Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong to severe gusts are also possible from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are still expected along the cold front as it impinges on a destabilizing air mass across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley tonight. Large hail and locally severe gusts will be possible with any organized clusters/supercells that evolve. Elsewhere, see MCDs 1944 and 1945 for details on the near-term severe risks in the Great Basin/central Rockies and Upper Midwest. ..Weinman.. 08/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, along a cold front arcing from west-central Manitoba into south-central MT. A surface trough also extends southward from this low to another weak low in southeast CO. Ample low-level moisture exists across the Plains east of this surface troughing, with mid 60s dewpoints extending up through central and eastern ND. Moist southerly low-level flow is forecast to persist throughout the day. This low-level moisture advection combined with evapotranspiration and low-level convergence near the front is expected to result in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s dewpoints ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas by early evening. Cooling mid-level temperatures are expected across the region, which will combine with the abundant low-level moisture to support strong to very strong buoyancy by the late afternoon/early evening. Recent guidance suggests MLCAPE will range from 3000 to 4000 J/kg across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central/eastern NE by 00Z Friday. Despite this robust buoyancy, warm low to mid-level temperatures and related capping introduce uncertainty regarding convective initiation, particularly with southward extent. Greatest potential for convective initiation remains across eastern ND where glancing large-scale ascent attendant to the substantial shortwave trough moving through Saskatchewan will augment low-level convergence along the southeastward-progressing cold front. Any convection which can be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Given the warm and dry low to mid-levels, strong downdrafts are possible as well. Upscale growth into clusters along the front is possible, and some damaging gusts could occur with these storms as well. Inhibition will quickly increase with eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs, limiting the eastward extent of the severe threat. Additionally, the low-level jet will likely weaken throughout the day but then strengthen again later this evening from western KS into western IA. Associated warm-air advection could result in isolated elevated convection across central MN. Most of these storms should be sub-severe, but a few instances of hail are possible. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop across the central Rockies this afternoon before the spreading eastward/southeastward into the central High Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer and high cloud bases will support strong gusts with this activity as it moves across central High Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may reintensify, with the potential for severe gusts continuing into central NE. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with southward extent. ...Eastern Great Basin into central Rockies... The shortwave trough currently moving into central CA will continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day. Lift associated with this wave will interact with the modest mid-level moisture across the Great Basin to support scattered thunderstorm development. High cloud bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer could support strong downdrafts within the strongest storms, particularly across northern UT where the best overlap between forcing, buoyancy, and modest southwesterly flow aloft exists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong to severe gusts are also possible from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are still expected along the cold front as it impinges on a destabilizing air mass across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley tonight. Large hail and locally severe gusts will be possible with any organized clusters/supercells that evolve. Elsewhere, see MCDs 1944 and 1945 for details on the near-term severe risks in the Great Basin/central Rockies and Upper Midwest. ..Weinman.. 08/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, along a cold front arcing from west-central Manitoba into south-central MT. A surface trough also extends southward from this low to another weak low in southeast CO. Ample low-level moisture exists across the Plains east of this surface troughing, with mid 60s dewpoints extending up through central and eastern ND. Moist southerly low-level flow is forecast to persist throughout the day. This low-level moisture advection combined with evapotranspiration and low-level convergence near the front is expected to result in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s dewpoints ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas by early evening. Cooling mid-level temperatures are expected across the region, which will combine with the abundant low-level moisture to support strong to very strong buoyancy by the late afternoon/early evening. Recent guidance suggests MLCAPE will range from 3000 to 4000 J/kg across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central/eastern NE by 00Z Friday. Despite this robust buoyancy, warm low to mid-level temperatures and related capping introduce uncertainty regarding convective initiation, particularly with southward extent. Greatest potential for convective initiation remains across eastern ND where glancing large-scale ascent attendant to the substantial shortwave trough moving through Saskatchewan will augment low-level convergence along the southeastward-progressing cold front. Any convection which can be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Given the warm and dry low to mid-levels, strong downdrafts are possible as well. Upscale growth into clusters along the front is possible, and some damaging gusts could occur with these storms as well. Inhibition will quickly increase with eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs, limiting the eastward extent of the severe threat. Additionally, the low-level jet will likely weaken throughout the day but then strengthen again later this evening from western KS into western IA. Associated warm-air advection could result in isolated elevated convection across central MN. Most of these storms should be sub-severe, but a few instances of hail are possible. