Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW LWD TO 15 SE OXV TO 45 NNE OXV. ..LEITMAN..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-067-149-301740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN HANCOCK PIKE IAC007-039-051-053-101-107-111-117-123-135-157-159-175-177-179- 185-301740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE LUCAS MAHASKA MONROE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO WAYNE MOC001-007-041-045-079-081-103-111-115-121-127-129-137-163-171- 173-175-197-199-205-211-301740- Read more

MD 1742 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1742 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0909 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Illinois and southern Indiana into north-central Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 567... Valid 301409Z - 301615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 567 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing a damaging wind risk will persist across southern Illinois within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 567. Areas across southern Indiana into adjacent north-central Kentucky are being monitored for possible downstream watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A small, but well organized bowing cluster of storms continues to track east/southeast across south-central Illinois this morning. This activity has produced gusts near 50 kt within the past hour. Around 30 kt effective shear magnitudes are likely sustaining organized activity as convection shifts east/southeast along an instability gradient oriented northwest to southeast across the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. A very moist downstream airmass is evident, with surface dewpoints in the 70s. With continued heating, boundary-layer inhibition is expected to quickly erode by midday. Damaging gusts may continue downstream of ongoing activity, especially if additional convection can develop on the southern flank of the ongoing cluster. Visible satellite imagery shows deepening cumulus ahead of the southern flank, so this evolution appears plausible. A downstream watch may be needed within the next hour or so if current trends persist/increase. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39868929 39908894 39748821 39118676 38488582 38088570 37778619 37818688 37818706 37898751 38188845 38518908 38968967 39358961 39868929 Read more

WW 0569 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0569 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Iowa...northern Missouri...and extreme west-central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301347Z - 301515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts are possible this morning and afternoon as a cluster of storms tracks southeast across southern Iowa into northern Missouri and extreme west-central Illinois. A watch may be needed this morning, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...A well organized cluster of storms currently moving into central Iowa has produced gusts near 50 kt within the past 30 minutes or so. This activity may be somewhat elevated in the wake of overnight convection. Nevertheless, 35-45 kt effective shear magnitudes and MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg will likely maintain organization. While outflow from overnight convection has surged southward to near I-70 in Missouri, the airmass has shown signs of quick recovery, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F noted in 13z surface obs. Clear skies ahead of the cluster will also allow for quick heating through the morning hours. As a result, downstream destabilization and erosion of capping is expected. The ongoing cluster of storms may continue to gradually intensify and pose a risk for damaging gusts into late morning/early afternoon as the downstream airmass continue to recover/destabilize. Given the effect of overnight convection on the airmass, there is some uncertainty in convective evolution and timing of possible watch issuance. Nevertheless, it appears possible a severe thunderstorm watch could be needed this morning across parts of the discussion area. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... LAT...LON 42349441 42269405 41809260 41299159 40839101 40509093 40249100 39839175 39769254 39799287 39929347 40419440 41129519 41509531 41969529 42349441 Read more

WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0568 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0568 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more