Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Gusty post-frontal winds are possible across parts of the Dakotas, through the Cascade Gaps and parts of northern CA. However, much of the fuels over these areas should remain poorly receptive to fire spread following recent precipitation. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a midlevel low moving northeastward from the northern Plains into Canada, an expansive surface high will develop across much of the West. At the same time, a deep midlevel low and strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread southern CA and the Lower CO River Valley. Overall, this pattern will limit the overlap of strong surface winds and warm/dry boundary-layer conditions atop dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Separate northern-stream and southern-stream mid/upper-level shortwave troughs are forecast to move across parts of the West on Friday, with the northern shortwave reaching the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a stout midlevel anticyclone (with the warmest 500 mb temperatures near or slightly above 0C) will remain anchored over Texas. A weakening mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a weakening cold front will extend somewhere from the south-central Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by late afternoon. This front may tend to stall with time, and potentially move northward as warm front across the central Plains later Friday night into Saturday morning. A general lack of overlap between favorable moisture/instability and stronger ascent/deep-layer flow is currently expected to limit organized severe potential on Friday. Isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the weakening front from the Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Elevated storm development will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning across parts of the central Plains, within a warm-advection regime. It remains uncertain if elevated buoyancy will become sufficient for any hail potential with the stronger storms within this regime. High-based convection that may be capable of localized strong gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies, in association with the southern-stream shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 09/18/2024 Read more