Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1246 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR UPPER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Areas affected...Upper MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131655Z - 131900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and/or hail are possible across Upper Michigan as thunderstorm coverage increasing this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery has shown a gradually increasing depth to the cumulus along and just ahead of the cold front pushing southeastward across the region. Regional radar imagery and lightning data reveal that convective initiation has occurred across Marquette County MI as well as the cell that is just offshore north of the Marquette/Alger county line. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the next hour or so as the airmass continues to destabilize and the front pushes southeastward. Buoyancy is expected to remain fairly modest with MLCAPE likely remaining below 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is already strong, with the MQT VAD sampling over 60 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear, with some additional strengthening possible as mid-level flow increases. General expectation is for a fast-moving multicellular mode, with a few isolated storms briefly becoming strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts and perhaps even an instance or two of hail. Severe coverage is expected to be limited, likely precluding the need for watch, but convective trends will be monitored closely. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 46108488 46018527 45878606 45668668 45608765 45788859 46278912 46748832 46808669 46838566 46798482 46108488 Read more

WW 0408 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0408 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0408 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0408 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0408 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0408 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 13 18:05:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through the evening on Friday along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary categorical change this cycle is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southward into the more deeply mixed air with thunderstorms expected to develop off the Raton Mesa/Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This includes expansion of the significant severe wind highlight for gusts to around 80 mph. A southern-stream shortwave trough currently off the northern Baja CA coast will reach the Four Corners area by Friday afternoon and progress towards the central High Plains through early Saturday. This feature will likely dampen during the D2 period. The bulk of mid to upper-flow enhancement will be confined along the southern arc of the trough, near/ahead of substantial warming within the southwest quadrant of the trough. As such, the overall kinematic profile will be relatively modest by typical central High Plains standards. But the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching trough will support scattered to widespread thunderstorm development during the afternoon off the higher terrain onto the adjacent plains. A quasi-stationary front, modulated by D1 convection, should be draped from the Ozark Plateau west-northwest into the central High Plains. Moderate uncertainty exists with regard to placement of the front in western KS/eastern CO by peak heating, with hot temperatures expected within the deeply mixed air mass to its south. A confined plume of enhanced low-level moisture will be present along and just north of the front emanating west-northwest from the Ozarks. This should support a corridor of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid initially steep mid-level lapse rates. Given the modest deep-layer shear profiles and pervasive convective coverage, a cluster mode should dominate as storms spread onto the High Plains. As they impinge on the greater buoyancy plume/frontal zone, a bowing structure or two may develop as a modestly organized QLCS moves east-northeast into western parts of KS/NE. Scattered severe wind swaths and some hail will be possible, peaking in the late afternoon to dusk. The north and east extent of the threat should slowly wane in both intensity/coverage Friday night. ...New England to the central Appalachians... A series of shortwave impulses embedded within a broader mid/upper trough over ON/QC and the Great Lakes will shift east across the Northeast States through Friday Night. One of these impulses should amplify somewhat as it tracks from the southern Great Plains into NY/PA. A surface cold front should extend from New England southwestward into the OH Valley on Friday afternoon, with a lee trough east of the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively steeper with northern extent into New England and weaker with southern extent into the Mid-Atlantic States and the central Appalachians. However, deeper boundary-layer warming/mixing is anticipated with southern extent. A broad plume of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg is anticipated. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon. While the bulk of strong mid to upper-level southwesterly flow should lag behind the boundary and largely parallel it as well, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells capable of isolated severe hail and damaging winds across New England. With southern extent, strong gusts within multicell clusters should yield sporadic wind damage. The level 2-SLGT risk corridor in the Northeast represents the relatively more favorable potential for cells/clusters to produce scattered damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through the evening on Friday along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary categorical change this cycle is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southward into the more deeply mixed air with thunderstorms expected to develop off the Raton Mesa/Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This includes expansion of the significant severe wind highlight for gusts to around 80 mph. A southern-stream shortwave trough currently off the northern Baja CA coast will reach the Four Corners area by Friday afternoon and progress towards the central High Plains through early Saturday. This feature will likely dampen during the D2 period. The bulk of mid to upper-flow enhancement will be confined along the southern arc of the trough, near/ahead of substantial warming within the southwest quadrant of the trough. As such, the overall kinematic profile will be relatively modest by typical central High Plains standards. But the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching trough will support scattered to widespread thunderstorm development during the afternoon off the higher terrain onto the adjacent plains. A quasi-stationary front, modulated by D1 convection, should be draped from the Ozark Plateau west-northwest into the central High Plains. Moderate uncertainty exists with regard to placement of the front in western KS/eastern CO by peak heating, with hot temperatures expected within the deeply mixed air mass to its south. A confined plume of enhanced low-level moisture will be present along and just north of the front emanating west-northwest from the Ozarks. This should support a corridor of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid initially steep mid-level lapse rates. Given the modest deep-layer shear profiles and pervasive convective coverage, a cluster mode should dominate as storms spread onto the High Plains. As they impinge on the greater buoyancy plume/frontal zone, a bowing structure or two may develop as a modestly organized QLCS moves east-northeast into western parts of KS/NE. Scattered severe wind swaths and some hail will be possible, peaking in the late afternoon to dusk. The north and east extent of the threat should slowly wane in both intensity/coverage Friday night. ...New England to the central Appalachians... A series of shortwave impulses embedded within a broader mid/upper trough over ON/QC and the Great Lakes will shift east across the Northeast States through Friday Night. One of these impulses should amplify somewhat as it tracks from the southern Great Plains into NY/PA. A surface cold front should extend from New England southwestward into the OH Valley on Friday afternoon, with a lee trough east of the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively steeper with northern extent into New England and weaker with southern extent into the Mid-Atlantic States and the central Appalachians. However, deeper boundary-layer warming/mixing is anticipated with southern extent. A broad plume of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg is anticipated. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon. While the bulk of strong mid to upper-level southwesterly flow should lag behind the boundary and largely parallel it as well, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells capable of isolated severe hail and damaging winds across New England. With southern extent, strong gusts within multicell clusters should yield sporadic wind damage. The level 2-SLGT risk corridor in the Northeast represents the relatively more favorable potential for cells/clusters to produce scattered damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through the evening on Friday along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary categorical change this cycle is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southward into the more deeply mixed air with thunderstorms expected to develop off the Raton Mesa/Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This includes expansion of the significant severe wind highlight for gusts to around 80 mph. A southern-stream shortwave trough currently off the northern Baja CA coast will reach the Four Corners area by Friday afternoon and progress towards the central High Plains through early Saturday. This feature will likely dampen during the D2 period. The bulk of mid to upper-flow enhancement will be confined along the southern arc of the trough, near/ahead of substantial warming within the southwest quadrant of the trough. As such, the overall kinematic profile will be relatively modest by typical central High Plains standards. But the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching trough will support scattered to widespread thunderstorm development during the afternoon off the higher terrain onto the adjacent plains. A quasi-stationary front, modulated by D1 convection, should be draped from the Ozark Plateau west-northwest into the central High Plains. Moderate uncertainty exists with regard to placement of the front in western KS/eastern CO by peak heating, with hot temperatures expected within the deeply mixed air mass to its south. A confined plume of enhanced low-level moisture will be present along and just north of the front emanating west-northwest from the Ozarks. This should support a corridor of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid initially steep mid-level lapse rates. Given the modest deep-layer shear profiles and pervasive convective coverage, a cluster mode should dominate as storms spread onto the High Plains. As they impinge on the greater buoyancy plume/frontal zone, a bowing structure or two may develop as a modestly organized QLCS moves east-northeast into western parts of KS/NE. Scattered severe wind swaths and some hail will