Severe Storms

WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MKL TO 15 WSW OWB TO 25 NNE EVV TO 45 SSE MTO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248 ..MOORE..03/20/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-125-143-147-173-175-200140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY PIKE SCOTT SPENCER WARRICK WASHINGTON KYC003-009-027-029-031-047-059-061-085-091-093-099-103-107-111- 123-141-149-163-177-183-185-213-219-221-223-227-200140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER CHRISTIAN DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAYSON HANCOCK HARDIN HART HENRY HOPKINS JEFFERSON Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..03/20/25 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-031-033-035-039-041- 047-049-053-057-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-085-087-091- 093-095-097-099-103-105-109-113-115-131-135-137-139-141-145-149- 151-155-159-161-169-177-179-181-183-200140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BARTHOLOMEW BLACKFORD BOONE BROWN CARROLL CASS CLINTON DEARBORN DECATUR DE KALB DELAWARE ELKHART FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GRANT HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY HOWARD HUNTINGTON JACKSON JAY JENNINGS JOHNSON KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARSHALL MIAMI MONROE MORGAN NOBLE OHIO PULASKI RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH ST. JOSEPH SHELBY STARKE STEUBEN SWITZERLAND TIPTON UNION WABASH WAYNE WELLS Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW EVV TO 15 SW DNV TO 45 WNW VPZ. ..MOORE..03/20/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC023-033-045-075-101-183-200140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD EDGAR IROQUOIS LAWRENCE VERMILION INC007-021-027-045-055-083-101-107-111-119-121-133-153-157-165- 167-171-200140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CLAY DAVIESS FOUNTAIN GREENE KNOX MARTIN MONTGOMERY NEWTON OWEN PARKE PUTNAM SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE VERMILLION VIGO WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

MD 0248 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 58... FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0248 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of the lower Ohio River Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 58... Valid 192224Z - 200030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 58 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across southeast Illinois into western Kentucky. These storms are expected to intensify and pose a severe threat as they move eastward across the lower Ohio River Valley over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Very gradually deepening convection, cooling cloud-top temperatures, and occasional lightning flashes have been noted over the past 30-60 minutes across the lower OH River Valley. Despite the slow convective evolution thus far, a combination of steadily improving low-level moisture (in the form of mid 50s dewpoints) and increasing deep-layer ascent within the left-exit region of the mid-level jet should lead to a gradual increase in storm coverage over the next 1-2 hours across southern IN and western KY. Buoyancy within the narrow warm sector will remain fairly meager (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE), but low to mid-level winds have been increasing over the past hour with the approach of the mid-level jet, which is bolstering low to mid-level wind shear per regional VWPs. This favorable kinematic profile should compensate for the limited buoyancy and support organized convection downstream from where cells are currently developing. Given nearly 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH and 50-60 knot flow sampled within the lowest 1-2 km, severe gusts and tornadoes should remain the primary hazard. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 36858879 37378858 38198811 38398792 38508771 38588640 38528602 38358581 37938585 37668601 37368625 37138646 37058674 36698840 36728869 36788878 36858879 Read more

WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE DYR TO 25 NNE SLO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248 ..MOORE..03/19/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC047-059-065-069-151-165-185-191-193-200040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDWARDS GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN POPE SALINE WABASH WAYNE WHITE INC019-025-037-043-051-061-077-117-123-125-129-143-147-163-173- 175-200040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY PIKE POSEY SCOTT SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK WASHINGTON Read more

WW 58 TORNADO IL IN KY 192015Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 58 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A band of severe thunderstorms is expected to move eastward across the watch area from late afternoon into this evening. These storms may produce a few tornadoes, scattered wind damage, and hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west southwest of Evansville IN to 20 miles south of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Leitman Read more

MD 0249 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0249 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...Western and middle Tennessee into northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192334Z - 200130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected between 7-9 PM CDT across western Tennessee and northern to central Mississippi with a downstream risk for severe hail and damaging winds. The risk is expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery shows gradually deepening cumulus along and just ahead of a diffuse dryline/Pacific front from western TN southward into MS. This trend is expected to continue as mid-level temperatures continue to cool with the eastward progression of the primary trough axis, resulting in improving 700-500 mb lapse rates that will be more favorable for sustained convection. This trend is already being observed further north across the lower OH River Valley, suggesting that thunderstorm development is becoming more likely for areas further south. Modest surface moisture (mid 50s dewpoints) will continue to limit overall buoyancy values (MLCAPE should be maximized around 500-750 J/kg), but wind fields over the region are supporting elongated hodographs that will promote organization of the more intense updrafts. Weak off-boundary storm motions/deep-layer shear vectors suggest that a combination of semi-discrete cells and clusters is likely later this evening as storms move into middle TN and northwest AL. Given the convective environment and trends in latest CAM guidance, a few of the more intense cells/clusters may pose a severe hail/wind threat through the late evening. ..Moore/Hart.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32909031 35998919 36458887 36538846 36628750 36588700 36448652 36178623 35758610 35048619 34208674 33358759 32638848 32468899 32458937 32478982 32549002 32679022 32909031 Read more

