Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across the northeastern Great Basin, though warm, dry, and windy conditions will likely develop across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. A slight uptick in fire activity over the past 24 hours across the Great Basin and northern Rockies confirms that receptive fuels remain in place across much of the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of mid-level moisture across the Great Basin ahead of a migratory upper trough moving into CA. This moisture plume supported isolated dry thunderstorms yesterday across the region, and will similarly foster 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE from central NV northeastward into portions of ID, WY, UT, and CO. Regional 00z soundings and recent GOES imagery are sampling PWAT values between 0.3 to 0.6 inch, which when combined with very dry boundary-layer conditions, will support dry thunderstorms. A combination of ascent ahead of the approaching wave, modest lift within the right-entrance region of a departing upper jet, and orographic ascent will support isolated thunderstorms across a broad swath of the region. Latest CAM guidance continues to show the potential for several smaller corridors of concentrated thunderstorms. Where exactly these corridors will emerge through the afternoon remains somewhat uncertain, but the general consensus is that areas of higher thunderstorm coverage are likely. The Isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been expanded to capture the reasonable envelope of dry thunderstorm potential with receptive fuels. Similarly, the Scattered dry thunderstorm risk area was adjusted to highlight the most probable corridors of greater thunderstorm coverage. ...Hot/Dry/Windy... Very dry conditions will prevail across the Great Basin region with another day of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. Surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching trough will promote breezy conditions with sustained winds around 15 mph across much of the eastern Great Basin into far western Colorado. Portions of the Snake River Plain in eastern ID, as well as the eastern slopes of the Bitterroot Mountains will see similar wind speeds within a modest downslope flow regime. Gusts between 20-25 mph will support transient critical fire weather conditions across both regions. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across the northeastern Great Basin, though warm, dry, and windy conditions will likely develop across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. A slight uptick in fire activity over the past 24 hours across the Great Basin and northern Rockies confirms that receptive fuels remain in place across much of the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of mid-level moisture across the Great Basin ahead of a migratory upper trough moving into CA. This moisture plume supported isolated dry thunderstorms yesterday across the region, and will similarly foster 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE from central NV northeastward into portions of ID, WY, UT, and CO. Regional 00z soundings and recent GOES imagery are sampling PWAT values between 0.3 to 0.6 inch, which when combined with very dry boundary-layer conditions, will support dry thunderstorms. A combination of ascent ahead of the approaching wave, modest lift within the right-entrance region of a departing upper jet, and orographic ascent will support isolated thunderstorms across a broad swath of the region. Latest CAM guidance continues to show the potential for several smaller corridors of concentrated thunderstorms. Where exactly these corridors will emerge through the afternoon remains somewhat uncertain, but the general consensus is that areas of higher thunderstorm coverage are likely. The Isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been expanded to capture the reasonable envelope of dry thunderstorm potential with receptive fuels. Similarly, the Scattered dry thunderstorm risk area was adjusted to highlight the most probable corridors of greater thunderstorm coverage. ...Hot/Dry/Windy... Very dry conditions will prevail across the Great Basin region with another day of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. Surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching trough will promote breezy conditions with sustained winds around 15 mph across much of the eastern Great Basin into far western Colorado. Portions of the Snake River Plain in eastern ID, as well as the eastern slopes of the Bitterroot Mountains will see similar wind speeds within a modest downslope flow regime. Gusts between 20-25 mph will support transient critical fire weather conditions across both regions. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across the northeastern Great Basin, though warm, dry, and windy conditions will likely develop across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. A slight uptick in fire activity over the past 24 hours across the Great Basin and northern Rockies confirms that receptive fuels remain in place across much of the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of mid-level moisture across the Great Basin ahead of a migratory upper trough moving into CA. This moisture plume supported isolated dry thunderstorms yesterday across the region, and will similarly foster 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE from central NV northeastward into portions of ID, WY, UT, and CO. Regional 00z soundings and recent GOES imagery are sampling PWAT values between 0.3 to 0.6 inch, which when combined with very dry boundary-layer conditions, will support dry thunderstorms. A combination of ascent ahead of the approaching wave, modest lift within the right-entrance region of a departing upper jet, and orographic ascent will support isolated thunderstorms across a broad swath of the region. Latest CAM guidance continues to show the potential for several smaller corridors of concentrated thunderstorms. Where exactly these corridors will emerge through the afternoon remains somewhat uncertain, but the general consensus is that areas of higher thunderstorm coverage are likely. The Isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been expanded to capture the reasonable envelope of dry thunderstorm potential with receptive fuels. Similarly, the Scattered dry thunderstorm risk area was adjusted to highlight the most probable corridors of greater thunderstorm coverage. ...Hot/Dry/Windy... Very dry conditions will prevail across the Great Basin region with another day of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. Surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching trough will promote breezy conditions with sustained winds around 15 mph across much of the eastern Great Basin into far western Colorado. Portions of the Snake River Plain in eastern ID, as well as the eastern slopes of the Bitterroot Mountains will see similar wind speeds within a modest downslope flow regime. Gusts between 20-25 mph will support transient critical fire weather conditions across both regions. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across the northeastern Great Basin, though warm, dry, and windy conditions will likely develop across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. A slight uptick in fire activity over the past 24 hours across the Great Basin and northern Rockies confirms that receptive fuels remain in place across much of the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of mid-level moisture across the Great Basin ahead of a migratory upper trough moving into CA. This moisture plume supported isolated dry thunderstorms yesterday across the region, and will similarly foster 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE from central NV northeastward into portions of ID, WY, UT, and CO. Regional 00z soundings and recent GOES imagery are sampling PWAT values between 0.3 to 0.6 inch, which when combined with very dry boundary-layer conditions, will support dry thunderstorms. A combination of ascent ahead of the approaching wave, modest lift within the right-entrance region of a departing upper jet, and orographic ascent will support isolated thunderstorms across a broad swath of the region. Latest CAM guidance continues to show the potential for several smaller corridors of concentrated thunderstorms. Where exactly these corridors will emerge through the afternoon remains somewhat uncertain, but the general consensus is that areas of higher thunderstorm coverage are likely. The Isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been expanded to capture the reasonable envelope of dry thunderstorm potential with receptive fuels. Similarly, the Scattered dry thunderstorm risk area was adjusted to highlight the most probable corridors of greater thunderstorm coverage. ...Hot/Dry/Windy... Very dry conditions will prevail across the Great Basin region with another day of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. Surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching trough will promote breezy conditions with sustained winds around 15 mph across much of the eastern Great Basin into far western Colorado. Portions of the Snake River Plain in eastern ID, as well as the eastern slopes of the Bitterroot Mountains will see similar wind speeds within a modest downslope flow regime. Gusts between 20-25 mph will support transient critical fire weather conditions across both regions. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across the northeastern Great Basin, though warm, dry, and windy conditions will likely develop across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. A slight uptick in fire activity over the past 24 hours across the Great Basin and northern Rockies confirms that receptive fuels remain in place across much of the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of mid-level moisture across the Great Basin ahead of a migratory upper trough moving into CA. This moisture plume supported isolated dry thunderstorms yesterday across the region, and will similarly foster 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE from central NV northeastward into portions of ID, WY, UT, and CO. Regional 00z soundings and recent GOES imagery are sampling PWAT values between 0.3 to 0.6 inch, which when combined with very dry boundary-layer conditions, will support dry thunderstorms. A combination of ascent ahead of the approaching wave, modest lift within the right-entrance region of a departing upper jet, and orographic ascent will support isolated thunderstorms across a broad swath of the region. Latest CAM guidance continues to show the potential for several smaller corridors of concentrated thunderstorms. Where exactly these corridors will emerge through the afternoon remains somewhat uncertain, but the general consensus is that areas of higher thunderstorm coverage are likely. The Isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been expanded to capture the reasonable envelope of dry thunderstorm potential with receptive fuels. Similarly, the Scattered dry thunderstorm risk area was adjusted to highlight the most probable corridors of greater thunderstorm coverage. ...Hot/Dry/Windy... Very dry conditions will prevail across the Great Basin region with another day of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. Surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching trough will promote breezy conditions with sustained winds around 15 mph across much of the eastern Great Basin into far western Colorado. Portions of the Snake River Plain in eastern ID, as well as the eastern slopes of the Bitterroot Mountains will see similar wind speeds within a modest downslope flow regime. Gusts between 20-25 mph will support transient critical fire weather conditions across both regions. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis...... An upper low will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay on Friday, with minor height rises over the northern Plains as the upper trough departs to north. An upper high will build over central Plains to lower MO Valley, while weak troughiness persists over the Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front from northern MN toward the ND/SD border will bring drying, but will stall late in the day. A large area of instability will develop over much of SD, MN, WI, IA and NE as dewpoints increase, and easterly surface winds will bring moisture westward across SD and into southeast MT and northeast WY. ...Eastern SD into MN and western WI... Storms are expected to form relatively early in the day in a warm advection regime with southwest 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. This regime may favor clusters of storms with localized severe gust potential. Modest shear could favor a few longer-lived storm cores producing hail as well. Overall predictability is low given the initiation regime and possibility of early day storms in the area. ...Black Hills and Vicinity... Substantial easterly low-level flow will develop during the day as winds back from northeast to east/southeast. This will push 60s dewpoints as far west as southeast MT/northeast WY, beneath 30+ kt midlevel westerly winds. This will result in elongated, straight hodographs favorable for cellular storms producing large hail. While storms may be quite isolated, hail could be damaging. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis...... An upper low will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay on Friday, with minor height rises over the northern Plains as the upper trough departs to north. An upper high will build over central Plains to lower MO Valley, while weak troughiness persists over the Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front from northern MN toward the ND/SD border will bring drying, but will stall late in the day. A large area of instability will develop over much of SD, MN, WI, IA and NE as dewpoints increase, and easterly surface winds will bring moisture westward across SD and into southeast MT and northeast WY. ...Eastern SD into MN and western WI... Storms are expected to form relatively early in the day in a warm advection regime with southwest 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. This regime may favor clusters of storms with localized severe gust potential. Modest shear could favor a few longer-lived storm cores producing hail as well. Overall predictability is low given the initiation regime and possibility of early day storms in the area. ...Black Hills and Vicinity... Substantial easterly low-level flow will develop during the day as winds back from northeast to east/southeast. This will push 60s dewpoints as far west as southeast MT/northeast WY, beneath 30+ kt midlevel westerly winds. This will result in elongated, straight hodographs favorable for cellular storms producing large hail. While storms may be quite isolated, hail could be damaging. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis...... An upper low will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay on Friday, with minor height rises over the northern Plains as the upper trough departs to north. An upper high will build over central Plains to lower MO Valley, while weak troughiness persists over the Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front from northern MN toward the ND/SD border will bring drying, but will stall late in the day. A large area of instability will develop over much of SD, MN, WI, IA and NE as dewpoints increase, and easterly surface winds will bring moisture westward across SD and into southeast MT and northeast WY. ...Eastern SD into MN and western WI... Storms are expected to form relatively early in the day in a warm advection regime with southwest 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. This regime may favor clusters of storms with localized severe gust potential. Modest shear could favor a few longer-lived storm cores producing hail as well. Overall predictability is low given the initiation regime and possibility of early day storms in the area. ...Black Hills and Vicinity... Substantial easterly low-level flow will develop during the day as winds back from northeast to east/southeast. This will push 60s dewpoints as far west as southeast MT/northeast WY, beneath 30+ kt midlevel westerly winds. This will result in elongated, straight hodographs favorable for cellular storms producing large hail. While storms may be quite isolated, hail could be damaging. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis...... An upper low will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay on Friday, with minor height rises over the northern Plains as the upper trough departs to north. An upper high will build over central Plains to lower MO Valley, while weak troughiness persists over the Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front from northern MN toward the ND/SD border will bring drying, but will stall late in the day. A large area of instability will develop over much of SD, MN, WI, IA and NE as dewpoints increase, and easterly surface winds will bring moisture westward across SD and into southeast MT and northeast WY. ...Eastern SD into MN and western WI... Storms are expected to form relatively early in the day in a warm advection regime with southwest 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. This regime may favor clusters of storms with localized severe gust potential. Modest shear could favor a few longer-lived storm cores producing hail as well. Overall predictability is low given the initiation regime and possibility of early day storms in the area. ...Black Hills and Vicinity... Substantial easterly low-level flow will develop during the day as winds back from northeast to east/southeast. This will push 60s dewpoints as far west as southeast MT/northeast WY, beneath 30+ kt midlevel westerly winds. This will result in elongated, straight hodographs favorable for cellular storms producing large hail. While storms may be quite isolated, hail could be damaging. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis...... An upper low will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay on Friday, with minor height rises over the northern Plains as the upper trough departs to north. An upper high will build over central Plains to lower MO Valley, while weak troughiness persists over the Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front from northern MN toward the ND/SD border will bring drying, but will stall late in the day. A large area of instability will develop over much of SD, MN, WI, IA and NE as dewpoints increase, and easterly surface winds will bring moisture westward across SD and into southeast MT and northeast WY. ...Eastern SD into MN and western WI... Storms are expected to form relatively early in the day in a warm advection regime with southwest 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. This regime may favor clusters of storms with localized severe gust potential. Modest shear could favor a few longer-lived storm cores producing hail as well. Overall predictability is low given the initiation regime and possibility of early day storms in the area. ...Black Hills and Vicinity... Substantial easterly low-level flow will develop during the day as winds back from northeast to east/southeast. This will push 60s dewpoints as far west as southeast MT/northeast WY, beneath 30+ kt midlevel westerly winds. This will result in elongated, straight hodographs favorable for cellular storms producing large hail. While storms may be quite isolated, hail could be damaging. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis...... An upper low will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay on Friday, with minor height rises over the northern Plains as the upper trough departs to north. An upper high will build over central Plains to lower MO Valley, while weak troughiness persists over the Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front from northern MN toward the ND/SD border will bring drying, but will stall late in the day. A large area of instability will develop over much of SD, MN, WI, IA and NE as dewpoints increase, and easterly surface winds will bring moisture westward across SD and into southeast MT and northeast WY. ...Eastern SD into MN and western WI... Storms are expected to form relatively early in the day in a warm advection regime with southwest 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. This regime may favor clusters of storms with localized severe gust potential. Modest shear could favor a few longer-lived storm cores producing hail as well. Overall predictability is low given the initiation regime and possibility of early day storms in the area. ...Black Hills and Vicinity... Substantial easterly low-level flow will develop during the day as winds back from northeast to east/southeast. This will push 60s dewpoints as far west as southeast MT/northeast WY, beneath 30+ kt midlevel westerly winds. This will result in elongated, straight hodographs favorable for cellular storms producing large hail. While storms may be quite isolated, hail could be damaging. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis...... An upper low will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay on Friday, with minor height rises over the northern Plains as the upper trough departs to north. An upper high will build over central Plains to lower MO Valley, while weak troughiness persists over the Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front from northern MN toward the ND/SD border will bring drying, but will stall late in the day. A large area of instability will develop over much of SD, MN, WI, IA and NE as dewpoints increase, and easterly surface winds will bring moisture westward across SD and into southeast MT and northeast WY. ...Eastern SD into MN and western WI... Storms are expected to form relatively early in the day in a warm advection regime with southwest 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. This regime may favor clusters of storms with localized severe gust potential. Modest shear could favor a few longer-lived storm cores producing hail as well. Overall predictability is low given the initiation regime and possibility of early day storms in the area. ...Black Hills and Vicinity... Substantial easterly low-level flow will develop during the day as winds back from northeast to east/southeast. This will push 60s dewpoints as far west as southeast MT/northeast WY, beneath 30+ kt midlevel westerly winds. This will result in elongated, straight hodographs favorable for cellular storms producing large hail. While storms may be quite isolated, hail could be damaging. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the north-central U.S. today and tonight. The first shortwave trough will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today. Near this feature, isolated severe storms will be possible along the eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass this afternoon from eastern Minnesota southward into northern Iowa. A second shortwave trough will move through Saskatchewan today, and into Manitoba tonight. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance eastward into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Convective initiation should take place near or just ahead of the front as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon or early evening. The more aggressive model solutions suggest that storms will develop in eastern North Dakota late this afternoon, with additional storms forming during the evening further south into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat will likely develop with some of these storms. Model forecasts along and near the instability axis early this evening suggest the strongest deep-layer shear will be in northeastern North Dakota near Grand Forks. RAP forecast soundings for this location at 00Z have MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with large hail, and potentially hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the strongest of updrafts. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if the favored storm mode transitions toward linear during the evening. Although an isolated severe threat may persist into the early overnight period, a capping inversion will strengthen and result in mainly elevated storms. Further south into southeastern North Dakota, the environment should support severe storms during the evening, but convective initiation is a bit less certain. Across much of South Dakota and central Nebraska, weaker deep-layer shear will be in place, which should help to marginalize any severe threat. ..Broyles/Moore.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the north-central U.S. today and tonight. The first shortwave trough will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today. Near this feature, isolated severe storms will be possible along the eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass this afternoon from eastern Minnesota southward into northern Iowa. A second shortwave trough will move through Saskatchewan today, and into Manitoba tonight. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance eastward into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Convective initiation should take place near or just ahead of the front as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon or early evening. The more aggressive model solutions suggest that storms will develop in eastern North Dakota late this afternoon, with additional storms forming during the evening further south into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat will likely develop with some of these storms. Model forecasts along and near the instability axis early this evening suggest the strongest deep-layer shear will be in northeastern North Dakota near Grand Forks. RAP forecast soundings for this location at 00Z have MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with large hail, and potentially hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the strongest of updrafts. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if the favored storm mode transitions toward linear during the evening. Although an isolated severe threat may persist into the early overnight period, a capping inversion will strengthen and result in mainly elevated storms. Further south into southeastern North Dakota, the environment should support severe storms during the evening, but convective initiation is a bit less certain. Across much of South Dakota and central Nebraska, weaker deep-layer shear will be in place, which should help to marginalize any severe threat. ..Broyles/Moore.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the north-central U.S. today and tonight. The first shortwave trough will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today. Near this feature, isolated severe storms will be possible along the eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass this afternoon from eastern Minnesota southward into northern Iowa. A second shortwave trough will move through Saskatchewan today, and into Manitoba tonight. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance eastward into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Convective initiation should take place near or just ahead of the front as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon or early evening. The more aggressive model solutions suggest that storms will develop in eastern North Dakota late this afternoon, with additional storms forming during the evening further south into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat will likely develop with some of these storms. Model forecasts along and near the instability axis early this evening suggest the strongest deep-layer shear will be in northeastern North Dakota near Grand Forks. RAP forecast soundings for this location at 00Z have MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with large hail, and potentially hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the strongest of updrafts. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if the favored storm mode transitions toward linear during the evening. Although an isolated severe threat may persist into the early overnight period, a capping inversion will strengthen and result in mainly elevated storms. Further south into southeastern North Dakota, the environment should support severe storms during the evening, but convective initiation is a bit less certain. Across much of South Dakota and central Nebraska, weaker deep-layer shear will be in place, which should help to marginalize any severe threat. ..Broyles/Moore.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the north-central U.S. today and tonight. The first shortwave trough will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today. Near this feature, isolated severe storms will be possible along the eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass this afternoon from eastern Minnesota southward into northern Iowa. A second shortwave trough will move through Saskatchewan today, and into Manitoba tonight. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance eastward into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Convective initiation should take place near or just ahead of the front as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon or early evening. The more aggressive model solutions suggest that storms will develop in eastern North Dakota late this afternoon, with additional storms forming during the evening further south into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat will likely develop with some of these storms. Model forecasts along and near the instability axis early this evening suggest the strongest deep-layer shear will be in northeastern North Dakota near Grand Forks. RAP forecast soundings for this location at 00Z have MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with large hail, and potentially hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the strongest of updrafts. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if the favored storm mode transitions toward linear during the evening. Although an isolated severe threat may persist into the early overnight period, a capping inversion will strengthen and result in mainly elevated storms. Further south into southeastern North Dakota, the environment should support severe storms during the evening, but convective initiation is a bit less certain. Across much of South Dakota and central Nebraska, weaker deep-layer shear will be in place, which should help to marginalize any severe threat. ..Broyles/Moore.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the north-central U.S. today and tonight. The first shortwave trough will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today. Near this feature, isolated severe storms will be possible along the eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass this afternoon from eastern Minnesota southward into northern Iowa. A second shortwave trough will move through Saskatchewan today, and into Manitoba tonight. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance eastward into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Convective initiation should take place near or just ahead of the front as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon or early evening. The more aggressive model solutions suggest that storms will develop in eastern North Dakota late this afternoon, with additional storms forming during the evening further south into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat will likely develop with some of these storms. Model forecasts along and near the instability axis early this evening suggest the strongest deep-layer shear will be in northeastern North Dakota near Grand Forks. RAP forecast soundings for this location at 00Z have MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with large hail, and potentially hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the strongest of updrafts. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if the favored storm mode transitions toward linear during the evening. Although an isolated severe threat may persist into the early overnight period, a capping inversion will strengthen and result in mainly elevated storms. Further south into southeastern North Dakota, the environment should support severe storms during the evening, but convective initiation is a bit less certain. Across much of South Dakota and central Nebraska, weaker deep-layer shear will be in place, which should help to marginalize any severe threat. ..Broyles/Moore.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the north-central U.S. today and tonight. The first shortwave trough will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today. Near this feature, isolated severe storms will be possible along the eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass this afternoon from eastern Minnesota southward into northern Iowa. A second shortwave trough will move through Saskatchewan today, and into Manitoba tonight. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance eastward into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Convective initiation should take place near or just ahead of the front as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon or early evening. The more aggressive model solutions suggest that storms will develop in eastern North Dakota late this afternoon, with additional storms forming during the evening further south into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat will likely develop with some of these storms. Model forecasts along and near the instability axis early this evening suggest the strongest deep-layer shear will be in northeastern North Dakota near Grand Forks. RAP forecast soundings for this location at 00Z have MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with large hail, and potentially hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the strongest of updrafts. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if the favored storm mode transitions toward linear during the evening. Although an isolated severe threat may persist into the early overnight period, a capping inversion will strengthen and result in mainly elevated storms. Further south into southeastern North Dakota, the environment should support severe storms during the evening, but convective initiation is a bit less certain. Across much of South Dakota and central Nebraska, weaker deep-layer shear will be in place, which should help to marginalize any severe threat. ..Broyles/Moore.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the north-central U.S. today and tonight. The first shortwave trough will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today. Near this feature, isolated severe storms will be possible along the eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass this afternoon from eastern Minnesota southward into northern Iowa. A second shortwave trough will move through Saskatchewan today, and into Manitoba tonight. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance eastward into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Convective initiation should take place near or just ahead of the front as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon or early evening. The more aggressive model solutions suggest that storms will develop in eastern North Dakota late this afternoon, with additional storms forming during the evening further south into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat will likely develop with some of these storms. Model forecasts along and near the instability axis early this evening suggest the strongest deep-layer shear will be in northeastern North Dakota near Grand Forks. RAP forecast soundings for this location at 00Z have MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with large hail, and potentially hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the strongest of updrafts. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if the favored storm mode transitions toward linear during the evening. Although an isolated severe threat may persist into the early overnight period, a capping inversion will strengthen and result in mainly elevated storms. Further south into southeastern North Dakota, the environment should support severe storms during the evening, but convective initiation is a bit less certain. Across much of South Dakota and central Nebraska, weaker deep-layer shear will be in place, which should help to marginalize any severe threat. ..Broyles/Moore.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains, into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will move across the north-central U.S. today and tonight. The first shortwave trough will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today. Near this feature, isolated severe storms will be possible along the eastern edge of a moist and unstable airmass this afternoon from eastern Minnesota southward into northern Iowa. A second shortwave trough will move through Saskatchewan today, and into Manitoba tonight. Ahead of the trough, a cold front will advance eastward into the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Convective initiation should take place near or just ahead of the front as low-level convergence increases late this afternoon or early evening. The more aggressive model solutions suggest that storms will develop in eastern North Dakota late this afternoon, with additional storms forming during the evening further south into parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat will likely develop with some of these storms. Model forecasts along and near the instability axis early this evening suggest the strongest deep-layer shear will be in northeastern North Dakota near Grand Forks. RAP forecast soundings for this location at 00Z have MLCAPE around 3500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This environment will likely support supercells with large hail, and potentially hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the strongest of updrafts. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, especially if the favored storm mode transitions toward linear during the evening. Although an isolated severe threat may persist into the early overnight period, a capping inversion will strengthen and result in mainly elevated storms. Further south into southeastern North Dakota, the environment should support severe storms during the evening, but convective initiation is a bit less certain. Across much of South Dakota and central Nebraska, weaker deep-layer shear will be in place, which should help to marginalize any severe threat. ..Broyles/Moore.. 08/14/2025 Read more