Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OHIO AND PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Friday across much of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will deepen on Friday as it moves from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. The primary speed max will dive southeastward across MN/IA during the day and round the base of the trough into IL, IN, OH and toward Lake Erie into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, modest upper ridging will exist across the West with weak flow. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from near Lake Erie southwestward toward the OH Valley during the afternoon with a surface low developing from Lake Ontario into far southwest Quebec late. Otherwise, the pre-frontal trough will be relatively weak during the day. ...OH and Vicinity... Daytime heating will lead to steepening lapse rates, with a plume of 60s F dewpoints likely east of the cold front. Forecast soundings show in excess of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. While low-level lapse rates will become steep, most of the cooling aloft will be post frontal, and not contribute appreciably to destabilization across the warm sector. Increasing frontal ascent into the uncapped air mass will lead to scattered storms after about 18Z, from far western NY into parts of KY. The most favorable combination of instability and wind profiles appears to be over OH, with sufficiently long hodographs to support hail in some of the storms. Cellular storm mode is expected early, with the undercutting cold front supporting a transition to linear. As such, marginal hail and then wind gusts will be possible through about 02Z, when storms are expected to dissipate with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OHIO AND PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Friday across much of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will deepen on Friday as it moves from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. The primary speed max will dive southeastward across MN/IA during the day and round the base of the trough into IL, IN, OH and toward Lake Erie into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, modest upper ridging will exist across the West with weak flow. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from near Lake Erie southwestward toward the OH Valley during the afternoon with a surface low developing from Lake Ontario into far southwest Quebec late. Otherwise, the pre-frontal trough will be relatively weak during the day. ...OH and Vicinity... Daytime heating will lead to steepening lapse rates, with a plume of 60s F dewpoints likely east of the cold front. Forecast soundings show in excess of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. While low-level lapse rates will become steep, most of the cooling aloft will be post frontal, and not contribute appreciably to destabilization across the warm sector. Increasing frontal ascent into the uncapped air mass will lead to scattered storms after about 18Z, from far western NY into parts of KY. The most favorable combination of instability and wind profiles appears to be over OH, with sufficiently long hodographs to support hail in some of the storms. Cellular storm mode is expected early, with the undercutting cold front supporting a transition to linear. As such, marginal hail and then wind gusts will be possible through about 02Z, when storms are expected to dissipate with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OHIO AND PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Friday across much of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will deepen on Friday as it moves from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. The primary speed max will dive southeastward across MN/IA during the day and round the base of the trough into IL, IN, OH and toward Lake Erie into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, modest upper ridging will exist across the West with weak flow. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from near Lake Erie southwestward toward the OH Valley during the afternoon with a surface low developing from Lake Ontario into far southwest Quebec late. Otherwise, the pre-frontal trough will be relatively weak during the day. ...OH and Vicinity... Daytime heating will lead to steepening lapse rates, with a plume of 60s F dewpoints likely east of the cold front. Forecast soundings show in excess of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. While low-level lapse rates will become steep, most of the cooling aloft will be post frontal, and not contribute appreciably to destabilization across the warm sector. Increasing frontal ascent into the uncapped air mass will lead to scattered storms after about 18Z, from far western NY into parts of KY. The most favorable combination of instability and wind profiles appears to be over OH, with sufficiently long hodographs to support hail in some of the storms. Cellular storm mode is expected early, with the undercutting cold front supporting a transition to linear. As such, marginal hail and then wind gusts will be possible through about 02Z, when storms are expected to dissipate with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OHIO AND PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Friday across much of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will deepen on Friday as it moves from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. The primary speed max will dive southeastward across MN/IA during the day and round the base of the trough into IL, IN, OH and toward Lake Erie into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, modest upper ridging will exist across the West with weak flow. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from near Lake Erie southwestward toward the OH Valley during the afternoon with a surface low developing from Lake Ontario into far southwest Quebec late. Otherwise, the pre-frontal trough will be relatively weak during the day. ...OH and Vicinity... Daytime heating will lead to steepening lapse rates, with a plume of 60s F dewpoints likely east of the cold front. Forecast soundings show in excess of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. While low-level lapse rates will become steep, most of the cooling aloft will be post frontal, and not contribute appreciably to destabilization across the warm sector. Increasing frontal ascent into the uncapped air mass will lead to scattered storms after about 18Z, from far western NY into parts of KY. The most favorable combination of instability and wind profiles appears to be over OH, with sufficiently long hodographs to support hail in some of the storms. Cellular storm mode is expected early, with the undercutting cold front supporting a transition to linear. As such, marginal hail and then wind gusts will be possible through about 02Z, when storms are expected to dissipate with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OHIO AND PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Friday across much of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will deepen on Friday as it moves from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. The primary speed max will dive southeastward across MN/IA during the day and round the base of the trough into IL, IN, OH and toward Lake Erie into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, modest upper ridging will exist across the West with weak flow. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from near Lake Erie southwestward toward the OH Valley during the afternoon with a surface low developing from Lake Ontario into far southwest Quebec late. Otherwise, the pre-frontal trough will be relatively weak during the day. ...OH and Vicinity... Daytime heating will lead to steepening lapse rates, with a plume of 60s F dewpoints likely east of the cold front. Forecast soundings show in excess of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. While low-level lapse rates will become steep, most of the cooling aloft will be post frontal, and not contribute appreciably to destabilization across the warm sector. Increasing frontal ascent into the uncapped air mass will lead to scattered storms after about 18Z, from far western NY into parts of KY. The most favorable combination of instability and wind profiles appears to be over OH, with sufficiently long hodographs to support hail in some of the storms. Cellular storm mode is expected early, with the undercutting cold front supporting a transition to linear. As such, marginal hail and then wind gusts will be possible through about 02Z, when storms are expected to dissipate with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. 