Severe Storms

WW 441 SEVERE TSTM CO NM UT WY 211805Z - 220100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 441 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Colorado Northwest New Mexico Central and Eastern Utah Southwest Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 700 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will form across the watch area through the afternoon. The more intense cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 80 miles north northeast of Vernal UT to 85 miles southwest of Farmington NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

MD 1363 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Areas affected...Southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212153Z - 212330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe winds are possible in parts of southeastern Arizona. DISCUSSION...A tropical moisture plume within the Southwest (PWAT values greater than 1 in. per GPS TPW in southeast Arizona) continues to foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Shear is relatively weak per regional VAD data, and strong heating has been somewhat muted by high-level cloud cover. Even so, temperature-dewpoint spreads are sufficient to support a few strong to severe wind gusts. With higher than average moisture content, enough storm coverage may exist for a cluster to two to develop. Should this occur, a locally greater wind threat would exist with those clusters. Storm coverage into the western portions of the Phoenix metro is fairly uncertain, but outflow could try and push westward into a much more well-mixed boundary layer (temperatures in excess of 110 F) and produce strong winds. ..Wendt/Edwards.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 31641073 32521129 33181163 33771178 34111143 34141078 33800978 33380920 32300911 31530913 31330986 31351053 31641073 Read more

MD 1364 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445... FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1364 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Areas affected...Parts of northern IA and southern MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445... Valid 212158Z - 212330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 continues. SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for possible downstream watch issuance in northern Iowa and perhaps far southern Minnesota. At least isolated severe hail/damaging winds and a couple tornadoes all appear possible. DISCUSSION...A supercell which has recently exhibited some low-level rotation is ongoing across northwest IA, generally along/near a surface front. Other strong to severe convection is ongoing farther east across northern IA along this boundary. This activity is likely being aided by modest warm advection associated with a weak southwesterly low-level jet over the central Plains and mid MO Valley. Although mid-level flow is not overly strong per recent mesoanalysis estimates, sufficient veering/strengthening of the winds through mid levels (in recent VWPs from KFSD) is supporting around 30-45 kt of deep-layer shear. A mix of multicells and supercells will remain possible as convection spreads slowly eastward along/near the front across northern IA over the next several hours. At least isolated severe hail around 1-2 inches in diameter and damaging winds generally 55-70 mph should be the main threats with this activity in the short term. The threat for severe winds may increase this evening if a small bowing cluster can consolidate along the front. Low-level shear/winds remain somewhat weak at the moment, but a couple of tornadoes may still occur with any sustained, surface-based supercell. Observational trends will be closely monitored for possible downstream watch issuance into northern IA and vicinity. ..Gleason/Edwards.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 43319573 43669546 43869466 43889257 43869166 43539129 43009136 42869244 42569401 42389497 42579543 43319573 Read more

WW 0442 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 442 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/21/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC005-013-015-027-035-037-041-045-051-059-065-069-073-099-101- 107-212340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CASCADE CHOUTEAU FERGUS GLACIER GOLDEN VALLEY HILL JUDITH BASIN LIBERTY MEAGHER MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PONDERA TETON TOOLE WHEATLAND THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1362 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444... FOR CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1362 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Areas affected...Connecticut...Massachusetts...Rhode Island Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444... Valid 212145Z - 212315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized MCS, with a history of at least a few damaging gusts, persists across portions of New England. An instance of 1 inch diameter hail was also recently reported. Mesoanalysis trends depict low-level (0-3 km) lapse rates decreasing with eastward extent, and from 8 to 6 C/km overall over the past couple of hours. As such, the severe threat may have already peaked in intensity. Nonetheless, a cold pool appears to be driving ongoing convection, suggesting that at least a couple more damaging gusts and perhaps an instance of hail remain possible over the next few hours. ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX... LAT...LON 41387264 42367219 42647160 42517093 42127079 41637097 41357129 41317230 41387264 Read more

WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 441 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365 ..WENDT..06/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GJT...ABQ...SLC...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC029-033-045-067-077-081-083-085-091-103-111-113-212340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELTA DOLORES GARFIELD LA PLATA MESA MOFFAT MONTEZUMA MONTROSE OURAY RIO BLANCO SAN JUAN SAN MIGUEL NMC006-031-045-212340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIBOLA MCKINLEY SAN JUAN UTC007-009-013-015-017-019-025-031-037-039-041-047-051-055- 212340- UT . UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0444 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 444 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S POU TO 30 WNW GON TO 25 ESE BDL TO 15 ESE EEN. ..SQUITIERI..06/21/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-007-009-011-015-212340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON WINDHAM MAC027-212340- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WORCESTER RIC003-007-009-212340- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT PROVIDENCE WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0444 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 444 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S POU TO 30 WNW GON TO 25 ESE BDL TO 15 ESE EEN. ..SQUITIERI..06/21/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-007-009-011-015-212340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON WINDHAM MAC027-212340- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WORCESTER RIC003-007-009-212340- RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT PROVIDENCE WASHINGTON Read more

