Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A compact, negatively-tilted upper trough will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley and northeast U.S. Tuesday, as a developing coastal low near the Mid-Atlantic coast moves into southern New England by 12z Wednesday. Strong ascent will overspread this area in advance of a cold front, and an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible within an area of developing precipitation during the afternoon from coastal NC across the Delmarva region. With very minimal MUCAPE expected, coverage should be too sparse for introduction of a general thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, thunderstorms chances will be negligible in the presence of a generally dry and stable air mass over much of the CONUS. ..Bunting.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A compact, negatively-tilted upper trough will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley and northeast U.S. Tuesday, as a developing coastal low near the Mid-Atlantic coast moves into southern New England by 12z Wednesday. Strong ascent will overspread this area in advance of a cold front, and an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible within an area of developing precipitation during the afternoon from coastal NC across the Delmarva region. With very minimal MUCAPE expected, coverage should be too sparse for introduction of a general thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, thunderstorms chances will be negligible in the presence of a generally dry and stable air mass over much of the CONUS. ..Bunting.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A compact, negatively-tilted upper trough will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley and northeast U.S. Tuesday, as a developing coastal low near the Mid-Atlantic coast moves into southern New England by 12z Wednesday. Strong ascent will overspread this area in advance of a cold front, and an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible within an area of developing precipitation during the afternoon from coastal NC across the Delmarva region. With very minimal MUCAPE expected, coverage should be too sparse for introduction of a general thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, thunderstorms chances will be negligible in the presence of a generally dry and stable air mass over much of the CONUS. ..Bunting.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A compact, negatively-tilted upper trough will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley and northeast U.S. Tuesday, as a developing coastal low near the Mid-Atlantic coast moves into southern New England by 12z Wednesday. Strong ascent will overspread this area in advance of a cold front, and an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible within an area of developing precipitation during the afternoon from coastal NC across the Delmarva region. With very minimal MUCAPE expected, coverage should be too sparse for introduction of a general thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, thunderstorms chances will be negligible in the presence of a generally dry and stable air mass over much of the CONUS. ..Bunting.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A compact, negatively-tilted upper trough will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley and northeast U.S. Tuesday, as a developing coastal low near the Mid-Atlantic coast moves into southern New England by 12z Wednesday. Strong ascent will overspread this area in advance of a cold front, and an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible within an area of developing precipitation during the afternoon from coastal NC across the Delmarva region. With very minimal MUCAPE expected, coverage should be too sparse for introduction of a general thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, thunderstorms chances will be negligible in the presence of a generally dry and stable air mass over much of the CONUS. ..Bunting.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A compact, negatively-tilted upper trough will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley and northeast U.S. Tuesday, as a developing coastal low near the Mid-Atlantic coast moves into southern New England by 12z Wednesday. Strong ascent will overspread this area in advance of a cold front, and an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible within an area of developing precipitation during the afternoon from coastal NC across the Delmarva region. With very minimal MUCAPE expected, coverage should be too sparse for introduction of a general thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, thunderstorms chances will be negligible in the presence of a generally dry and stable air mass over much of the CONUS. ..Bunting.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A compact, negatively-tilted upper trough will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley and northeast U.S. Tuesday, as a developing coastal low near the Mid-Atlantic coast moves into southern New England by 12z Wednesday. Strong ascent will overspread this area in advance of a cold front, and an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible within an area of developing precipitation during the afternoon from coastal NC across the Delmarva region. With very minimal MUCAPE expected, coverage should be too sparse for introduction of a general thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, thunderstorms chances will be negligible in the presence of a generally dry and stable air mass over much of the CONUS. ..Bunting.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A compact, negatively-tilted upper trough will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley and northeast U.S. Tuesday, as a developing coastal low near the Mid-Atlantic coast moves into southern New England by 12z Wednesday. Strong ascent will overspread this area in advance of a cold front, and an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible within an area of developing precipitation during the afternoon from coastal NC across the Delmarva region. With very minimal MUCAPE expected, coverage should be too sparse for introduction of a general thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, thunderstorms chances will be negligible in the presence of a generally dry and stable air mass over much of the CONUS. ..Bunting.. 12/29/2024 Read more

MD 2313 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 722...723... FOR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AL TO WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 2313 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Areas affected...east-central/southeast AL to west-central/southwest GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 722...723... Valid 290721Z - 290815Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 722, 723 continues. SUMMARY...Primary corridor of tornado potential through the pre-dawn hours should exist from southeast of Montgomery, east-northeast along the I-85 to I-75 corridors in Alabama/Georgia. DISCUSSION...After merger of a long-track supercell with the extensive QLCS near the Montgomery area of AL, an embedded bowing structure with mesovortices has formed and recently produced a brief TDS per the MXX 88D. The downstream evolution of this bow/mesovortices will likely contain greater tornado potential within WWs 722/723 during the next few hours. The MXX VWP has sampled a rather enlarged low-level hodograph with 0-1 km shear from 35-40 kts. MLCAPE around 500 J/kg should gradually spread east-northeast as surface dew points slowly increase through the mid 60s from southeast AL/south GA. ..Grams.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 32378590 32818594 32998561 33238513 33338453 33308404 32948361 32318355 32048410 31878483 31868568 31918602 31918602 32378590 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS/TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS/TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS/TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS/TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS/TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS/TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS/TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS/TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS/TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS/TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS/TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more