Severe Storms

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-091340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-091340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-045-047-510-091340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-091340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-091340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-045-047-510-091340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT Read more

MD 1872 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 615... FOR SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1872 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Areas affected...southern Pennsylvania...northern Virginia...Maryland Concerning...Tornado Watch 615... Valid 090838Z - 091145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 615 continues. SUMMARY...The potential remains for brief tornadoes tonight, mainly from northern Virginia into southeast Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front well into PA, where low-level winds remain backed and are now gusting to 25-30 kt out of the southeast. Theta-e has increased with the passage of the warm front, with mid 70s F dewpoints and temperatures of 77-80 F. Meanwhile, area VWPS indicate that low-level shear remains quite favorable for brief tornadoes, with 0-1 km SRH values over 200 m2/s2. Recent radar trends indicate increasing storms just east of the low, where enhanced lift is interacting with the still warm and unstable air mass. Given current trends, growing showers could become supercells over the next several hours, with a tornado risk. In addition, other convection interacting with the warm front farther north may also attain rotation. As such, the tornado watch continues, and areas just north of the ongoing watch may need to be addressed later this morning as the air mass, and lift, remain favorable. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38397820 38567829 39137844 39757818 40327756 40887605 40807558 40537528 40177534 39427574 38677609 38307619 37967685 37967722 38287796 38397820 Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0616 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0616 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more