Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Monday -- Eastern Dakotas/Minnesota... A southwesterly midlevel jet is forecast to overspread a seasonally moist/unstable environment on Monday. Large-scale ascent will remain somewhat nebulous as the more apparent synoptic upper trough remains over the northern Rockies. However, forecast guidance suggests a lead shortwave impulse may migrate through southwesterly mid/upper flow. Favorable vertical shear will support organized severe storms, though coverage and convective evolution remains uncertain. ...Days 6-8/Tue-Thu... Beyond Day 5/Monday, forecast guidance generally shows an overall slower trend with eastward progress of a western upper trough. Severe potential may increase across portions of the northern/central Plains around Day 6/Tue or Day 7/Wed if the trough ejects east/northeast. If this occurs, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow would overspread a seasonally moist and unstable environment ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This overall pattern would support some severe potential somewhere from the northern into central Plains. The GFS suite of guidance is more progressive and favors this scenario. However, the ECMWF maintains a stronger eastern upper ridge with little eastward progression of the western upper trough through mid-week. Nevertheless, a broad area of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will impinge on the northern Plains vicinity, and some severe potential seems probable, but location and timing is too uncertain to include probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Monday -- Eastern Dakotas/Minnesota... A southwesterly midlevel jet is forecast to overspread a seasonally moist/unstable environment on Monday. Large-scale ascent will remain somewhat nebulous as the more apparent synoptic upper trough remains over the northern Rockies. However, forecast guidance suggests a lead shortwave impulse may migrate through southwesterly mid/upper flow. Favorable vertical shear will support organized severe storms, though coverage and convective evolution remains uncertain. ...Days 6-8/Tue-Thu... Beyond Day 5/Monday, forecast guidance generally shows an overall slower trend with eastward progress of a western upper trough. Severe potential may increase across portions of the northern/central Plains around Day 6/Tue or Day 7/Wed if the trough ejects east/northeast. If this occurs, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow would overspread a seasonally moist and unstable environment ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This overall pattern would support some severe potential somewhere from the northern into central Plains. The GFS suite of guidance is more progressive and favors this scenario. However, the ECMWF maintains a stronger eastern upper ridge with little eastward progression of the western upper trough through mid-week. Nevertheless, a broad area of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will impinge on the northern Plains vicinity, and some severe potential seems probable, but location and timing is too uncertain to include probabilities. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong southerly flow aloft overspreads western AZ into southern NV and UT. This will promote a tightening surface pressure gradient and 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds across these areas. These winds, coupled with a deep/dry boundary layer (single-digit RH) and receptive fuels, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of AZ into UT -- aided by ascent preceding the aforementioned midlevel trough. If afternoon thunderstorms can develop, these storms would be high-based in an environment characterized by a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile -- and isolated lightning-induced ignitions would be possible. However, confidence in afternoon storm development is low owing to very marginal instability, precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Confidence in thunderstorm development is higher during the overnight period, when a mix of wet/dry storms are expected. However, increasing boundary-layer RH and midlevel moisture may temper the overall threat of ignitions. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong southerly flow aloft overspreads western AZ into southern NV and UT. This will promote a tightening surface pressure gradient and 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds across these areas. These winds, coupled with a deep/dry boundary layer (single-digit RH) and receptive fuels, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of AZ into UT -- aided by ascent preceding the aforementioned midlevel trough. If afternoon thunderstorms can develop, these storms would be high-based in an environment characterized by a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile -- and isolated lightning-induced ignitions would be possible. However, confidence in afternoon storm development is low owing to very marginal instability, precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Confidence in thunderstorm development is higher during the overnight period, when a mix of wet/dry storms are expected. However, increasing boundary-layer RH and midlevel moisture may temper the overall threat of ignitions. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong southerly flow aloft overspreads western AZ into southern NV and UT. This will promote a tightening surface pressure gradient and 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds across these areas. These winds, coupled with a deep/dry boundary layer (single-digit RH) and receptive fuels, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of AZ into UT -- aided by ascent preceding the aforementioned midlevel trough. If afternoon thunderstorms can develop, these storms would be high-based in an environment characterized by a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile -- and isolated lightning-induced ignitions would be possible. However, confidence in afternoon storm development is low owing to very marginal instability, precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Confidence in thunderstorm development is higher during the overnight period, when a mix of wet/dry storms are expected. However, increasing boundary-layer RH and midlevel moisture may temper the overall threat of ignitions. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong southerly flow aloft overspreads western AZ into southern NV and UT. This will promote a tightening surface pressure gradient and 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds across these areas. These winds, coupled with a deep/dry boundary layer (single-digit RH) and receptive fuels, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of AZ into UT -- aided by ascent preceding the aforementioned midlevel trough. If afternoon thunderstorms can develop, these storms would be high-based in an environment characterized by a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile -- and isolated lightning-induced ignitions would be possible. However, confidence in afternoon storm development is low owing to very marginal instability, precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Confidence in thunderstorm development is higher during the overnight period, when a mix of wet/dry storms are expected. However, increasing boundary-layer RH and midlevel moisture may temper the overall threat of ignitions. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong southerly flow aloft overspreads western AZ into southern NV and UT. This will promote a tightening surface pressure gradient and 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds across these areas. These winds, coupled with a deep/dry boundary layer (single-digit RH) and receptive fuels, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of AZ into UT -- aided by ascent preceding the aforementioned midlevel trough. If afternoon thunderstorms can develop, these storms would be high-based in an environment characterized by a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile -- and isolated lightning-induced ignitions would be possible. However, confidence in afternoon storm development is low owing to very marginal instability, precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Confidence in thunderstorm development is higher during the overnight period, when a mix of wet/dry storms are expected. However, increasing boundary-layer RH and midlevel moisture may temper the overall threat of ignitions. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the Middle Missouri Valley vicinity, as well as far northeast Montana into western/central North Dakota. ...Mid-MO Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough over the central Plains will lift east/northeast to the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. At the surface, a stalled boundary over northeast KS into central MO is forecast to lift northward through the day. As this occurs, mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. At least a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization is forecast within the warm frontal zone. Vertically veering wind profiles, with around 45 kt effective shear magnitudes, will support organized convection/supercells. However, convective evolution is a bit uncertain and may be influenced by remnant mesoscale features from convection late in the Day 2/Friday period, or ongoing convection Saturday morning. While details remain uncertain, the overall pattern will be favorable for a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/North Dakota... An upper trough will develop south and east across the northern Rockies on Saturday. By 00z, enhanced west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern High Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east across MT, sweeping across eastern MT and the western Dakotas during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the front, southeasterly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints into the region, aiding in moderate destabilization. Favorable vertical shear for organized storms will support at least an isolated risk of severe storms during the evening and early overnight period ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the Middle Missouri Valley vicinity, as well as far northeast Montana into western/central North Dakota. ...Mid-MO Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough over the central Plains will lift east/northeast to the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. At the surface, a stalled boundary over northeast KS into central MO is forecast to lift northward through the day. As this occurs, mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. At least a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization is forecast within the warm frontal zone. Vertically veering wind profiles, with around 45 kt effective shear magnitudes, will support organized convection/supercells. However, convective evolution is a bit uncertain and may be influenced by remnant mesoscale features from convection late in the Day 2/Friday period, or ongoing convection Saturday morning. While details remain uncertain, the overall pattern will be favorable for a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/North Dakota... An upper trough will develop south and east across the northern Rockies on Saturday. By 00z, enhanced west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern High Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east across MT, sweeping across eastern MT and the western Dakotas during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the front, southeasterly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints into the region, aiding in moderate destabilization. Favorable vertical shear for organized storms will support at least an isolated risk of severe storms during the evening and early overnight period ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the Middle Missouri Valley vicinity, as well as far northeast Montana into western/central North Dakota. ...Mid-MO Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough over the central Plains will lift east/northeast to the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. At the surface, a stalled boundary over northeast KS into central MO is forecast to lift northward through the day. As this occurs, mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. At least a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization is forecast within the warm frontal zone. Vertically veering wind profiles, with around 45 kt effective shear magnitudes, will support organized convection/supercells. However, convective evolution is a bit uncertain and may be influenced by remnant mesoscale features from convection late in the Day 2/Friday period, or ongoing convection Saturday morning. While details remain uncertain, the overall pattern will be favorable for a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/North Dakota... An upper trough will develop south and east across the northern Rockies on Saturday. By 00z, enhanced west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern High Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east across MT, sweeping across eastern MT and the western Dakotas during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the front, southeasterly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints into the region, aiding in moderate destabilization. Favorable vertical shear for organized storms will support at least an isolated risk of severe storms during the evening and early overnight period ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the Middle Missouri Valley vicinity, as well as far northeast Montana into western/central North Dakota. ...Mid-MO Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough over the central Plains will lift