Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible over the central Plains and Upper Midwest Tuesday, but overall severe potential is low. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to intensify as it shifts eastward, impinging on the western flank of a shortwave ridge centered over the Rockies. To the east, persistent troughing should remain in place, with surface high pressure dominating the eastern half of the country. As southwesterly flow aloft increases over the western US and central Rockies, a subtle shortwave trough/vort max will pass over the crest of the ridge and into the Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. This should aid in strengthening a lee trough over the High Plains, potentially serving as a focus for isolated thunderstorm development. ...Central High Plains.. Continued low-level southerly flow will advect richer surface moisture northwestward across the High Plains beginning early Tuesday. As dewpoints increase into the low to mid 60s F, strong heating should support robust destabilization along and east of the lee trough. 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE will develop beneath substantial capping as mid-level heights will likely remain neutral through much of the day. Eventually, weak ascent from the embedded shortwave trough and low-level upslope flow may allow for isolated storm development along the lee trough over the central High Plains. Northwesterly flow aloft will be marginally supportive of organized storms, including the potential for supercells. However, given the capping and weak ascent, considerable uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage and severity. While sporadic hail and severe gusts cannot be ruled out, confidence remains too low for severe probabilities at this time. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... A diffuse front will stall across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest early Tuesday beneath the western extension of the broad eastern US trough. Weak low-level warm air advection may support scattered showers and thunderstorms through much of Tuesday near the front. These parcels are likely to be elevated along and north of the front with modest buoyancy and vertical shear expected to limit overall severe potential. Still, a few stronger storms with sporadic hail potential may evolve, though confidence in a sustained severe risk is low. ..Lyons.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the western U.S. as upper ridging builds into the Plains states tomorrow (Monday). Another day of locally dry and breezy conditions is expected across the Great Basin, though widespread and longer-lasting winds/RH reaching Elevated criteria appears less likely. Thunderstorms, driven by strong forcing for ascent with this upper trough, will develop over the windward side of the Cascades and progress eastward through the day. However, fuels are most receptive toward the northern Rockies. Storms should approach the northern Rockies after dark, though it is unclear how dry they will be, and how much overlap will occur with the most receptive fuels, precluding isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies today. The approach of this upper trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across portions of the western and northern Great Basin, though these conditions should largely remain below Elevated thresholds. Upper support with this trough will also lift a buoyant airmass across eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, where both a dry boundary layer (extending to over 700 mb) and dry fuels will overlap. Thunderstorms that develop within this regime will be both wet and dry and nature. However, the degree of fuel receptiveness over eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies suggests that lightning-induced ignitions may be efficient, warranting the continuance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies today. The approach of this upper trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across portions of the western and northern Great Basin, though these conditions should largely remain below Elevated thresholds. Upper support with this trough will also lift a buoyant airmass across eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, where both a dry boundary layer (extending to over 700 mb) and dry fuels will overlap. Thunderstorms that develop within this regime will be both wet and dry and nature. However, the degree of fuel receptiveness over eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies suggests that lightning-induced ignitions may be efficient, warranting the continuance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies today. The approach of this upper trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across portions of the western and northern Great Basin, though these conditions should largely remain below Elevated thresholds. Upper support with this trough will also lift a buoyant airmass across eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, where both a dry boundary layer (extending to over 700 mb) and dry fuels will overlap. Thunderstorms that develop within this regime will be both wet and dry and nature. However, the degree of fuel receptiveness over eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies suggests that lightning-induced ignitions may be efficient, warranting the continuance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies today. The approach of this upper trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across portions of the western and northern Great Basin, though these conditions should largely remain below Elevated thresholds. Upper support with this trough will also lift a buoyant airmass across eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, where both a dry boundary layer (extending to over 700 mb) and dry fuels will overlap. Thunderstorms that develop within this regime will be both wet and dry and nature. However, the degree of fuel receptiveness over eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies suggests that lightning-induced ignitions may be efficient, warranting the continuance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies today. The approach of this upper trough will encourage locally dry and breezy conditions across portions of the western and northern Great Basin, though these conditions should largely remain below Elevated thresholds. Upper support with this trough will also lift a buoyant airmass across eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, where both a dry boundary layer (extending to over 700 mb) and dry fuels will overlap. Thunderstorms that develop within this regime will be both wet and dry and nature. However, the degree of fuel receptiveness over eastern parts of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies suggests that lightning-induced ignitions may be efficient, warranting the continuance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains Monday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. An embedded shortwave trough will emanate from the central Rockies into the Plains. At the surface, a weak lee low should form over the Dakotas with a trailing surface trough from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains. Southerly flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor over portions of the High Plains northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. ...Central and Southern Plains... A moderately strong remnant low-level jet will likely be ongoing at the start of the period aiding in modest return flow over the High Plains. One or more clusters of storms may also be ongoing near the apex of the LLJ across KS and NE. A narrow plume of 60s F surface dewpoints will likely extend northward along the lee trough to the low into the Dakotas. Heating of the moistening air mass and ascent from the impinging shortwave moving out of the Rockies will support diurnal destabilization along and east of the trailing lee trough, potentially allowing for re-intensification of the early morning storms. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is also possible by late afternoon along the length of the lee trough. However, strong capping and early-day clouds/remnant convection could limit storm coverage/development. Should storms form/redevelop, moderate buoyancy and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support some storm organization. Veering wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes would support a supercell or organized multicell risk. Steepening mid-level lapse rates, and supportive shear could favor some hail, while drier low-levels suggest damaging gusts are possible. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the upper low moving onshore over the Northwest, scattered thunderstorms appear likely Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm but modestly moist air mass. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy is expected to be fairly weak as well. Still, steep lapse rates and the stronger mid-level flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms across central OR into southern WA. ..Lyons.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains Monday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. An embedded shortwave trough will emanate from the central Rockies into the Plains. At the surface, a weak lee low should form over the Dakotas with a trailing surface trough from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains. Southerly flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor over portions of the High Plains northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. ...Central and Southern Plains... A moderately strong remnant low-level jet will likely be ongoing at the start of the period aiding in modest return flow over the High Plains. One or more clusters of storms may also be ongoing near the apex of the LLJ across KS and NE. A narrow plume of 60s F surface dewpoints will likely extend northward along the lee trough to the low into the Dakotas. Heating of the moistening air mass and ascent from the impinging shortwave moving out of the Rockies will support diurnal destabilization along and east of the trailing lee trough, potentially allowing for re-intensification of the early morning storms. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is also possible by late afternoon along the length of the lee trough. However, strong capping and early-day clouds/remnant convection could limit storm coverage/development. Should storms form/redevelop, moderate buoyancy and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support some storm organization. Veering wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes would support a supercell or organized multicell risk. Steepening mid-level lapse rates, and supportive shear could favor some hail, while drier low-levels suggest damaging gusts are possible. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the upper low moving onshore over the Northwest, scattered thunderstorms appear likely Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm but modestly moist air mass. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy is expected to be fairly weak as well. Still, steep lapse rates and the stronger mid-level flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms across central OR into southern WA. ..Lyons.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains Monday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. An embedded shortwave trough will emanate from the central Rockies into the Plains. At the surface, a weak lee low should form over the Dakotas with a trailing surface trough from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains. Southerly flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor over portions of the High Plains northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. ...Central and Southern Plains... A moderately strong remnant low-level jet will likely be ongoing at the start of the period aiding in modest return flow over the High Plains. One or more clusters of storms may also be ongoing near the apex of the LLJ across KS and NE. A narrow plume of 60s F surface dewpoints will likely extend northward along the lee trough to the low into the Dakotas. Heating of the moistening air mass and ascent from the impinging shortwave moving out of the Rockies will support diurnal destabilization along and east of the trailing lee trough, potentially allowing for re-intensification of the early morning storms. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is also possible by late afternoon along the length of the lee trough. However, strong capping and early-day clouds/remnant convection could limit storm coverage/development. Should storms form/redevelop, moderate buoyancy and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support some storm organization. Veering wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes would support a supercell or organized multicell risk. Steepening mid-level lapse rates, and supportive shear could favor some hail, while drier low-levels suggest damaging gusts are possible. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the upper low moving onshore over the Northwest, scattered thunderstorms appear likely Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm but modestly moist air mass. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy is expected to be fairly weak as well. Still, steep lapse rates and the stronger mid-level flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms across central OR into southern WA. ..Lyons.