Severe Storms

MD 2048 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 2048 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Areas affected...northeast New Mexico and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051848Z - 052045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon across northeast New Mexico. DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms developed this morning and have continued into the early afternoon ahead of the southward moving mid-level shortwave trough across Colorado. These storms have been sub-severe thus far with a maximum wind gust of 38 knots measured at Taos, NM. However, surface heating is destabilizing the airmass ahead of this storm activity and inhibition is forecast to eventually erode. Once this occurs, more robust convection is anticipated with the potential for some multicell/occasional supercell structures. Through time, these storms may congeal into one or more clusters with an increasing threat for sporadic severe wind gusts into the early evening. Any severe-weather threat which does materialize should subside near sunset as the boundary layer cools and inhibition increases. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... LAT...LON 36500575 36970490 36940399 35760341 34950326 34370341 34010389 34150469 34350511 35260559 36090596 36500575 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor adjustments were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area along the Oregon Coast in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for Friday across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into southwest OR. Recent water-vapor imagery reveals a weak upper disturbance over the eastern Pacific on the fringe of the upper ridge over the western U.S. This feature is expected to drift east/northeast over the next 48 hours, reaching northern CA/southern OR by late afternoon/evening Friday. As this occurs, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent-driven mid-level cooling over the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades should support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Recent forecast soundings suggest that boundary layer conditions will be sufficiently dry for dry lightning strikes, which will pose a fire weather concern given the dry fuels over the region (ERCs generally at or above the 80th percentile). Thunderstorms will be most likely along and to the lee side of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades where orographic ascent will aid in convective initiation. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible (and will most likely occur within the dry-thunderstorm risk area, but ensemble confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions is somewhat limited (around 30-40% probability for sustained elevated conditions based on latest ensemble guidance). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor adjustments were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area along the Oregon Coast in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for Friday across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into southwest OR. Recent water-vapor imagery reveals a weak upper disturbance over the eastern Pacific on the fringe of the upper ridge over the western U.S. This feature is expected to drift east/northeast over the next 48 hours, reaching northern CA/southern OR by late afternoon/evening Friday. As this occurs, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent-driven mid-level cooling over the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades should support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Recent forecast soundings suggest that boundary layer conditions will be sufficiently dry for dry lightning strikes, which will pose a fire weather concern given the dry fuels over the region (ERCs generally at or above the 80th percentile). Thunderstorms will be most likely along and to the lee side of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades where orographic ascent will aid in convective initiation. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible (and will most likely occur within the dry-thunderstorm risk area, but ensemble confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions is somewhat limited (around 30-40% probability for sustained elevated conditions based on latest ensemble guidance). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor adjustments were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area along the Oregon Coast in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for Friday across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into southwest OR. Recent water-vapor imagery reveals a weak upper disturbance over the eastern Pacific on the fringe of the upper ridge over the western U.S. This feature is expected to drift east/northeast over the next 48 hours, reaching northern CA/southern OR by late afternoon/evening Friday. As this occurs, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent-driven mid-level cooling over the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades should support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Recent forecast soundings suggest that boundary layer conditions will be sufficiently dry for dry lightning strikes, which will pose a fire weather concern given the dry fuels over the region (ERCs generally at or above the 80th percentile). Thunderstorms will be most likely along and to the lee side of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades where orographic ascent will aid in convective initiation. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible (and will most likely occur within the dry-thunderstorm risk area, but ensemble confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions is somewhat limited (around 30-40% probability for sustained elevated conditions based on latest ensemble guidance). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor adjustments were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area along the Oregon Coast in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for Friday across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into southwest OR. Recent water-vapor imagery reveals a weak upper disturbance over the eastern Pacific on the fringe of the upper ridge over the western U.S. This feature is expected to drift east/northeast over the next 48 hours, reaching northern CA/southern OR by late afternoon/evening Friday. As this occurs, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent-driven mid-level cooling over the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades should support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Recent forecast soundings suggest that boundary layer conditions will be sufficiently dry for dry lightning strikes, which will pose a fire weather concern given the dry fuels over the region (ERCs generally at or above the 80th percentile). Thunderstorms will be most likely along and to the lee side of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades where orographic ascent will aid in convective initiation. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible (and will most likely occur within the dry-thunderstorm risk area, but ensemble confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions is somewhat limited (around 30-40% probability for sustained elevated conditions based on latest ensemble guidance). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor adjustments were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area along the Oregon Coast in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for Friday across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into southwest OR. Recent water-vapor imagery reveals a weak upper disturbance over the eastern Pacific on the fringe of the upper ridge over the western U.S. This feature is expected to drift east/northeast over the next 48 hours, reaching northern CA/southern OR by late afternoon/evening Friday. As this occurs, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent-driven mid-level cooling over the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades should support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Recent forecast soundings suggest that boundary layer conditions will be sufficiently dry for dry lightning strikes, which will pose a fire weather concern given the dry fuels over the region (ERCs generally at or above the 80th percentile). Thunderstorms will be most likely along and to the lee side of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades where orographic ascent will aid in convective initiation. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible (and will most likely occur within the dry-thunderstorm risk area, but ensemble confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions is somewhat limited (around 30-40% probability for sustained elevated conditions based on latest ensemble guidance). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor adjustments were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area along the Oregon Coast in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for Friday across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into southwest OR. Recent water-vapor imagery reveals a weak upper disturbance over the eastern Pacific on the fringe of the upper ridge over the western U.S. This feature is expected to drift east/northeast over the next 48 hours, reaching northern CA/southern OR by late afternoon/evening Friday. As this occurs, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent-driven mid-level cooling over the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades should support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Recent forecast soundings suggest that boundary layer conditions will be sufficiently dry for dry lightning strikes, which will pose a fire weather concern given the dry fuels over the region (ERCs generally at or above the 80th percentile). Thunderstorms will be most likely along and to the lee side of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades where orographic ascent will aid in convective initiation. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible (and will most likely occur within the dry-thunderstorm risk area, but ensemble confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions is somewhat limited (around 30-40% probability for sustained elevated conditions based on latest ensemble guidance). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor adjustments were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area along the Oregon Coast in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for Friday across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into southwest OR. Recent water-vapor imagery reveals a weak upper disturbance over the eastern Pacific on the fringe of the upper ridge over the western U.S. This feature is expected to drift east/northeast over the next 48 hours, reaching northern CA/southern OR by late afternoon/evening Friday. As this occurs, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent-driven mid-level cooling over the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades should support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Recent forecast soundings suggest that boundary layer conditions will be sufficiently dry for dry lightning strikes, which will pose a fire weather concern given the dry fuels over the region (ERCs generally at or above the 80th percentile). Thunderstorms will be most likely along and to the lee side of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades where orographic ascent will aid in convective initiation. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible (and will most likely occur within the dry-thunderstorm risk area, but ensemble confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions is somewhat limited (around 30-40% probability for sustained elevated conditions based on latest ensemble guidance). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor adjustments were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area along the Oregon Coast in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for Friday across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into southwest OR. Recent water-vapor imagery reveals a weak upper disturbance over the eastern Pacific on the fringe of the upper ridge over the western U.S. This feature is expected to drift east/northeast over the next 48 hours, reaching northern CA/southern OR by late afternoon/evening Friday. As this occurs, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent-driven mid-level cooling over the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades should support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Recent forecast soundings suggest that boundary layer conditions will be sufficiently dry for dry lightning strikes, which will pose a fire weather concern given the dry fuels over the region (ERCs generally at or above the 80th percentile). Thunderstorms will be most likely along and to the lee side of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades where orographic ascent will aid in convective initiation. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible (and will most likely occur within the dry-thunderstorm risk area, but ensemble confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions is somewhat limited (around 30-40% probability for sustained elevated conditions based on latest ensemble guidance). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the USA on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will exist over the Great Lakes, and will slowly move into the Northeast while deepening. Low pressure will shift northward across western Quebec, with a cold front trailing south into the Mid Atlantic region. Behind this system, high pressure will exist into the Plains and MS Valley. Although winds aloft will increase over the Northeast as the upper low nears, low-level wind speeds, when combined with expected instability levels, do not appear to warrant severe probabilities. ...Northeast... A band of showers and a few thunderstorms is forecast to move east across NY and PA during the day, and into New England after about 00Z. Forecast soundings ahead of the cold front depict minimal instability as high temperatures only reach the upper 60s F to lower 70s F in many areas. In addition, wind speeds in the lowest few km AGL will not be particularly strong either, with less than 30 kt at 850 mb. Therefore, the combination of a relatively shallow/cool boundary layer, combined with modest wind speeds, and lack of appreciable instability, all suggest severe weather is unlikely. ..Jewell.