east/northeast to the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. At the surface, a stalled boundary over northeast KS into central MO is forecast to lift northward through the day. As this occurs, mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. At least a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization is forecast within the warm frontal zone. Vertically veering wind profiles, with around 45 kt effective shear magnitudes, will support organized convection/supercells. However, convective evolution is a bit uncertain and may be influenced by remnant mesoscale features from convection late in the Day 2/Friday period, or ongoing convection Saturday morning. While details remain uncertain, the overall pattern will be favorable for a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/North Dakota... An upper trough will develop south and east across the northern Rockies on Saturday. By 00z, enhanced west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern High Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east across MT, sweeping across eastern MT and the western Dakotas during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the front, southeasterly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints into the region, aiding in moderate destabilization. Favorable vertical shear for organized storms will support at least an isolated risk of severe storms during the evening and early overnight period ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the Middle Missouri Valley vicinity, as well as far northeast Montana into western/central North Dakota. ...Mid-MO Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough over the central Plains will lift east/northeast to the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. At the surface, a stalled boundary over northeast KS into central MO is forecast to lift northward through the day. As this occurs, mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. At least a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization is forecast within the warm frontal zone. Vertically veering wind profiles, with around 45 kt effective shear magnitudes, will support organized convection/supercells. However, convective evolution is a bit uncertain and may be influenced by remnant mesoscale features from convection late in the Day 2/Friday period, or ongoing convection Saturday morning. While details remain uncertain, the overall pattern will be favorable for a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/North Dakota... An upper trough will develop south and east across the northern Rockies on Saturday. By 00z, enhanced west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern High Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east across MT, sweeping across eastern MT and the western Dakotas during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the front, southeasterly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints into the region, aiding in moderate destabilization. Favorable vertical shear for organized storms will support at least an isolated risk of severe storms during the evening and early overnight period ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts, some to 80 mph, will be possible from Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and early evening. ...Central Plains Vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley is forecast to pivot east/northeast toward the central Rockies by Friday evening. This feature will result in height falls across the central High Plains vicinity, aiding in the development of lee surface troughing across the High Plains. Meanwhile, a stalled surface front is expected to be oriented across northern KS into western NE. Southerly low-level flow along and west of the boundary will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across much of KS into eastern CO and western NE (with somewhat lower dewpoints extending into southeast MT). A strong EML will be in place across the region, and steep midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg). Thunderstorms are likely to initially develop in upslope flow closer to higher terrain, and gradually shift east/northeast into the High Plains of northeast CO. These initial storms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging gusts given a deeply-mixed boundary-layer. With time, a low-level southwesterly jet is expected to increase toward 00z and thunderstorm clusters may organize into an east/northeast propagating bow/small MCS. This activity will pose a risk for severe gusts, with perhaps a couple significant gusts to 80 mph possible across southwest NE/northwest KS. The north and east extent of severe potential into the late evening/overnight hours should gradually diminish, especially across NE, as poor moisture return north of the surface boundary results in a stabilizing airmass. There is some potential that severe storms could persist along the stalled surface boundary into parts of eastern KS, but confidence in this scenario is too low. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along the surface trough extending into parts of the northern High Plains, as well as south into portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM. ...Northeast Vicinity... An upper trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to develop east/southeast across the region during the daytime hours. Strong heating of a seasonally moist airmass will result in modest destabilization by midday. Vertical shear will be sufficient to support organized cells and clusters. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary-layer to around 850 mb and steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated severe/scattered damaging gusts will be possible with this activity. The surface cold front should mostly move offshore by 00z. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts, some to 80 mph, will be possible from Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and early evening. ...Central Plains Vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley is forecast to pivot east/northeast toward the central Rockies by Friday evening. This feature will result in height falls across the central High Plains vicinity, aiding in the development of lee surface troughing across the High Plains. Meanwhile, a stalled surface front is expected to be oriented across northern KS into western NE. Southerly low-level flow along and west of the boundary will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across much of KS into eastern CO and western NE (with somewhat lower dewpoints extending into southeast MT). A strong EML will be in place across the region, and steep midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg). Thunderstorms are likely to initially develop in upslope flow closer to higher terrain, and gradually shift east/northeast into the High Plains of northeast CO. These initial storms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging gusts given a deeply-mixed boundary-layer. With time, a low-level southwesterly jet is expected to increase toward 00z and thunderstorm clusters may organize into an east/northeast propagating bow/small MCS. This activity will pose a risk for severe gusts, with perhaps a couple significant gusts to 80 mph possible across southwest NE/northwest KS. The north and east extent of severe potential into the late evening/overnight hours should gradually diminish, especially across NE, as poor moisture return north of the surface boundary results in a stabilizing airmass. There is some potential that severe storms could persist along the stalled surface boundary into parts of eastern KS, but confidence in this scenario is too low. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along the surface trough extending into parts of the northern High Plains, as well as south into portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM. ...Northeast Vicinity... An upper trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to develop east/southeast across the region during the daytime hours. Strong heating of a seasonally moist airmass will result in modest destabilization by midday. Vertical shear will be sufficient to support organized cells and clusters. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary-layer to around 850 mb and steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated severe/scattered damaging gusts will be possible with this activity. The surface cold front should mostly move offshore by 00z. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts, some to 80 mph, will be possible from Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and early evening. ...Central Plains Vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley is forecast to pivot east/northeast toward the central Rockies by Friday evening. This feature will result in height falls across the central High Plains vicinity, aiding in the development of lee surface troughing across the High Plains. Meanwhile, a stalled surface front is expected to be oriented across northern KS into western NE. Southerly low-level flow along and west of the boundary will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across much of KS into eastern CO and western NE (with somewhat lower dewpoints extending into southeast MT). A strong EML will be in place across the region, and steep midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg). Thunderstorms are likely to initially develop in upslope flow closer to higher terrain, and gradually shift east/northeast into the High Plains of northeast CO. These initial storms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging gusts given a deeply-mixed boundary-layer. With time, a low-level southwesterly jet is expected to increase toward 00z and thunderstorm clusters may organize into an east/northeast propagating bow/small MCS. This activity will pose a risk for severe gusts, with perhaps a couple significant gusts to 80 mph possible across southwest NE/northwest KS. The north and east extent of severe potential into the late evening/overnight hours should gradually diminish, especially across NE, as poor moisture return north of the surface boundary results in a stabilizing airmass. There is some potential that severe storms could persist along the stalled surface boundary into parts of eastern KS, but confidence in this scenario is too low. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along the surface trough extending into parts of the northern High Plains, as well as south into portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM. ...Northeast Vicinity... An upper trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to develop east/southeast across the region during the daytime hours. Strong heating of a seasonally moist airmass will result in modest destabilization by midday. Vertical shear will be sufficient to support organized cells and clusters. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary-layer to around 850 mb and steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated severe/scattered damaging gusts will be possible with this activity. The surface cold front should mostly move offshore by 00z. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts, some to 80 mph, will be possible from Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and early evening. ...Central Plains Vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley is forecast to pivot east/northeast toward the central Rockies by Friday evening. This feature will result in height falls across the central High Plains vicinity, aiding in the development of lee surface troughing across the High Plains. Meanwhile, a stalled surface front is expected to be oriented across northern KS into western NE. Southerly low-level flow along and west of the boundary will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across much of KS into eastern CO and western NE (with somewhat lower dewpoints extending into southeast MT). A strong EML will be in place across the region, and steep midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg). Thunderstorms are likely to initially develop in upslope flow closer to higher terrain, and gradually shift east/northeast into the High Plains of northeast CO. These initial storms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging gusts given a deeply-mixed boundary-layer. With time, a low-level southwesterly jet is expected to increase toward 00z and thunderstorm clusters may organize into an east/northeast propagating bow/small MCS. This activity will pose a risk for severe gusts, with perhaps a couple significant gusts to 80 mph possible across southwest NE/northwest KS. The north and east extent of severe potential into the late evening/overnight hours should gradually diminish, especially across NE, as poor moisture return north of the surface boundary results in a stabilizing airmass. There is some potential that severe storms could persist along the stalled surface boundary into parts of eastern KS, but confidence in this scenario is too low. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along the surface trough extending into parts of the northern High Plains, as well as south into portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM. ...Northeast Vicinity... An upper trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to develop east/southeast across the region during the daytime hours. Strong heating of a seasonally moist airmass will result in modest destabilization by midday. Vertical shear will be sufficient to support organized cells and clusters. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary-layer to around 850 mb and steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated severe/scattered damaging gusts will be possible with this activity. The surface cold front should mostly move offshore by 00z. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more