MD 0248 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 58... FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0248 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of the lower Ohio River Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 58... Valid 192224Z - 200030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 58 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across southeast Illinois into western Kentucky. These storms are expected to intensify and pose a severe threat as they move eastward across the lower Ohio River Valley over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Very gradually deepening convection, cooling cloud-top temperatures, and occasional lightning flashes have been noted over the past 30-60 minutes across the lower OH River Valley. Despite the slow convective evolution thus far, a combination of steadily improving low-level moisture (in the form of mid 50s dewpoints) and increasing deep-layer ascent within the left-exit region of the mid-level jet should lead to a gradual increase in storm coverage over the next 1-2 hours across southern IN and western KY. Buoyancy within the narrow warm sector will remain fairly meager (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE), but low to mid-level winds have been increasing over the past hour with the approach of the mid-level jet, which is bolstering low to mid-level wind shear per regional VWPs. This favorable kinematic profile should compensate for the limited buoyancy and support organized convection downstream from where cells are currently developing. Given nearly 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH and 50-60 knot flow sampled within the lowest 1-2 km, severe gusts and tornadoes should remain the primary hazard. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 36858879 37378858 38198811 38398792 38508771 38588640 38528602 38358581 37938585 37668601 37368625 37138646 37058674 36698840 36728869 36788878 36858879 Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW EVV TO 30 NNE BMI TO 35 WNW VPZ. ..MOORE..03/19/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-023-029-033-035-041-045-053-075-079-091-101-105-159-183- 200040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CLARK COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR FORD IROQUOIS JASPER KANKAKEE LAWRENCE LIVINGSTON RICHLAND VERMILION INC007-021-027-045-055-083-101-107-111-119-121-133-153-157-165- 167-171-200040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CLAY DAVIESS FOUNTAIN GREENE KNOX MARTIN MONTGOMERY NEWTON OWEN PARKE PUTNAM SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE VERMILLION VIGO WARREN Read more

WW 57 TORNADO IA IL IN 191715Z - 200200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 57 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Eastern Iowa Northern and Central Illinois Western Indiana * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop northeast through the early evening. These storms may produce a few tornadoes, damaging gusts, and hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Marseilles IL to 60 miles east of Salem IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Leitman Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0059 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0059 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0247 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 57... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0247 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...parts of eastern Illinois and into western Indiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 57... Valid 192156Z - 192330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 57 continues. SUMMARY...Severe/isolated tornado risk continues across Tornado Watch 57, with the greatest short-term tornado potential appearing most likely over east-central Illinois and western Indiana. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows scattered strong/locally severe storms in a north-south Zone centered over the eastern half of Illinois. Within this zone, modest CAPE but strong flow aloft will continue to support organized storms, and with dewpoints over the northern half of the watch in the low 50s, strong/damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary risk. Over southeastern portions of the watch -- i.e. east-central Illinois and into western Indiana -- slightly richer low-level moisture is evident, with mid 50s dewpoints prevalent. Here too, more substantial low-level veering with height is evident (surface to 1 KM shear 35 kt at this time is indicated at IND). These two factors suggest that greatest tornado risk within the WW may exist across this portion of the watch over the next 1 to 2 hours. With time, overall severe risk is forecast to shift gradually eastward in tandem with progression of the storms and associated cold front. New WW -- or WW extensions -- will likely need to be considered into more of Indiana over the next couple of hours. ..Goss.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 39378817 40248812 40818712 40668631 39798577 38998594 38498729 38658853 39378817 Read more

WW 59 SEVERE TSTM IN KY MI OH LM 192255Z - 200500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 59 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Indiana North Central Kentucky Southern Lower Michigan Western Ohio Lake Michigan * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 555 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over eastern Illinois will track rapidly northeastward through the evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of South Bend IN to 60 miles east southeast of Bloomington IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57...WW 58... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE SLO TO 25 NNE SLO TO 25 SE SPI TO 20 NNE BMI TO 40 ENE MMO. ..GOSS..03/19/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-053-075-079-091- 101-105-113-115-139-147-159-173-183-197-192340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FORD IROQUOIS JASPER KANKAKEE LAWRENCE LIVINGSTON MCLEAN MACON MOULTRIE PIATT RICHLAND SHELBY VERMILION WILL INC007-021-027-045-055-083-101-107-111-119-121-133-153-157-165- 167-171-192340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CLAY DAVIESS FOUNTAIN GREENE KNOX Read more

WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..03/19/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC047-059-065-069-081-151-165-185-191-193-192340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDWARDS GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JEFFERSON POPE SALINE WABASH WAYNE WHITE INC019-025-037-043-051-061-117-123-125-129-143-147-163-173-175- 192340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON HARRISON ORANGE PERRY PIKE POSEY SCOTT SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK WASHINGTON KYC003-009-027-029-031-033-035-047-055-059-061-085-091-093-099- 101-107-111-123-139-141-143-149-157-163-177-183-185-213-219-221- Read more

MD 0246 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 57... FOR EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...eastern Illinois into far western Indiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 57... Valid 192037Z - 192230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 57 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development is likely to continue to increase during the next few hours, including the potential for supercells with tornadoes across much of east central Illinois into the Indiana state border vicinity through 5-7 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Aided by stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, within the exit region of the intense mid-level jet nosing through the middle Mississippi Valley, an intensifying and evolving broken line of thunderstorms appears likely to spread across and east of the Interstate 55 corridor of central Illinois through 21-22Z. This is where 20Z surface observations indicate that rapid (2-hourly in excess of 4 mb) surface pressure falls are maximized, and lower 50s surface dew points are being maintained with perhaps some further increase ongoing farther east, into the vicinity of the Indiana state border vicinity. More discrete thunderstorms are now initiating farther south, between Taylorville and Salem, which are likely to continue rapidly moving north-northeastward within 50-60 kt south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. Rapid Refresh forecast soundings continue to suggest that this will coincide with enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs near/east of Kankakee, Champaign, Decatur vicinities, where south to southwesterly flow is forecast to intensify within the 850-700 mb layer through 22-00Z. And it still appears the low-level thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to supercell tornadoes, perhaps including a strong tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 41618831 41418744 38798741 38288815 38388861 40008935 41618831 Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE MVN TO 25 SE SPI TO 10 NNW BMI TO 25 SE RFD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247 ..MOORE..03/19/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-053-063-075-079- 091-093-101-105-113-115-139-147-159-173-183-197-192340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS JASPER KANKAKEE KENDALL LAWRENCE LIVINGSTON MCLEAN MACON MOULTRIE PIATT RICHLAND SHELBY VERMILION WILL INC007-021-027-045-055-083-101-107-111-119-121-133-153-157-165- 167-171-192340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0245 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0245 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern Illinois and Indiana...western Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191925Z - 192130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development east of the Mississippi River, into areas south of the Ohio River, appears increasingly possible by 5-7 PM CDT, if not a bit earlier. This may include the evolution of a broken line with embedded supercells, posing at least the risk for severe hail and wind. DISCUSSION...From around the Greater St. Louis area southward, convective development along the dryline still appears suppressed by mid-level subsidence and warming to the east and south of the intense cyclonic mid-level jet nosing through the middle Mississippi Valley. However, better low-level moisture return (characterized by mid 50s F surface dew points) is ongoing across the Missouri Bootheel and adjacent portions of western Kentucky through southern Illinois. As this continues, coincident with the eastward progression of the mid-level trough, it appears that mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling aloft may gradually overcome inhibition and support increasing thunderstorm development, perhaps into areas south of the Ohio River by early evening. Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate considerable strengthening and enlargement of the low-level hodographs around this same time, though perhaps with a tendency for the hodographs to trend more linear as thunderstorms finally initiate with the removal of the mid-level inhibition. Regardless, strong deep-layer shear will be supportive of organized convection, including supercells, with potential to produce at least severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Leitman.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 36788895 38078861 38888669 38518637 37378714 36618804 36788895 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Early in the extended period D3-5 (Friday-Sunday), breezy and dry conditions will be possible across the central and southern Plains. However, a much cooler air mass along with recent rain and snowfall across portions of the central Plains will help keep fire weather concerns low and mostly across the southern high Plains. After this period, an upper level high is expected to build in across the central US, with lighter winds but continued dry conditions across the southern Plains. ...D3 - Friday through D4 - Saturday, Southern High Plains... A surface low will develop across the central Plains on D3 - Friday, with Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The main upper-level trough has continued to show a more progressive track, with much cooler air filtering in across portions of eastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas behind the passing cold front. Some portion of this region has also seen recent rain and snowfall over the last 24-48 hours. This has led to removal of the 70 percent probabilities and shrinking of 40 percent probabilities. A secondary wave will move across the central Plains on D4 - Saturday with another surface low developing across eastern Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. 850 mb flow will strengthen with lee troughing, however, the main area of strongest flow aloft will stay north of the driest fuels. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle southward into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico. A 40 percent area was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more