Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Northeast States/New England... The prominent upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build westward across the CONUS today, while some flattening of the ridge will occur over the Northeast and especially New England. The stronger mid-level westerlies will be located closer to the international border and across eastern Canada, with weaker winds aloft over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. A surface cold front will advance south into northern Maine, extending westward into southern lower Michigan by midday, with subsequent southeastward movement expected across the Northeast through early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for intensifying convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90 F, with a weak mid-level impulse/MCV near Lake Ontario this morning being an additional influence. While deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong in most areas, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected, contributing to upwards of 2000-3000 MLCAPE this afternoon particularly across upstate New York and interior New England/southern Maine. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms this afternoon. ...North-Central Plains... Weak mid-level height rises will occur over the central Plains through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft, and few embedded disturbances, from Utah/Wyoming toward the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis, focused across northeast Colorado later today, will contribute to a north-northwestward flux of low-level moisture across the central High Plains/eastern Wyoming and Black Hills vicinity. Initial thunderstorm development/intensification will occur over the mountains toward southeast Wyoming/Colorado Front Range by mid-afternoon, with subsequent development into the nearby High Plains this evening, in areas near/north of the surface low/triple point and east/northeastward-extending front. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Aided by an early evening strengthening of a southerly low-level jet, storms will likely consolidate and grow upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone focused across western/northern Nebraska and south-central/southern South Dakota. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS. ...Central Rockies/Four Corners Area... While not overly moist regionally, a west-northwestward flux of moisture and a moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to sustained thunderstorms, particularly from mid-afternoon through early evening. Some of these may produce severe-caliber downbursts. ...South Texas... Supercell/brief tornado related to Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to continue to diminish this morning as it moves inland and weakens over northeast Mexico. ...Central/eastern Montana... A weak mid-level disturbance, moderately strong flow aloft, and an adequately moist boundary layer may contribute to some strong/locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening, with hail/gusty winds possible. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Northeast States/New England... The prominent upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build westward across the CONUS today, while some flattening of the ridge will occur over the Northeast and especially New England. The stronger mid-level westerlies will be located closer to the international border and across eastern Canada, with weaker winds aloft over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. A surface cold front will advance south into northern Maine, extending westward into southern lower Michigan by midday, with subsequent southeastward movement expected across the Northeast through early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for intensifying convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90 F, with a weak mid-level impulse/MCV near Lake Ontario this morning being an additional influence. While deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong in most areas, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected, contributing to upwards of 2000-3000 MLCAPE this afternoon particularly across upstate New York and interior New England/southern Maine. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms this afternoon. ...North-Central Plains... Weak mid-level height rises will occur over the central Plains through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft, and few embedded disturbances, from Utah/Wyoming toward the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis, focused across northeast Colorado later today, will contribute to a north-northwestward flux of low-level moisture across the central High Plains/eastern Wyoming and Black Hills vicinity. Initial thunderstorm development/intensification will occur over the mountains toward southeast Wyoming/Colorado Front Range by mid-afternoon, with subsequent development into the nearby High Plains this evening, in areas near/north of the surface low/triple point and east/northeastward-extending front. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Aided by an early evening strengthening of a southerly low-level jet, storms will likely consolidate and grow upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone focused across western/northern Nebraska and south-central/southern South Dakota. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS. ...Central Rockies/Four Corners Area... While not overly moist regionally, a west-northwestward flux of moisture and a moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to sustained thunderstorms, particularly from mid-afternoon through early evening. Some of these may produce severe-caliber downbursts. ...South Texas... Supercell/brief tornado related to Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to continue to diminish this morning as it moves inland and weakens over northeast Mexico. ...Central/eastern Montana... A weak mid-level disturbance, moderately strong flow aloft, and an adequately moist boundary layer may contribute to some strong/locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening, with hail/gusty winds possible. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Northeast States/New England... The prominent upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build westward across the CONUS today, while some flattening of the ridge will occur over the Northeast and especially New England. The stronger mid-level westerlies will be located closer to the international border and across eastern Canada, with weaker winds aloft over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. A surface cold front will advance south into northern Maine, extending westward into southern lower Michigan by midday, with subsequent southeastward movement expected across the Northeast through early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for intensifying convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90 F, with a weak mid-level impulse/MCV near Lake Ontario this morning being an additional influence. While deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong in most areas, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected, contributing to upwards of 2000-3000 MLCAPE this afternoon particularly across upstate New York and interior New England/southern Maine. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms this afternoon. ...North-Central Plains... Weak mid-level height rises will occur over the central Plains through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft, and few embedded disturbances, from Utah/Wyoming toward the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis, focused across northeast Colorado later today, will contribute to a north-northwestward flux of low-level moisture across the central High Plains/eastern Wyoming and Black Hills vicinity. Initial thunderstorm development/intensification will occur over the mountains toward southeast Wyoming/Colorado Front Range by mid-afternoon, with subsequent development into the nearby High Plains this evening, in areas near/north of the surface low/triple point and east/northeastward-extending front. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Aided by an early evening strengthening of a southerly low-level jet, storms will likely consolidate and grow upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone focused across western/northern Nebraska and south-central/southern South Dakota. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS. ...Central Rockies/Four Corners Area... While not overly moist regionally, a west-northwestward flux of moisture and a moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to sustained thunderstorms, particularly from mid-afternoon through early evening. Some of these may produce severe-caliber downbursts. ...South Texas... Supercell/brief tornado related to Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to continue to diminish this morning as it moves inland and weakens over northeast Mexico. ...Central/eastern Montana... A weak mid-level disturbance, moderately strong flow aloft, and an adequately moist boundary layer may contribute to some strong/locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening, with hail/gusty winds possible. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Northeast States/New England... The prominent upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build westward across the CONUS today, while some flattening of the ridge will occur over the Northeast and especially New England. The stronger mid-level westerlies will be located closer to the international border and across eastern Canada, with weaker winds aloft over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. A surface cold front will advance south into northern Maine, extending westward into southern lower Michigan by midday, with subsequent southeastward movement expected across the Northeast through early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for intensifying convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90 F, with a weak mid-level impulse/MCV near Lake Ontario this morning being an additional influence. While deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong in most areas, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected, contributing to upwards of 2000-3000 MLCAPE this afternoon particularly across upstate New York and interior New England/southern Maine. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms this afternoon. ...North-Central Plains... Weak mid-level height rises will occur over the central Plains through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft, and few embedded disturbances, from Utah/Wyoming toward the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis, focused across northeast Colorado later today, will contribute to a north-northwestward flux of low-level moisture across the central High Plains/eastern Wyoming and Black Hills vicinity. Initial thunderstorm development/intensification will occur over the mountains toward southeast Wyoming/Colorado Front Range by mid-afternoon, with subsequent development into the nearby High Plains this evening, in areas near/north of the surface low/triple point and east/northeastward-extending front. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Aided by an early evening strengthening of a southerly low-level jet, storms will likely consolidate and grow upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone focused across western/northern Nebraska and south-central/southern South Dakota. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS. ...Central Rockies/Four Corners Area... While not overly moist regionally, a west-northwestward flux of moisture and a moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to sustained thunderstorms, particularly from mid-afternoon through early evening. Some of these may produce severe-caliber downbursts. ...South Texas... Supercell/brief tornado related to Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to continue to diminish this morning as it moves inland and weakens over northeast Mexico. ...Central/eastern Montana... A weak mid-level disturbance, moderately strong flow aloft, and an adequately moist boundary layer may contribute to some strong/locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening, with hail/gusty winds possible. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Northeast States/New England... The prominent upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build westward across the CONUS today, while some flattening of the ridge will occur over the Northeast and especially New England. The stronger mid-level westerlies will be located closer to the international border and across eastern Canada, with weaker winds aloft over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. A surface cold front will advance south into northern Maine, extending westward into southern lower Michigan by midday, with subsequent southeastward movement expected across the Northeast through early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for intensifying convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90 F, with a weak mid-level impulse/MCV near Lake Ontario this morning being an additional influence. While deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong in most areas, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected, contributing to upwards of 2000-3000 MLCAPE this afternoon particularly across upstate New York and interior New England/southern Maine. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms this afternoon. ...North-Central Plains... Weak mid-level height rises will occur over the central Plains through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft, and few embedded disturbances, from Utah/Wyoming toward the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis, focused across northeast Colorado later today, will contribute to a north-northwestward flux of low-level moisture across the central High Plains/eastern Wyoming and Black Hills vicinity. Initial thunderstorm development/intensification will occur over the mountains toward southeast Wyoming/Colorado Front Range by mid-afternoon, with subsequent development into the nearby High Plains this evening, in areas near/north of the surface low/triple point and east/northeastward-extending front. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Aided by an early evening strengthening of a southerly low-level jet, storms will likely consolidate and grow upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone focused across western/northern Nebraska and south-central/southern South Dakota. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS. ...Central Rockies/Four Corners Area... While not overly moist regionally, a west-northwestward flux of moisture and a moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to sustained thunderstorms, particularly from mid-afternoon through early evening. Some of these may produce severe-caliber downbursts. ...South Texas... Supercell/brief tornado related to Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to continue to diminish this morning as it moves inland and weakens over northeast Mexico. ...Central/eastern Montana... A weak mid-level disturbance, moderately strong flow aloft, and an adequately moist boundary layer may contribute to some strong/locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening, with hail/gusty winds possible. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Northeast States/New England... The prominent upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build westward across the CONUS today, while some flattening of the ridge will occur over the Northeast and especially New England. The stronger mid-level westerlies will be located closer to the international border and across eastern Canada, with weaker winds aloft over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. A surface cold front will advance south into northern Maine, extending westward into southern lower Michigan by midday, with subsequent southeastward movement expected across the Northeast through early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for intensifying convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90 F, with a weak mid-level impulse/MCV near Lake Ontario this morning being an additional influence. While deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong in most areas, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected, contributing to upwards of 2000-3000 MLCAPE this afternoon particularly across upstate New York and interior New England/southern Maine. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms this afternoon. ...North-Central Plains... Weak mid-level height rises will occur over the central Plains through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft, and few embedded disturbances, from Utah/Wyoming toward the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis, focused across northeast Colorado later today, will contribute to a north-northwestward flux of low-level moisture across the central High Plains/eastern Wyoming and Black Hills vicinity. Initial thunderstorm development/intensification will occur over the mountains toward southeast Wyoming/Colorado Front Range by mid-afternoon, with subsequent development into the nearby High Plains this evening, in areas near/north of the surface low/triple point and east/northeastward-extending front. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Aided by an early evening strengthening of a southerly low-level jet, storms will likely consolidate and grow upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone focused across western/northern Nebraska and south-central/southern South Dakota. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS. ...Central Rockies/Four Corners Area... While not overly moist regionally, a west-northwestward flux of moisture and a moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to sustained thunderstorms, particularly from mid-afternoon through early evening. Some of these may produce severe-caliber downbursts. ...South Texas... Supercell/brief tornado related to Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to continue to diminish this morning as it moves inland and weakens over northeast Mexico. ...Central/eastern Montana... A weak mid-level disturbance, moderately strong flow aloft, and an adequately moist boundary layer may contribute to some strong/locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening, with hail/gusty winds possible. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Northeast States/New England... The prominent upper anticyclone currently centered over the middle Atlantic will gradually build westward across the CONUS today, while some flattening of the ridge will occur over the Northeast and especially New England. The stronger mid-level westerlies will be located closer to the international border and across eastern Canada, with weaker winds aloft over the lower Great Lakes into southern New England. A surface cold front will advance south into northern Maine, extending westward into southern lower Michigan by midday, with subsequent southeastward movement expected across the Northeast through early evening. This boundary will serve as the focus for intensifying convection later today as surface temperatures quickly soar through the 80s into the lower 90 F, with a weak mid-level impulse/MCV near Lake Ontario this morning being an additional influence. While deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong in most areas, PW values are seasonally moist with 1.5-2 inches expected, contributing to upwards of 2000-3000 MLCAPE this afternoon particularly across upstate New York and interior New England/southern Maine. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms this afternoon. ...North-Central Plains... Weak mid-level height rises will occur over the central Plains through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft, and few embedded disturbances, from Utah/Wyoming toward the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis, focused across northeast Colorado later today, will contribute to a north-northwestward flux of low-level moisture across the central High Plains/eastern Wyoming and Black Hills vicinity. Initial thunderstorm development/intensification will occur over the mountains toward southeast Wyoming/Colorado Front Range by mid-afternoon, with subsequent development into the nearby High Plains this evening, in areas near/north of the surface low/triple point and east/northeastward-extending front. Initial storm mode should be supercellular and large hail is expected. Aided by an early evening strengthening of a southerly low-level jet, storms will likely consolidate and grow upscale into a possible MCS within the warm-advection zone focused across western/northern Nebraska and south-central/southern South Dakota. Severe wind gusts could materialize along the leading edge of the MCS. ...Central Rockies/Four Corners Area... While not overly moist regionally, a west-northwestward flux of moisture and a moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to sustained thunderstorms, particularly from mid-afternoon through early evening. Some of these may produce severe-caliber downbursts. ...South Texas... Supercell/brief tornado related to Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to continue to diminish this morning as it moves inland and weakens over northeast Mexico. ...Central/eastern Montana... A weak mid-level disturbance, moderately strong flow aloft, and an adequately moist boundary layer may contribute to some strong/locally severe storms late this afternoon and early evening, with hail/gusty winds possible. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 06/20/2024 Read more

MD 1339 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 437... FOR SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1339 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Areas affected...south Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 437... Valid 201042Z - 201215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 437 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado risk may persist another couple of hours across south Texas before waning through the morning hours. DISCUSSION...Convection has shown very minor rotation over the past several hours across south Texas. Overall intensity has remained weak, and lightning trends have decreased early this morning. Forecast guidance suggests low-level shear will weaken through early/mid-morning. Overall expectation is that a new tornado watch will not be needed, though a local extension in time may be considered if any convection shows signs of intensification over the next hour. ..Leitman.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 28080036 28379915 28129810 27589682 26719661 26019681 25829748 26219879 26459921 27149961 28080036 Read more

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD TO 25 WNW ALI TO 55 ESE CRP. ..LEITMAN..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-061-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-427-479-489-505-201040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS CAMERON DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES STARR WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-250-201040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD TO 25 WNW ALI TO 55 ESE CRP. ..LEITMAN..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-061-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-427-479-489-505-201040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS CAMERON DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES STARR WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-250-201040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD TO 25 WNW ALI TO 55 ESE CRP. ..LEITMAN..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-061-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-427-479-489-505-201040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS CAMERON DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES STARR WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-250-201040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more

WW 437 TORNADO TX CW 200025Z - 201200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 437 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 725 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 725 PM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...A gradual strengthening and westward/inland spread of supercell-favorable conditions is expected through the overnight hours, north through northeast of the center of Tropical Storm Alberto. This should increase the potential for tornadoes, at first near parts of the lower/middle Texas Coast, then inland toward the Rio Grande Valley by late tonight. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles south southeast of Mcallen TX to 35 miles west northwest of Victoria TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 436... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 10035. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0437 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD TO 15 N ALI TO 50 ESE CRP. ..LEITMAN..06/20/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 437 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-061-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-427-479-489-505-200940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS CAMERON DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES STARR WEBB WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ130-132-135-150-155-231-250-200940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/D5, and upper trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The primary surface low will be well to the north in Quebec, but a cold front will extend south and likely interaction with a moist and marginally unstable air mass with at least 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This may yield areas of strong storms over the region, and the trough progression will need to be monitored in upcoming outlooks. For Tuesday/D6 through Thursday/D8 period, a strong upper ridge is forecast over the Four Corners states, with strong northwest flow possibly developing from the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. This type of setup could result in a severe MCS pattern over parts of the northern Plains to Midwest with damaging wind potential, possibly beginning as early as late Monday/D5 over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Predictability of the potential severe corridors is low at this time, but severe areas could be introduced in later outlooks. Read more