Severe Storms

MD 1502 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1502 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern MT/western ND Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493... Valid 010336Z - 010500Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail threat should shift across a part of east-central Montana before weakening in western North Dakota overnight. DISCUSSION...Strengthening of the low-level jet earlier this evening (the eastern periphery of which is sampled by the Bismarck VWP), yielded an increase in thunderstorm development along remnant outflow from decayed afternoon convection. Thus far, severe wind gusts up to 53 kts have been measured at Miles City, with golfball-sized hail reported in Treasure County, MT. Recently, the more intense updrafts have accelerated northeastward in east-central MT. This trend is expected to continue as MLCIN becomes more pronounced south of the I-94 corridor. The orientation of this evolution will result in storms encountering an increasingly more stable airmass in western ND. This should yield a diminishing trend to storms as they spread farther northeastward overnight. Until that time, isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible, mainly through about 06Z. ..Grams.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 47590599 48190480 48390391 48410310 48030270 47660296 47200341 46780515 46750577 47320626 47590599 Read more

WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W MLS TO 35 WSW GDV TO 15 ESE OLF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502. ..GRAMS..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-025-079-083-087-109-010540- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON FALLON PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROSEBUD WIBAUX NDC007-033-053-010540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS GOLDEN VALLEY MCKENZIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W MLS TO 35 WSW GDV TO 15 ESE OLF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502. ..GRAMS..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-025-079-083-087-109-010540- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON FALLON PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROSEBUD WIBAUX NDC007-033-053-010540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS GOLDEN VALLEY MCKENZIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0493 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0493 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DLN TO 25 NE WEY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501. ..GRAMS..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC057-010240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DLN TO 25 NE WEY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501. ..GRAMS..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC057-010240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DLN TO 25 NE WEY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501. ..GRAMS..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC057-010240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DLN TO 25 NE WEY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501. ..GRAMS..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC057-010240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DLN TO 25 NE WEY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501. ..GRAMS..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC057-010240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DLN TO 25 NE WEY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501. ..GRAMS..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC057-010240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 492 SEVERE TSTM MT 302135Z - 010200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest into Central Montana * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop over southwest Montana and move east-northeast into central Montana late this afternoon into the evening. A couple of supercells are possible initially with an attendant risk for large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter) and severe gusts. Upscale growth into a linear thunderstorm cluster is expected by early evening as storms move into the eastern parts of the Watch. Severe gusts 60-75 mph will be possible with this activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Bozeman MT to 50 miles north northeast of Billings MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 489...WW 490...WW 491... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Smith Read more

MD 1500 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARYLAND INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...EASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1500 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0710 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Maryland into southern New Jersey...Delaware...eastern Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491... Valid 010010Z - 010145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat may continue across the remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watches 489 and 491 for a few more hours. Strong to severe wind gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage are the main threats, though an instance or two of 1 inch diameter hail is also possible. DISCUSSION...Multicells and transient supercells are progressing across the Mid Atlantic toward the shoreline. These storms (particularly the supercells) have a history of strong to occasionally severe gusts, and they are progressing toward the corridor of maximum MLCAPE (2000 J/kg) that remains. As such, 50-65 mph wind gusts are still possible (along with an instance or two of 1 inch diameter hail) until the storms either move offshore, or diminish with nocturnal cooling. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 37617803 39367664 39627523 39427468 38887486 38107525 37477575 37217630 37207719 37617803 Read more