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains Monday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. An embedded shortwave trough will emanate from the central Rockies into the Plains. At the surface, a weak lee low should form over the Dakotas with a trailing surface trough from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains. Southerly flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor over portions of the High Plains northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. ...Central and Southern Plains... A moderately strong remnant low-level jet will likely be ongoing at the start of the period aiding in modest return flow over the High Plains. One or more clusters of storms may also be ongoing near the apex of the LLJ across KS and NE. A narrow plume of 60s F surface dewpoints will likely extend northward along the lee trough to the low into the Dakotas. Heating of the moistening air mass and ascent from the impinging shortwave moving out of the Rockies will support diurnal destabilization along and east of the trailing lee trough, potentially allowing for re-intensification of the early morning storms. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is also possible by late afternoon along the length of the lee trough. However, strong capping and early-day clouds/remnant convection could limit storm coverage/development. Should storms form/redevelop, moderate buoyancy and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support some storm organization. Veering wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes would support a supercell or organized multicell risk. Steepening mid-level lapse rates, and supportive shear could favor some hail, while drier low-levels suggest damaging gusts are possible. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the upper low moving onshore over the Northwest, scattered thunderstorms appear likely Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm but modestly moist air mass. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy is expected to be fairly weak as well. Still, steep lapse rates and the stronger mid-level flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms across central OR into southern WA. ..Lyons.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains Monday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. An embedded shortwave trough will emanate from the central Rockies into the Plains. At the surface, a weak lee low should form over the Dakotas with a trailing surface trough from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains. Southerly flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor over portions of the High Plains northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN. ...Central and Southern Plains... A moderately strong remnant low-level jet will likely be ongoing at the start of the period aiding in modest return flow over the High Plains. One or more clusters of storms may also be ongoing near the apex of the LLJ across KS and NE. A narrow plume of 60s F surface dewpoints will likely extend northward along the lee trough to the low into the Dakotas. Heating of the moistening air mass and ascent from the impinging shortwave moving out of the Rockies will support diurnal destabilization along and east of the trailing lee trough, potentially allowing for re-intensification of the early morning storms. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is also possible by late afternoon along the length of the lee trough. However, strong capping and early-day clouds/remnant convection could limit storm coverage/development. Should storms form/redevelop, moderate buoyancy and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support some storm organization. Veering wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes would support a supercell or organized multicell risk. Steepening mid-level lapse rates, and supportive shear could favor some hail, while drier low-levels suggest damaging gusts are possible. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the upper low moving onshore over the Northwest, scattered thunderstorms appear likely Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm but modestly moist air mass. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy is expected to be fairly weak as well. Still, steep lapse rates and the stronger mid-level flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms across central OR into southern WA. ..Lyons.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some wind and hail risk is expected with thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A few notable disturbances will top the western U.S. ridge and dig southeast toward the central High Plains later today. Modest midlevel flow will be noted across this region, and a LLJ is expected to respond and increase from the TX Panhandle across western KS during the evening. Latest model guidance depicts strong boundary-layer heating across eastern NM/CO which should allow surface temperatures to warm into the lower 80s. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 22z and steep low-level lapse rates will prove beneficial for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear is expected to be on the order of 35kt, so a few organized updrafts may take on supercell characteristics. If so, isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. Increasing LLJ after sunset favors this activity spreading southeast toward western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some wind and hail risk is expected with thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A few notable disturbances will top the western U.S. ridge and dig southeast toward the central High Plains later today. Modest midlevel flow will be noted across this region, and a LLJ is expected to respond and increase from the TX Panhandle across western KS during the evening. Latest model guidance depicts strong boundary-layer heating across eastern NM/CO which should allow surface temperatures to warm into the lower 80s. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 22z and steep low-level lapse rates will prove beneficial for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear is expected to be on the order of 35kt, so a few organized updrafts may take on supercell characteristics. If so, isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. Increasing LLJ after sunset favors this activity spreading southeast toward western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some wind and hail risk is expected with thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern High Plains... A few notable disturbances will top the western U.S. ridge and dig southeast toward the central High Plains later today. Modest midlevel flow will be noted across this region, and a LLJ is expected to respond and increase from the TX Panhandle across western KS during the evening. Latest model guidance depicts strong boundary-layer heating across eastern NM/CO which should allow surface temperatures to warm into the lower 80s. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 22z and steep low-level lapse rates will prove beneficial for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear is expected to be on the order of 35kt, so a few organized updrafts may take on supercell characteristics. If so, isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. Increasing LLJ after sunset favors this activity spreading southeast toward western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/07/2025 Read more