05 UTC surface observations show a cold front slowly migrating south across the Plains and the upper MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the southern Plains by evening as surface high pressure builds across the northern CONUS. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, but an influx of cooler air combined with cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms limits fire weather concerns. Across the West, an upper ridge currently over the region will linger through the next 24 hours. This will promote mostly clear skies and dry conditions for the afternoon with RH values in the teens and low 20s common. Surface winds will remain relatively benign with the exception of mountainous areas of southern CA, the northern Cascades, and parts of central to southern UT. Any fire weather concerns across these regions should remain sufficiently localized to preclude the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. 05 UTC surface observations show a cold front slowly migrating south across the Plains and the upper MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the southern Plains by evening as surface high pressure builds across the northern CONUS. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, but an influx of cooler air combined with cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms limits fire weather concerns. Across the West, an upper ridge currently over the region will linger through the next 24 hours. This will promote mostly clear skies and dry conditions for the afternoon with RH values in the teens and low 20s common. Surface winds will remain relatively benign with the exception of mountainous areas of southern CA, the northern Cascades, and parts of central to southern UT. Any fire weather concerns across these regions should remain sufficiently localized to preclude the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. 05 UTC surface observations show a cold front slowly migrating south across the Plains and the upper MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the southern Plains by evening as surface high pressure builds across the northern CONUS. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, but an influx of cooler air combined with cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms limits fire weather concerns. Across the West, an upper ridge currently over the region will linger through the next 24 hours. This will promote mostly clear skies and dry conditions for the afternoon with RH values in the teens and low 20s common. Surface winds will remain relatively benign with the exception of mountainous areas of southern CA, the northern Cascades, and parts of central to southern UT. Any fire weather concerns across these regions should remain sufficiently localized to preclude the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. 05 UTC surface observations show a cold front slowly migrating south across the Plains and the upper MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the southern Plains by evening as surface high pressure builds across the northern CONUS. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, but an influx of cooler air combined with cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms limits fire weather concerns. Across the West, an upper ridge currently over the region will linger through the next 24 hours. This will promote mostly clear skies and dry conditions for the afternoon with RH values in the teens and low 20s common. Surface winds will remain relatively benign with the exception of mountainous areas of southern CA, the northern Cascades, and parts of central to southern UT. Any fire weather concerns across these regions should remain sufficiently localized to preclude the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. 05 UTC surface observations show a cold front slowly migrating south across the Plains and the upper MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the southern Plains by evening as surface high pressure builds across the northern CONUS. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, but an influx of cooler air combined with cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms limits fire weather concerns. Across the West, an upper ridge currently over the region will linger through the next 24 hours. This will promote mostly clear skies and dry conditions for the afternoon with RH values in the teens and low 20s common. Surface winds will remain relatively benign with the exception of mountainous areas of southern CA, the northern Cascades, and parts of central to southern UT. Any fire weather concerns across these regions should remain sufficiently localized to preclude the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. 05 UTC surface observations show a cold front slowly migrating south across the Plains and the upper MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the southern Plains by evening as surface high pressure builds across the northern CONUS. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, but an influx of cooler air combined with cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms limits fire weather concerns. Across the West, an upper ridge currently over the region will linger through the next 24 hours. This will promote mostly clear skies and dry conditions for the afternoon with RH values in the teens and low 20s common. Surface winds will remain relatively benign with the exception of mountainous areas of southern CA, the northern Cascades, and parts of central to southern UT. Any fire weather concerns across these regions should remain sufficiently localized to preclude the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. 05 UTC surface observations show a cold front slowly migrating south across the Plains and the upper MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the southern Plains by evening as surface high pressure builds across the northern CONUS. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, but an influx of cooler air combined with cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms limits fire weather concerns. Across the West, an upper ridge currently over the region will linger through the next 24 hours. This will promote mostly clear skies and dry conditions for the afternoon with RH values in the teens and low 20s common. Surface winds will remain relatively benign with the exception of mountainous areas of southern CA, the northern Cascades, and parts of central to southern UT. Any fire weather concerns across these regions should remain sufficiently localized to preclude the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. 05 UTC surface observations show a cold front slowly migrating south across the Plains and the upper MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the southern Plains by evening as surface high pressure builds across the northern CONUS. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, but an influx of cooler air combined with cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms limits fire weather concerns. Across the West, an upper ridge currently over the region will linger through the next 24 hours. This will promote mostly clear skies and dry conditions for the afternoon with RH values in the teens and low 20s common. Surface winds will remain relatively benign with the exception of mountainous areas of southern CA, the northern Cascades, and parts of central to southern UT. Any fire weather concerns across these regions should remain sufficiently localized to preclude the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. 05 UTC surface observations show a cold front slowly migrating south across the Plains and the upper MS River Valley. This front is expected to reach the southern Plains by evening as surface high pressure builds across the northern CONUS. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, but an influx of cooler air combined with cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms limits fire weather concerns. Across the West, an upper ridge currently over the region will linger through the next 24 hours. This will promote mostly clear skies and dry conditions for the afternoon with RH values in the teens and low 20s common. Surface winds will remain relatively benign with the exception of mountainous areas of southern CA, the northern Cascades, and parts of central to southern UT. Any fire weather concerns across these regions should remain sufficiently localized to preclude the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 09/05/2024 Read more