be possible, peaking in the late afternoon to dusk. The north and east extent of the threat should slowly wane in both intensity/coverage Friday night. ...New England to the central Appalachians... A series of shortwave impulses embedded within a broader mid/upper trough over ON/QC and the Great Lakes will shift east across the Northeast States through Friday Night. One of these impulses should amplify somewhat as it tracks from the southern Great Plains into NY/PA. A surface cold front should extend from New England southwestward into the OH Valley on Friday afternoon, with a lee trough east of the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively steeper with northern extent into New England and weaker with southern extent into the Mid-Atlantic States and the central Appalachians. However, deeper boundary-layer warming/mixing is anticipated with southern extent. A broad plume of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg is anticipated. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon. While the bulk of strong mid to upper-level southwesterly flow should lag behind the boundary and largely parallel it as well, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells capable of isolated severe hail and damaging winds across New England. With southern extent, strong gusts within multicell clusters should yield sporadic wind damage. The level 2-SLGT risk corridor in the Northeast represents the relatively more favorable potential for cells/clusters to produce scattered damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through the evening on Friday along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary categorical change this cycle is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southward into the more deeply mixed air with thunderstorms expected to develop off the Raton Mesa/Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This includes expansion of the significant severe wind highlight for gusts to around 80 mph. A southern-stream shortwave trough currently off the northern Baja CA coast will reach the Four Corners area by Friday afternoon and progress towards the central High Plains through early Saturday. This feature will likely dampen during the D2 period. The bulk of mid to upper-flow enhancement will be confined along the southern arc of the trough, near/ahead of substantial warming within the southwest quadrant of the trough. As such, the overall kinematic profile will be relatively modest by typical central High Plains standards. But the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching trough will support scattered to widespread thunderstorm development during the afternoon off the higher terrain onto the adjacent plains. A quasi-stationary front, modulated by D1 convection, should be draped from the Ozark Plateau west-northwest into the central High Plains. Moderate uncertainty exists with regard to placement of the front in western KS/eastern CO by peak heating, with hot temperatures expected within the deeply mixed air mass to its south. A confined plume of enhanced low-level moisture will be present along and just north of the front emanating west-northwest from the Ozarks. This should support a corridor of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid initially steep mid-level lapse rates. Given the modest deep-layer shear profiles and pervasive convective coverage, a cluster mode should dominate as storms spread onto the High Plains. As they impinge on the greater buoyancy plume/frontal zone, a bowing structure or two may develop as a modestly organized QLCS moves east-northeast into western parts of KS/NE. Scattered severe wind swaths and some hail will be possible, peaking in the late afternoon to dusk. The north and east extent of the threat should slowly wane in both intensity/coverage Friday night. ...New England to the central Appalachians... A series of shortwave impulses embedded within a broader mid/upper trough over ON/QC and the Great Lakes will shift east across the Northeast States through Friday Night. One of these impulses should amplify somewhat as it tracks from the southern Great Plains into NY/PA. A surface cold front should extend from New England southwestward into the OH Valley on Friday afternoon, with a lee trough east of the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively steeper with northern extent into New England and weaker with southern extent into the Mid-Atlantic States and the central Appalachians. However, deeper boundary-layer warming/mixing is anticipated with southern extent. A broad plume of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg is anticipated. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon. While the bulk of strong mid to upper-level southwesterly flow should lag behind the boundary and largely parallel it as well, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells capable of isolated severe hail and damaging winds across New England. With southern extent, strong gusts within multicell clusters should yield sporadic wind damage. The level 2-SLGT risk corridor in the Northeast represents the relatively more favorable potential for cells/clusters to produce scattered damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through the evening on Friday along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary categorical change this cycle is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southward into the more deeply mixed air with thunderstorms expected to develop off the Raton Mesa/Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This includes expansion of the significant severe wind highlight for gusts to around 80 mph. A southern-stream shortwave trough currently off the northern Baja CA coast will reach the Four Corners area by Friday afternoon and progress towards the central