Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z High pressure over the central US will intensify this week as troughing over the west does likewise. As the troughing deepens, mid-level moisture will move northward supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Northwest through the remainder of the week. Dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions are likely. Hot, dry and windy conditions are also possible over the southern/eastern Great Basin through midweek as flow aloft intensifies. ...Northwest... As western US troughing continues to deepen, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Northwest through the remainder of the work week. Isolated storms are possible overnight D2/Tuesday into D3/Wednesday from northern CA and southern OR into western ID. Storm coverage should increase across along and east of the Cascades into WA D3/Wednesday as moisture lifts north with a stronger shortwave trough. Less antecedent precipitation and the dry inverted-v profiles should support dry thunderstorms with the potential for lightning ignitions. Some risk for isolated thunderstorms may also develop west of the Cascades, though confidence is lower here. As troughing continues to deepen through the end of the week, onshore flow will result in greater moisture content across the Northwest D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase to over an inch on a widespread basis. This will likely transition storms to a wetter mode with only occasional drier strikes. Still, some lightning threat should continue into the weekend mainly across WA and OR, though details on coverage remain unclear. ...Southern/eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope through the end of the week. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week as the dry and breezy conditions may overlap with dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jul 28 22:04:13 UTC 2025.

MD 1824 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1824 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Areas affected...parts of south central and southeastern South Dakota...adjacent north central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281947Z - 282145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered, intensifying thunderstorm development, posing a risk for a few strong downbursts and perhaps some hail, appears possible by 4-6 PM CDT. Timing of a potential severe weather watch issuance remains unclear, but trends are being monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...A surface cold front, now advancing south of Pierre, Philip and Rapid City is becoming better defined, with strengthening differential heating along and ahead of it, centered near the western South Dakota/Nebraska state border northeastward across the Winner toward Huron vicinities. While temperatures are approaching 100 F within the corridor of stronger boundary-layer heating, surface dew points have been slower to mix below 70F, and through the 60s F, than suggested by model forecast soundings at Winner and Valentine. Even so, latest objective analysis suggests that the pre- and post-cold frontal boundary layer remains strongly capped beneath the warm and elevated mixed-layer air as far north as the North/South Dakota state border vicinity. Mid/upper support for sustained boundary-layer based convection anytime soon remains unclear, although it appears possible that a subtle perturbation progressing across and east-northeast of the Black Hills is contributing to ongoing attempts at convective development. It appears more probable that with further insolation, continued heating and deeper mixing within the pre-frontal boundary-layer may eventually support intensifying, high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, this activity could pose a risk for severe hail and increasing potential for strong downbursts into early evening. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43370091 44049966 44449790 43689659 43239776 42699886 42500075 43370091 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0552 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0552 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0552 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0552 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0552 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0552 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was removing the Slight risk area across parts of the northern High Plains -- where the severe risk has decreased behind an earlier cluster of storms. Elsewhere, the previous forecast thinking remains the same. Thunderstorms are evolving across the higher terrain in western MT, and will track eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass this afternoon. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551 and MCD 1823 for details. Farther east, thunderstorms are developing along a baroclinic zone extending across SD. These storms will pose a risk of severe downbursts as they develop into a hot/deeply mixed air mass in south-central SD and north-central NE this afternoon (see MCD 1824). This activity, and potentially new development along the baroclinic zone, should eventually spread eastward into eastern SD -- where intensification into one or more organized/intense clusters is still expected into tonight. ..Weinman.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was removing the Slight risk area across parts of the northern High Plains -- where the severe risk has decreased behind an earlier cluster of storms. Elsewhere, the previous forecast thinking remains the same. Thunderstorms are evolving across the higher terrain in western MT, and will track eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass this afternoon. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551 and MCD 1823 for details. Farther east, thunderstorms are developing along a baroclinic zone extending across SD. These storms will pose a risk of severe downbursts as they develop into a hot/deeply mixed air mass in south-central SD and north-central NE this afternoon (see MCD 1824). This activity, and potentially new development along the baroclinic zone, should eventually spread eastward into eastern SD -- where intensification into one or more organized/intense clusters is still expected into tonight. ..Weinman.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was removing the Slight risk area across parts of the northern High Plains -- where the severe risk has decreased behind an earlier cluster of storms. Elsewhere, the previous forecast thinking remains the same. Thunderstorms are evolving across the higher terrain in western MT, and will track eastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass this afternoon. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551 and MCD 1823 for details. Farther east, thunderstorms are developing along a baroclinic zone extending across SD. These storms will pose a risk of severe downbursts as they develop into a hot/deeply mixed air mass in south-central SD and north-central NE this afternoon (see MCD 1824). This activity, and potentially new development along the baroclinic zone, should eventually spread eastward into eastern SD -- where intensification into one or more organized/intense clusters is still expected into tonight. ..Weinman.. 07/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025/ ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. Read more