Severe Storms

MD 2082 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674...675... FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674...675... Valid 172341Z - 180145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674, 675 continues. SUMMARY...Strong winds are the primary risk along the leading edge of a squall line as it propagates across the central High Plains. DISCUSSION...Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests mid-level short-wave trough is located over southeast CO, ejecting northeast into the central High Plains. Organized convection has evolved ahead of this feature, primarily expressed as a squall line which extends from southwest Yuma County CO-Baca County CO. Strong winds are likely associated with this squall line, and this is the primary risk as the squall line advances into western KS/southwest NE over the next 1-2 hours. ..Darrow.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37460250 39190230 40240282 40790133 39720082 37380154 37460250 Read more

MD 2081 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2081 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Montana...western North Dakota...and northwestern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 172325Z - 180200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and large hail should gradually increase over the next few hours. The area is being monitored for a possible watch, though timing is still uncertain. DISCUSSION...A few strong to severe storms have developed along a north/south-oriented confluence zone across eastern MT. These storms are evolving in an environment characterized by around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per regional VWP) and moderate surface-based instability -- supportive of organized clusters and supercell structures. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts could accompany this activity. During the next few hours, large-scale ascent preceding an approaching midlevel trough may encourage an uptick in convection from northeastern MT into western ND and northwestern SD. Sufficient deep-layer shear/mostly straight hodographs and steep deep-layer lapse rates should favor organized clusters and supercells capable of severe wind gusts and large hail. The overall timing and coverage of the severe threat still remains somewhat uncertain, and convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Hart.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 44600402 46000472 46820548 47140652 47420795 47610861 48260896 48790884 49020819 49010575 48900484 48720435 48260376 46750285 45540234 44960227 44600266 44430348 44600402 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 17 23:00:17 UTC 2024.

MD 2080 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674... FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2080 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into eastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674... Valid 172104Z - 172300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 674 with an increasing wind threat emerging across southeast Colorado and predominantly a hail threat across east/northeast New Mexico. DISCUSSION...Large scale ascent associated with the main upper wave continues to overspread the central Rockies with an uptick in convection noted across south-central CO over the past half hour. A combination of orographic ascent and deep-layer shear oriented along the terrain/initiation zone have favored a linear storm mode with pockets of enhanced low-level velocity noted from the KPUX radar. Downstream from this developing line, MLCAPE continues to increase to around 1000 J/kg in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer shear as the mid-level jet overspreads the region. Consequently, further intensification of this line appears probable with a corresponding increase in severe wind potential downstream across southeast/east-central CO. Further south across eastern NM, more discrete storm mode has supported a few supercells with notable MRMS hail signatures. Weaker forcing for ascent and 30-45 knots of effective bulk shear should continue to favor discrete/semi-discrete cells with a continued risk for large hail for the next few hours. The eastward extent of the risk remains somewhat nebulous as buoyancy decreases into the TX Panhandle due to somewhat shallower mid-level lapse rates; however, convective trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37900229 36100294 34800325 34230345 33850386 33670417 33600450 33600470 33730486 34010508 34220519 34550521 35660506 36580479 37480471 38120491 38430499 38710490 39550247 39370203 38990185 38500198 37900229 Read more

WW 0675 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 675 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/17/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 675 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-172240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-071-109-153-181-193-199-203-172240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-007-013-029-033-045-049-057-069-075-085-087-091-101-105- 111-117-123-135-157-161-165-172240- NE Read more

WW 0675 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 675 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/17/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 675 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-172240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-071-109-153-181-193-199-203-172240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-007-013-029-033-045-049-057-069-075-085-087-091-101-105- 111-117-123-135-157-161-165-172240- NE Read more

WW 0675 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 675 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/17/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 675 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-172240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-071-109-153-181-193-199-203-172240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-007-013-029-033-045-049-057-069-075-085-087-091-101-105- 111-117-123-135-157-161-165-172240- NE Read more