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the USA on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will exist over the Great Lakes, and will slowly move into the Northeast while deepening. Low pressure will shift northward across western Quebec, with a cold front trailing south into the Mid Atlantic region. Behind this system, high pressure will exist into the Plains and MS Valley. Although winds aloft will increase over the Northeast as the upper low nears, low-level wind speeds, when combined with expected instability levels, do not appear to warrant severe probabilities. ...Northeast... A band of showers and a few thunderstorms is forecast to move east across NY and PA during the day, and into New England after about 00Z. Forecast soundings ahead of the cold front depict minimal instability as high temperatures only reach the upper 60s F to lower 70s F in many areas. In addition, wind speeds in the lowest few km AGL will not be particularly strong either, with less than 30 kt at 850 mb. Therefore, the combination of a relatively shallow/cool boundary layer, combined with modest wind speeds, and lack of appreciable instability, all suggest severe weather is unlikely. ..Jewell.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the USA on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will exist over the Great Lakes, and will slowly move into the Northeast while deepening. Low pressure will shift northward across western Quebec, with a cold front trailing south into the Mid Atlantic region. Behind this system, high pressure will exist into the Plains and MS Valley. Although winds aloft will increase over the Northeast as the upper low nears, low-level wind speeds, when combined with expected instability levels, do not appear to warrant severe probabilities. ...Northeast... A band of showers and a few thunderstorms is forecast to move east across NY and PA during the day, and into New England after about 00Z. Forecast soundings ahead of the cold front depict minimal instability as high temperatures only reach the upper 60s F to lower 70s F in many areas. In addition, wind speeds in the lowest few km AGL will not be particularly strong either, with less than 30 kt at 850 mb. Therefore, the combination of a relatively shallow/cool boundary layer, combined with modest wind speeds, and lack of appreciable instability, all suggest severe weather is unlikely. ..Jewell.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the USA on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will exist over the Great Lakes, and will slowly move into the Northeast while deepening. Low pressure will shift northward across western Quebec, with a cold front trailing south into the Mid Atlantic region. Behind this system, high pressure will exist into the Plains and MS Valley. Although winds aloft will increase over the Northeast as the upper low nears, low-level wind speeds, when combined with expected instability levels, do not appear to warrant severe probabilities. ...Northeast... A band of showers and a few thunderstorms is forecast to move east across NY and PA during the day, and into New England after about 00Z. Forecast soundings ahead of the cold front depict minimal instability as high temperatures only reach the upper 60s F to lower 70s F in many areas. In addition, wind speeds in the lowest few km AGL will not be particularly strong either, with less than 30 kt at 850 mb. Therefore, the combination of a relatively shallow/cool boundary layer, combined with modest wind speeds, and lack of appreciable instability, all suggest severe weather is unlikely. ..Jewell.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the USA on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will exist over the Great Lakes, and will slowly move into the Northeast while deepening. Low pressure will shift northward across western Quebec, with a cold front trailing south into the Mid Atlantic region. Behind this system, high pressure will exist into the Plains and MS Valley. Although winds aloft will increase over the Northeast as the upper low nears, low-level wind speeds, when combined with expected instability levels, do not appear to warrant severe probabilities. ...Northeast... A band of showers and a few thunderstorms is forecast to move east across NY and PA during the day, and into New England after about 00Z. Forecast soundings ahead of the cold front depict minimal instability as high temperatures only reach the upper 60s F to lower 70s F in many areas. In addition, wind speeds in the lowest few km AGL will not be particularly strong either, with less than 30 kt at 850 mb. Therefore, the combination of a relatively shallow/cool boundary layer, combined with modest wind speeds, and lack of appreciable instability, all suggest severe weather is unlikely. ..Jewell.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the USA on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will exist over the Great Lakes, and will slowly move into the Northeast while deepening. Low pressure will shift northward across western Quebec, with a cold front trailing south into the Mid Atlantic region. Behind this system, high pressure will exist into the Plains and MS Valley. Although winds aloft will increase over the Northeast as the upper low nears, low-level wind speeds, when combined with expected instability levels, do not appear to warrant severe probabilities. ...Northeast... A band of showers and a few thunderstorms is forecast to move east across NY and PA during the day, and into New England after about 00Z. Forecast soundings ahead of the cold front depict minimal instability as high temperatures only reach the upper 60s F to lower 70s F in many areas. In addition, wind speeds in the lowest few km AGL will not be particularly strong either, with less than 30 kt at 850 mb. Therefore, the combination of a relatively shallow/cool boundary layer, combined with modest wind speeds, and lack of appreciable instability, all suggest severe weather is unlikely. ..Jewell.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the USA on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will exist over the Great Lakes, and will slowly move into the Northeast while deepening. Low pressure will shift northward across western Quebec, with a cold front trailing south into the Mid Atlantic region. Behind this system, high pressure will exist into the Plains and MS Valley. Although winds aloft will increase over the Northeast as the upper low nears, low-level wind speeds, when combined with expected instability levels, do not appear to warrant severe probabilities. ...Northeast... A band of showers and a few thunderstorms is forecast to move east across NY and PA during the day, and into New England after about 00Z. Forecast soundings ahead of the cold front depict minimal instability as high temperatures only reach the upper 60s F to lower 70s F in many areas. In addition, wind speeds in the lowest few km AGL will not be particularly strong either, with less than 30 kt at 850 mb. Therefore, the combination of a relatively shallow/cool boundary layer, combined with modest wind speeds, and lack of appreciable instability, all suggest severe weather is unlikely. ..Jewell.