High Plains through early Saturday. This feature will likely dampen during the D2 period. The bulk of mid to upper-flow enhancement will be confined along the southern arc of the trough, near/ahead of substantial warming within the southwest quadrant of the trough. As such, the overall kinematic profile will be relatively modest by typical central High Plains standards. But the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching trough will support scattered to widespread thunderstorm development during the afternoon off the higher terrain onto the adjacent plains. A quasi-stationary front, modulated by D1 convection, should be draped from the Ozark Plateau west-northwest into the central High Plains. Moderate uncertainty exists with regard to placement of the front in western KS/eastern CO by peak heating, with hot temperatures expected within the deeply mixed air mass to its south. A confined plume of enhanced low-level moisture will be present along and just north of the front emanating west-northwest from the Ozarks. This should support a corridor of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid initially steep mid-level lapse rates. Given the modest deep-layer shear profiles and pervasive convective coverage, a cluster mode should dominate as storms spread onto the High Plains. As they impinge on the greater buoyancy plume/frontal zone, a bowing structure or two may develop as a modestly organized QLCS moves east-northeast into western parts of KS/NE. Scattered severe wind swaths and some hail will be possible, peaking in the late afternoon to dusk. The north and east extent of the threat should slowly wane in both intensity/coverage Friday night. ...New England to the central Appalachians... A series of shortwave impulses embedded within a broader mid/upper trough over ON/QC and the Great Lakes will shift east across the Northeast States through Friday Night. One of these impulses should amplify somewhat as it tracks from the southern Great Plains into NY/PA. A surface cold front should extend from New England southwestward into the OH Valley on Friday afternoon, with a lee trough east of the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively steeper with northern extent into New England and weaker with southern extent into the Mid-Atlantic States and the central Appalachians. However, deeper boundary-layer warming/mixing is anticipated with southern extent. A broad plume of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg is anticipated. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon. While the bulk of strong mid to upper-level southwesterly flow should lag behind the boundary and largely parallel it as well, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells capable of isolated severe hail and damaging winds across New England. With southern extent, strong gusts within multicell clusters should yield sporadic wind damage. The level 2-SLGT risk corridor in the Northeast represents the relatively more favorable potential for cells/clusters to produce scattered damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through the evening on Friday along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary categorical change this cycle is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southward into the more deeply mixed air with thunderstorms expected to develop off the Raton Mesa/Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This includes expansion of the significant severe wind highlight for gusts to around 80 mph. A southern-stream shortwave trough currently off the northern Baja CA coast will reach the Four Corners area by Friday afternoon and progress towards the central High Plains through early Saturday. This feature will likely dampen during the D2 period. The bulk of mid to upper-flow enhancement will be confined along the southern arc of the trough, near/ahead of substantial warming within the southwest quadrant of the trough. As such, the overall kinematic profile will be relatively modest by typical central High Plains standards. But the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching trough will support scattered to widespread thunderstorm development during the afternoon off the higher terrain onto the adjacent plains. A quasi-stationary front, modulated by D1 convection, should be draped from the Ozark Plateau west-northwest into the central High Plains. Moderate uncertainty exists with regard to placement of the front in western KS/eastern CO by peak heating, with hot temperatures expected within the deeply mixed air mass to its south. A confined plume of enhanced low-level moisture will be present along and just north of the front emanating west-northwest from the Ozarks. This should support a corridor of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid initially steep mid-level lapse rates. Given the modest deep-layer shear profiles and pervasive convective coverage, a cluster mode should dominate as storms spread onto the High Plains. As they impinge on the greater buoyancy plume/frontal zone, a bowing structure or two may develop as a modestly organized QLCS moves east-northeast into western parts of KS/NE. Scattered severe wind swaths and some hail will be possible, peaking in the late afternoon to dusk. The north and east extent of the threat should slowly wane in both intensity/coverage Friday night. ...New England to the central Appalachians... A series of shortwave impulses embedded within a broader mid/upper trough over ON/QC and the Great Lakes will shift east across the Northeast States through Friday Night. One of these impulses should amplify somewhat as it tracks from the southern Great Plains into NY/PA. A surface cold front should extend from New England southwestward into the OH Valley on Friday afternoon, with a lee trough east of the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively steeper with northern extent into New England and weaker with southern extent into the Mid-Atlantic States and the central Appalachians. However, deeper boundary-layer warming/mixing is anticipated with southern extent. A broad plume of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg is anticipated. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon. While the bulk of strong mid to upper-level southwesterly flow should lag behind the boundary and largely parallel it as well, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells capable of isolated severe hail and damaging winds across New England. With southern extent, strong gusts within multicell clusters should yield sporadic wind damage. The level 2-SLGT risk corridor in the Northeast represents the relatively more favorable potential for cells/clusters to produce scattered damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through the evening on Friday along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary categorical change this cycle is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southward into the more deeply mixed air with thunderstorms expected to develop off the Raton Mesa/Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This includes expansion of the significant severe wind highlight for gusts to around 80 mph. A southern-stream shortwave trough currently off the northern Baja CA coast will reach the Four Corners area by Friday afternoon and progress towards the central High Plains through early Saturday. This feature will likely dampen during the D2 period. The bulk of mid to upper-flow enhancement will be confined along the southern arc of the trough, near/ahead of substantial warming within the southwest quadrant of the trough. As such, the overall kinematic profile will be relatively modest by typical central High Plains standards. But the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching trough will support scattered to widespread thunderstorm development during the afternoon off the higher terrain onto the adjacent plains. A quasi-stationary front, modulated by D1 convection, should be draped from the Ozark Plateau west-northwest into the central High Plains. Moderate uncertainty exists with regard to placement of the front in western KS/eastern CO by peak heating, with hot temperatures expected within the deeply mixed air mass to its south. A confined plume of enhanced low-level moisture will be present along and just north of the front emanating west-northwest from the Ozarks. This should support a corridor of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid initially steep mid-level lapse rates. Given the modest deep-layer shear profiles and pervasive convective coverage, a cluster mode should dominate as storms spread onto the High Plains. As they impinge on the greater buoyancy plume/frontal zone, a bowing structure or two may develop as a modestly organized QLCS moves east-northeast into western parts of KS/NE. Scattered severe wind swaths and some hail will be possible, peaking in the late afternoon to dusk. The north and east extent of the threat should slowly wane in both intensity/coverage Friday night. ...New England to the central Appalachians... A series of shortwave impulses embedded within a broader mid/upper trough over ON/QC and the Great Lakes will shift east across the Northeast States through Friday Night. One of these impulses should amplify somewhat as it tracks from the southern Great Plains into NY/PA. A surface cold front should extend from New England southwestward into the OH Valley on Friday afternoon, with a lee trough east of the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively steeper with northern extent into New England and weaker with southern extent into the Mid-Atlantic States and the central Appalachians. However, deeper boundary-layer warming/mixing is anticipated with southern extent. A broad plume of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg is anticipated. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon. While the bulk of strong mid to upper-level southwesterly flow should lag behind the boundary and largely parallel it as well, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells capable of isolated severe hail and damaging winds across New England. With southern extent, strong gusts within multicell clusters should yield sporadic wind damage. The level 2-SLGT risk corridor in the Northeast represents the relatively more favorable potential for cells/clusters to produce scattered damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through the evening on Friday along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary categorical change this cycle is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southward into the more deeply mixed air with thunderstorms expected to develop off the Raton Mesa/Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This includes expansion of the significant severe wind highlight for gusts to around 80 mph. A southern-stream shortwave trough currently off the northern Baja CA coast will reach the Four Corners area by Friday afternoon and progress towards the central High Plains through early Saturday. This feature will likely dampen during the D2 period. The bulk of mid to upper-flow enhancement will be confined along the southern arc of the trough, near/ahead of substantial warming within the southwest quadrant of the trough. As such, the overall kinematic profile will be relatively modest by typical central High Plains standards. But the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching trough will support scattered to widespread thunderstorm development during the afternoon off the higher terrain onto the adjacent plains. A quasi-stationary front, modulated