MD 1501 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492... FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1501 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...southern and eastern MT Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492... Valid 010014Z - 010145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing marginal/isolated severe threat should increase in intensity and perhaps coverage as cells shift northeastward into eastern Montana this evening. An additional severe thunderstorms watch may be needed to the east of WW 492. DISCUSSION...A single, but longer-lived discrete cell has steadily progressed northeastward across southwest to south-central MT, now northwest of Billings. This storm has seemingly struggled within the weak buoyancy and moderate MLCIN environment, despite ample southwesterly speed shear above 3-km AGL per Billings VWP data. Downstream over the western Dakotas into eastern MT, a southeasterly low-level jet is consistently progged to strengthen substantially over the next few hours. This will result in increasing forcing for ascent coupled with low-level moistening that should yield greater MLCAPE/diminishing MLCIN. It remains plausible that the convection northwest of Billings should intensify as this occurs. But given recent observational trends, confidence has lowered on the degree of convective coverage as depicted by afternoon guidance. Still, an increase in severe may occur at some point this evening and a downstream watch is being considered. ..Grams/Smith.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 45041306 45751096 46410966 47090878 48080773 48580676 48430556 47560500 46890497 46130774 44601283 45041306 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of wind damage will continue for a few more hours in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated large hail and severe/damaging winds remain possible this evening in parts of central/eastern Montana into perhaps far western North Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic... Convection has largely moved offshore, though scattered storms still remain across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Modest mid-level lapse rates and around 35-40 kts of effective shear (sampled by the 00Z IAD sounding) suggest damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will remain possible into at least the mid evening. ...Montana/western North Dakota... A mid-level trough continues to move across the northern Rockies. Convection continues to develop within the terrain areas of western Montana. Storms have generally struggled to maintain intensity, however. MLCIN remains present in eastern Montana and western North Dakota. The overall longevity of convection, as well as coverage, remains uncertain. An increase in the low-level jet this evening could help maintain some activity into the mid/late evening. Severe/damaging winds and isolated large hail are the main risks. ...Central High Plains Vicinity... Continued stronger flow across the Rockies around the upper-level ridge will continue to foster scattered strong to severe storms this evening. The strongest storms will likely be in parts of eastern Colorado where low 60s F dewpoints remain. Large hail and severe winds are possible with this activity. ...Arizona... Scattered storms have developed within an area of strong heating in southeastern Arizona. An MCV evident on visible satellite also has likely aided in convective development and modest organization this afternoon/evening. A few strong/severe wind gusts remain possible. Convection/outflow may try to push westward toward Phoenix where temperatures remain in the low 100s F. ..Wendt.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of wind damage will continue for a few more hours in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated large hail and severe/damaging winds remain possible this evening in parts of central/eastern Montana into perhaps far western North Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic... Convection has largely moved offshore, though scattered storms still remain across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Modest mid-level lapse rates and around 35-40 kts of effective shear (sampled by the 00Z IAD sounding) suggest damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will remain possible into at least the mid evening. ...Montana/western North Dakota... A mid-level trough continues to move across the northern Rockies. Convection continues to develop within the terrain areas of western Montana. Storms have generally struggled to maintain intensity, however. MLCIN remains present in eastern Montana and western North Dakota. The overall longevity of convection, as well as coverage, remains uncertain. An increase in the low-level jet this evening could help maintain some activity into the mid/late evening. Severe/damaging winds and isolated large hail are the main risks. ...Central High Plains Vicinity... Continued stronger flow across the Rockies around the upper-level ridge will continue to foster scattered strong to severe storms this evening. The strongest storms will likely be in parts of eastern Colorado where low 60s F dewpoints remain. Large hail and severe winds are possible with this activity. ...Arizona... Scattered storms have developed within an area of strong heating in southeastern Arizona. An MCV evident on visible satellite also has likely aided in convective development and modest organization this afternoon/evening. A few strong/severe wind gusts remain possible. Convection/outflow may try to push westward toward Phoenix where temperatures remain in the low 100s F. ..Wendt.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of wind damage will continue for a few more hours in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated large hail and severe/damaging winds remain possible this evening in parts of central/eastern Montana into perhaps far western North Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic... Convection has largely moved offshore, though scattered storms still remain across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Modest mid-level lapse rates and around 35-40 kts of effective shear (sampled by the 00Z IAD sounding) suggest damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will remain possible into at least the mid evening. ...Montana/western North Dakota... A mid-level trough continues to move across the northern Rockies. Convection continues to develop within the terrain areas of western Montana. Storms have generally struggled to maintain intensity, however. MLCIN remains present in eastern Montana and western North Dakota. The overall longevity of convection, as well as coverage, remains uncertain. An increase in the low-level jet this evening could help maintain some activity into the mid/late evening. Severe/damaging winds and isolated large hail are the main risks. ...Central High Plains Vicinity... Continued stronger flow across the Rockies around the upper-level ridge will continue to foster scattered strong to severe storms this evening. The strongest storms will likely be in parts of eastern Colorado where low 60s F dewpoints remain. Large hail and severe winds are possible with this activity. ...Arizona... Scattered storms have developed within an area of strong heating in southeastern Arizona. An MCV evident on visible satellite also has likely aided in convective development and modest organization this afternoon/evening. A few strong/severe wind gusts remain possible. Convection/outflow may try to push westward toward Phoenix where temperatures remain in the low 100s F. ..Wendt.