WW 675 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE WY 172055Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 675 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast and East-Central Colorado Northwest Kansas Western Nebraska Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...High-based convection should gradually increase in coverage and intensity as it spreads northeastward across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Numerous strong to severe wind gusts should be the main threat with this activity, with the highest gusts potentially reaching up to 70-80 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Burlington CO to 60 miles north northeast of Torrington WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 674... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0674 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 674 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/17/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 674 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC003-009-011-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-071-089-099-101- 109-119-172240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMOSA BACA BENT CONEJOS COSTILLA CROWLEY CUSTER EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO SAGUACHE TELLER NMC005-007-009-011-019-021-027-033-037-041-047-055-059-172240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES COLFAX CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING LINCOLN MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TAOS UNION Read more

WW 0674 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 674 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/17/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 674 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC003-009-011-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-071-089-099-101- 109-119-172240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMOSA BACA BENT CONEJOS COSTILLA CROWLEY CUSTER EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO SAGUACHE TELLER NMC005-007-009-011-019-021-027-033-037-041-047-055-059-172240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES COLFAX CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING LINCOLN MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TAOS UNION Read more

WW 0674 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 674 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/17/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 674 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC003-009-011-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-071-089-099-101- 109-119-172240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMOSA BACA BENT CONEJOS COSTILLA CROWLEY CUSTER EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO SAGUACHE TELLER NMC005-007-009-011-019-021-027-033-037-041-047-055-059-172240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES COLFAX CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING LINCOLN MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TAOS UNION Read more

WW 674 SEVERE TSTM CO NM 171845Z - 180100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 674 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central and Southeast Colorado Eastern New Mexico * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 700 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms that have developed over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies will continue to move quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and early evening. They should also intensify over the next several hours while posing a threat for mainly severe damaging winds up to 65-75 mph. Isolated large hail around 1-1.5 inches in diameter may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Pueblo CO to 5 miles southwest of Roswell NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Gleason Read more

