Severe Storms

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW 7R4 TO 35 E LFT TO 15 ESE MCB TO 25 SE LLQ. WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 290300Z. ..THORNTON..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-045-063-101-105-117-290300- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION IBERIA LIVINGSTON ST. MARY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC019-023-025-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-087-091-099-101- 103-105-147-155-159-290300- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LOWNDES MARION NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA WALTHALL WEBSTER WINSTON Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW 7R4 TO 35 E LFT TO 15 ESE MCB TO 25 SE LLQ. WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 290300Z. ..THORNTON..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-045-063-101-105-117-290300- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION IBERIA LIVINGSTON ST. MARY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC019-023-025-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-087-091-099-101- 103-105-147-155-159-290300- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LOWNDES MARION NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA WALTHALL WEBSTER WINSTON Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW 7R4 TO 35 E LFT TO 15 ESE MCB TO 25 SE LLQ. WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 290300Z. ..THORNTON..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-045-063-101-105-117-290300- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION IBERIA LIVINGSTON ST. MARY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC019-023-025-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-087-091-099-101- 103-105-147-155-159-290300- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LOWNDES MARION NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA WALTHALL WEBSTER WINSTON Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW 7R4 TO 35 E LFT TO 15 ESE MCB TO 25 SE LLQ. WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 290300Z. ..THORNTON..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-045-063-101-105-117-290300- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION IBERIA LIVINGSTON ST. MARY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC019-023-025-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-087-091-099-101- 103-105-147-155-159-290300- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LOWNDES MARION NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA WALTHALL WEBSTER WINSTON Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW 7R4 TO 35 E LFT TO 15 ESE MCB TO 25 SE LLQ. WW 720 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 290300Z. ..THORNTON..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-045-063-101-105-117-290300- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION IBERIA LIVINGSTON ST. MARY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC019-023-025-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-087-091-099-101- 103-105-147-155-159-290300- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LOWNDES MARION NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA WALTHALL WEBSTER WINSTON Read more

WW 720 TORNADO AR LA MS TX CW 282015Z - 290300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Central and Southwest Louisiana Southwest Mississippi Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 900 PM CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Numerous severe/supercell thunderstorms are expected to intensify through the afternoon over east Texas and western Louisiana, spreading rapidly northeastward across the watch through early evening. Parameters are becoming increasingly favorable for tornadoes, including strong tornadoes, and widespread damaging winds through the watch period. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Port Arthur TX to 50 miles northeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 718...WW 719... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

MD 2308 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 2308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...Central/Northern Alabama into extreme southern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 290059Z - 290230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be warranted later this evening from central Alabama, northward, possibly into extreme southern Tennessee. DISCUSSION...LLJ continues to strengthen across MS into middle TN early this evening. Low-level warm advection is intense ahead of the primary squall line, and this is primarily responsible for scattered convection that is evolving along the MS/AL border. While the lead warm-advection storms are likely a bit elevated, surface dew points have risen into the lower 60s as far north as Jackson TN. With time lower 60s dew points will surge across the remainder of northern AL. While surface-based buoyancy will remain a bit weak across this region, intense shear will contribute to the longevity of upstream squall line, along with scattered warm advection storms. New tornado watch is likely warranted downstream. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 32428817 35118787 34898591 32308630 32428817 Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0722 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE LCH TO 5 ENE LFT TO 10 NNW MCB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2309 ..THORNTON..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-033-045-047-063-091-099-101-105-113-117-121-290240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION EAST BATON ROUGE IBERIA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. MARTIN ST. MARY TANGIPAHOA VERMILION WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE MSC007-015-019-023-025-031-035-043-051-061-065-067-069-073-075- 077-079-087-089-091-097-099-101-103-105-113-121-123-127-129-147- 155-159-290240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATTALA CARROLL CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COVINGTON FORREST GRENADA HOLMES JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE Read more

WW 0721 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 721 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 721 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-035-039-041-053-097-099-129-131-290240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-091-113-290240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA LAC007-051-057-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-109-290240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASSUMPTION JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD Read more

