Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

MD 0244 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL WI...SOUTHERN MI UPPER PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0244 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...Central WI...southern MI Upper Peninsula Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 191717Z - 192015Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow, with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, will continue and expand northeast across the discussion area this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Upper-level low pressure over northeast KS will continue moving steadily east as an accompanying surface low moves from northern MO into northern IL by late afternoon. As surface temperatures cool, snow will expand in coverage in response to increasing large-scale ascent and spread northeast through late afternoon. Intensifying frontogenetic forcing within the 850-700 mb layer will contribute to snowfall rates of one inch per hour becoming widespread, and weak elevated buoyancy/embedded convective elements will result in areas of locally higher rates of up to 2 inches per hour. As the surface low moves east-northeast, strong/gusty north to northeast winds of 30 to 45 mph with higher gusts will result in areas of whiteout conditions. ..Bunting.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44879176 45958887 45948825 45868769 45548739 45218731 44858762 44588854 44408918 44069019 43859097 43959155 44229180 44429185 44679185 44879176 Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE BRL TO 30 SE MLI TO 40 E MLI. ..KERR..03/19/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-011-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-051- 053-057-063-075-079-091-093-095-099-101-105-107-113-115-121-123- 125-129-135-139-143-147-155-159-167-173-175-179-183-197-203- 192040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND BUREAU CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FORD FULTON GRUNDY IROQUOIS JASPER KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LA SALLE LAWRENCE LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCLEAN MACON MARION MARSHALL MASON MENARD MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE PEORIA PIATT PUTNAM RICHLAND SANGAMON SHELBY STARK TAZEWELL VERMILION WILL WOODFORD Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... A few updates were needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. The Critical area across western New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle was expanded eastward to include more of the Texas Panhandle and into portions of central New Mexico. This was in alignment with recent model guidance which brings stronger winds across these region than previously forecast. Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated further across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles south into southwestern Texas in line with these trends as well. A Critical area was added across the eastern Florida Peninsula with this outlook. Across this region, relative humidity reductions to 25-30 percent will overlap sustained westerly flow around 10-15 mph. A broad Elevated region was included from the central peninsula eastward to the coast. The best overlap of Critical conditions looks to be across the eastern peninsula from the Orlando Metro south to the Gold Coast and Miami Metro. ..Thornton.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday for parts of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure is expected to build into the south-central CONUS through the day Thursday in the wake of the strong surface low currently over the Plains and its attendant cold front. Meanwhile aloft, a relatively low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing from the northern to central High Plains. West/southwesterly downslope winds are expected to develop to the west of the lee trough, resulting in dry/windy conditions from eastern MT and WY southward into NM and southwest TX. Downslope warming/drying will support RH values in the teens across much of the High Plains with the lowest RH (5-15%) expected across eastern NM given antecedent dry conditions. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph appear likely across northeastern NM where fuels remain dry and limited precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours. Weaker winds with southward extent will limit the potential for critical conditions, but winds in the between 15-20 mph will still support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Further north into the central High Plains, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are likely, but ongoing rain/snow will likely mitigate fuel dryness for the next few days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... A few updates were needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. The Critical area across western New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle was expanded eastward to include more of the Texas Panhandle and into portions of central New Mexico. This was in alignment with recent model guidance which brings stronger winds across these region than previously forecast. Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated further across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles south into southwestern Texas in line with these trends as well. A Critical area was added across the eastern Florida Peninsula with this outlook. Across this region, relative humidity reductions to 25-30 percent will overlap sustained westerly flow around 10-15 mph. A broad Elevated region was included from the central peninsula eastward to the coast. The best overlap of Critical conditions looks to be across the eastern peninsula from the Orlando Metro south to the Gold Coast and Miami Metro. ..Thornton.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday for parts of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure is expected to build into the south-central CONUS through the day Thursday in the wake of the strong surface low currently over the Plains and its attendant cold front. Meanwhile aloft, a relatively low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing from the northern to central High Plains. West/southwesterly downslope winds are expected to develop to the west of the lee trough, resulting in dry/windy conditions from eastern MT and WY southward into NM and southwest TX. Downslope warming/drying will support RH values in the teens across much of the High Plains with the lowest RH (5-15%) expected across eastern NM given antecedent dry conditions. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph appear likely across northeastern NM where fuels remain dry and limited precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours. Weaker winds with southward extent will limit the potential for critical conditions, but winds in the between 15-20 mph will still support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Further north into the central High Plains, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are likely, but ongoing rain/snow will likely mitigate fuel dryness for the next few days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more