Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough/vorticity maximum settling into the southern/central High Plains. This feature is expected to stall and weaken over the Plains over the next 24 hours with a gradual abatement of mid-level flow. To the north, a pronounced mid-level wave is apparent over the Canadian Rockies/Prairies. This feature will continue southeastward into the northern Plains and upper Mississippi River Valley through tonight. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be attendant to these mid-level features. ...Southern High Plains... 05z surface observations across the southern Plains reveal a composite frontal zone/outflow boundary draped from far northeast NM through the TX/OK Panhandles and roughly along the OK/KS border. This boundary will likely be displaced southward as a result of early-morning convection, though precisely where this boundary resides by peak heating is somewhat uncertain. Regardless, thunderstorm development along this boundary is expected by late afternoon/early evening. To the south of this boundary, easterly winds on the northern periphery of a weak surface low over the Permian Basin will maintain an upslope flow regime along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento, Sandia Manzano, and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Modest westerly mid-level flow atop easterly low-level winds should yield sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized storms, including a supercell or two. With time, upscale growth and/or merging with additional convection developing along the surface boundary will promote an increased threat for severe gusts through early evening. While convection is expected northeastward along much of the boundary from central OK into adjacent portions of KS/MO, weaker mid-level winds with eastward extent casts doubt on the potential for a robust severe threat (aside from occasional strong wet downbursts). ...Red River Valley of the North... Modest surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Canadian Prairies over the next 24 hours as the mid-level wave approaches the international border. An attendant cold front is forecast to spread across the northern Plains through late afternoon and will impinge on a plume of seasonal low-level moisture. While mid-level lapse rates will remain modest (around 6-7 C/km), adequate buoyancy should be in place for deep convection. 30-40 knot mid-level flow should provide sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storms, though the marginal thermodynamic environment will likely be a modulating factor in overall storm intensity. Strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth through the evening hours with an associated threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore/Darrow.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough/vorticity maximum settling into the southern/central High Plains. This feature is expected to stall and weaken over the Plains over the next 24 hours with a gradual abatement of mid-level flow. To the north, a pronounced mid-level wave is apparent over the Canadian Rockies/Prairies. This feature will continue southeastward into the northern Plains and upper Mississippi River Valley through tonight. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be attendant to these mid-level features. ...Southern High Plains... 05z surface observations across the southern Plains reveal a composite frontal zone/outflow boundary draped from far northeast NM through the TX/OK Panhandles and roughly along the OK/KS border. This boundary will likely be displaced southward as a result of early-morning convection, though precisely where this boundary resides by peak heating is somewhat uncertain. Regardless, thunderstorm development along this boundary is expected by late afternoon/early evening. To the south of this boundary, easterly winds on the northern periphery of a weak surface low over the Permian Basin will maintain an upslope flow regime along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento, Sandia Manzano, and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Modest westerly mid-level flow atop easterly low-level winds should yield sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized storms, including a supercell or two. With time, upscale growth and/or merging with additional convection developing along the surface boundary will promote an increased threat for severe gusts through early evening. While convection is expected northeastward along much of the boundary from central OK into adjacent portions of KS/MO, weaker mid-level winds with eastward extent casts doubt on the potential for a robust severe threat (aside from occasional strong wet downbursts). ...Red River Valley of the North... Modest surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Canadian Prairies over the next 24 hours as the mid-level wave approaches the international border. An attendant cold front is forecast to spread across the northern Plains through late afternoon and will impinge on a plume of seasonal low-level moisture. While mid-level lapse rates will remain modest (around 6-7 C/km), adequate buoyancy should be in place for deep convection. 30-40 knot mid-level flow should provide sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storms, though the marginal thermodynamic environment will likely be a modulating factor in overall storm intensity. Strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth through the evening hours with an associated threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore/Darrow.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough/vorticity maximum settling into the southern/central High Plains. This feature is expected to stall and weaken over the Plains over the next 24 hours with a gradual abatement of mid-level flow. To the north, a pronounced mid-level wave is apparent over the Canadian Rockies/Prairies. This feature will continue southeastward into the northern Plains and upper Mississippi River Valley through tonight. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be attendant to these mid-level features. ...Southern High Plains... 05z surface observations across the southern Plains reveal a composite frontal zone/outflow boundary draped from far northeast NM through the TX/OK Panhandles and roughly along the OK/KS border. This boundary will likely be displaced southward as a result of early-morning convection, though precisely where this boundary resides by peak heating is somewhat uncertain. Regardless, thunderstorm development along this boundary is expected by late afternoon/early evening. To the south of this boundary, easterly winds on the northern periphery of a weak surface low over the Permian Basin will maintain an upslope flow regime along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento, Sandia Manzano, and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Modest westerly mid-level flow atop easterly low-level winds should yield sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized storms, including a supercell or two. With time, upscale growth and/or merging with additional convection developing along the surface boundary will promote an increased threat for severe gusts through early evening. While convection is expected northeastward along much of the boundary from central OK into adjacent portions of KS/MO, weaker mid-level winds with eastward extent casts doubt on the potential for a robust severe threat (aside from occasional strong wet downbursts). ...Red River Valley of the North... Modest surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Canadian Prairies over the next 24 hours as the mid-level wave approaches the international border. An attendant cold front is forecast to spread across the northern Plains through late afternoon and will impinge on a plume of seasonal low-level moisture. While mid-level lapse rates will remain modest (around 6-7 C/km), adequate buoyancy should be in place for deep convection. 30-40 knot mid-level flow should provide sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storms, though the marginal thermodynamic environment will likely be a modulating factor in overall storm intensity. Strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth through the evening hours with an associated threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore/Darrow.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough/vorticity maximum settling into the southern/central High Plains. This feature is expected to stall and weaken over the Plains over the next 24 hours with a gradual abatement of mid-level flow. To the north, a pronounced mid-level wave is apparent over the Canadian Rockies/Prairies. This feature will continue southeastward into the northern Plains and upper Mississippi River Valley through tonight. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be attendant to these mid-level features. ...Southern High Plains... 