MD 2307 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 720... FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 2307 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...Central/northern Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 720... Valid 290004Z - 290130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across central into northern Mississippi over the next several hours. Tornadoes and damaging winds are the primary risks. Tornado watch will be expanded east, and north. DISCUSSION...LLJ is expected to increase markedly across MS into middle TN later this evening. Latest guidance suggests 850mb flow should increase in excess of 60kt which will encourage continued boundary-layer recovery into this portion of the mid-south region. Latest VWP data from GWX supports this with 0-3km SRH greater than 700 m2/s2, and 2km flow around 55kt. Over the last hour or so, pre-squall line convection has gradually increased in intensity, and a maturing supercell, potentially tornadic, is tracking across Lincoln into Lawrence County MS. As the air mass recovers, and buoyancy increases, these types of structures may increase ahead of the surging squall line. Strong large-scale forcing will overspread, and support, the squall line such that it should remain the primary storm mode this evening. Even so, pre-squall line, and embedded, supercells are expected. Tornado threat remains highest with these supercells. Tornado watch will need to be expanded east ahead of this surging activity. ..Darrow.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 31729109 34228987 34148830 31378975 31729109 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Southern Mississippi Western and Central Alabama Southeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF-2 damage possible) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts are expected this evening through tonight. The threat area will shift eastward across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this evening, and continue overnight through early Sunday morning over portions of the Tennessee Valley, central Gulf Coast states, and western Georgia. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Southern Mississippi Western and Central Alabama Southeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF-2 damage possible) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts are expected this evening through tonight. The threat area will shift eastward across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this evening, and continue overnight through early Sunday morning over portions of the Tennessee Valley, central Gulf Coast states, and western Georgia. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Southern Mississippi Western and Central Alabama Southeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF-2 damage possible) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts are expected this evening through tonight. The threat area will shift eastward across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this evening, and continue overnight through early Sunday morning over portions of the Tennessee Valley, central Gulf Coast states, and western Georgia. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Southern Mississippi Western and Central Alabama Southeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF-2 damage possible) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts are expected this evening through tonight. The threat area will shift eastward across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this evening, and continue overnight through early Sunday morning over portions of the Tennessee Valley, central Gulf Coast states, and western Georgia. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Southern Mississippi Western and Central Alabama Southeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF-2 damage possible) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts are expected this evening through tonight. The threat area will shift eastward across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this evening, and continue overnight through early Sunday morning over portions of the Tennessee Valley, central Gulf Coast states, and western Georgia. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Southern Mississippi Western and Central Alabama Southeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF-2 damage possible) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts are expected this evening through tonight. The threat area will shift eastward across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this evening, and continue overnight through early Sunday morning over portions of the Tennessee Valley, central Gulf Coast states, and western Georgia. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of tornadoes and severe wind gusts will continue this evening into tonight from the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Long-track tornadoes of greater than EF2 intensity will be likely in some areas. Wind gusts greater than 70 mph will also be possible. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over northeast Texas, with an associated trough in east Texas. Ahead of the trough, a 65 to 80 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Texas and central Louisiana. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Mississippi southwestward into south-central Louisiana, along which a severe linear MCS is ongoing. The MCS is near an axis of moderate instability, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F. Along and near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE ranging from 1000 J/kg in west-central Mississippi to around 3000 J/kg along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Near the axis of instability, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed ahead of the linear MCS. Isolated supercells are ongoing near the axis of this low-level jet in south-central Mississippi. RAP forecast soundings early this evening at Jackson, Mississippi have impressive wind profiles, with 0-6 km shear of 50 to 55 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. The shear environment will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Long-track tornadoes of EF3+ in intensity will be possible this evening with supercells that remain discrete out ahead of the linear MCS. Strong tornadoes will also be possible with embedded supercells within the line. The linear MCS, accompanied by severe wind gusts and tornadoes, will continue to move quickly eastward across Mississippi this evening. By late evening, the line is expected to be located from far western Alabama into southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. The potential for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will likely continue along the more intense parts of the line through much of the night. By daybreak, the line should be located from western Georgia southward into the Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of tornadoes and severe wind gusts will continue this evening into tonight from the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Long-track tornadoes of greater than EF2 intensity will be likely in some areas. Wind gusts greater than 70 mph will also be possible. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over northeast Texas, with an associated trough in east Texas. Ahead of the trough, a 65 to 80 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Texas and central Louisiana. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Mississippi southwestward into south-central Louisiana, along which a severe linear MCS is ongoing. The MCS is near an axis of moderate instability, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F. Along and near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE ranging from 1000 J/kg in west-central Mississippi to around 3000 J/kg along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Near the axis of instability, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed ahead of the linear MCS. Isolated supercells are ongoing near the axis of this low-level jet in south-central Mississippi. RAP forecast soundings early this evening at Jackson, Mississippi have impressive wind profiles, with 0-6 km shear of 50 to 55 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. The shear environment will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Long-track tornadoes of EF3+ in intensity will be possible this evening with supercells that remain discrete out ahead of the linear MCS. Strong tornadoes will also be possible with embedded supercells within the line. The linear MCS, accompanied by severe wind gusts and tornadoes, will continue to move quickly eastward across Mississippi this evening. By late evening, the line is expected to be located from far western Alabama into southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. The potential for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will likely continue along the more intense parts of the line through much of the night. By daybreak, the line should be located from western Georgia southward into the Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of tornadoes and severe wind gusts will continue this evening into tonight from the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Long-track tornadoes of greater than EF2 intensity will be likely in some areas. Wind gusts greater than 70 mph will also be possible. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over northeast Texas, with an associated trough in east Texas. Ahead of the trough, a 65 to 80 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Texas and central Louisiana. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Mississippi southwestward into south-central Louisiana, along which a severe linear MCS is ongoing. The MCS is near an axis of moderate instability, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F. Along and near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE ranging from 1000 J/kg in west-central Mississippi to around 3000 J/kg along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Near the axis of instability, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed ahead of the linear MCS. Isolated supercells are ongoing near the axis of this low-level jet in south-central Mississippi. RAP forecast soundings early this evening at Jackson, Mississippi have impressive wind profiles, with 0-6 km shear of 50 to 55 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. The shear environment will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Long-track tornadoes of EF3+ in intensity will be possible this evening with supercells that remain discrete out ahead of the linear MCS. Strong tornadoes will also be possible with embedded supercells within the line. The linear MCS, accompanied by severe wind gusts and tornadoes, will continue to move quickly eastward across Mississippi this evening. By late evening, the line is expected to be located from far western Alabama into southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. The potential for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will likely continue along the more intense parts of the line through much of the night. By daybreak, the line should be located from western Georgia southward into the Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 12/29/2024 Read more