Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF GA/SC...THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible. ...GA/SC... Morning surface analysis shows a surface cold front sagging slowly southward across central GA and far southern SC. A moist low-level airmass is present in vicinity of the boundary, where substantial daytime heating will lead to a corridor of moderate CAPE by early afternoon. Most model guidance is in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along or just behind the front, tracking eastward and offshore by early evening. Low-level winds are strongly veered and rather weak, but fast westerly flow aloft will promote a few organized/supercell storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...WY/NE/Dakotas... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over western MT. This feature will track eastward today, with an associated surface boundary becoming established from western ND into eastern WY. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form along this boundary in a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates, veering low-level wind fields, and strong effective shear supportive of supercell storms capable large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is possible. Other more isolated but intense cells may form in the deeply-mixed boundary layer farther west across northern WY as well. ...West TX... A slow-moving southern stream shortwave trough over southern NM will result in strengthening westerly mid-level winds across parts of West TX today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a southeastward moving surface front over eastern NM by mid-afternoon and track across West TX through the evening. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates coupled with rather strong winds aloft will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Given the consistent signal in recent CAM solutions, have added a small SLGT for this scenario. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF GA/SC...THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible. ...GA/SC... Morning surface analysis shows a surface cold front sagging slowly southward across central GA and far southern SC. A moist low-level airmass is present in vicinity of the boundary, where substantial daytime heating will lead to a corridor of moderate CAPE by early afternoon. Most model guidance is in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along or just behind the front, tracking eastward and offshore by early evening. Low-level winds are strongly veered and rather weak, but fast westerly flow aloft will promote a few organized/supercell storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...WY/NE/Dakotas... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over western MT. This feature will track eastward today, with an associated surface boundary becoming established from western ND into eastern WY. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form along this boundary in a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates, veering low-level wind fields, and strong effective shear supportive of supercell storms capable large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is possible. Other more isolated but intense cells may form in the deeply-mixed boundary layer farther west across northern WY as well. ...West TX... A slow-moving southern stream shortwave trough over southern NM will result in strengthening westerly mid-level winds across parts of West TX today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a southeastward moving surface front over eastern NM by mid-afternoon and track across West TX through the evening. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates coupled with rather strong winds aloft will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Given the consistent signal in recent CAM solutions, have added a small SLGT for this scenario. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances southward across the Central Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is forecast south of the front by afternoon, where the models suggest that scattered thunderstorm development will take place. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Thursday. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along the southern edge of this broad mid-level jet, which should support a severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. On Friday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. Some models suggest that an axis of maximized low-level moisture will setup beneath the ridge over the central states. If this scenario pans out, then severe storms would be possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. The presence of the ridge and the lack of large-scale ascent casts doubt on any particular scenario. On Saturday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains, as the upper-level ridge moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a pocket of moderate instability could be in place across the Dakotas and Minnesota, as is suggested by the ECMWF. This area would be favored for severe storm development. However, uncertainty is still substantial at this range, especially due to significant spread among the model solutions. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday and Monday, model forecasts suggest that a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the north-central U.S., as multiple short troughs move northeastward through the region. Scattered severe storms will be possible each day ahead of these features in areas that destabilize the most, with the greatest potential likely from Nebraska northward into the Dakotas. However, model spread continues to be large late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Once the model solutions become in better agreement, a 15 percent contour may need to be added in parts of the north-central states for either Sunday or Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances southward across the Central Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is forecast south of the front by afternoon, where the models suggest that scattered thunderstorm development will take place. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Thursday. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along the southern edge of this broad mid-level jet, which should support a severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. On Friday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. Some models suggest that an axis of maximized low-level moisture will setup beneath the ridge over the central states. If this scenario pans out, then severe storms would be possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. The presence of the ridge and the lack of large-scale ascent casts doubt on any particular scenario. On Saturday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains, as the upper-level ridge moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a pocket of moderate instability could be in place across the Dakotas and Minnesota, as is suggested by the ECMWF. This area would be favored for severe storm development. However, uncertainty is still substantial at this range, especially due to significant spread among the model solutions. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday and Monday, model forecasts suggest that a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the north-central U.S., as multiple short troughs move northeastward through the region. Scattered severe storms will be possible each day ahead of these features in areas that destabilize the most, with the greatest potential likely from Nebraska northward into the Dakotas. However, model spread continues to be large late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Once the model solutions become in better agreement, a 15 percent contour may need to be added in parts of the north-central states for either Sunday or Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances southward across the Central Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is forecast south of the front by afternoon, where the models suggest that scattered thunderstorm development will take place. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Thursday. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along the southern edge of this broad mid-level jet, which should support a severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. On Friday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. Some models suggest that an axis of maximized low-level moisture will setup beneath the ridge over the central states. If this scenario pans out, then severe storms would be possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. The presence of the ridge and the lack of large-scale ascent casts doubt on any particular scenario. On Saturday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains, as the upper-level ridge moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a pocket of moderate instability could be in place across the Dakotas and Minnesota, as is suggested by the ECMWF. This area would be favored for severe storm development. However, uncertainty is still substantial at this range, especially due to significant spread among the model solutions. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday and Monday, model forecasts suggest that a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the north-central U.S., as multiple short troughs move northeastward through the region. Scattered severe storms will be possible each day ahead of these features in areas that destabilize the most, with the greatest potential likely from Nebraska northward into the Dakotas. However, model spread continues to be large late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Once the model solutions become in better agreement, a 15 percent contour may need to be added in parts of the north-central states for either Sunday or Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances southward across the Central Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is forecast south of the front by afternoon, where the models suggest that scattered thunderstorm development will take place. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Thursday. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along the southern edge of this broad mid-level jet, which should support a severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. On Friday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. Some models suggest that an axis of maximized low-level moisture will setup beneath the ridge over the central states. If this scenario pans out, then severe storms would be possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. The presence of the ridge and the lack of large-scale ascent casts doubt on any particular scenario. On Saturday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains, as the upper-level ridge moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a pocket of moderate instability could be in place across the Dakotas and Minnesota, as is suggested by the ECMWF. This area would be favored for severe storm development. However, uncertainty is still substantial at this range, especially due to significant spread among the model solutions. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday and Monday, model forecasts suggest that a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the north-central U.S., as multiple short troughs move northeastward through the region. Scattered severe storms will be possible each day ahead of these features in areas that destabilize the most, with the greatest potential likely from Nebraska northward into the Dakotas. However, model spread continues to be large late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Once the model solutions become in better agreement, a 15 percent contour may need to be added in parts of the north-central states for either Sunday or Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances southward across the Central Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is forecast south of the front by afternoon, where the models suggest that scattered thunderstorm development will take place. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Thursday. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along the southern edge of this broad mid-level jet, which should support a severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. On Friday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. Some models suggest that an axis of maximized low-level moisture will setup beneath the ridge over the central states. If this scenario pans out, then severe storms would be possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. The presence of the ridge and the lack of large-scale ascent casts doubt on any particular scenario. On Saturday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains, as the upper-level ridge moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a pocket of moderate instability could be in place across the Dakotas and Minnesota, as is suggested by the ECMWF. This area would be favored for severe storm development. However, uncertainty is still substantial at this range, especially due to significant spread among the model solutions. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday and Monday, model forecasts suggest that a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the north-central U.S., as multiple short troughs move northeastward through the region. Scattered severe storms will be possible each day ahead of these features in areas that destabilize the most, with the greatest potential likely from Nebraska northward into the Dakotas. However, model spread continues to be large late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Once the model solutions become in better agreement, a 15 percent contour may need to be added in parts of the north-central states for either Sunday or Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances southward across the Central Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is forecast south of the front by afternoon, where the models suggest that scattered thunderstorm development will take place. In addition, a mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across the north-central U.S. on Thursday. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along the southern edge of this broad mid-level jet, which should support a severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. On Friday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. Some models suggest that an axis of maximized low-level moisture will setup beneath the ridge over the central states. If this scenario pans out, then severe storms would be possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. The presence of the ridge and the lack of large-scale ascent casts doubt on any particular scenario. On Saturday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains, as the upper-level ridge moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a pocket of moderate instability could be in place across the Dakotas and Minnesota, as is suggested by the ECMWF. This area would be favored for severe storm development. However, uncertainty is still substantial at this range, especially due to significant spread among the model solutions. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday and Monday, model forecasts suggest that a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the north-central U.S., as multiple short troughs move northeastward through the region. Scattered severe storms will be possible each day ahead of these features in areas that destabilize the most, with the greatest potential likely from Nebraska northward into the Dakotas. However, model spread continues to be large late in the Day 4 to 8 period. Once the model solutions become in better agreement, a 15 percent contour may need to be added in parts of the north-central states for either Sunday or Monday. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Wednesday from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet moves eastward across the far northern states. At the surface, A cold front will advance southeastward through the northern Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures and destabilization will likely result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the region during the late afternoon and early evening, as low-level flow increases. The exit region of the approaching mid-level jet will also increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear, making conditions favorable for organized storms. By late afternoon, the strongest instability is forecast to be from eastern South Dakota into central Minnesota, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 00Z/Thursday have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Some soundings suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates could approach 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of cells. A wind-damage threat will also become likely as the storms gradually grow upscale. Some models suggest that a severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a cluster remains intact and moves eastward into the western Great Lakes. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Wednesday from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet moves eastward across the far northern states. At the surface, A cold front will advance southeastward through the northern Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures and destabilization will likely result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the region during the late afternoon and early evening, as low-level flow increases. The exit region of the approaching mid-level jet will also increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear, making conditions favorable for organized storms. By late afternoon, the strongest instability is forecast to be from eastern South Dakota into central Minnesota, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 00Z/Thursday have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Some soundings suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates could approach 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of cells. A wind-damage threat will also become likely as the storms gradually grow upscale. Some models suggest that a severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a cluster remains intact and moves eastward into the western Great Lakes. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Wednesday from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet moves eastward across the far northern states. At the surface, A cold front will advance southeastward through the northern Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures and destabilization will likely result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the region during the late afternoon and early evening, as low-level flow increases. The exit region of the approaching mid-level jet will also increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear, making conditions favorable for organized storms. By late afternoon, the strongest instability is forecast to be from eastern South Dakota into central Minnesota, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 00Z/Thursday have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Some soundings suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates could approach 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of cells. A wind-damage threat will also become likely as the storms gradually grow upscale. Some models suggest that a severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a cluster remains intact and moves eastward into the western Great Lakes. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Wednesday from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet moves eastward across the far northern states. At the surface, A cold front will advance southeastward through the northern Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures and destabilization will likely result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the region during the late afternoon and early evening, as low-level flow increases. The exit region of the approaching mid-level jet will also increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear, making conditions favorable for organized storms. By late afternoon, the strongest instability is forecast to be from eastern South Dakota into central Minnesota, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 00Z/Thursday have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Some soundings suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates could approach 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of cells. A wind-damage threat will also become likely as the storms gradually grow upscale. Some models suggest that a severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a cluster remains intact and moves eastward into the western Great Lakes. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Wednesday from parts of the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet moves eastward across the far northern states. At the surface, A cold front will advance southeastward through the northern Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures and destabilization will likely result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the region during the late afternoon and early evening, as low-level flow increases. The exit region of the approaching mid-level jet will also increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear, making conditions favorable for organized storms. By late afternoon, the strongest instability is forecast to be from eastern South Dakota into central Minnesota, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 00Z/Thursday have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Some soundings suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates could approach 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of cells. A wind-damage threat will also become likely as the storms gradually grow upscale. Some models suggest that a severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a cluster remains intact and moves eastward into the western Great Lakes. ..Broyles.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds and the overall fire-weather threat. Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will favor continued warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest, where fuels continue to dry. While these warm/dry conditions will support locally elevated fire-weather conditions, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds and the overall fire-weather threat. Farther north, moderate midlevel westerly flow on the backside of a shortwave trough will cross the northern Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are possible within the Cascade gaps over central WA and northern OR -- potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more