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop across the central Rockies this afternoon before the spreading eastward/southeastward into the central High Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer and high cloud bases will support strong gusts with this activity as it moves across central High Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may reintensify, with the potential for severe gusts continuing into central NE. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with southward extent. ...Eastern Great Basin into central Rockies... The shortwave trough currently moving into central CA will continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day. Lift associated with this wave will interact with the modest mid-level moisture across the Great Basin to support scattered thunderstorm development. High cloud bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer could support strong downdrafts within the strongest storms, particularly across northern UT where the best overlap between forcing, buoyancy, and modest southwesterly flow aloft exists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong to severe gusts are also possible from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are still expected along the cold front as it impinges on a destabilizing air mass across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley tonight. Large hail and locally severe gusts will be possible with any organized clusters/supercells that evolve. Elsewhere, see MCDs 1944 and 1945 for details on the near-term severe risks in the Great Basin/central Rockies and Upper Midwest. ..Weinman.. 08/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, along a cold front arcing from west-central Manitoba into south-central MT. A surface trough also extends southward from this low to another weak low in southeast CO. Ample low-level moisture exists across the Plains east of this surface troughing, with mid 60s dewpoints extending up through central and eastern ND. Moist southerly low-level flow is forecast to persist throughout the day. This low-level moisture advection combined with evapotranspiration and low-level convergence near the front is expected to result in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s dewpoints ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas by early evening. Cooling mid-level temperatures are expected across the region, which will combine with the abundant low-level moisture to support strong to very strong buoyancy by the late afternoon/early evening. Recent guidance suggests MLCAPE will range from 3000 to 4000 J/kg across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central/eastern NE by 00Z Friday. Despite this robust buoyancy, warm low to mid-level temperatures and related capping introduce uncertainty regarding convective initiation, particularly with southward extent. Greatest potential for convective initiation remains across eastern ND where glancing large-scale ascent attendant to the substantial shortwave trough moving through Saskatchewan will augment low-level convergence along the southeastward-progressing cold front. Any convection which can be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Given the warm and dry low to mid-levels, strong downdrafts are possible as well. Upscale growth into clusters along the front is possible, and some damaging gusts could occur with these storms as well. Inhibition will quickly increase with eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs, limiting the eastward extent of the severe threat. Additionally, the low-level jet will likely weaken throughout the day but then strengthen again later this evening from western KS into western IA. Associated warm-air advection could result in isolated elevated convection across central MN. Most of these storms should be sub-severe, but a few instances of hail are possible. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop across the central Rockies this afternoon before the spreading eastward/southeastward into the central High Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer and high cloud bases will support strong gusts with this activity as it moves across central High Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may reintensify, with the potential for severe gusts continuing into central NE. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with southward extent. ...Eastern Great Basin into central Rockies... The shortwave trough currently moving into central CA will continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day. Lift associated with this wave will interact with the modest mid-level moisture across the Great Basin to support scattered thunderstorm development. High cloud bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer could support strong downdrafts within the strongest storms, particularly across northern UT where the best overlap between forcing, buoyancy, and modest southwesterly flow aloft exists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong to severe gusts are also possible from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are still expected along the cold front as it impinges on a destabilizing air mass across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley tonight. Large hail and locally severe gusts will be possible with any organized clusters/supercells that evolve. Elsewhere, see MCDs 1944 and 1945 for details on the near-term severe risks in the Great Basin/central Rockies and Upper Midwest. ..Weinman.. 