Severe Storms

WW 0552 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 552 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S ANW TO 35 W HON TO 30 NE BKX. ..BROYLES..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...FSD...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 552 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-017-089-103-149-290240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN HOLT KEYA PAHA ROCK SDC003-005-009-011-015-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-073-077-079- 083-087-097-099-101-111-125-127-135-290240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME BROOKINGS BRULE CHARLES MIX CLAY DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON HUTCHINSON JERAULD KINGSBURY LAKE LINCOLN MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY SANBORN TURNER UNION YANKTON Read more

WW 0552 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 552 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S ANW TO 35 W HON TO 30 NE BKX. ..BROYLES..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...FSD...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 552 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-017-089-103-149-290240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN HOLT KEYA PAHA ROCK SDC003-005-009-011-015-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-073-077-079- 083-087-097-099-101-111-125-127-135-290240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME BROOKINGS BRULE CHARLES MIX CLAY DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON HUTCHINSON JERAULD KINGSBURY LAKE LINCOLN MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY SANBORN TURNER UNION YANKTON Read more

WW 0552 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 552 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S ANW TO 35 W HON TO 30 NE BKX. ..BROYLES..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...FSD...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 552 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-017-089-103-149-290240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN HOLT KEYA PAHA ROCK SDC003-005-009-011-015-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-073-077-079- 083-087-097-099-101-111-125-127-135-290240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME BROOKINGS BRULE CHARLES MIX CLAY DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON HUTCHINSON JERAULD KINGSBURY LAKE LINCOLN MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY SANBORN TURNER UNION YANKTON Read more

WW 0552 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 552 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S ANW TO 35 W HON TO 30 NE BKX. ..BROYLES..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...FSD...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 552 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-017-089-103-149-290240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN HOLT KEYA PAHA ROCK SDC003-005-009-011-015-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-073-077-079- 083-087-097-099-101-111-125-127-135-290240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME BROOKINGS BRULE CHARLES MIX CLAY DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON HUTCHINSON JERAULD KINGSBURY LAKE LINCOLN MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY SANBORN TURNER UNION YANKTON Read more

WW 0552 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 552 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S ANW TO 35 W HON TO 30 NE BKX. ..BROYLES..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...FSD...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 552 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-017-089-103-149-290240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN HOLT KEYA PAHA ROCK SDC003-005-009-011-015-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-073-077-079- 083-087-097-099-101-111-125-127-135-290240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME BROOKINGS BRULE CHARLES MIX CLAY DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON HUTCHINSON JERAULD KINGSBURY LAKE LINCOLN MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY SANBORN TURNER UNION YANKTON Read more

WW 0552 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 552 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S ANW TO 35 W HON TO 30 NE BKX. ..BROYLES..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...FSD...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 552 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC015-017-089-103-149-290240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD BROWN HOLT KEYA PAHA ROCK SDC003-005-009-011-015-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-073-077-079- 083-087-097-099-101-111-125-127-135-290240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME BROOKINGS BRULE CHARLES MIX CLAY DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON HUTCHINSON JERAULD KINGSBURY LAKE LINCOLN MCCOOK MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY SANBORN TURNER UNION YANKTON Read more

WW 552 SEVERE TSTM MN NE SD 282045Z - 290300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 552 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme west central Minnesota Northern Nebraska Central and eastern South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initial severe storm development is underway across south central South Dakota, where supercells with isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter will be possible, as well as an isolated tornado or two with storms near the front closer to Huron. Eventual upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected, with an increasing threat for swaths of damaging winds (potentially up to 80-90 mph) with any bowing segments. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Valentine NE to 20 miles southeast of Brookings SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 551... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0553 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 553 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE BKX TO 25 SSE BRD. ..BROYLES..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 553 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC003-009-015-019-023-025-037-053-059-065-067-085-093-095-103- 123-127-129-139-141-143-145-163-171-173-290240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA BENTON BROWN CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO DAKOTA HENNEPIN ISANTI KANABEC KANDIYOHI MCLEOD MEEKER MILLE LACS NICOLLET RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEARNS WASHINGTON WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0553 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 553 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE BKX TO 25 SSE BRD. ..BROYLES..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 553 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC003-009-015-019-023-025-037-053-059-065-067-085-093-095-103- 123-127-129-139-141-143-145-163-171-173-290240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA BENTON BROWN CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO DAKOTA HENNEPIN ISANTI KANABEC KANDIYOHI MCLEOD MEEKER MILLE LACS NICOLLET RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEARNS WASHINGTON WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0554 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 554 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 554 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-133-141-143-149-167-193-290240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-290240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK NEC003-021-027-039-043-051-107-119-139-167-173-179-290240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0554 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 554 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 554 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-133-141-143-149-167-193-290240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-290240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK NEC003-021-027-039-043-051-107-119-139-167-173-179-290240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 3HT TO 15 ENE 3HT TO 80 SW GGW. ..SQUITIERI..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC033-037-065-069-071-087-103-111-290240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS ROSEBUD TREASURE YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 3HT TO 15 ENE 3HT TO 80 SW GGW. ..SQUITIERI..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC033-037-065-069-071-087-103-111-290240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS ROSEBUD TREASURE YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 3HT TO 15 ENE 3HT TO 80 SW GGW. ..SQUITIERI..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC033-037-065-069-071-087-103-111-290240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS ROSEBUD TREASURE YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 3HT TO 15 ENE 3HT TO 80 SW GGW. ..SQUITIERI..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC033-037-065-069-071-087-103-111-290240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS ROSEBUD TREASURE YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 3HT TO 15 ENE 3HT TO 80 SW GGW. ..SQUITIERI..07/29/25 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 551 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC033-037-065-069-071-087-103-111-290240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS ROSEBUD TREASURE YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 551 SEVERE TSTM MT 281915Z - 290300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 551 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Montana * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, including the potential for a few supercells. Large hail of 1-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible, while severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible with upscale growth into a cluster or two this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Helena MT to 75 miles east of Lewistown MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 550... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of significant damaging winds remains possible from southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Sporadic large hail or an isolated tornado may also occur. ...SD...MN...NE...IA... Scattered severe storms persist this evening from far northern NE across eastern SD and into west-central MN. A complex mixture of storm modes currently exists, but latest trends indicate a larger-scale damaging wind risk may be evolving. Previously tornadic supercells over SD are now moving generally eastward along the SD/NE border, with additional cells filling in into northeast SD and western MN. Of particular concern are storms west through southwest of the Sioux Falls area. If these can congeal further with a more consolidated outflow, the very moist and unstable air mass may support significant damaging gusts downstream into northern IA and southern MN later this evening/tonight. The line of storms currently over west-central MN is also becoming better organized, with strong deep-layer mean winds across this region. This may counteract the lesser instability values over this area and toward the MS River later this evening. Finally, it is unclear how far south the southern fringe of the severe wind risk may be. The OAX 00Z sounding remains very unstable, with a surmountable warm nose given an organized convective system. As such, severe probabilities were nudged a bit farther south. ...MT... A complex of thunderstorms is moving east across central MT, with areas of severe hail and wind indicated on radar. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates aloft are allowing for a few longer-lived cells with hail. Capping will be slow to materialize this evening given the moist low-level air mass, and as such a few severe storms may be possible into east-central MT. ..Jewell.. 07/29/2025 Read more