WW 444 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NY RI CW 211935Z - 220000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 444 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Western and Central Massachusetts Southeast New York Rhode Island Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A linear cluster of thunderstorms will likely continue east during the afternoon into the early evening across the Watch area. The environment will support sporadic strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage with the stronger thunderstorm cores. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Pittsfield MA to 25 miles east of Bridgeport CT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 441...WW 442...WW 443... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..06/21/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...BYZ...CYS...RIW...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC069-075-095-115-123-212340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LARIMER LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WELD MTC003-212340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-212340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX Read more

WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364 ..GLEASON..06/21/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...GID...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-041-059-119-141-143-149-167-193-212340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC063-105-133-212340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON NOBLES ROCK NEC003-009-011-015-017-019-027-041-043-047-051-057-063-071-073- 077-079-085-087-089-093-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-125-137-139- 141-145-149-163-167-171-173-175-179-183-212340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1361 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442... FOR CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1361 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Areas affected...Central Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442... Valid 212058Z - 212230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 442 continues. SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat continues for WW 442. The threat for damaging winds and hail is greatest in Central MT where two isolated supercells have developed and begun tracking east-southeast. Local WW extension may be needed further N into Phillips County due to a southeastward moving supercell in Blaine County. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has increased this afternoon over the northern Rockies in W MT, with clusters of cells beginning to move off of the higher terrain into the better buoyancy and shear. These cells are capable of producing 1+ inch hail and damaging winds. In Central MT, two isolated supercells have developed and begun moving east-southeast. These storms are in an environment of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 45-50 kts of deep layer shear, supporting a continued damaging wind and large hail threat. Further east in Blaine County, near the Canadian border, a storm has developed that may track outside of the watch area, warranting local WW extension. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 47721223 47991270 48401317 48731307 48871264 48831217 48871114 48881046 48890977 48880900 48880860 48810822 48660797 48510776 48320765 47980753 47570733 47310725 47000719 46680716 46410744 46250788 46210863 46210888 46180898 46180954 46241042 46361076 46631113 46901149 47151176 47451185 47721223 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Increasing mid-level southwesterlies will accompany a north Pacific shortwave trough late this weekend from WA southward across ID. Until then, hot and dry conditions under a mid to upper-level ridge will continue to result in curing/drying of fuels from portions of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Southwest. Increasing westerly and southwesterly surface winds will develop ahead of and behind a dry cold front moving through WA and OR D3/Sunday. Low critical probabilities have been extended southward to include south-central OR and northwestern NV, where widespread RH of less than 15 percent will combine with 15-20 mph sustained wind speeds. Similar wind speeds, and slightly higher RH, are still anticipated across the Columbia Basin. Critical meteorological conditions appear likely across the Upper Snake Plain of ID D3. However, confidence in the introduction of higher critical probabilities within this region is low considering less receptive fuels. Very similar conditions will follow D4/Monday over the same area. Surface wind speeds will decrease across the Pacific Northwest, the majority of the Great Basin, and Southwest D5/Tuesday, as the mid to upper-level ridge amplifies again over the western CONUS. This decrease will be less noticeable across the Upper Snake Plain, but limited spatial extent of critical speeds does not warrant the introduction of low probabilities at this time. A return to at least locally elevated conditions will be possible D6-D8 across the Great Basin, and perhaps Pacific Northwest, as another upper-level trough and strengthening mid-level flow traverse the northwestern CONUS. Low critical probabilities may need to be introduced in future forecasts within these regions as details regarding more precise wind and RH thresholds emerge. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Increasing mid-level southwesterlies will accompany a north Pacific shortwave trough late this weekend from WA southward across ID. Until then, hot and dry conditions under a mid to upper-level ridge will continue to result in curing/drying of fuels from portions of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Southwest. Increasing westerly and southwesterly surface winds will develop ahead of and behind a dry cold front moving through WA and OR D3/Sunday. Low critical probabilities have been extended southward to include south-central OR and northwestern NV, where widespread RH of less than 15 percent will combine with 15-20 mph sustained wind speeds. Similar wind speeds, and slightly higher RH, are still anticipated across the Columbia Basin. Critical meteorological conditions appear likely across the Upper Snake Plain of ID D3. However, confidence in the introduction of higher critical probabilities within this region is low considering less receptive fuels. Very similar conditions will follow D4/Monday over the same area. Surface wind speeds will decrease across the Pacific Northwest, the majority of the Great Basin, and Southwest D5/Tuesday, as the mid to upper-level ridge amplifies again over the western CONUS. This decrease will be less noticeable across the Upper Snake Plain, but limited spatial extent of critical speeds does not warrant the introduction of low probabilities at this time. A return to at least locally elevated conditions will be possible D6-D8 across the Great Basin, and perhaps Pacific Northwest, as another upper-level trough and strengthening mid-level flow traverse the northwestern CONUS. Low critical probabilities may need to be introduced in future forecasts within these regions as details regarding more precise wind and RH thresholds emerge. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Increasing mid-level southwesterlies will accompany a north Pacific shortwave trough late this weekend from WA southward across ID. Until then, hot and dry conditions under a mid to upper-level ridge will continue to result in curing/drying of fuels from portions of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Southwest. Increasing westerly and southwesterly surface winds will develop ahead of and behind a dry cold front moving through WA and OR D3/Sunday. Low critical probabilities have been extended southward to include south-central OR and northwestern NV, where widespread RH of less than 15 percent will combine with 15-20 mph sustained wind speeds. Similar wind speeds, and slightly higher RH, are still anticipated across the Columbia Basin. Critical meteorological conditions appear likely across the Upper Snake Plain of ID D3. However, confidence in the introduction of higher critical probabilities within this region is low considering less receptive fuels. Very similar conditions will follow D4/Monday over the same area. Surface wind speeds will decrease across the Pacific Northwest, the majority of the Great Basin, and Southwest D5/Tuesday, as the mid to upper-level ridge amplifies again over the western CONUS. This decrease will be less noticeable across the Upper Snake Plain, but limited spatial extent of critical speeds does not warrant the introduction of low probabilities at this time. A return to at least locally elevated conditions will be possible D6-D8 across the Great Basin, and perhaps Pacific Northwest, as another upper-level trough and strengthening mid-level flow traverse the northwestern CONUS. Low critical probabilities may need to be introduced in future forecasts within these regions as details regarding more precise wind and RH thresholds emerge. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Increasing mid-level southwesterlies will accompany a north Pacific shortwave trough late this weekend from WA southward across ID. Until then, hot and dry conditions under a mid to upper-level ridge will continue to result in curing/drying of fuels from portions of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Southwest. Increasing westerly and southwesterly surface winds will develop ahead of and behind a dry cold front moving through WA and OR D3/Sunday. Low critical probabilities have been extended southward to include south-central OR and northwestern NV, where widespread RH of less than 15 percent will combine with 15-20 mph sustained wind speeds. Similar wind speeds, and slightly higher RH, are still anticipated across the Columbia Basin. Critical meteorological conditions appear likely across the Upper Snake Plain of ID D3. However, confidence in the introduction of higher critical probabilities within this region is low considering less receptive fuels. Very similar conditions will follow D4/Monday over the same area. Surface wind speeds will decrease across the Pacific Northwest, the majority of the Great Basin, and Southwest D5/Tuesday, as the mid to upper-level ridge amplifies again over the western CONUS. This decrease will be less noticeable across the Upper Snake Plain, but limited spatial extent of critical speeds does not warrant the introduction of low probabilities at this time. A return to at least locally elevated conditions will be possible D6-D8 across the Great Basin, and perhaps Pacific Northwest, as another upper-level trough and strengthening mid-level flow traverse the northwestern CONUS. Low critical probabilities may need to be introduced in future forecasts within these regions as details regarding more precise wind and RH thresholds emerge. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Increasing mid-level southwesterlies will accompany a north Pacific shortwave trough late this weekend from WA southward across ID. Until then, hot and dry conditions under a mid to upper-level ridge will continue to result in curing/drying of fuels from portions of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Southwest. Increasing westerly and southwesterly surface winds will develop ahead of and behind a dry cold front moving through WA and OR D3/Sunday. Low critical probabilities have been extended southward to include south-central OR and northwestern NV, where widespread RH of less than 15 percent will combine with 15-20 mph sustained wind speeds. Similar wind speeds, and slightly higher RH, are still anticipated across the Columbia Basin. Critical meteorological conditions appear likely across the Upper Snake Plain of ID D3. However, confidence in the introduction of higher critical probabilities within this region is low considering less receptive fuels. Very similar conditions will follow D4/Monday over the same area. Surface wind speeds will decrease across the Pacific Northwest, the majority of the Great Basin, and Southwest D5/Tuesday, as the mid to upper-level ridge amplifies again over the western CONUS. This decrease will be less noticeable across the Upper Snake Plain, but limited spatial extent of critical speeds does not warrant the introduction of low probabilities at this time. A return to at least locally elevated conditions will be possible D6-D8 across the Great Basin, and perhaps Pacific Northwest, as another upper-level trough and strengthening mid-level flow traverse the northwestern CONUS. Low critical probabilities may need to be introduced in future forecasts within these regions as details regarding more precise wind and RH thresholds emerge. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Increasing mid-level southwesterlies will accompany a north Pacific shortwave trough late this weekend from WA southward across ID. Until then, hot and dry conditions under a mid to upper-level ridge will continue to result in curing/drying of fuels from portions of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Southwest. Increasing westerly and southwesterly surface winds will develop ahead of and behind a dry cold front moving through WA and OR D3/Sunday. Low critical probabilities have been extended southward to include south-central OR and northwestern NV, where widespread RH of less than 15 percent will combine with 15-20 mph sustained wind speeds. Similar wind speeds, and slightly higher RH, are still anticipated across the Columbia Basin. Critical meteorological conditions appear likely across the Upper Snake Plain of ID D3. However, confidence in the introduction of higher critical probabilities within this region is low considering less receptive fuels. Very similar conditions will follow D4/Monday over the same area. Surface wind speeds will decrease across the Pacific Northwest, the majority of the Great Basin, and Southwest D5/Tuesday, as the mid to upper-level ridge amplifies again over the western CONUS. This decrease will be less noticeable across the Upper Snake Plain, but limited spatial extent of critical speeds does not warrant the introduction of low probabilities at this time. A return to at least locally elevated conditions will be possible D6-D8 across the Great Basin, and perhaps Pacific Northwest, as another upper-level trough and strengthening mid-level flow traverse the northwestern CONUS. Low critical probabilities may need to be introduced in future forecasts within these regions as details regarding more precise wind and RH thresholds emerge. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Increasing mid-level southwesterlies will accompany a north Pacific shortwave trough late this weekend from WA southward across ID. Until then, hot and dry conditions under a mid to upper-level ridge will continue to result in curing/drying of fuels from portions of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Southwest. Increasing westerly and southwesterly surface winds will develop ahead of and behind a dry cold front moving through WA and OR D3/Sunday. Low critical probabilities have been extended southward to include south-central OR and northwestern NV, where widespread RH of less than 15 percent will combine with 15-20 mph sustained wind speeds. Similar wind speeds, and slightly higher RH, are still anticipated across the Columbia Basin. Critical meteorological conditions appear likely across the Upper Snake Plain of ID D3. However, confidence in the introduction of higher critical probabilities within this region is low considering less receptive fuels. Very similar conditions will follow D4/Monday over the same area. Surface wind speeds will decrease across the Pacific Northwest, the majority of the Great Basin, and Southwest D5/Tuesday, as the mid to upper-level ridge amplifies again over the western CONUS. This decrease will be less noticeable across the Upper Snake Plain, but limited spatial extent of critical speeds does not warrant the introduction of low probabilities at this time. A return to at least locally elevated conditions will be possible D6-D8 across the Great Basin, and perhaps Pacific Northwest, as another upper-level trough and strengthening mid-level flow traverse the northwestern CONUS. Low critical probabilities may need to be introduced in future forecasts within these regions as details regarding more precise wind and RH thresholds emerge. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Increasing mid-level southwesterlies will accompany a north Pacific shortwave trough late this weekend from WA southward across ID. Until then, hot and dry conditions under a mid to upper-level ridge will continue to result in curing/drying of fuels from portions of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Southwest. Increasing westerly and southwesterly surface winds will develop ahead of and behind a dry cold front moving through WA and OR D3/Sunday. Low critical probabilities have been extended southward to include south-central OR and northwestern NV, where widespread RH of less than 15 percent will combine with 15-20 mph sustained wind speeds. Similar wind speeds, and slightly higher RH, are still anticipated across the Columbia Basin. Critical meteorological conditions appear likely across the Upper Snake Plain of ID D3. However, confidence in the introduction of higher critical probabilities within this region is low considering less receptive fuels. Very similar conditions will follow D4/Monday over the same area. Surface wind speeds will decrease across the Pacific Northwest, the majority of the Great Basin, and Southwest D5/Tuesday, as the mid to upper-level ridge amplifies again over the western CONUS. This decrease will be less noticeable across the Upper Snake Plain, but limited spatial extent of critical speeds does not warrant the introduction of low probabilities at this time. A return to at least locally elevated conditions will be possible D6-D8 across the Great Basin, and perhaps Pacific Northwest, as another upper-level trough and strengthening mid-level flow traverse the northwestern CONUS. Low critical probabilities may need to be introduced in future forecasts within these regions as details regarding more precise wind and RH thresholds emerge. ..Barnes.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more