Severe Storms

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD TO 25 WNW ALI TO 55 ESE CRP. ..LEITMAN..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-061-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-427-479-489-505-201040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS CAMERON DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES STARR WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-250-201040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD TO 25 WNW ALI TO 55 ESE CRP. ..LEITMAN..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-061-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-427-479-489-505-201040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS CAMERON DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES STARR WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-250-201040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD TO 25 WNW ALI TO 55 ESE CRP. ..LEITMAN..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-061-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-427-479-489-505-201040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS CAMERON DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES STARR WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-250-201040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more

WW 437 TORNADO TX CW 200025Z - 201200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 437 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 725 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 725 PM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...A gradual strengthening and westward/inland spread of supercell-favorable conditions is expected through the overnight hours, north through northeast of the center of Tropical Storm Alberto. This should increase the potential for tornadoes, at first near parts of the lower/middle Texas Coast, then inland toward the Rio Grande Valley by late tonight. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles south southeast of Mcallen TX to 35 miles west northwest of Victoria TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 436... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 10035. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD TO 15 N ALI TO 50 ESE CRP. ..LEITMAN..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-061-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-427-479-489-505-200940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS CAMERON DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES STARR WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-250-200940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado potential may develop. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough potential to introduce a Slight Risk. A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms may product damaging winds. Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation, southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/20/2024 Read more