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of wind damage will continue for a few more hours in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated large hail and severe/damaging winds remain possible this evening in parts of central/eastern Montana into perhaps far western North Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic... Convection has largely moved offshore, though scattered storms still remain across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Modest mid-level lapse rates and around 35-40 kts of effective shear (sampled by the 00Z IAD sounding) suggest damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will remain possible into at least the mid evening. ...Montana/western North Dakota... A mid-level trough continues to move across the northern Rockies. Convection continues to develop within the terrain areas of western Montana. Storms have generally struggled to maintain intensity, however. MLCIN remains present in eastern Montana and western North Dakota. The overall longevity of convection, as well as coverage, remains uncertain. An increase in the low-level jet this evening could help maintain some activity into the mid/late evening. Severe/damaging winds and isolated large hail are the main risks. ...Central High Plains Vicinity... Continued stronger flow across the Rockies around the upper-level ridge will continue to foster scattered strong to severe storms this evening. The strongest storms will likely be in parts of eastern Colorado where low 60s F dewpoints remain. Large hail and severe winds are possible with this activity. ...Arizona... Scattered storms have developed within an area of strong heating in southeastern Arizona. An MCV evident on visible satellite also has likely aided in convective development and modest organization this afternoon/evening. A few strong/severe wind gusts remain possible. Convection/outflow may try to push westward toward Phoenix where temperatures remain in the low 100s F. ..Wendt.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of wind damage will continue for a few more hours in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated large hail and severe/damaging winds remain possible this evening in parts of central/eastern Montana into perhaps far western North Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic... Convection has largely moved offshore, though scattered storms still remain across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Modest mid-level lapse rates and around 35-40 kts of effective shear (sampled by the 00Z IAD sounding) suggest damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will remain possible into at least the mid evening. ...Montana/western North Dakota... A mid-level trough continues to move across the northern Rockies. Convection continues to develop within the terrain areas of western Montana. Storms have generally struggled to maintain intensity, however. MLCIN remains present in eastern Montana and western North Dakota. The overall longevity of convection, as well as coverage, remains uncertain. An increase in the low-level jet this evening could help maintain some activity into the mid/late evening. Severe/damaging winds and isolated large hail are the main risks. ...Central High Plains Vicinity... Continued stronger flow across the Rockies around the upper-level ridge will continue to foster scattered strong to severe storms this evening. The strongest storms will likely be in parts of eastern Colorado where low 60s F dewpoints remain. Large hail and severe winds are possible with this activity. ...Arizona... Scattered storms have developed within an area of strong heating in southeastern Arizona. An MCV evident on visible satellite also has likely aided in convective development and modest organization this afternoon/evening. A few strong/severe wind gusts remain possible. Convection/outflow may try to push westward toward Phoenix where temperatures remain in the low 100s F. ..Wendt.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of wind damage will continue for a few more hours in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated large hail and severe/damaging winds remain possible this evening in parts of central/eastern Montana into perhaps far western North Dakota. ...Mid-Atlantic... Convection has largely moved offshore, though scattered storms still remain across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Modest mid-level lapse rates and around 35-40 kts of effective shear (sampled by the 00Z IAD sounding) suggest damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will remain possible into at least the mid evening. ...Montana/western North Dakota... A mid-level trough continues to move across the northern Rockies. Convection continues to develop within the terrain areas of western Montana. Storms have generally struggled to maintain intensity, however. MLCIN remains present in eastern Montana and western North Dakota. The overall longevity of convection, as well as coverage, remains uncertain. An increase in the low-level jet this evening could help maintain some activity into the mid/late evening. Severe/damaging winds and isolated large hail are the main risks. ...Central High Plains Vicinity... Continued stronger flow across the Rockies around the upper-level ridge will continue to foster scattered strong to severe storms this evening. The strongest storms will likely be in parts of eastern Colorado where low 60s F dewpoints remain. Large hail and severe winds are possible with this activity. ...Arizona... Scattered storms have developed within an area of strong heating in southeastern Arizona. An MCV evident on visible satellite also has likely aided in convective development and modest organization this afternoon/evening. A few strong/severe wind gusts remain possible. Convection/outflow may try to push westward toward Phoenix where temperatures remain in the low 100s F. ..Wendt.. 07/01/2024 Read more