08/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, along a cold front arcing from west-central Manitoba into south-central MT. A surface trough also extends southward from this low to another weak low in southeast CO. Ample low-level moisture exists across the Plains east of this surface troughing, with mid 60s dewpoints extending up through central and eastern ND. Moist southerly low-level flow is forecast to persist throughout the day. This low-level moisture advection combined with evapotranspiration and low-level convergence near the front is expected to result in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s dewpoints ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas by early evening. Cooling mid-level temperatures are expected across the region, which will combine with the abundant low-level moisture to support strong to very strong buoyancy by the late afternoon/early evening. Recent guidance suggests MLCAPE will range from 3000 to 4000 J/kg across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central/eastern NE by 00Z Friday. Despite this robust buoyancy, warm low to mid-level temperatures and related capping introduce uncertainty regarding convective initiation, particularly with southward extent. Greatest potential for convective initiation remains across eastern ND where glancing large-scale ascent attendant to the substantial shortwave trough moving through Saskatchewan will augment low-level convergence along the southeastward-progressing cold front. Any convection which can be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Given the warm and dry low to mid-levels, strong downdrafts are possible as well. Upscale growth into clusters along the front is possible, and some damaging gusts could occur with these storms as well. Inhibition will quickly increase with eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs, limiting the eastward extent of the severe threat. Additionally, the low-level jet will likely weaken throughout the day but then strengthen again later this evening from western KS into western IA. Associated warm-air advection could result in isolated elevated convection across central MN. Most of these storms should be sub-severe, but a few instances of hail are possible. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop across the central Rockies this afternoon before the spreading eastward/southeastward into the central High Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer and high cloud bases will support strong gusts with this activity as it moves across central High Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may reintensify, with the potential for severe gusts continuing into central NE. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with southward extent. ...Eastern Great Basin into central Rockies... The shortwave trough currently moving into central CA will continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day. Lift associated with this wave will interact with the modest mid-level moisture across the Great Basin to support scattered thunderstorm development. High cloud bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer could support strong downdrafts within the strongest storms, particularly across northern UT where the best overlap between forcing, buoyancy, and modest southwesterly flow aloft exists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong to severe gusts are also possible from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are still expected along the cold front as it impinges on a destabilizing air mass across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley tonight. Large hail and locally severe gusts will be possible with any organized clusters/supercells that evolve. Elsewhere, see MCDs 1944 and 1945 for details on the near-term severe risks in the Great Basin/central Rockies and Upper Midwest. ..Weinman.. 08/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/ ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, along a cold front arcing from west-central Manitoba into south-central MT. A surface trough also extends southward from this low to another weak low in southeast CO. Ample low-level moisture exists across the Plains east of this surface troughing, with mid 60s dewpoints extending up through central and eastern ND. Moist southerly low-level flow is forecast to persist throughout the day. This low-level moisture advection combined with evapotranspiration and low-level convergence near the front is expected to result in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s dewpoints ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas by early evening. Cooling mid-level temperatures are expected across the region, which will combine with the abundant low-level moisture to support strong to very strong buoyancy by the late afternoon/early evening. Recent guidance suggests MLCAPE will range from 3000 to 4000 J/kg across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central/eastern NE by 00Z Friday. Despite this robust buoyancy, warm low to mid-level temperatures and related capping introduce uncertainty regarding convective initiation, particularly with southward extent. Greatest potential for convective initiation remains across eastern ND where glancing large-scale ascent attendant to the substantial shortwave trough moving through Saskatchewan will augment low-level convergence along the southeastward-progressing cold front. Any convection which can be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Given the warm and dry low to mid-levels, strong downdrafts are possible as well. Upscale growth into clusters along the front is possible, and some damaging gusts could occur with these storms as well. Inhibition will quickly increase with eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs, limiting the eastward extent of the severe threat. Additionally, the low-level jet will likely weaken throughout the day but then strengthen again later this evening from western KS into western IA. Associated warm-air advection could result in isolated elevated convection across central MN. Most of these storms should be sub-severe, but a few instances of hail are possible. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop across the central Rockies this afternoon before the spreading eastward/southeastward into the central High Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer and high cloud bases will support strong gusts with this activity as it moves across central High Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may reintensify, with the potential for severe gusts continuing into central NE. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with southward extent. ...Eastern Great Basin into central Rockies... The shortwave trough currently moving into central CA will continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day. Lift associated with this wave will interact with the modest mid-level moisture across the Great Basin to support scattered thunderstorm development. High cloud bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer could support strong downdrafts within the strongest storms, particularly across northern UT where the best overlap between forcing, buoyancy, and modest southwesterly flow aloft exists. Read more

MD 1944 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1944 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Areas affected...southwest to central MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141937Z - 142130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat might develop before early evening within a few cells shifting slowly east from southwest Minnesota. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Along the backside of a remnant MCV moving from south-central to southeast MN, lower-level warm theta-e advection has persisted across southwest MN. A belt of 40-45 kt southwesterlies has been consistently sampled by the FSD VWP from 1-3 km and this is expected to gradually shift east into this evening. RAP-based forecast soundings and observed cloud bases suggest initial cells are probably rooted around 750 mb along the differential heating zone west of the MCV cloud shield. Nearly all guidance has lacked robust convective signal this afternoon, except for the 12Z HRW-NSSL. It has a low-probability scenario of a supercell developing within this regime and tracking south-southeast along the differential heating corridor. The more probable scenario is for sporadic attempts at transient updraft rotation, capable of producing marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts. These threats should remain within a confined corridor at any one time, but gradually translate east into early evening. ..Grams/Mosier.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD... LAT...LON 45379593 45769549 45779492 45519447 45129408 44699388 44189377 43739422 43759513 44189589 44759625 45379593 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk into portions of the Sierras in central California. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Friday across the Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies. The upper wave currently moving into CA will gradually shift east into the Great Basin over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a weak surface low over the Intermountain West while also supporting a northward surge of deeper monsoonal moisture from AZ into UT, CO, and parts of southern WY. Dry conditions - both at the surface and aloft - will support elevated fire weather conditions as well as dry thunderstorm chances. Latest ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of 15-20 mph winds will likely emerge from southern NV into western UT and eastern ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable as RH values fall into the 10-15% range by late afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture on the northwestern fringe of the monsoonal surge will support a swath of 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE across central NV into western WY. Dry boundary layer conditions under the weak buoyancy coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions will favor dry thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for convection, though coverage may be more limited compared to previous days as stronger synoptic forcing for ascent will likely remain displaced to the south/southeast. Regardless, receptive fuels over the region will continue to yield a lightning-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk into portions of the Sierras in central California. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Friday across the Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies. The upper wave currently moving into CA will gradually shift east into the Great Basin over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a weak surface low over the Intermountain West while also supporting a northward surge of deeper monsoonal moisture from AZ into UT, CO, and parts of southern WY. Dry conditions - both at the surface and aloft - will support elevated fire weather conditions as well as dry thunderstorm chances. Latest ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of 15-20 mph winds will likely emerge from southern NV into western UT and eastern ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable as RH values fall into the 10-15% range by late afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture on the northwestern fringe of the monsoonal surge will support a swath of 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE across central NV into western WY. Dry boundary layer conditions under the weak buoyancy coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions will favor dry thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for convection, though coverage may be more limited compared to previous days as stronger synoptic forcing for ascent will likely remain displaced to the south/southeast. Regardless, receptive fuels over the region will continue to yield a lightning-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk into portions of the Sierras in central California. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Friday across the Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies. The upper wave currently moving into CA will gradually shift east into the Great Basin over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a weak surface low over the Intermountain West while also supporting a northward surge of deeper monsoonal moisture from AZ into UT, CO, and parts of southern WY. Dry conditions - both at the surface and aloft - will support elevated fire weather conditions as well as dry thunderstorm chances. Latest ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of 15-20 mph winds will likely emerge from southern NV into western UT and eastern ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable as RH values fall into the 10-15% range by late afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture on the northwestern fringe of the monsoonal surge will support a swath of 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE across central NV into western WY. Dry boundary layer conditions under the weak buoyancy coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions will favor dry thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for convection, though coverage may be more limited compared to previous days as stronger synoptic forcing for ascent will likely remain displaced to the south/southeast. Regardless, receptive fuels over the region will continue to yield a lightning-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk into portions of the Sierras in central California. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Friday across the Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies. The upper wave currently moving into CA will gradually shift east into the Great Basin over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a weak surface low over the Intermountain West while also supporting a northward surge of deeper monsoonal moisture from AZ into UT, CO, and parts of southern WY. Dry conditions - both at the surface and aloft - will support elevated fire weather conditions as well as dry thunderstorm chances. Latest ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of 15-20 mph winds will likely emerge from southern NV into western UT and eastern ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable as RH values fall into the 10-15% range by late afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture on the northwestern fringe of the monsoonal surge will support a swath of 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE across central NV into western WY. Dry boundary layer conditions under the weak buoyancy coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions will favor dry thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for convection, though coverage may be more limited compared to previous days as stronger synoptic forcing for ascent will likely remain displaced to the south/southeast. Regardless, receptive fuels over the region will continue to yield a lightning-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk into portions of the Sierras in central California. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Friday across the Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies. The upper wave currently moving into CA will gradually shift east into the Great Basin over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a weak surface low over the Intermountain West while also supporting a northward surge of deeper monsoonal moisture from AZ into UT, CO, and parts of southern WY. Dry conditions - both at the surface and aloft - will support elevated fire weather conditions as well as dry thunderstorm chances. Latest ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of 15-20 mph winds will likely emerge from southern NV into western UT and eastern ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable as RH values fall into the 10-15% range by late afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture on the northwestern fringe of the monsoonal surge will support a swath of 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE across central NV into western WY. Dry boundary layer conditions under the weak buoyancy coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions will favor dry thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for convection, though coverage may be more limited compared to previous days as stronger synoptic forcing for ascent will likely remain displaced to the south/southeast. Regardless, receptive fuels over the region will continue to yield a lightning-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk into portions of the Sierras in central California. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Friday across the Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies. The upper wave currently moving into CA will gradually shift east into the Great Basin over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a weak surface low over the Intermountain West while also supporting a northward surge of deeper monsoonal moisture from AZ into UT, CO, and parts of southern WY. Dry conditions - both at the surface and aloft - will support elevated fire weather conditions as well as dry thunderstorm chances. Latest ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of 15-20 mph winds will likely emerge from southern NV into western UT and eastern ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable as RH values fall into the 10-15% range by late afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture on the northwestern fringe of the monsoonal surge will support a swath of 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE across central NV into western WY. Dry boundary layer conditions under the weak buoyancy coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions will favor dry thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for convection, though coverage may be more limited compared to previous days as stronger synoptic forcing for ascent will likely remain displaced to the south/southeast. Regardless, receptive fuels over the region will continue to yield a lightning-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk into portions of the Sierras in central California. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Friday across the Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies. The upper wave currently moving into CA will gradually shift east into the Great Basin over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a weak surface low over the Intermountain West while also supporting a northward surge of deeper monsoonal moisture from AZ into UT, CO, and parts of southern WY. Dry conditions - both at the surface and aloft - will support elevated fire weather conditions as well as dry thunderstorm chances. Latest ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of 15-20 mph winds will likely emerge from southern NV into western UT and eastern ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable as RH values fall into the 10-15% range by late afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture on the northwestern fringe of the monsoonal surge will support a swath of 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE across central NV into western WY. Dry boundary layer conditions under the weak buoyancy coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions will favor dry thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for convection, though coverage may be more limited compared to previous days as stronger synoptic forcing for ascent will likely remain displaced to the south/southeast. Regardless, receptive fuels over the region will continue to yield a lightning-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk into portions of the Sierras in central California. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Friday across the Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies. The upper wave currently moving into CA will gradually shift east into the Great Basin over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a weak surface low over the Intermountain West while also supporting a northward surge of deeper monsoonal moisture from AZ into UT, CO, and parts of southern WY. Dry conditions - both at the surface and aloft - will support elevated fire weather conditions as well as dry thunderstorm chances. Latest ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of 15-20 mph winds will likely emerge from southern NV into western UT and eastern ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable as RH values fall into the 10-15% range by late afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture on the northwestern fringe of the monsoonal surge will support a swath of 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE across central NV into western WY. Dry boundary layer conditions under the weak buoyancy coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions will favor dry thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for convection, though coverage may be more limited compared to previous days as stronger synoptic forcing for ascent will likely remain displaced to the south/southeast. Regardless, receptive fuels over the region will continue to yield a lightning-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z Minor adjustments were made to extend Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk into portions of the Sierras in central California. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Friday across the Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies. The upper wave currently moving into CA will gradually shift east into the Great Basin over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a weak surface low over the Intermountain West while also supporting a northward surge of deeper monsoonal moisture from AZ into UT, CO, and parts of southern WY. Dry conditions - both at the surface and aloft - will support elevated fire weather conditions as well as dry thunderstorm chances. Latest ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of 15-20 mph winds will likely emerge from southern NV into western UT and eastern ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable as RH values fall into the 10-15% range by late afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture on the northwestern fringe of the monsoonal surge will support a swath of 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE across central NV into western WY. Dry boundary layer conditions under the weak buoyancy coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions will favor dry thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for convection, though coverage may be more limited compared to previous days as stronger synoptic forcing for ascent will likely remain displaced to the south/southeast. Regardless, receptive fuels over the region will continue to yield a lightning-driven fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Saturday from the central/northern Plains to Lower Michigan. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning along a frontal zone from the northern Plains to the western Great Lakes. The location and strength of this morning convection will have significant impacts on more focused zones of severe weather threat on Saturday. A MCS may be ongoing across Wisconsin/northern Illinois/western Michigan on Saturday morning. This MCS or a remnant MCV in its wake, may provide a focus for severe storms across Lower Michigan Saturday afternoon. In addition, a MCS may be ongoing across eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota on the nose of the low-level jet. If the environment downstream of this MCS can destabilize during the morning, a severe weather threat may materialize as this MCS moves east along the front. If neither of these solutions occur, the severe weather threat may be somewhat more isolated. However, very strong to extreme instability is expected along the frontal zone with sufficient shear for some storm organization. Strong heating in the Plains may result in a few isolated high-based storms from central Nebraska to western South Dakota and potentially into far southwest Montana with a primary severe wind threat during the afternoon/early evening. Convection is expected along most of the frontal zone from eastern South Dakota to Michigan Saturday night as the low-level jet strengthens and height falls overspread the region. Isolated large hail is possible from these storms. ..Bentley.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Saturday from the central/northern Plains to Lower Michigan. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning along a frontal zone from the northern Plains to the western Great Lakes. The location and strength of this morning convection will have significant impacts on more focused zones of severe weather threat on Saturday. A MCS may be ongoing across Wisconsin/northern Illinois/western Michigan on Saturday morning. This MCS or a remnant MCV in its wake, may provide a focus for severe storms across Lower Michigan Saturday afternoon. In addition, a MCS may be ongoing across eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota on the nose of the low-level jet. If the environment downstream of this MCS can destabilize during the morning, a severe weather threat may materialize as this MCS moves east along the front. If neither of these solutions occur, the severe weather threat may be somewhat more isolated. However, very strong to extreme instability is expected along the frontal zone with sufficient shear for some storm organization. Strong heating in the Plains may result in a few isolated high-based storms from central Nebraska to western South Dakota and potentially into far southwest Montana with a primary severe wind threat during the afternoon/early evening. Convection is expected along most of the frontal zone from eastern South Dakota to Michigan Saturday night as the low-level jet strengthens and height falls overspread the region. Isolated large hail is possible from these storms. ..Bentley.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Saturday from the central/northern Plains to Lower Michigan. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning along a frontal zone from the northern Plains to the western Great Lakes. The location and strength of this morning convection will have significant impacts on more focused zones of severe weather threat on Saturday. A MCS may be ongoing across Wisconsin/northern Illinois/western Michigan on Saturday morning. This MCS or a remnant MCV in its wake, may provide a focus for severe storms across Lower Michigan Saturday afternoon. In addition, a MCS may be ongoing across eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota on the nose of the low-level jet. If the environment downstream of this MCS can destabilize during the morning, a severe weather threat may materialize as this MCS moves east along the front. If neither of these solutions occur, the severe weather threat may be somewhat more isolated. However, very strong to extreme instability is expected along the frontal zone with sufficient shear for some storm organization. Strong heating in the Plains may result in a few isolated high-based storms from central Nebraska to western South Dakota and potentially into far southwest Montana with a primary severe wind threat during the afternoon/early evening. Convection is expected along most of the frontal zone from eastern South Dakota to Michigan Saturday night as the low-level jet strengthens and height falls overspread the region. Isolated large hail is possible from these storms. ..Bentley.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Saturday from the central/northern Plains to Lower Michigan. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning along a frontal zone from the northern Plains to the western Great Lakes. The location and strength of this morning convection will have significant impacts on more focused zones of severe weather threat on Saturday. A MCS may be ongoing across Wisconsin/northern Illinois/western Michigan on Saturday morning. This MCS or a remnant MCV in its wake, may provide a focus for severe storms across Lower Michigan Saturday afternoon. In addition, a MCS may be ongoing across eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota on the nose of the low-level jet. If the environment downstream of this MCS can destabilize during the morning, a severe weather threat may materialize as this MCS moves east along the front. If neither of these solutions occur, the severe weather threat may be somewhat more isolated. However, very strong to extreme instability is expected along the frontal zone with sufficient shear for some storm organization. Strong heating in the Plains may result in a few isolated high-based storms from central Nebraska to western South Dakota and potentially into far southwest Montana with a primary severe wind threat during the afternoon/early evening. Convection is expected along most of the frontal zone from eastern South Dakota to Michigan Saturday night as the low-level jet strengthens and height falls overspread the region. Isolated large hail is possible from these storms. ..Bentley.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Saturday from the central/northern Plains to Lower Michigan. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning along a frontal zone from the northern Plains to the western Great Lakes. The location and strength of this morning convection will have significant impacts on more focused zones of severe weather threat on Saturday. A MCS may be ongoing across Wisconsin/northern Illinois/western Michigan on Saturday morning. This MCS or a remnant MCV in its wake, may provide a focus for severe storms across Lower Michigan Saturday afternoon. In addition, a MCS may be ongoing across eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota on the nose of the low-level jet. If the environment downstream of this MCS can destabilize during the morning, a severe weather threat may materialize as this MCS moves east along the front. If neither of these solutions occur, the severe weather threat may be somewhat more isolated. However, very strong to extreme instability is expected along the frontal zone with sufficient shear for some storm organization. Strong heating in the Plains may result in a few isolated high-based storms from central Nebraska to western South Dakota and potentially into far southwest Montana with a primary severe wind threat during the afternoon/early evening. Convection is expected along most of the frontal zone from eastern South Dakota to Michigan Saturday night as the low-level jet strengthens and height falls overspread the region. Isolated large hail is possible from these storms. ..Bentley.. 08/14/2025 Read more