by D1 convection, should be draped from the Ozark Plateau west-northwest into the central High Plains. Moderate uncertainty exists with regard to placement of the front in western KS/eastern CO by peak heating, with hot temperatures expected within the deeply mixed air mass to its south. A confined plume of enhanced low-level moisture will be present along and just north of the front emanating west-northwest from the Ozarks. This should support a corridor of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid initially steep mid-level lapse rates. Given the modest deep-layer shear profiles and pervasive convective coverage, a cluster mode should dominate as storms spread onto the High Plains. As they impinge on the greater buoyancy plume/frontal zone, a bowing structure or two may develop as a modestly organized QLCS moves east-northeast into western parts of KS/NE. Scattered severe wind swaths and some hail will be possible, peaking in the late afternoon to dusk. The north and east extent of the threat should slowly wane in both intensity/coverage Friday night. ...New England to the central Appalachians... A series of shortwave impulses embedded within a broader mid/upper trough over ON/QC and the Great Lakes will shift east across the Northeast States through Friday Night. One of these impulses should amplify somewhat as it tracks from the southern Great Plains into NY/PA. A surface cold front should extend from New England southwestward into the OH Valley on Friday afternoon, with a lee trough east of the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively steeper with northern extent into New England and weaker with southern extent into the Mid-Atlantic States and the central Appalachians. However, deeper boundary-layer warming/mixing is anticipated with southern extent. A broad plume of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg is anticipated. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon. While the bulk of strong mid to upper-level southwesterly flow should lag behind the boundary and largely parallel it as well, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells capable of isolated severe hail and damaging winds across New England. With southern extent, strong gusts within multicell clusters should yield sporadic wind damage. The level 2-SLGT risk corridor in the Northeast represents the relatively more favorable potential for cells/clusters to produce scattered damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through the evening on Friday along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary categorical change this cycle is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southward into the more deeply mixed air with thunderstorms expected to develop off the Raton Mesa/Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This includes expansion of the significant severe wind highlight for gusts to around 80 mph. A southern-stream shortwave trough currently off the northern Baja CA coast will reach the Four Corners area by Friday afternoon and progress towards the central High Plains through early Saturday. This feature will likely dampen during the D2 period. The bulk of mid to upper-flow enhancement will be confined along the southern arc of the trough, near/ahead of substantial warming within the southwest quadrant of the trough. As such, the overall kinematic profile will be relatively modest by typical central High Plains standards. But the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching trough will support scattered to widespread thunderstorm development during the afternoon off the higher terrain onto the adjacent plains. A quasi-stationary front, modulated by D1 convection, should be draped from the Ozark Plateau west-northwest into the central High Plains. Moderate uncertainty exists with regard to placement of the front in western KS/eastern CO by peak heating, with hot temperatures expected within the deeply mixed air mass to its south. A confined plume of enhanced low-level moisture will be present along and just north of the front emanating west-northwest from the Ozarks. This should support a corridor of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid initially steep mid-level lapse rates. Given the modest deep-layer shear profiles and pervasive convective coverage, a cluster mode should dominate as storms spread onto the High Plains. As they impinge on the greater buoyancy plume/frontal zone, a bowing structure or two may develop as a modestly organized QLCS moves east-northeast into western parts of KS/NE. Scattered severe wind swaths and some hail will be possible, peaking in the late afternoon to dusk. The north and east extent of the threat should slowly wane in both intensity/coverage Friday night. ...New England to the central Appalachians... A series of shortwave impulses embedded within a broader mid/upper trough over ON/QC and the Great Lakes will shift east across the Northeast States through Friday Night. One of these impulses should amplify somewhat as it tracks from the southern Great Plains into NY/PA. A surface cold front should extend from New England southwestward into the OH Valley on Friday afternoon, with a lee trough east of the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively steeper with northern extent into New England and weaker with southern extent into the Mid-Atlantic States and the central Appalachians. However, deeper boundary-layer warming/mixing is anticipated with southern extent. A broad plume of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg is anticipated. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon. While the bulk of strong mid to upper-level southwesterly flow should lag behind the boundary and largely parallel it as well, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells capable of isolated severe hail and damaging winds across New England. With southern extent, strong gusts within multicell clusters should yield sporadic wind damage. The level 2-SLGT risk corridor in the Northeast represents the relatively more favorable potential for cells/clusters to produce scattered damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through the evening on Friday along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary categorical change this cycle is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southward into the more deeply mixed air with thunderstorms expected to develop off the Raton Mesa/Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This includes expansion of the significant severe wind highlight for gusts to around 80 mph. A southern-stream shortwave trough currently off the northern Baja CA coast will reach the Four Corners area by Friday afternoon and progress towards the central High Plains through early Saturday. This feature will likely dampen during the D2 period. The bulk of mid to upper-flow enhancement will be confined along the southern arc of the trough, near/ahead of substantial warming within the southwest quadrant of the trough. As such, the overall kinematic profile will be relatively modest by typical central High Plains standards. But the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching trough will support scattered to widespread thunderstorm development during the afternoon off the higher terrain onto the adjacent plains. A quasi-stationary front, modulated by D1 convection, should be draped from the Ozark Plateau west-northwest into the central High Plains. Moderate uncertainty exists with regard to placement of the front in western KS/eastern CO by peak heating, with hot temperatures expected within the deeply mixed air mass to its south. A confined plume of enhanced low-level moisture will be present along and just north of the front emanating west-northwest from the Ozarks. This should support a corridor of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid initially steep mid-level lapse rates. Given the modest deep-layer shear profiles and pervasive convective coverage, a cluster mode should dominate as storms spread onto the High Plains. As they impinge on the greater buoyancy plume/frontal zone, a bowing structure or two may develop as a modestly organized QLCS moves east-northeast into western parts of KS/NE. Scattered severe wind swaths and some hail will be possible, peaking in the late afternoon to dusk. The north and east extent of the threat should slowly wane in both intensity/coverage Friday night. ...New England to the central Appalachians... A series of shortwave impulses embedded within a broader mid/upper trough over ON/QC and the Great Lakes will shift east across the Northeast States through Friday Night. One of these impulses should amplify somewhat as it tracks from the southern Great Plains into NY/PA. A surface cold front should extend from New England southwestward into the OH Valley on Friday afternoon, with a lee trough east of the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively steeper with northern extent into New England and weaker with southern extent into the Mid-Atlantic States and the central Appalachians. However, deeper boundary-layer warming/mixing is anticipated with southern extent. A broad plume of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg is anticipated. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon. While the bulk of strong mid to upper-level southwesterly flow should lag behind the boundary and largely parallel it as well, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells capable of isolated severe hail and damaging winds across New England. With southern extent, strong gusts within multicell clusters should yield sporadic wind damage. The level 2-SLGT risk corridor in the Northeast represents the relatively more favorable potential for cells/clusters to produce scattered damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid-afternoon through the evening on Friday along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Primary categorical change this cycle is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southward into the more deeply mixed air with thunderstorms expected to develop off the Raton Mesa/Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This includes expansion of the significant severe wind highlight for gusts to around 80 mph. A southern-stream shortwave trough currently off the northern Baja CA coast will reach the Four Corners area by Friday afternoon and progress towards the central High Plains through early Saturday. This feature will likely dampen during the D2 period. The bulk of mid to upper-flow enhancement will be confined along the southern arc of the trough, near/ahead of substantial warming within the southwest quadrant of the trough. As such, the overall kinematic profile will be relatively modest by typical central High Plains standards. But the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching trough will support scattered to widespread thunderstorm development during the afternoon off the higher terrain onto the adjacent plains. A quasi-stationary front, modulated by D1 convection, should be draped from the Ozark Plateau west-northwest into the central High Plains. Moderate uncertainty exists with regard to placement of the front in western KS/eastern CO by peak heating, with hot temperatures expected within the deeply mixed air mass to its south. A confined plume of enhanced low-level moisture will be present along and just north of the front emanating west-northwest from the Ozarks. This should support a corridor of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid initially steep mid-level lapse rates. Given the modest deep-layer shear