Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the previous forecast is on track for Saturday. Localized elevated to critical meteorological conditions may develop across portions of the northern Basin and Range/Northern Deserts of CA, but given their limited duration, and mostly average fuel moisture content within this region, an Elevated area is not warranted at this time. Please see the discussion below for synoptic pattern details. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Saturday, upper-level ridging will gradually shift westward and the strongest mid-level winds will stay within the northern half of the CONUS. An upper-level shortwave will approach the Northwest late in the period. Surface winds will again be generally light across the Great Basin into the Northwest. While brief and locally elevated conditions may occur, highlights do not appear necessary at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the previous forecast is on track for Saturday. Localized elevated to critical meteorological conditions may develop across portions of the northern Basin and Range/Northern Deserts of CA, but given their limited duration, and mostly average fuel moisture content within this region, an Elevated area is not warranted at this time. Please see the discussion below for synoptic pattern details. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Saturday, upper-level ridging will gradually shift westward and the strongest mid-level winds will stay within the northern half of the CONUS. An upper-level shortwave will approach the Northwest late in the period. Surface winds will again be generally light across the Great Basin into the Northwest. While brief and locally elevated conditions may occur, highlights do not appear necessary at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the previous forecast is on track for Saturday. Localized elevated to critical meteorological conditions may develop across portions of the northern Basin and Range/Northern Deserts of CA, but given their limited duration, and mostly average fuel moisture content within this region, an Elevated area is not warranted at this time. Please see the discussion below for synoptic pattern details. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Saturday, upper-level ridging will gradually shift westward and the strongest mid-level winds will stay within the northern half of the CONUS. An upper-level shortwave will approach the Northwest late in the period. Surface winds will again be generally light across the Great Basin into the Northwest. While brief and locally elevated conditions may occur, highlights do not appear necessary at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The previous forecast and discussion from below remain valid. Although isolated dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of northeastern NV, far northern UT, and far southeastern ID this afternoon and evening, fuels within these areas do not appear receptive at this time. Considering this, and continued uncertainty in thunderstorm development, a small Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area will not be included. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Though the upper-level trough across the West will be losing amplitude today, some mid-level flow enhancement will remain across the parts of the southern Great Basin. Mid-level moisture will also continue to push northwestward. Locally dry and breezy conditions appear probable in parts of western Arizona into southern Nevada and southwest Utah. Absent any stronger synoptic features, duration of any elevated conditions should be rather brief. Thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. This activity should produce wetting rains. Along the periphery of the moisture plume, some drier thunderstorms are possible. However, initiation and coverage in northern Nevada/southern Idaho are much too uncertain for any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The previous forecast and discussion from below remain valid. Although isolated dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of northeastern NV, far northern UT, and far southeastern ID this afternoon and evening, fuels within these areas do not appear receptive at this time. Considering this, and continued uncertainty in thunderstorm development, a small Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area will not be included. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Though the upper-level trough across the West will be losing amplitude today, some mid-level flow enhancement will remain across the parts of the southern Great Basin. Mid-level moisture will also continue to push northwestward. Locally dry and breezy conditions appear probable in parts of western Arizona into southern Nevada and southwest Utah. Absent any stronger synoptic features, duration of any elevated conditions should be rather brief. Thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. This activity should produce wetting rains. Along the periphery of the moisture plume, some drier thunderstorms are possible. However, initiation and coverage in northern Nevada/southern Idaho are much too uncertain for any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The previous forecast and discussion from below remain valid. Although isolated dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of northeastern NV, far northern UT, and far southeastern ID this afternoon and evening, fuels within these areas do not appear receptive at this time. Considering this, and continued uncertainty in thunderstorm development, a small Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area will not be included. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Though the upper-level trough across the West will be losing amplitude today, some mid-level flow enhancement will remain across the parts of the southern Great Basin. Mid-level moisture will also continue to push northwestward. Locally dry and breezy conditions appear probable in parts of western Arizona into southern Nevada and southwest Utah. Absent any stronger synoptic features, duration of any elevated conditions should be rather brief. Thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. This activity should produce wetting rains. Along the periphery of the moisture plume, some drier thunderstorms are possible. However, initiation and coverage in northern Nevada/southern Idaho are much too uncertain for any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The previous forecast and discussion from below remain valid. Although isolated dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of northeastern NV, far northern UT, and far southeastern ID this afternoon and evening, fuels within these areas do not appear receptive at this time. Considering this, and continued uncertainty in thunderstorm development, a small Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area will not be included. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Though the upper-level trough across the West will be losing amplitude today, some mid-level flow enhancement will remain across the parts of the southern Great Basin. Mid-level moisture will also continue to push northwestward. Locally dry and breezy conditions appear probable in parts of western Arizona into southern Nevada and southwest Utah. Absent any stronger synoptic features, duration of any elevated conditions should be rather brief. Thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. This activity should produce wetting rains. Along the periphery of the moisture plume, some drier thunderstorms are possible. However, initiation and coverage in northern Nevada/southern Idaho are much too uncertain for any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The previous forecast and discussion from below remain valid. Although isolated dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of northeastern NV, far northern UT, and far southeastern ID this afternoon and evening, fuels within these areas do not appear receptive at this time. Considering this, and continued uncertainty in thunderstorm development, a small Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area will not be included. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Though the upper-level trough across the West will be losing amplitude today, some mid-level flow enhancement will remain across the parts of the southern Great Basin. Mid-level moisture will also continue to push northwestward. Locally dry and breezy conditions appear probable in parts of western Arizona into southern Nevada and southwest Utah. Absent any stronger synoptic features, duration of any elevated conditions should be rather brief. Thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. This activity should produce wetting rains. Along the periphery of the moisture plume, some drier thunderstorms are possible. However, initiation and coverage in northern Nevada/southern Idaho are much too uncertain for any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The previous forecast and discussion from below remain valid. Although isolated dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of northeastern NV, far northern UT, and far southeastern ID this afternoon and evening, fuels within these areas do not appear receptive at this time. Considering this, and continued uncertainty in thunderstorm development, a small Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area will not be included. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Though the upper-level trough across the West will be losing amplitude today, some mid-level flow enhancement will remain across the parts of the southern Great Basin. Mid-level moisture will also continue to push northwestward. Locally dry and breezy conditions appear probable in parts of western Arizona into southern Nevada and southwest Utah. Absent any stronger synoptic features, duration of any elevated conditions should be rather brief. Thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. This activity should produce wetting rains. Along the periphery of the moisture plume, some drier thunderstorms are possible. However, initiation and coverage in northern Nevada/southern Idaho are much too uncertain for any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The previous forecast and discussion from below remain valid. Although isolated dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of northeastern NV, far northern UT, and far southeastern ID this afternoon and evening, fuels within these areas do not appear receptive at this time. Considering this, and continued uncertainty in thunderstorm development, a small Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area will not be included. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Though the upper-level trough across the West will be losing amplitude today, some mid-level flow enhancement will remain across the parts of the southern Great Basin. Mid-level moisture will also continue to push northwestward. Locally dry and breezy conditions appear probable in parts of western Arizona into southern Nevada and southwest Utah. Absent any stronger synoptic features, duration of any elevated conditions should be rather brief. Thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. This activity should produce wetting rains. Along the periphery of the moisture plume, some drier thunderstorms are possible. However, initiation and coverage in northern Nevada/southern Idaho are much too uncertain for any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The previous forecast and discussion from below remain valid. Although isolated dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of northeastern NV, far northern UT, and far southeastern ID this afternoon and evening, fuels within these areas do not appear receptive at this time. Considering this, and continued uncertainty in thunderstorm development, a small Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area will not be included. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Though the upper-level trough across the West will be losing amplitude today, some mid-level flow enhancement will remain across the parts of the southern Great Basin. Mid-level moisture will also continue to push northwestward. Locally dry and breezy conditions appear probable in parts of western Arizona into southern Nevada and southwest Utah. Absent any stronger synoptic features, duration of any elevated conditions should be rather brief. Thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. This activity should produce wetting rains. Along the periphery of the moisture plume, some drier thunderstorms are possible. However, initiation and coverage in northern Nevada/southern Idaho are much too uncertain for any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The previous forecast and discussion from below remain valid. Although isolated dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of northeastern NV, far northern UT, and far southeastern ID this afternoon and evening, fuels within these areas do not appear receptive at this time. Considering this, and continued uncertainty in thunderstorm development, a small Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area will not be included. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Though the upper-level trough across the West will be losing amplitude today, some mid-level flow enhancement will remain across the parts of the southern Great Basin. Mid-level moisture will also continue to push northwestward. Locally dry and breezy conditions appear probable in parts of western Arizona into southern Nevada and southwest Utah. Absent any stronger synoptic features, duration of any elevated conditions should be rather brief. Thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. This activity should produce wetting rains. Along the periphery of the moisture plume, some drier thunderstorms are possible. However, initiation and coverage in northern Nevada/southern Idaho are much too uncertain for any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The previous forecast and discussion from below remain valid. Although isolated dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of northeastern NV, far northern UT, and far southeastern ID this afternoon and evening, fuels within these areas do not appear receptive at this time. Considering this, and continued uncertainty in thunderstorm development, a small Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area will not be included. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Though the upper-level trough across the West will be losing amplitude today, some mid-level flow enhancement will remain across the parts of the southern Great Basin. Mid-level moisture will also continue to push northwestward. Locally dry and breezy conditions appear probable in parts of western Arizona into southern Nevada and southwest Utah. Absent any stronger synoptic features, duration of any elevated conditions should be rather brief. Thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. This activity should produce wetting rains. Along the periphery of the moisture plume, some drier thunderstorms are possible. However, initiation and coverage in northern Nevada/southern Idaho are much too uncertain for any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The previous forecast and discussion from below remain valid. Although isolated dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of northeastern NV, far northern UT, and far southeastern ID this afternoon and evening, fuels within these areas do not appear receptive at this time. Considering this, and continued uncertainty in thunderstorm development, a small Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area will not be included. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Though the upper-level trough across the West will be losing amplitude today, some mid-level flow enhancement will remain across the parts of the southern Great Basin. Mid-level moisture will also continue to push northwestward. Locally dry and breezy conditions appear probable in parts of western Arizona into southern Nevada and southwest Utah. Absent any stronger synoptic features, duration of any elevated conditions should be rather brief. Thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. This activity should produce wetting rains. Along the periphery of the moisture plume, some drier thunderstorms are possible. However, initiation and coverage in northern Nevada/southern Idaho are much too uncertain for any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The previous forecast and discussion from below remain valid. Although isolated dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of northeastern NV, far northern UT, and far southeastern ID this afternoon and evening, fuels within these areas do not appear receptive at this time. Considering this, and continued uncertainty in thunderstorm development, a small Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area will not be included. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Though the upper-level trough across the West will be losing amplitude today, some mid-level flow enhancement will remain across the parts of the southern Great Basin. Mid-level moisture will also continue to push northwestward. Locally dry and breezy conditions appear probable in parts of western Arizona into southern Nevada and southwest Utah. Absent any stronger synoptic features, duration of any elevated conditions should be rather brief. Thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. This activity should produce wetting rains. Along the periphery of the moisture plume, some drier thunderstorms are possible. However, initiation and coverage in northern Nevada/southern Idaho are much too uncertain for any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The previous forecast and discussion from below remain valid. Although isolated dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of northeastern NV, far northern UT, and far southeastern ID this afternoon and evening, fuels within these areas do not appear receptive at this time. Considering this, and continued uncertainty in thunderstorm development, a small Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area will not be included. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Though the upper-level trough across the West will be losing amplitude today, some mid-level flow enhancement will remain across the parts of the southern Great Basin. Mid-level moisture will also continue to push northwestward. Locally dry and breezy conditions appear probable in parts of western Arizona into southern Nevada and southwest Utah. Absent any stronger synoptic features, duration of any elevated conditions should be rather brief. Thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. This activity should produce wetting rains. Along the periphery of the moisture plume, some drier thunderstorms are possible. However, initiation and coverage in northern Nevada/southern Idaho are much too uncertain for any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The previous forecast and discussion from below remain valid. Although isolated dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of northeastern NV, far northern UT, and far southeastern ID this afternoon and evening, fuels within these areas do not appear receptive at this time. Considering this, and continued uncertainty in thunderstorm development, a small Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area will not be included. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Though the upper-level trough across the West will be losing amplitude today, some mid-level flow enhancement will remain across the parts of the southern Great Basin. Mid-level moisture will also continue to push northwestward. Locally dry and breezy conditions appear probable in parts of western Arizona into southern Nevada and southwest Utah. Absent any stronger synoptic features, duration of any elevated conditions should be rather brief. Thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. This activity should produce wetting rains. Along the periphery of the moisture plume, some drier thunderstorms are possible. However, initiation and coverage in northern Nevada/southern Idaho are much too uncertain for any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The previous forecast and discussion from below remain valid. Although isolated dry thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of northeastern NV, far northern UT, and far southeastern ID this afternoon and evening, fuels within these areas do not appear receptive at this time. Considering this, and continued uncertainty in thunderstorm development, a small Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area will not be included. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Though the upper-level trough across the West will be losing amplitude today, some mid-level flow enhancement will remain across the parts of the southern Great Basin. Mid-level moisture will also continue to push northwestward. Locally dry and breezy conditions appear probable in parts of western Arizona into southern Nevada and southwest Utah. Absent any stronger synoptic features, duration of any elevated conditions should be rather brief. Thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. This activity should produce wetting rains. Along the periphery of the moisture plume, some drier thunderstorms are possible. However, initiation and coverage in northern Nevada/southern Idaho are much too uncertain for any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/21/2024 Read more