Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE BMI TO 35 W VPZ TO 20 SE RAC. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC053-075-091-162240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORD IROQUOIS KANKAKEE INC007-073-089-111-127-162240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER LMZ743-744-745-777-779-162240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE JVL TO 25 SW OSH TO 35 E AUW. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC009-015-027-039-055-059-061-071-079-087-089-101-117-127-131- 133-135-139-162240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALUMET DODGE FOND DU LAC JEFFERSON KENOSHA KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MILWAUKEE OUTAGAMIE OZAUKEE RACINE SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA WAUPACA WINNEBAGO LMZ542-543-643-644-645-646-162240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jul 16 21:16:09 UTC 2025.

MD 1687 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518... FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1687 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Northern/Central IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518... Valid 161908Z - 162115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue for the next several hours across northern and central IL. DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed along a wind shift moving eastward across northern/central IL. Temperatures along and ahead of this wind shift have risen into the upper 80s/low 90s amid dewpoints in the mid 70s. Despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, these warm and moist surface conditions support MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg. The strongest storms are currently ongoing across northern IL, where stronger mid-level flow exists. These storms will likely persist as they move eastward over the next several hours. Hail and damaging gusts are possible with any of the more robust updrafts. Farther south, updraft strength and duration may be limited by the lack of stronger shear. Even so, given ample low-level moisture and strong to very strong buoyancy in place, updrafts could still be strong enough to produce water-loaded strong downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 42118909 42428853 42308782 41638767 40198852 39168996 39539062 40658968 42118909 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1689 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1689 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Wyoming...eastern Colorado and far western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161936Z - 162100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Initial thunderstorms moving off the higher terrain in northern CO and southern WY should gradually organize into a mix of supercells and clusters this afternoon. Hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible. DISCUSSION...Initial convective development across WY and CO has shown a steady increase in vertical development/lightning over the last hour. These initial storms should continue to intensify early this afternoon within a broad, but weak upslope flow regime. A stalled front along the I-25 corridor will likely serve as a focus for more robust thunderstorms over the next couple of hours as the environment continues to destabilize. As the initial convection matures, 40-50 kt of deep-layer flow will favor storm organization into supercells or clusters. Steep mid-level lapse rates (>8 C/km) and the potential for supercells suggest hail is likely with the stronger storms. A few hailstones may approach 2 inches in diameter. A few damaging gusts are also possible. While low-level shear is not overly strong, enhanced low-level vertical vorticity from terrain effects and near the stalled front could support a brief tornado. Severe potential is expected to steadily increase this afternoon and into this evening hours. With time, storms should begin to grow upscale with a greater risk for severe winds toward the eastern Plains. However, lingering inhibition and cooler temperatures to the east of the stalled front may hamper the severe threat to some degree. Regardless, a WW is likely needed along the Front Range and into parts of WY and far western NE in the coming hours. ..Lyons/Smith.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40360318 39480300 38810295 37880271 37280204 37050216 37030343 37260483 38630554 39260576 40760637 41930631 42560543 42350405 41500343 40360318 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1688 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 517... FOR SOUTHERN WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Southern WI Concerning...Tornado Watch 517... Valid 161926Z - 162100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and damaging downbursts will continue for at least the next several hours across southern WI. DISCUSSION...Two lines of thunderstorms are currently progressing northeastward across southern WI. The easternmost line is associated with earlier warm-air-advection-initiated storms while the westernmost line is along the wind shift close to the surface low. The airmass across the entire region is characterized by ample low-level moisture, robust low-level instability (i.e. 0-3km MLCAPE over 100 J/kg), and strong surface vorticity. These conditions led to the development of several tornadic supercells within the leading line. This trend will likely continue within both of these convective lines for at least the next few hours. As such, the tornado threat continues. Damaging gusts from strong downdrafts and isolated hail are possible as well. ..Mosier.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 43989022 44348966 44238876 43648787 42678793 42558880 42618949 42929008 43489036 43989022 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0519 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0519 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0519 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0519 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 519 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 162040Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 519 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing near Interstate 25 will continue to intensify this afternoon and move eastward across the Watch. Appreciably strong deep-layer shear will support a mix of supercells and severe multicells across mainly the northern half of the Watch. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms, but a tornado is possible. Severe thunderstorms posing primarily a severe-wind risk are possible later this evening as storms congeal into a likely cluster across southeast Colorado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Cheyenne WY to 25 miles west southwest of Springfield CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517...WW 518... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1686 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST UTAH...NORTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1686 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...parts of northeast Utah...northwest Colorado and southwest Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161841Z - 162045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage/intensity early this afternoon. Damaging gust are possible, along with small hail. DISCUSSION...As of 1830 UTC, visible and radar imagery showed initial thunderstorm development was underway across the higher terrain of the Western Slope and southern WY. Focused largely across the Uintas and northern CO ranges, diurnal heating and local terrain circulations should continue to support convective development through the afternoon. Broad-scale ascent should also increase over the next few hours as shortwave troughing passes overhead. As thunderstorms expand toward scattered coverage, a few of the storms should become more organized and move off the higher terrain. 40-50 kt of deep-layer flow will favor a mix of clusters and supercells. Very steep low-level lapse rates will support damaging outflow gusts with the more intense storms. However some hail will also be possible, especially with any weakly rotating cells. While it may take some time for the stronger cells to organize, outflow should gradually strengthen and allow for storms to move off the higher terrain this afternoon. Overall buoyancy is modest but sufficient to support stronger storm clusters and some severe risk. Given the limited buoyancy a WW is not expected, though severe trends will continue to be monitored. ..Lyons/Smith.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC... LAT...LON 42180884 41780671 40340601 39940695 39250961 39811094 40531137 41441026 42180884 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MMO TO 25 SSW RAC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1687 ..MOSIER..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-043-053-063-075-091-093-097-105-197-162140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK DUPAGE FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LIVINGSTON WILL INC007-073-089-111-127-162140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER LMZ740-741-742-743-744-745-777-779-162140- CW Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW JVL TO 20 ENE VOK TO 35 W CWA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688 ..MOSIER..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-009-015-021-025-027-039-047-055-059-061-071-077-079-087- 089-097-101-105-117-127-131-133-135-137-139-141-162140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALUMET COLUMBIA DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GREEN LAKE JEFFERSON KENOSHA KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MARQUETTE MILWAUKEE OUTAGAMIE OZAUKEE PORTAGE RACINE ROCK SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO WOOD LMZ542-543-643-644-645-646-162140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1685 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OH INTO FAR NORTHERN KY
Mesoscale Discussion 1685 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Central/Southern OH into Far Northern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161740Z - 161945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected across central/southern Ohio and far northern Kentucky this afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts are possible with a few of these thunderstorm clusters. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across central/southern OH and far northern KY over the next few hours as the well-defined MCV currently over far southeast IN progresses northeastward into the moist and destabilizing downstream airmass. Deep-layer flow across the region is modest, resulting in a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, some enhanced low/mid-level southwesterlies will accompany the MCV, which could contribute to a few loosely organized, northeastward-progressing clusters capable of isolated damaging gusts. Limited severe coverage is expected to preclude the need for watch. ..Mosier/Smith.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX... LAT...LON 40048474 40848401 41008225 40288168 38668224 38128386 38938467 40048474 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into parts of Virginia into North Carolina. ...Southern SD into NE...western IA... A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z. In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low probabilities for wind have been introduced. ...VA into NC... Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities this far out. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2025 Read more