Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more