very steep in some areas. This could support a few marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will also possible. The threat should be concentrated near peak heating. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Just ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a narrow corridor of instability is expected from northeast Iowa into western Wisconsin, where MLCAPE could peak around 1000 J/kg. In addition, forecast soundings in the late afternoon from northwest Iowa into southeast Minnesota have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This could be enough for an isolated wind-damage and hail threat, especially with storms that rotate. However, lapse rates are not forecast to be steep. Cells that develop in areas with insufficient surface heating could remain unorganized. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Well-defined short-wave trough is currently located over eastern WA/OR, shifting east in line with late-evening model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into western MT by 12z then shift into central MT/northwest WY by 18z before progressing into the western Dakotas by early evening. Primary LLJ response will be across western ND into southeast SK, though some increase is expected into western NE during the evening. Associated surface front will surge across much of MT by 18z, arcing back across northwest WY. Current thinking is convection will develop along this boundary fairly early with NAM sounding for BYG at 18z exhibiting negligible CINH and MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Big Horn Mountains may be a focus for supercell initiation, though additional development is likely east of the mountains along/near the front over northeast WY. This activity will spread east toward the Black Hills region in response to the progressive short wave. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ...Southeast... Seasonally deep upper trough will hold across the eastern US through the day1 period. This flow regime will ensure modest-strong 500mb northwesterly flow across the southern Appalachians toward coastal SC/GA. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across southern AL/GA where surface temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 90s by 19z. This will effectively remove inhibition as convective temperatures are breached. Latest HREF guidance is very aggressive developing thunderstorms within this veered low-level flow along the frontal zone. Strong surface-6km bulk shear favors supercells and large hail/damaging winds are possible. In addition, there is some low risk for a brief tornado or two where coastal boundaries are involved. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered-numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop once again across the southern High Plains along the front side of a weak upper ridge. Early this morning, a multifaceted complex of storms is ongoing from northeast NM, arcing across the TX South Plains into the Edwards Plateau. An MCV may evolve from this complex which will drift southeast during the day. There is some concern that robust convection may ultimately evolve where adequate boundary-layer heating occurs. At this time there is a bit too much uncertainty regarding the convective debris/remnant MCS activity to introduce a SLGT risk, but this may ultimately be warranted in later outlooks. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Well-defined short-wave trough is currently located over eastern WA/OR, shifting east in line with late-evening model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into western MT by 12z then shift into central MT/northwest WY by 18z before progressing into the western Dakotas by early evening. Primary LLJ response will be across western ND into southeast SK, though some increase is expected into western NE during the evening. Associated surface front will surge across much of MT by 18z, arcing back across northwest WY. Current thinking is convection will develop along this boundary fairly early with NAM sounding for BYG at 18z exhibiting negligible CINH and MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Big Horn Mountains may be a focus for supercell initiation, though additional development is likely east of the mountains along/near the front over northeast WY. This activity will spread east toward the Black Hills region in response to the progressive short wave. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ...Southeast... Seasonally deep upper trough will hold across the eastern US through the day1 period. This flow regime will ensure modest-strong 500mb northwesterly flow across the southern Appalachians toward coastal SC/GA. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across southern AL/GA where surface temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 90s by 19z. This will effectively remove inhibition as convective temperatures are breached. Latest HREF guidance is very aggressive developing thunderstorms within this veered low-level flow along the frontal zone. Strong surface-6km bulk shear favors supercells and large hail/damaging winds are possible. In addition, there is some low risk for a brief tornado or two where coastal boundaries are involved. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered-numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop once again across the southern High Plains along the front side of a weak upper ridge. Early this morning, a multifaceted complex of storms is ongoing from northeast NM, arcing across the TX South Plains into the Edwards Plateau. An MCV may evolve from this complex which will drift southeast during the day. There is some concern that robust convection may ultimately evolve where adequate boundary-layer heating occurs. At this time there is a bit too much uncertainty regarding the convective debris/remnant MCS activity to introduce a SLGT risk, but this may ultimately be warranted in later outlooks. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Well-defined short-wave trough is currently located over eastern WA/OR, shifting east in line with late-evening model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into western MT by 12z then shift into central MT/northwest WY by 18z before progressing into the western Dakotas by early evening. Primary LLJ response will be across western ND into southeast SK, though some increase is expected into western NE during the evening. Associated surface front will surge across much of MT by 18z, arcing back across northwest WY. Current thinking is convection will develop along this boundary fairly early with NAM sounding for BYG at 18z exhibiting negligible CINH and MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Big Horn Mountains may be a focus for supercell initiation, though additional development is likely east of the mountains along/near the front over northeast WY. This activity will spread east toward the Black Hills region in response to the progressive short wave. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ...Southeast... Seasonally deep upper trough will hold across the eastern US through the day1 period. This flow regime will ensure modest-strong 500mb northwesterly flow across the southern Appalachians toward coastal SC/GA. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across southern AL/GA where surface temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 90s by 19z. This will effectively remove inhibition as convective temperatures are breached. Latest HREF guidance is very aggressive developing thunderstorms within this veered low-level flow along the frontal zone. Strong surface-6km bulk shear favors supercells and large hail/damaging winds are possible. In addition, there is some low risk for a brief tornado or two where coastal boundaries are involved. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered-numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop once again across the southern High Plains along the front side of a weak upper ridge. Early this morning, a multifaceted complex of storms is ongoing from northeast NM, arcing across the TX South Plains into the Edwards Plateau. An MCV may evolve from this complex which will drift southeast during the day. There is some concern that robust convection may ultimately evolve where adequate boundary-layer heating occurs. At this time there is a bit too much uncertainty regarding the convective debris/remnant MCS activity to introduce a SLGT risk, but this may ultimately be warranted in later outlooks. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Well-defined short-wave trough is currently located over eastern WA/OR, shifting east in line with late-evening model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into western MT by 12z then shift into central MT/northwest WY by 18z before progressing into the western Dakotas by early evening. Primary LLJ response will be across western ND into southeast SK, though some increase is expected into western NE during the evening. Associated surface front will surge across much of MT by 18z, arcing back across northwest WY. Current thinking is convection will develop along this boundary fairly early with NAM sounding for BYG at 18z exhibiting negligible CINH and MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Big Horn Mountains may be a focus for supercell initiation, though additional development is likely east of the mountains along/near the front over northeast WY. This activity will spread east toward the Black Hills region in response to the progressive short wave. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ...Southeast... Seasonally deep upper trough will hold across the eastern US through the day1 period. This flow regime will ensure modest-strong 500mb northwesterly flow across the southern Appalachians toward coastal SC/GA. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across southern AL/GA where surface temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 90s by 19z. This will effectively remove inhibition as convective temperatures are breached. Latest HREF guidance is very aggressive developing thunderstorms within this veered low-level flow along the frontal zone. Strong surface-6km bulk shear favors supercells and large hail/damaging winds are possible. In addition, there is some low risk for a brief tornado or two where coastal boundaries are involved. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered-numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop once again across the southern High Plains along the front side of a weak upper ridge. Early this morning, a multifaceted complex of storms is ongoing from northeast NM, arcing across the TX South Plains into the Edwards Plateau. An MCV may evolve from this complex which will drift southeast during the day. There is some concern that robust convection may ultimately evolve where adequate boundary-layer heating occurs. At this time there is a bit too much uncertainty regarding the convective debris/remnant MCS activity to introduce a SLGT risk, but this may ultimately be warranted in later outlooks. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Well-defined short-wave trough is currently located over eastern WA/OR, shifting east in line with late-evening model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into western MT by 12z then shift into central MT/northwest WY by 18z before progressing into the western Dakotas by early evening. Primary LLJ response will be across western ND into southeast SK, though some increase is expected into western NE during the evening. Associated surface front will surge across much of MT by 18z, arcing back across northwest WY. Current thinking is convection will develop along this boundary fairly early with NAM sounding for BYG at 18z exhibiting negligible CINH and MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Big Horn Mountains may be a focus for supercell initiation, though additional development is likely east of the mountains along/near the front over northeast WY. This activity will spread east toward the Black Hills region in response to the progressive short wave. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ...Southeast... Seasonally deep upper trough will hold across the eastern US through the day1 period. This flow regime will ensure modest-strong 500mb northwesterly flow across the southern Appalachians toward coastal SC/GA. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across southern AL/GA where surface temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 90s by 19z. This will effectively remove inhibition as convective temperatures are breached. Latest HREF guidance is very aggressive developing thunderstorms within this veered low-level flow along the frontal zone. Strong surface-6km bulk shear favors supercells and large hail/damaging winds are possible. In addition, there is some low risk for a brief tornado or two where coastal boundaries are involved. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered-numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop once again across the southern High Plains along the front side of a weak upper ridge. Early this morning, a multifaceted complex of storms is ongoing from northeast NM, arcing across the TX South Plains into the Edwards Plateau. An MCV may evolve from this complex which will drift southeast during the day. There is some concern that robust convection may ultimately evolve where adequate boundary-layer heating occurs. At this time there is a bit too much uncertainty regarding the convective debris/remnant MCS activity to introduce a SLGT risk, but this may ultimately be warranted in later outlooks. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/10/2024 Read more

MD 1224 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401... FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR INTO NORTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1224 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0916 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...Central/southern AR into northern MS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401... Valid 100216Z - 100345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401 continues. SUMMARY...A strong storm or two remains possible late this evening, but any remaining severe threat is expected to be isolated. DISCUSSION...Convection has generally weakened and become less organized this evening from central AR into northern MS, with a tendency for storms to be undercut by an outflow-reinforced front. However, relatively rich low-level moisture persists north of the outflow, and moderate buoyancy could still support a few stronger storms late this evening, with effective shear still marginally supportive of organized convection. Isolated hail and/or damaging gusts cannot be ruled out late this evening, especially with any left-moving cell (such as the severe storm earlier in Lee County, MS). However, if current trends continue, additional watch issuance across the area after the expiration of WW 401 is not anticipated. ..Dean/Bunting.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34489443 34839324 35029233 34589038 34028907 33458856 33078865 32998914 33109057 34199444 34489443 Read more