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OHIO AND PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Friday across much of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will deepen on Friday as it moves from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. The primary speed max will dive southeastward across MN/IA during the day and round the base of the trough into IL, IN, OH and toward Lake Erie into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, modest upper ridging will exist across the West with weak flow. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from near Lake Erie southwestward toward the OH Valley during the afternoon with a surface low developing from Lake Ontario into far southwest Quebec late. Otherwise, the pre-frontal trough will be relatively weak during the day. ...OH and Vicinity... Daytime heating will lead to steepening lapse rates, with a plume of 60s F dewpoints likely east of the cold front. Forecast soundings show in excess of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. While low-level lapse rates will become steep, most of the cooling aloft will be post frontal, and not contribute appreciably to destabilization across the warm sector. Increasing frontal ascent into the uncapped air mass will lead to scattered storms after about 18Z, from far western NY into parts of KY. The most favorable combination of instability and wind profiles appears to be over OH, with sufficiently long hodographs to support hail in some of the storms. Cellular storm mode is expected early, with the undercutting cold front supporting a transition to linear. As such, marginal hail and then wind gusts will be possible through about 02Z, when storms are expected to dissipate with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OHIO AND PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Friday across much of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will deepen on Friday as it moves from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. The primary speed max will dive southeastward across MN/IA during the day and round the base of the trough into IL, IN, OH and toward Lake Erie into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, modest upper ridging will exist across the West with weak flow. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from near Lake Erie southwestward toward the OH Valley during the afternoon with a surface low developing from Lake Ontario into far southwest Quebec late. Otherwise, the pre-frontal trough will be relatively weak during the day. ...OH and Vicinity... Daytime heating will lead to steepening lapse rates, with a plume of 60s F dewpoints likely east of the cold front. Forecast soundings show in excess of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. While low-level lapse rates will become steep, most of the cooling aloft will be post frontal, and not contribute appreciably to destabilization across the warm sector. Increasing frontal ascent into the uncapped air mass will lead to scattered storms after about 18Z, from far western NY into parts of KY. The most favorable combination of instability and wind profiles appears to be over OH, with sufficiently long hodographs to support hail in some of the storms. Cellular storm mode is expected early, with the undercutting cold front supporting a transition to linear. As such, marginal hail and then wind gusts will be possible through about 02Z, when storms are expected to dissipate with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OHIO AND PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Friday across much of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will deepen on Friday as it moves from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. The primary speed max will dive southeastward across MN/IA during the day and round the base of the trough into IL, IN, OH and toward Lake Erie into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, modest upper ridging will exist across the West with weak flow. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from near Lake Erie southwestward toward the OH Valley during the afternoon with a surface low developing from Lake Ontario into far southwest Quebec late. Otherwise, the pre-frontal trough will be relatively weak during the day. ...OH and Vicinity... Daytime heating will lead to steepening lapse rates, with a plume of 60s F dewpoints likely east of the cold front. Forecast soundings show in excess of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. While low-level lapse rates will become steep, most of the cooling aloft will be post frontal, and not contribute appreciably to destabilization across the warm sector. Increasing frontal ascent into the uncapped air mass will lead to scattered storms after about 18Z, from far western NY into parts of KY. The most favorable combination of instability and wind profiles appears to be over OH, with sufficiently long hodographs to support hail in some of the storms. Cellular storm mode is expected early, with the undercutting cold front supporting a transition to linear. As such, marginal hail and then wind gusts will be possible through about 02Z, when storms are expected to dissipate with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 09/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OHIO AND PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Friday across much of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will deepen on Friday as it moves from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. The primary speed max will dive southeastward across MN/IA during the day and round the base of the trough into IL, IN, OH and toward Lake Erie into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, modest upper ridging will exist across the West with weak flow. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from near Lake Erie southwestward toward the OH Valley during the afternoon with a surface low developing from Lake Ontario into far southwest Quebec late. Otherwise, the pre-frontal trough will be relatively weak during the day. ...OH and Vicinity... Daytime heating will lead to steepening lapse rates, with a plume of 60s F dewpoints likely east of the cold front. Forecast soundings show in excess of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. While low-level lapse rates will become steep, most of the cooling aloft will be post frontal, and not contribute appreciably to destabilization across the warm sector. Increasing frontal ascent into the uncapped air mass will lead to scattered storms after about 18Z, from far western NY into parts of KY. The most favorable combination of instability and wind profiles appears to be over OH, with sufficiently long hodographs to support hail in some of the storms. Cellular storm mode is expected early, with the undercutting cold front supporting a transition to linear. As such, marginal hail and then wind gusts will be possible through about 02Z, when storms are expected to dissipate with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 09/05/2024 Read more