Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes are required for today's update. Increasing westerly surface winds are expected across the High Plains of NM, which could result in ~1 hour of localized elevated fire weather conditions there later this afternoon as RH falls into the low teens. Due to the limited duration of these conditions, however, an Elevated area is not warranted. ..Barnes.. 12/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and accompanying jet streak will cross the northern Rockies, while a related lee cyclone/trough briefly deepens over the central and southern Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains, though fire-weather concerns will be low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Northern CA/Pacific Northwest coast through tonight... Lightning flashes have been observed this morning within a baroclinic band roughly 150 mi off the northern CA coast, in association with a midlevel shortwave trough that will move inland later today into tonight. The potential for isolated lightning flashes inland will begin this afternoon with elevated convection in the warm conveyor belt across northwest CA/southwest OR. Other isolated lightning flashes may also occur this evening into early tonight along the WA coast as steeper low-midlevel lapse rates and weak buoyancy spread inland. ..Thompson/Moore.. 12/22/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 21 17:55:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 21 17:55:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging over the central CONUS will begin to break down through the day Sunday as a shortwave trough, currently moving into the Pacific Northwest, traverses the Rockies. A broad surface high building over the eastern CONUS will maintain cool/dry conditions. Weak lee troughing over the High Plains will promote gradual moisture return along the TX Gulf coast, but moisture quality/depth and poor mid-level lapse rates will be insufficient to support deep convection. A pronounced upper wave noted over the northern Pacific in water-vapor imagery will approach the West Coast through the period. Latest forecast guidance suggests sufficient destabilization for a few lightning flashes is possible as colder temperatures aloft and broad scale ascent overspread the region. The potential for severe convection remains low given very limited buoyancy. ..Moore.. 12/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes are possible through this afternoon along the Oregon coast and vicinity. ...OR coast and vicinity through this afternoon... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated thermal trough will move inland over WA/OR through the day. Isolated lightning flashes occurred earlier this morning in northern CA with convection/minimal buoyancy rooted above the 700 mb level, though this threat appears to already be diminishing. Through this afternoon, colder midlevel temperatures and associated steeper low-midlevel lapse rates will spread inland over coastal OR where isolated, low-topped thunderstorms will be possible. ..Thompson/Bentley.. 12/21/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 12/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns will be minimal today, as a cold air mass encompasses much of the central and eastern CONUS. Weak surface lee troughing may result in locally breezy conditions over portions of the High Plains, though a limited overlap with warm/dry conditions will preclude fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Mildly dry and/or breezy conditions may develop locally along the central High Plains by afternoon peak heating. Otherwise, quiescent fire weather conditions are still expected across the rest of the CONUS tomorrow (Saturday). ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a large-scale trough moving off the New England coast, a cold post-frontal air mass will persist over the eastern half of the CONUS, limiting the overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 20 19:05:01 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 20 19:05:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge centered near the Continental Divide will translate slowly eastward through the day as a strong, compact, negatively-tilted mid-level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Across the eastern CONUS a trough will persist on Saturday with dry, offshore flow at the surface. The lack of low-level moisture will limit any thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. The only exception will be across the Oregon/northern California coasts where cooling mid-level temps over the relatively warmer ocean waters may result in some shallow instability and the potential for a few thunderstorms. The strong low-level jet (50 to 70 knots from 12Z to 18Z Saturday along the Oregon/northern CA coast) may result in some gusty winds, even where lightning is not present. However, overall, limited instability should mitigate any severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 12/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move from the OH Valley to the Northeast, while a midlevel ridge persists over the Intermountain West. This will maintain relatively cool post-frontal conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Over the central High Plains, surface lee troughing may result in locally dry/breezy conditions, though fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through the Mid MS Valley is expected to continue cyclonically through the base of the mean upper troughing over eastern North America, which takes it off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late tonight. Another shortwave trough is expected in its wake over the Great Lakes this afternoon through tonight, while yet another shortwave trough drops southeastward through the northern Plains. This evolution will help maintain mean troughing across the central and eastern CONUS, with cold and stable low levels precluding thunderstorm development. Farther west, upper ridging will persist another much of the western CONUS. Some dampening is anticipated within the northwestern periphery of is ridging as a pair of shortwave troughs rotate around an upper low over the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Frontal band associated with the second of these waves should reach the northern CA coast early Saturday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures and related steep mid-level lapse rates may result in enough buoyancy for a few lightning flashes within this band. ..Mosier/Moore.. 12/20/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 19 18:46:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 19 18:46:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential over the CONUS is low. Amplifying mid-level flow over the US will result in deep troughing over the eastern US and ridging to the west. A surface cyclone moving through the Midwest will drag a cold front across the central CONUS, eventually moving offshore over the East. High pressure with a much cooler air mass behind the front will favor cool and dry conditions. This will largely limit fire-weather concerns, as a poor overlap of strong winds and low humidity are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2273 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Areas affected...far southeastern Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 191548Z - 191845Z SUMMARY...Areas of heavy snow with rates around 1" per hour to continue through the late morning. DISCUSSION...Bands of moderate to heavy snow are ongoing across portions of southeastern MN into west-central WI. The heaviest snow appears to be focused near the MN/WI/IA border where upper-level divergence from a mid-level shortwave is leading to greater forcing amid deep moist convergence. HREF guidance indicates that rates will come down into the afternoon as upper-level support shifts southward, before the backside of the low shifts across the region later in the afternoon/evening when rates may increase again. ..Thornton.. 12/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44769223 44589279 44049233 43749159 43529082 43379004 43649010 44049035 44439087 44769223 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1116 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the Lower 48 on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough developing southeast over the northern/central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley will reinforce mean upper troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS on Friday. Strong surface high pressure will overspread the central U.S. while a cold front develops far south into the Gulf and offshore the Atlantic coast. This will leave a dry and stable airmass over much of the CONUS, and thunderstorm chances will be low. ..15_ows.. 12/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1116 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the Lower 48 on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough developing southeast over the northern/central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley will reinforce mean upper troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS on Friday. Strong surface high pressure will overspread the central U.S. while a cold front develops far south into the Gulf and offshore the Atlantic coast. This will leave a dry and stable airmass over much of the CONUS, and thunderstorm chances will be low. ..15_ows.. 12/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1015 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected through late afternoon across extreme southeastern Florida. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Florida is experiencing a weak cold-frontal passage moving southward through late afternoon. This in combination with short-wave trough approaching from the west, ample low-level moisture, and weak instability will result in isolated thunderstorms for a few hours. ..15_ows.. 12/19/2024 Read more