Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Northeast States/New England... The prominent upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build westward across the CONUS today, while some flattening of the ridge will occur over the Northeast and especially New England. The stronger mid-level westerlies will be located closer to the international border and across eastern Canada, with weaker winds aloft over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. A surface cold front will advance south into northern Maine, extending westward into southern lower Michigan by midday, with subsequent southeastward movement expected across the Northeast through early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for intensifying convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90 F, with a weak mid-level impulse/MCV near Lake Ontario this morning being an additional influence. While deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong in most areas, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected, contributing to upwards of 2000-3000 MLCAPE this afternoon particularly across upstate New York and interior New England/southern Maine. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms this afternoon. ...North-Central Plains... Weak mid-level height rises will occur over the central Plains through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft, and few embedded disturbances, from Utah/Wyoming toward the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis, focused across northeast Colorado later today, will contribute to a north-northwestward flux of low-level moisture across the central High Plains/eastern Wyoming and Black Hills vicinity. Initial thunderstorm development/intensification will occur over the mountains toward southeast Wyoming/Colorado Front Range by mid-afternoon, with subsequent development into the nearby High Plains this evening, in areas near/north of the surface low/triple point and east/northeastward-extending front. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Aided by an early evening strengthening of a southerly low-level jet, storms will likely consolidate and grow upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone focused across western/northern Nebraska and south-central/southern South Dakota. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS. ...Central Rockies/Four Corners Area... While not overly moist regionally, a west-northwestward flux of moisture and a moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to sustained thunderstorms, particularly from mid-afternoon through early evening. Some of these may produce severe-caliber downbursts. ...South Texas... Supercell/brief tornado related to Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to continue to diminish this morning as it moves inland and weakens over northeast Mexico. ...Central/eastern Montana... A weak mid-level disturbance, moderately strong flow aloft, and an adequately moist boundary layer may contribute to some strong/locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening, with hail/gusty winds possible. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Northeast States/New England... The prominent upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build westward across the CONUS today, while some flattening of the ridge will occur over the Northeast and especially New England. The stronger mid-level westerlies will be located closer to the international border and across eastern Canada, with weaker winds aloft over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. A surface cold front will advance south into northern Maine, extending westward into southern lower Michigan by midday, with subsequent southeastward movement expected across the Northeast through early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for intensifying convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90 F, with a weak mid-level impulse/MCV near Lake Ontario this morning being an additional influence. While deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong in most areas, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected, contributing to upwards of 2000-3000 MLCAPE this afternoon particularly across upstate New York and interior New England/southern Maine. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms this afternoon. ...North-Central Plains... Weak mid-level height rises will occur over the central Plains through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft, and few embedded disturbances, from Utah/Wyoming toward the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis, focused across northeast Colorado later today, will contribute to a north-northwestward flux of low-level moisture across the central High Plains/eastern Wyoming and Black Hills vicinity. Initial thunderstorm development/intensification will occur over the mountains toward southeast Wyoming/Colorado Front Range by mid-afternoon, with subsequent development into the nearby High Plains this evening, in areas near/north of the surface low/triple point and east/northeastward-extending front. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Aided by an early evening strengthening of a southerly low-level jet, storms will likely consolidate and grow upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone focused across western/northern Nebraska and south-central/southern South Dakota. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS. ...Central Rockies/Four Corners Area... While not overly moist regionally, a west-northwestward flux of moisture and a moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to sustained thunderstorms, particularly from mid-afternoon through early evening. Some of these may produce severe-caliber downbursts. ...South Texas... Supercell/brief tornado related to Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to continue to diminish this morning as it moves inland and weakens over northeast Mexico. ...Central/eastern Montana... A weak mid-level disturbance, moderately strong flow aloft, and an adequately moist boundary layer may contribute to some strong/locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening, with hail/gusty winds possible. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Northeast States/New England... The prominent upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build westward across the CONUS today, while some flattening of the ridge will occur over the Northeast and especially New England. The stronger mid-level westerlies will be located closer to the international border and across eastern Canada, with weaker winds aloft over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. A surface cold front will advance south into northern Maine, extending westward into southern lower Michigan by midday, with subsequent southeastward movement expected across the Northeast through early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for intensifying convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90 F, with a weak mid-level impulse/MCV near Lake Ontario this morning being an additional influence. While deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong in most areas, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected, contributing to upwards of 2000-3000 MLCAPE this afternoon particularly across upstate New York and interior New England/southern Maine. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms this afternoon. ...North-Central Plains... Weak mid-level height rises will occur over the central Plains through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft, and few embedded disturbances, from Utah/Wyoming toward the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis, focused across northeast Colorado later today, will contribute to a north-northwestward flux of low-level moisture across the central High Plains/eastern Wyoming and Black Hills vicinity. Initial thunderstorm development/intensification will occur over the mountains toward southeast Wyoming/Colorado Front Range by mid-afternoon, with subsequent development into the nearby High Plains this evening, in areas near/north of the surface low/triple point and east/northeastward-extending front. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Aided by an early evening strengthening of a southerly low-level jet, storms will likely consolidate and grow upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone focused across western/northern Nebraska and south-central/southern South Dakota. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS. ...Central Rockies/Four Corners Area... While not overly moist regionally, a west-northwestward flux of moisture and a moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to sustained thunderstorms, particularly from mid-afternoon through early evening. Some of these may produce severe-caliber downbursts. ...South Texas... Supercell/brief tornado related to Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to continue to diminish this morning as it moves inland and weakens over northeast Mexico. ...Central/eastern Montana... A weak mid-level disturbance, moderately strong flow aloft, and an adequately moist boundary layer may contribute to some strong/locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening, with hail/gusty winds possible. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Northeast States/New England... The prominent upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build westward across the CONUS today, while some flattening of the ridge will occur over the Northeast and especially New England. The stronger mid-level westerlies will be located closer to the international border and across eastern Canada, with weaker winds aloft over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. A surface cold front will advance south into northern Maine, extending westward into southern lower Michigan by midday, with subsequent southeastward movement expected across the Northeast through early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for intensifying convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90 F, with a weak mid-level impulse/MCV near Lake Ontario this morning being an additional influence. While deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong in most areas, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected, contributing to upwards of 2000-3000 MLCAPE this afternoon particularly across upstate New York and interior New England/southern Maine. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms this afternoon. ...North-Central Plains... Weak mid-level height rises will occur over the central Plains through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft, and few embedded disturbances, from Utah/Wyoming toward the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis, focused across northeast Colorado later today, will contribute to a north-northwestward flux of low-level moisture across the central High Plains/eastern Wyoming and Black Hills vicinity. Initial thunderstorm development/intensification will occur over the mountains toward southeast Wyoming/Colorado Front Range by mid-afternoon, with subsequent development into the nearby High Plains this evening, in areas near/north of the surface low/triple point and east/northeastward-extending front. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Aided by an early evening strengthening of a southerly low-level jet, storms will likely consolidate and grow upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone focused across western/northern Nebraska and south-central/southern South Dakota. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS. ...Central Rockies/Four Corners Area... While not overly moist regionally, a west-northwestward flux of moisture and a moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to sustained thunderstorms, particularly from mid-afternoon through early evening. Some of these may produce severe-caliber downbursts. ...South Texas... Supercell/brief tornado related to Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to continue to diminish this morning as it moves inland and weakens over northeast Mexico. ...Central/eastern Montana... A weak mid-level disturbance, moderately strong flow aloft, and an adequately moist boundary layer may contribute to some strong/locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening, with hail/gusty winds possible. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Northeast States/New England... The prominent upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build westward across the CONUS today, while some flattening of the ridge will occur over the Northeast and especially New England. The stronger mid-level westerlies will be located closer to the international border and across eastern Canada, with weaker winds aloft over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. A surface cold front will advance south into northern Maine, extending westward into southern lower Michigan by midday, with subsequent southeastward movement expected across the Northeast through early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for intensifying convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90 F, with a weak mid-level impulse/MCV near Lake Ontario this morning being an additional influence. While deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong in most areas, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected, contributing to upwards of 2000-3000 MLCAPE this afternoon particularly across upstate New York and interior New England/southern Maine. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms this afternoon. ...North-Central Plains... Weak mid-level height rises will occur over the central Plains through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft, and few embedded disturbances, from Utah/Wyoming toward the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis, focused across northeast Colorado later today, will contribute to a north-northwestward flux of low-level moisture across the central High Plains/eastern Wyoming and Black Hills vicinity. Initial thunderstorm development/intensification will occur over the mountains toward southeast Wyoming/Colorado Front Range by mid-afternoon, with subsequent development into the nearby High Plains this evening, in areas near/north of the surface low/triple point and east/northeastward-extending front. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Aided by an early evening strengthening of a southerly low-level jet, storms will likely consolidate and grow upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone focused across western/northern Nebraska and south-central/southern South Dakota. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS. ...Central Rockies/Four Corners Area... While not overly moist regionally, a west-northwestward flux of moisture and a moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to sustained thunderstorms, particularly from mid-afternoon through early evening. Some of these may produce severe-caliber downbursts. ...South Texas... Supercell/brief tornado related to Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to continue to diminish this morning as it moves inland and weakens over northeast Mexico. ...Central/eastern Montana... A weak mid-level disturbance, moderately strong flow aloft, and an adequately moist boundary layer may contribute to some strong/locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening, with hail/gusty winds possible. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Northeast States/New England... The prominent upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build westward across the CONUS today, while some flattening of the ridge will occur over the Northeast and especially New England. The stronger mid-level westerlies will be located closer to the international border and across eastern Canada, with weaker winds aloft over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. A surface cold front will advance south into northern Maine, extending westward into southern lower Michigan by midday, with subsequent southeastward movement expected across the Northeast through early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for intensifying convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90 F, with a weak mid-level impulse/MCV near Lake Ontario this morning being an additional influence. While deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong in most areas, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected, contributing to upwards of 2000-3000 MLCAPE this afternoon particularly across upstate New York and interior New England/southern Maine. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms this afternoon. ...North-Central Plains... Weak mid-level height rises will occur over the central Plains through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft, and few embedded disturbances, from Utah/Wyoming toward the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis, focused across northeast Colorado later today, will contribute to a north-northwestward flux of low-level moisture across the central High Plains/eastern Wyoming and Black Hills vicinity. Initial thunderstorm development/intensification will occur over the mountains toward southeast Wyoming/Colorado Front Range by mid-afternoon, with subsequent development into the nearby High Plains this evening, in areas near/north of the surface low/triple point and east/northeastward-extending front. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Aided by an early evening strengthening of a southerly low-level jet, storms will likely consolidate and grow upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone focused across western/northern Nebraska and south-central/southern South Dakota. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS. ...Central Rockies/Four Corners Area... While not overly moist regionally, a west-northwestward flux of moisture and a moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to sustained thunderstorms, particularly from mid-afternoon through early evening. Some of these may produce severe-caliber downbursts. ...South Texas... Supercell/brief tornado related to Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to continue to diminish this morning as it moves inland and weakens over northeast Mexico. ...Central/eastern Montana... A weak mid-level disturbance, moderately strong flow aloft, and an adequately moist boundary layer may contribute to some strong/locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening, with hail/gusty winds possible. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Northeast States/New England... The prominent upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build westward across the CONUS today, while some flattening of the ridge will occur over the Northeast and especially New England. The stronger mid-level westerlies will be located closer to the international border and across eastern Canada, with weaker winds aloft over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. A surface cold front will advance south into northern Maine, extending westward into southern lower Michigan by midday, with subsequent southeastward movement expected across the Northeast through early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for intensifying convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90 F, with a weak mid-level impulse/MCV near Lake Ontario this morning being an additional influence. While deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong in most areas, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected, contributing to upwards of 2000-3000 MLCAPE this afternoon particularly across upstate New York and interior New England/southern Maine. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms this afternoon. ...North-Central Plains... Weak mid-level height rises will occur over the central Plains through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft, and few embedded disturbances, from Utah/Wyoming toward the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis, focused across northeast Colorado later today, will contribute to a north-northwestward flux of low-level moisture across the central High Plains/eastern Wyoming and Black Hills vicinity. Initial thunderstorm development/intensification will occur over the mountains toward southeast Wyoming/Colorado Front Range by mid-afternoon, with subsequent development into the nearby High Plains this evening, in areas near/north of the surface low/triple point and east/northeastward-extending front. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Aided by an early evening strengthening of a southerly low-level jet, storms will likely consolidate and grow upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone focused across western/northern Nebraska and south-central/southern South Dakota. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS. ...Central Rockies/Four Corners Area... While not overly moist regionally, a west-northwestward flux of moisture and a moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to sustained thunderstorms, particularly from mid-afternoon through early evening. Some of these may produce severe-caliber downbursts. ...South Texas... Supercell/brief tornado related to Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to continue to diminish this morning as it moves inland and weakens over northeast Mexico. ...Central/eastern Montana... A weak mid-level disturbance, moderately strong flow aloft, and an adequately moist boundary layer may contribute to some strong/locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening, with hail/gusty winds possible. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/20/2024 Read more

MD 1339 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 437... FOR SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1339 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Areas affected...south Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 437... Valid 201042Z - 201215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 437 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado risk may persist another couple of hours across south Texas before waning through the morning hours. DISCUSSION...Convection has shown very minor rotation over the past several hours across south Texas. Overall intensity has remained weak, and lightning trends have decreased early this morning. Forecast guidance suggests low-level shear will weaken through early/mid-morning. Overall expectation is that a new tornado watch will not be needed, though a local extension in time may be considered if any convection shows signs of intensification over the next hour. ..Leitman.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 28080036 28379915 28129810 27589682 26719661 26019681 25829748 26219879 26459921 27149961 28080036 Read more