Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from MT into the northern Plains, with primary upper low well to the north. A surface trough and cold front should push eastward across the Dakotas as well, and extend roughly from MN into NE by Friday/D5 morning. Model spread is high regarding the amount of moisture return and instability, with some models likely over-estimating real instability. In any case, storms appear most likely from ND into northern MN, beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. As such, a 15% severe area has been introduced. This wave will progress east/northeastward on Friday/D5, with a front trailing southwestward perhaps from Lake Superior across WI/MN and toward NE. A moist and unstable air mass will remain near and south of any such boundary, but the position of said boundary may depend on storms from the previous night, or possibly a continuation of such storms. Predictability is therefore low on Friday/D5. Beyond this time frame, it appears the storm track will shift northward into Canada, with upper ridging over much of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from MT into the northern Plains, with primary upper low well to the north. A surface trough and cold front should push eastward across the Dakotas as well, and extend roughly from MN into NE by Friday/D5 morning. Model spread is high regarding the amount of moisture return and instability, with some models likely over-estimating real instability. In any case, storms appear most likely from ND into northern MN, beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. As such, a 15% severe area has been introduced. This wave will progress east/northeastward on Friday/D5, with a front trailing southwestward perhaps from Lake Superior across WI/MN and toward NE. A moist and unstable air mass will remain near and south of any such boundary, but the position of said boundary may depend on storms from the previous night, or possibly a continuation of such storms. Predictability is therefore low on Friday/D5. Beyond this time frame, it appears the storm track will shift northward into Canada, with upper ridging over much of the CONUS. Read more

MD 1928 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1928 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern KS into northern OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587... Valid 110743Z - 110915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts remain possible as storms shift east across southern KS and northern OK the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A well-organized bowing MCS will continue shifting east the next few hours. The downstream airmass is modestly unstable, with latest mesoanalysis data indicating around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Vertical shear also will remain somewhat modest, but sufficient for organized convection, at least in the short term. Measured severe gusts in southern KS over the past hour have been in the 60-70 mph range, and this may persist another 1-2 hours given a well defined rear-inflow jet and mature bowing MCS. With time, gradual weakening is expected across southeast KS/northeast OK where earlier and ongoing precipitation ahead of the MCS will likely limit downstream severe, especially east of the I-35 corridor. ..Leitman.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38359887 38449718 38069608 36689599 36209620 36169874 36369934 37599944 38359887 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW AVK TO 25 WSW P28 TO 25 E P28 TO 25 SSW HUT TO 35 NW HUT. ..LEITMAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-015-019-035-049-073-077-079-095-125-155-173-191-110940- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN MONTGOMERY RENO SEDGWICK SUMNER OKC003-047-053-071-093-103-105-113-117-147-151-110940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GARFIELD GRANT KAY MAJOR NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE WASHINGTON WOODS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DDC TO 25 WNW P28 TO 30 S RSL. ..LEITMAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-015-019-033-035-049-073-077-079-095-125-151-155-173-185- 191-110840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COMANCHE COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN MONTGOMERY PRATT RENO SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER OKC003-045-047-053-059-071-093-103-105-113-117-147-151-153- 110840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT HARPER KAY MAJOR NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE WASHINGTON WOODS WOODWARD Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Dakotas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper trough will move across eastern Canada on Wednesday with rising heights over the Great Lakes and a temporary upper ridge over the Plains. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest and move into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the mid to upper MS Valley and Great Lakes in the wake of the ejecting Canadian wave. West of there, low pressure will develop over the northern High Plains in advance of the developing northwestern trough. Southerly winds will increase across the northern Plains as a result of this pressure gradient, with moisture return commencing. Despite the initially meager moisture, lapse rates will be steep by late in the day, and scattered storms are expected to develop near the MT/ND border around 00Z. Increasing winds aloft combined with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and veering winds with height suggest a few cells producing hail will spread east across the Dakotas. An increasing nocturnal low-level jet and eventual outflow could also yield bowing structures with strong gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Dakotas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper trough will move across eastern Canada on Wednesday with rising heights over the Great Lakes and a temporary upper ridge over the Plains. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest and move into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the mid to upper MS Valley and Great Lakes in the wake of the ejecting Canadian wave. West of there, low pressure will develop over the northern High Plains in advance of the developing northwestern trough. Southerly winds will increase across the northern Plains as a result of this pressure gradient, with moisture return commencing. Despite the initially meager moisture, lapse rates will be steep by late in the day, and scattered storms are expected to develop near the MT/ND border around 00Z. Increasing winds aloft combined with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and veering winds with height suggest a few cells producing hail will spread east across the Dakotas. An increasing nocturnal low-level jet and eventual outflow could also yield bowing structures with strong gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Dakotas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper trough will move across eastern Canada on Wednesday with rising heights over the Great Lakes and a temporary upper ridge over the Plains. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest and move into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the mid to upper MS Valley and Great Lakes in the wake of the ejecting Canadian wave. West of there, low pressure will develop over the northern High Plains in advance of the developing northwestern trough. Southerly winds will increase across the northern Plains as a result of this pressure gradient, with moisture return commencing. Despite the initially meager moisture, lapse rates will be steep by late in the day, and scattered storms are expected to develop near the MT/ND border around 00Z. Increasing winds aloft combined with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and veering winds with height suggest a few cells producing hail will spread east across the Dakotas. An increasing nocturnal low-level jet and eventual outflow could also yield bowing structures with strong gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Dakotas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper trough will move across eastern Canada on Wednesday with rising heights over the Great Lakes and a temporary upper ridge over the Plains. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest and move into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the mid to upper MS Valley and Great Lakes in the wake of the ejecting Canadian wave. West of there, low pressure will develop over the northern High Plains in advance of the developing northwestern trough. Southerly winds will increase across the northern Plains as a result of this pressure gradient, with moisture return commencing. Despite the initially meager moisture, lapse rates will be steep by late in the day, and scattered storms are expected to develop near the MT/ND border around 00Z. Increasing winds aloft combined with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and veering winds with height suggest a few cells producing hail will spread east across the Dakotas. An increasing nocturnal low-level jet and eventual outflow could also yield bowing structures with strong gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Dakotas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper trough will move across eastern Canada on Wednesday with rising heights over the Great Lakes and a temporary upper ridge over the Plains. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest and move into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the mid to upper MS Valley and Great Lakes in the wake of the ejecting Canadian wave. West of there, low pressure will develop over the northern High Plains in advance of the developing northwestern trough. Southerly winds will increase across the northern Plains as a result of this pressure gradient, with moisture return commencing. Despite the initially meager moisture, lapse rates will be steep by late in the day, and scattered storms are expected to develop near the MT/ND border around 00Z. Increasing winds aloft combined with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and veering winds with height suggest a few cells producing hail will spread east across the Dakotas. An increasing nocturnal low-level jet and eventual outflow could also yield bowing structures with strong gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Dakotas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper trough will move across eastern Canada on Wednesday with rising heights over the Great Lakes and a temporary upper ridge over the Plains. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest and move into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the mid to upper MS Valley and Great Lakes in the wake of the ejecting Canadian wave. West of there, low pressure will develop over the northern High Plains in advance of the developing northwestern trough. Southerly winds will increase across the northern Plains as a result of this pressure gradient, with moisture return commencing. Despite the initially meager moisture, lapse rates will be steep by late in the day, and scattered storms are expected to develop near the MT/ND border around 00Z. Increasing winds aloft combined with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and veering winds with height suggest a few cells producing hail will spread east across the Dakotas. An increasing nocturnal low-level jet and eventual outflow could also yield bowing structures with strong gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Dakotas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper trough will move across eastern Canada on Wednesday with rising heights over the Great Lakes and a temporary upper ridge over the Plains. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest and move into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the mid to upper MS Valley and Great Lakes in the wake of the ejecting Canadian wave. West of there, low pressure will develop over the northern High Plains in advance of the developing northwestern trough. Southerly winds will increase across the northern Plains as a result of this pressure gradient, with moisture return commencing. Despite the initially meager moisture, lapse rates will be steep by late in the day, and scattered storms are expected to develop near the MT/ND border around 00Z. Increasing winds aloft combined with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and veering winds with height suggest a few cells producing hail will spread east across the Dakotas. An increasing nocturnal low-level jet and eventual outflow could also yield bowing structures with strong gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Dakotas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper trough will move across eastern Canada on Wednesday with rising heights over the Great Lakes and a temporary upper ridge over the Plains. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest and move into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the mid to upper MS Valley and Great Lakes in the wake of the ejecting Canadian wave. West of there, low pressure will develop over the northern High Plains in advance of the developing northwestern trough. Southerly winds will increase across the northern Plains as a result of this pressure gradient, with moisture return commencing. Despite the initially meager moisture, lapse rates will be steep by late in the day, and scattered storms are expected to develop near the MT/ND border around 00Z. Increasing winds aloft combined with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and veering winds with height suggest a few cells producing hail will spread east across the Dakotas. An increasing nocturnal low-level jet and eventual outflow could also yield bowing structures with strong gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Dakotas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper trough will move across eastern Canada on Wednesday with rising heights over the Great Lakes and a temporary upper ridge over the Plains. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest and move into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the mid to upper MS Valley and Great Lakes in the wake of the ejecting Canadian wave. West of there, low pressure will develop over the northern High Plains in advance of the developing northwestern trough. Southerly winds will increase across the northern Plains as a result of this pressure gradient, with moisture return commencing. Despite the initially meager moisture, lapse rates will be steep by late in the day, and scattered storms are expected to develop near the MT/ND border around 00Z. Increasing winds aloft combined with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and veering winds with height suggest a few cells producing hail will spread east across the Dakotas. An increasing nocturnal low-level jet and eventual outflow could also yield bowing structures with strong gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Dakotas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper trough will move across eastern Canada on Wednesday with rising heights over the Great Lakes and a temporary upper ridge over the Plains. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest and move into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the mid to upper MS Valley and Great Lakes in the wake of the ejecting Canadian wave. West of there, low pressure will develop over the northern High Plains in advance of the developing northwestern trough. Southerly winds will increase across the northern Plains as a result of this pressure gradient, with moisture return commencing. Despite the initially meager moisture, lapse rates will be steep by late in the day, and scattered storms are expected to develop near the MT/ND border around 00Z. Increasing winds aloft combined with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and veering winds with height suggest a few cells producing hail will spread east across the Dakotas. An increasing nocturnal low-level jet and eventual outflow could also yield bowing structures with strong gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of the Dakotas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper trough will move across eastern Canada on Wednesday with rising heights over the Great Lakes and a temporary upper ridge over the Plains. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest and move into the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the mid to upper MS Valley and Great Lakes in the wake of the ejecting Canadian wave. West of there, low pressure will develop over the northern High Plains in advance of the developing northwestern trough. Southerly winds will increase across the northern Plains as a result of this pressure gradient, with moisture return commencing. Despite the initially meager moisture, lapse rates will be steep by late in the day, and scattered storms are expected to develop near the MT/ND border around 00Z. Increasing winds aloft combined with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and veering winds with height suggest a few cells producing hail will spread east across the Dakotas. An increasing nocturnal low-level jet and eventual outflow could also yield bowing structures with strong gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern for Tuesday across the country. Latest forecast guidance hints that a deeply-mixed, but adequately buoyant, environment will remain in place across central AZ on the northern fringe of deeper monsoonal moisture. Forcing for ascent will be fairly weak and largely driven by orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim. However, several deterministic CAM and recent HREF guidance hints at the potential for at least a few thunderstorms. This thermodynamic environment has yielded a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms over the past 24 hours, so a similar combination appears probable for Tuesday. Fine fuels largely remain dry across the region, and recent lightning-caused fires hint that the fuel environment should support at least some fire starts. ...Pacific Northwest... A weak mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. While flow aloft will be fairly modest, the zonal flow over the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will likely induce a downslope flow regime within an antecedent dry environment with receptive fuels. Ensemble support was too limited to warrant additional highlights, but localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible across far northwest NV, eastern OR, and southern WA Tuesday afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern for Tuesday across the country. Latest forecast guidance hints that a deeply-mixed, but adequately buoyant, environment will remain in place across central AZ on the northern fringe of deeper monsoonal moisture. Forcing for ascent will be fairly weak and largely driven by orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim. However, several deterministic CAM and recent HREF guidance hints at the potential for at least a few thunderstorms. This thermodynamic environment has yielded a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms over the past 24 hours, so a similar combination appears probable for Tuesday. Fine fuels largely remain dry across the region, and recent lightning-caused fires hint that the fuel environment should support at least some fire starts. ...Pacific Northwest... A weak mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. While flow aloft will be fairly modest, the zonal flow over the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will likely induce a downslope flow regime within an antecedent dry environment with receptive fuels. Ensemble support was too limited to warrant additional highlights, but localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible across far northwest NV, eastern OR, and southern WA Tuesday afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern for Tuesday across the country. Latest forecast guidance hints that a deeply-mixed, but adequately buoyant, environment will remain in place across central AZ on the northern fringe of deeper monsoonal moisture. Forcing for ascent will be fairly weak and largely driven by orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim. However, several deterministic CAM and recent HREF guidance hints at the potential for at least a few thunderstorms. This thermodynamic environment has yielded a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms over the past 24 hours, so a similar combination appears probable for Tuesday. Fine fuels largely remain dry across the region, and recent lightning-caused fires hint that the fuel environment should support at least some fire starts. ...Pacific Northwest... A weak mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. While flow aloft will be fairly modest, the zonal flow over the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will likely induce a downslope flow regime within an antecedent dry environment with receptive fuels. Ensemble support was too limited to warrant additional highlights, but localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible across far northwest NV, eastern OR, and southern WA Tuesday afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern for Tuesday across the country. Latest forecast guidance hints that a deeply-mixed, but adequately buoyant, environment will remain in place across central AZ on the northern fringe of deeper monsoonal moisture. Forcing for ascent will be fairly weak and largely driven by orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim. However, several deterministic CAM and recent HREF guidance hints at the potential for at least a few thunderstorms. This thermodynamic environment has yielded a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms over the past 24 hours, so a similar combination appears probable for Tuesday. Fine fuels largely remain dry across the region, and recent lightning-caused fires hint that the fuel environment should support at least some fire starts. ...Pacific Northwest... A weak mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. While flow aloft will be fairly modest, the zonal flow over the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will likely induce a downslope flow regime within an antecedent dry environment with receptive fuels. Ensemble support was too limited to warrant additional highlights, but localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible across far northwest NV, eastern OR, and southern WA Tuesday afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more