05z surface observations across the southern Plains reveal a composite frontal zone/outflow boundary draped from far northeast NM through the TX/OK Panhandles and roughly along the OK/KS border. This boundary will likely be displaced southward as a result of early-morning convection, though precisely where this boundary resides by peak heating is somewhat uncertain. Regardless, thunderstorm development along this boundary is expected by late afternoon/early evening. To the south of this boundary, easterly winds on the northern periphery of a weak surface low over the Permian Basin will maintain an upslope flow regime along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento, Sandia Manzano, and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Modest westerly mid-level flow atop easterly low-level winds should yield sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized storms, including a supercell or two. With time, upscale growth and/or merging with additional convection developing along the surface boundary will promote an increased threat for severe gusts through early evening. While convection is expected northeastward along much of the boundary from central OK into adjacent portions of KS/MO, weaker mid-level winds with eastward extent casts doubt on the potential for a robust severe threat (aside from occasional strong wet downbursts). ...Red River Valley of the North... Modest surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Canadian Prairies over the next 24 hours as the mid-level wave approaches the international border. An attendant cold front is forecast to spread across the northern Plains through late afternoon and will impinge on a plume of seasonal low-level moisture. While mid-level lapse rates will remain modest (around 6-7 C/km), adequate buoyancy should be in place for deep convection. 30-40 knot mid-level flow should provide sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storms, though the marginal thermodynamic environment will likely be a modulating factor in overall storm intensity. Strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth through the evening hours with an associated threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore/Darrow.. 08/11/2025 Read more

MD 1927 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586... FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1927 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Areas affected...Southwest/south-central KS into northwest/north-central OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586... Valid 110408Z - 110545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586 continues. SUMMARY...The severe-wind threat may increase late tonight, along with a continued threat for isolated hail. Watch issuance downstream of WW 586 may be needed. DISCUSSION...The remnant of an earlier storm cluster across southeast CO (and a related midlevel vorticity maximum) is in the process of intercepting a cluster of supercells across southwest KS late this evening. This interaction, combined with a gradually increasing low-level jet and easterly flow near/north of a remnant boundary, could lead to upscale growth and development of a forward-propagating MCS. Should this occur, the severe-wind threat (including potential for gusts near or above 75 mph) would increase into the early overnight hours. Strong buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear will also continue to support occasional supercells, with a threat of hail and possibly a brief tornado. Farther east, a storm cluster across north-central OK may continue to backbuild, as new cells continue to form to the cool side of a westward-moving outflow. Effective shear is this region is somewhat weaker (generally 25-30 kt), but sufficient for occasional organized cells in the presence of steep midlevel lapse rates and strong buoyancy. Hail and locally damaging wind will remain a threat with the strongest cells in this cluster. The westward-moving outflow from the northern OK cluster will eventually impinge upon the upscale-growing cluster across southwest KS, and potentially result in some weakening overnight. However, before any such weakening occurs, an organized severe-wind threat may spread downstream of WW 586, potentially resulting in new watch issuance. ..Dean/Guyer.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37920129 38310077 38209895 38179795 37829731 37149683 36629699 36519768 36509819 36499922 36610002 36680089 36840113 37010146 37920129 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-015-019-033-035-047-049-073-077-079-095-097-125-145-151- 155-173-185-191-110640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COMANCHE COWLEY EDWARDS ELK GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA MONTGOMERY PAWNEE PRATT RENO SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER OKC003-045-047-053-059-071-093-103-105-113-117-147-151-153- 110640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT HARPER KAY MAJOR NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE WASHINGTON WOODS WOODWARD Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E DHT TO 30 WSW GUY TO 20 ESE GUY TO 25 S GCK TO 50 N GCK TO 25 NNW MCK. ..LEITMAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-039-057-063-065-069-083-101-119-135-137-179-195-110640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DECATUR FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRAY HODGEMAN LANE MEADE NESS NORTON SHERIDAN TREGO NEC145-110640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RED WILLOW OKC007-110640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0587 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927 ..DEAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-039-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-109- 119-129-135-137-153-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-195-199-203- 110540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DECATUR FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON NESS NORTON RAWLINS SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS THOMAS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA NEC087-145-110540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1926 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 585... FOR EASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1926 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0829 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Northeast New Mexico Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 585... Valid 110129Z - 110330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 585 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk continues. DISCUSSION...Scattered robust convection persists across the plains of eastern CO into northeast NM, supported in part by favorable upslope boundary-layer flow. Southwestern flank of western U.S. trough appears to be aiding this activity as large-scale ascent is spreading into this region. Latest diagnostic data suggests substantial buoyancy persists ahead of this convection, thus longevity is anticipated with these storms as they propagate downstream toward western KS and portions of the OK/northern TX Panhandle region. Hail remains the primary concern, though damaging winds may become more common along the leading edge of more organized MCS clusters. ..Darrow.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 36740503 40900506 40910219 36740234 36740503 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-039-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-109- 119-129-135-137-153-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-195-199-203- 110340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DECATUR FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON NESS NORTON RAWLINS SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS THOMAS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA NEC087-145-110340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-039-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-109- 119-129-135-137-153-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-195-199-203- 110340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DECATUR FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON NESS NORTON RAWLINS SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS THOMAS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA NEC087-145-110340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0586 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ...Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ...Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ...Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ...Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ...Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ...Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ...Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ...Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ...Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ...Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ...Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ...Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ...Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ...Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 Read more