profiles and pervasive convective coverage, a cluster mode should dominate as storms spread onto the High Plains. As they impinge on the greater buoyancy plume/frontal zone, a bowing structure or two may develop as a modestly organized QLCS moves east-northeast into western parts of KS/NE. Scattered severe wind swaths and some hail will be possible, peaking in the late afternoon to dusk. The north and east extent of the threat should slowly wane in both intensity/coverage Friday night. ...New England to the central Appalachians... A series of shortwave impulses embedded within a broader mid/upper trough over ON/QC and the Great Lakes will shift east across the Northeast States through Friday Night. One of these impulses should amplify somewhat as it tracks from the southern Great Plains into NY/PA. A surface cold front should extend from New England southwestward into the OH Valley on Friday afternoon, with a lee trough east of the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively steeper with northern extent into New England and weaker with southern extent into the Mid-Atlantic States and the central Appalachians. However, deeper boundary-layer warming/mixing is anticipated with southern extent. A broad plume of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg is anticipated. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon. While the bulk of strong mid to upper-level southwesterly flow should lag behind the boundary and largely parallel it as well, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized cells capable of isolated severe hail and damaging winds across New England. With southern extent, strong gusts within multicell clusters should yield sporadic wind damage. The level 2-SLGT risk corridor in the Northeast represents the relatively more favorable potential for cells/clusters to produce scattered damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The main change to the updated Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook was to add isolated dry thunderstorm highlights to portions of central and northern AZ. Fuels across this region are becoming critically receptive to wildfire spread, with ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile over several locations. Thunderstorms are expected to be brief and sparse through much of the afternoon, with a slight increase in coverage possible tonight. While thunderstorm coverage may not reach 10 percent over any short interval of time, the longer-term summation of strikes (wet or dry) over fuels primed for ignitions suggests that isolated dry thunderstorm highlights are warranted. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with occasionally Elevated dry and breezy conditions still expected over portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong southerly flow aloft overspreads western AZ into southern NV and UT. This will promote a tightening surface pressure gradient and 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds across these areas. These winds, coupled with a deep/dry boundary layer (single-digit RH) and receptive fuels, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of AZ into UT -- aided by ascent preceding the aforementioned midlevel trough. If afternoon thunderstorms can develop, these storms would be high-based in an environment characterized by a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile -- and isolated lightning-induced ignitions would be possible. However, confidence in afternoon storm development is low owing to very marginal instability, precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Confidence in thunderstorm development is higher during the overnight period, when a mix of wet/dry storms are expected. However, increasing boundary-layer RH and midlevel moisture may temper the overall threat of ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The main change to the updated Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook was to add isolated dry thunderstorm highlights to portions of central and northern AZ. Fuels across this region are becoming critically receptive to wildfire spread, with ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile over several locations. Thunderstorms are expected to be brief and sparse through much of the afternoon, with a slight increase in coverage possible tonight. While thunderstorm coverage may not reach 10 percent over any short interval of time, the longer-term summation of strikes (wet or dry) over fuels primed for ignitions suggests that isolated dry thunderstorm highlights are warranted. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with occasionally Elevated dry and breezy conditions still expected over portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong southerly flow aloft overspreads western AZ into southern NV and UT. This will promote a tightening surface pressure gradient and 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds across these areas. These winds, coupled with a deep/dry boundary layer (single-digit RH) and receptive fuels, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of AZ into UT -- aided by ascent preceding the aforementioned midlevel trough. If afternoon thunderstorms can develop, these storms would be high-based in an environment characterized by a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile -- and isolated lightning-induced ignitions would be possible. However, confidence in afternoon storm development is low owing to very marginal instability, precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Confidence in thunderstorm development is higher during the overnight period, when a mix of wet/dry storms are expected. However, increasing boundary-layer RH and midlevel moisture may temper the overall threat of ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more