MD 2079 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN/EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 2079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...northeastern/east central Colorado...adjacent southwestern South Dakota and western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171908Z - 172145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorm development appears increasingly probable across and east of the Front Range by 3-5 PM MDT, accompanied by increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts while spreading through the adjacent high plains through early evening. One or two severe weather watches are possible, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. DISCUSSION...Downstream of a vigorous short wave trough pivoting northeastward toward the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, southwesterly mid/upper flow is in the process of strengthening. This is forecast to include speeds of 40-70+ kt in the 500-300 mb layer across and northeast of the Front Range, above a boundary layer across the high plains which is becoming strongly heated and deeply mixed. Surface temperature/dew points already have commonly reached 40-45 degrees across much of eastern Colorado and Wyoming. While boundary-layer moisture content is generally low, various model output indicates that steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, along the leading edge of mid-level cooling now approaching the Front Range, will support increasing high-based convective development along and east of the higher terrain by 20-22Z. Updrafts might not be particularly intense, at least initially as activity begins to spread toward the high plains, but sub-cloud evaporative cooling and downward mixing of cloud-bearing mean flow on the order of 50 kt are likely to contribute to the risk for strong to severe downbursts. Thereafter, the potential for strong to severe wind gusts may gradually become more widespread as convective outflow becomes more widespread and strengthens while surging northeastward and eastward. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 43860453 43310377 42380364 41490341 39840284 38860290 38430401 39050489 40020512 41470531 42270551 43080550 43860453 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An active mid-level flow regime is expected across the CONUS over the next seven days. A mid-level trough and speed max will pass through the southern Rockies and Plains late this week and into the weekend. A strong lee cyclone will support gusty winds and low humidity. However, widespread rainfall is also expected. Behind the trough, high pressure and higher-latitude zonal flow will develop over the Northwest early next week. Some potential for easterly offshore could develop, but significant forecast uncertainty is present in the medium range. This suggests the threat for fire-weather conditions is relatively low. ...Southern Plains... As the aforementioned trough ejects eastward, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Currently, area fuels are not receptive to fire spread. Additional precipitation also appears likely over the next few days. However, strong lee cyclogenesis is also expected to bolster surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the end of the week and into the early weekend. Some potential for drying mid week could support at least some low-end fire-weather concerns if fuels are able to dry. While this is uncertain, some risk for fire-weather concerns is possible. ...West Coast... Late in the weekend and into early next week, some model guidance shows the development of high pressure across the Great Basin, while broad weak troughing could intensify off the West Coast. Should this occur, offshore pressure gradients may develop, and could support some dry and breezy conditions across parts of CA and the coastal ranges of WA and OR. However, forecast and fuels uncertainty is significant, and no probabilities will be introduced until a clearer solution develops. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An active mid-level flow regime is expected across the CONUS over the next seven days. A mid-level trough and speed max will pass through the southern Rockies and Plains late this week and into the weekend. A strong lee cyclone will support gusty winds and low humidity. However, widespread rainfall is also expected. Behind the trough, high pressure and higher-latitude zonal flow will develop over the Northwest early next week. Some potential for easterly offshore could develop, but significant forecast uncertainty is present in the medium range. This suggests the threat for fire-weather conditions is relatively low. ...Southern Plains... As the aforementioned trough ejects eastward, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Currently, area fuels are not receptive to fire spread. Additional precipitation also appears likely over the next few days. However, strong lee cyclogenesis is also expected to bolster surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the end of the week and into the early weekend. Some potential for drying mid week could support at least some low-end fire-weather concerns if fuels are able to dry. While this is uncertain, some risk for fire-weather concerns is possible. ...West Coast... Late in the weekend and into early next week, some model guidance shows the development of high pressure across the Great Basin, while broad weak troughing could intensify off the West Coast. Should this occur, offshore pressure gradients may develop, and could support some dry and breezy conditions across parts of CA and the coastal ranges of WA and OR. However, forecast and fuels uncertainty is significant, and no probabilities will be introduced until a clearer solution develops. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An active mid-level flow regime is expected across the CONUS over the next seven days. A mid-level trough and speed max will pass through the southern Rockies and Plains late this week and into the weekend. A strong lee cyclone will support gusty winds and low humidity. However, widespread rainfall is also expected. Behind the trough, high pressure and higher-latitude zonal flow will develop over the Northwest early next week. Some potential for easterly offshore could develop, but significant forecast uncertainty is present in the medium range. This suggests the threat for fire-weather conditions is relatively low. ...Southern Plains... As the aforementioned trough ejects eastward, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Currently, area fuels are not receptive to fire spread. Additional precipitation also appears likely over the next few days. However, strong lee cyclogenesis is also expected to bolster surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the end of the week and into the early weekend. Some potential for drying mid week could support at least some low-end fire-weather concerns if fuels are able to dry. While this is uncertain, some risk for fire-weather concerns is possible. ...West Coast... Late in the weekend and into early next week, some model guidance shows the development of high pressure across the Great Basin, while broad weak troughing could intensify off the West Coast. Should this occur, offshore pressure gradients may develop, and could support some dry and breezy conditions across parts of CA and the coastal ranges of WA and OR. However, forecast and fuels uncertainty is significant, and no probabilities will be introduced until a clearer solution develops. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An active mid-level flow regime is expected across the CONUS over the next seven days. A mid-level trough and speed max will pass through the southern Rockies and Plains late this week and into the weekend. A strong lee cyclone will support gusty winds and low humidity. However, widespread rainfall is also expected. Behind the trough, high pressure and higher-latitude zonal flow will develop over the Northwest early next week. Some potential for easterly offshore could develop, but significant forecast uncertainty is present in the medium range. This suggests the threat for fire-weather conditions is relatively low. ...Southern Plains... As the aforementioned trough ejects eastward, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Currently, area fuels are not receptive to fire spread. Additional precipitation also appears likely over the next few days. However, strong lee cyclogenesis is also expected to bolster surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the end of the week and into the early weekend. Some potential for drying mid week could support at least some low-end fire-weather concerns if fuels are able to dry. While this is uncertain, some risk for fire-weather concerns is possible. ...West Coast... Late in the weekend and into early next week, some model guidance shows the development of high pressure across the Great Basin, while broad weak troughing could intensify off the West Coast. Should this occur, offshore pressure gradients may develop, and could support some dry and breezy conditions across parts of CA and the coastal ranges of WA and OR. However, forecast and fuels uncertainty is significant, and no probabilities will be introduced until a clearer solution develops. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An active mid-level flow regime is expected across the CONUS over the next seven days. A mid-level trough and speed max will pass through the southern Rockies and Plains late this week and into the weekend. A strong lee cyclone will support gusty winds and low humidity. However, widespread rainfall is also expected. Behind the trough, high pressure and higher-latitude zonal flow will develop over the Northwest early next week. Some potential for easterly offshore could develop, but significant forecast uncertainty is present in the medium range. This suggests the threat for fire-weather conditions is relatively low. ...Southern Plains... As the aforementioned trough ejects eastward, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Currently, area fuels are not receptive to fire spread. Additional precipitation also appears likely over the next few days. However, strong lee cyclogenesis is also expected to bolster surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the end of the week and into the early weekend. Some potential for drying mid week could support at least some low-end fire-weather concerns if fuels are able to dry. While this is uncertain, some risk for fire-weather concerns is possible. ...West Coast... Late in the weekend and into early next week, some model guidance shows the development of high pressure across the Great Basin, while broad weak troughing could intensify off the West Coast. Should this occur, offshore pressure gradients may develop, and could support some dry and breezy conditions across parts of CA and the coastal ranges of WA and OR. However, forecast and fuels uncertainty is significant, and no probabilities will be introduced until a clearer solution develops. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An active mid-level flow regime is expected across the CONUS over the next seven days. A mid-level trough and speed max will pass through the southern Rockies and Plains late this week and into the weekend. A strong lee cyclone will support gusty winds and low humidity. However, widespread rainfall is also expected. Behind the trough, high pressure and higher-latitude zonal flow will develop over the Northwest early next week. Some potential for easterly offshore could develop, but significant forecast uncertainty is present in the medium range. This suggests the threat for fire-weather conditions is relatively low. ...Southern Plains... As the aforementioned trough ejects eastward, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Currently, area fuels are not receptive to fire spread. Additional precipitation also appears likely over the next few days. However, strong lee cyclogenesis is also expected to bolster surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the end of the week and into the early weekend. Some potential for drying mid week could support at least some low-end fire-weather concerns if fuels are able to dry. While this is uncertain, some risk for fire-weather concerns is possible. ...West Coast... Late in the weekend and into early next week, some model guidance shows the development of high pressure across the Great Basin, while broad weak troughing could intensify off the West Coast. Should this occur, offshore pressure gradients may develop, and could support some dry and breezy conditions across parts of CA and the coastal ranges of WA and OR. However, forecast and fuels uncertainty is significant, and no probabilities will be introduced until a clearer solution develops. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An active mid-level flow regime is expected across the CONUS over the next seven days. A mid-level trough and speed max will pass through the southern Rockies and Plains late this week and into the weekend. A strong lee cyclone will support gusty winds and low humidity. However, widespread rainfall is also expected. Behind the trough, high pressure and higher-latitude zonal flow will develop over the Northwest early next week. Some potential for easterly offshore could develop, but significant forecast uncertainty is present in the medium range. This suggests the threat for fire-weather conditions is relatively low. ...Southern Plains... As the aforementioned trough ejects eastward, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Currently, area fuels are not receptive to fire spread. Additional precipitation also appears likely over the next few days. However, strong lee cyclogenesis is also expected to bolster surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the end of the week and into the early weekend. Some potential for drying mid week could support at least some low-end fire-weather concerns if fuels are able to dry. While this is uncertain, some risk for fire-weather concerns is possible. ...West Coast... Late in the weekend and into early next week, some model guidance shows the development of high pressure across the Great Basin, while broad weak troughing could intensify off the West Coast. Should this occur, offshore pressure gradients may develop, and could support some dry and breezy conditions across parts of CA and the coastal ranges of WA and OR. However, forecast and fuels uncertainty is significant, and no probabilities will be introduced until a clearer solution develops. ..Lyons.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more