Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday over South Dakota primarily during the late afternoon through the late evening period. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. ...Northern Great Plains... A mid-level ridge centered over the lower MS Valley/Mid South will feature a weak disturbance moving from the WY/CO vicinity into the Dakotas Saturday night. A residual composite front will remain draped east-west from the Upper Midwest into western SD, where it will intersect a lee trough from the central High Plains north-northwestward into eastern MT. Although large-scale ascent will remain fairly weak across the region, isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the vicinity of the lee trough and Black Hills by the late afternoon as convective inhibition erodes. To the north of the front, a moist and unstable airmass featuring a moderate to very unstable boundary layer will develop by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows a gradual increase in storm coverage during the early evening over western/central SD. Ample directional shear will support effective shear magnitudes 30-40 kt and storm organization with the stronger storms. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats. ...Midwest... A linear cluster of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the Upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes. Model guidance differs on the evolution of this potentia shower/thunderstorm activity, but west-northwesterly mid-level flow poleward of a mid-level anticyclone centered over the lower MS Valley, will potentially favor some continuation of storms downstream across the southwestern Great Lakes. Models continue to show a moist/unstable airmass across southern portions of the Great Lakes. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak across the region, regenerative storm development on remnant outflow may yield a subsequent evolution of a storm cluster but uncertainty remains high. Isolated damaging gusts/hail are the main threats with these storms. ..Smith.. 08/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday over South Dakota primarily during the late afternoon through the late evening period. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. ...Northern Great Plains... A mid-level ridge centered over the lower MS Valley/Mid South will feature a weak disturbance moving from the WY/CO vicinity into the Dakotas Saturday night. A residual composite front will remain draped east-west from the Upper Midwest into western SD, where it will intersect a lee trough from the central High Plains north-northwestward into eastern MT. Although large-scale ascent will remain fairly weak across the region, isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the vicinity of the lee trough and Black Hills by the late afternoon as convective inhibition erodes. To the north of the front, a moist and unstable airmass featuring a moderate to very unstable boundary layer will develop by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows a gradual increase in storm coverage during the early evening over western/central SD. Ample directional shear will support effective shear magnitudes 30-40 kt and storm organization with the stronger storms. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats. ...Midwest... A linear cluster of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the Upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes. Model guidance differs on the evolution of this potentia shower/thunderstorm activity, but west-northwesterly mid-level flow poleward of a mid-level anticyclone centered over the lower MS Valley, will potentially favor some continuation of storms downstream across the southwestern Great Lakes. Models continue to show a moist/unstable airmass across southern portions of the Great Lakes. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak across the region, regenerative storm development on remnant outflow may yield a subsequent evolution of a storm cluster but uncertainty remains high. Isolated damaging gusts/hail are the main threats with these storms. ..Smith.. 08/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday over South Dakota primarily during the late afternoon through the late evening period. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. ...Northern Great Plains... A mid-level ridge centered over the lower MS Valley/Mid South will feature a weak disturbance moving from the WY/CO vicinity into the Dakotas Saturday night. A residual composite front will remain draped east-west from the Upper Midwest into western SD, where it will intersect a lee trough from the central High Plains north-northwestward into eastern MT. Although large-scale ascent will remain fairly weak across the region, isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the vicinity of the lee trough and Black Hills by the late afternoon as convective inhibition erodes. To the north of the front, a moist and unstable airmass featuring a moderate to very unstable boundary layer will develop by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows a gradual increase in storm coverage during the early evening over western/central SD. Ample directional shear will support effective shear magnitudes 30-40 kt and storm organization with the stronger storms. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats. ...Midwest... A linear cluster of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the Upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes. Model guidance differs on the evolution of this potentia shower/thunderstorm activity, but west-northwesterly mid-level flow poleward of a mid-level anticyclone centered over the lower MS Valley, will potentially favor some continuation of storms downstream across the southwestern Great Lakes. Models continue to show a moist/unstable airmass across southern portions of the Great Lakes. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak across the region, regenerative storm development on remnant outflow may yield a subsequent evolution of a storm cluster but uncertainty remains high. Isolated damaging gusts/hail are the main threats with these storms. ..Smith.. 08/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday over South Dakota primarily during the late afternoon through the late evening period. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. ...Northern Great Plains... A mid-level ridge centered over the lower MS Valley/Mid South will feature a weak disturbance moving from the WY/CO vicinity into the Dakotas Saturday night. A residual composite front will remain draped east-west from the Upper Midwest into western SD, where it will intersect a lee trough from the central High Plains north-northwestward into eastern MT. Although large-scale ascent will remain fairly weak across the region, isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the vicinity of the lee trough and Black Hills by the late afternoon as convective inhibition erodes. To the north of the front, a moist and unstable airmass featuring a moderate to very unstable boundary layer will develop by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows a gradual increase in storm coverage during the early evening over western/central SD. Ample directional shear will support effective shear magnitudes 30-40 kt and storm organization with the stronger storms. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats. ...Midwest... A linear cluster of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the Upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes. Model guidance differs on the evolution of this potentia shower/thunderstorm activity, but west-northwesterly mid-level flow poleward of a mid-level anticyclone centered over the lower MS Valley, will potentially favor some continuation of storms downstream across the southwestern Great Lakes. Models continue to show a moist/unstable airmass across southern portions of the Great Lakes. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak across the region, regenerative storm development on remnant outflow may yield a subsequent evolution of a storm cluster but uncertainty remains high. Isolated damaging gusts/hail are the main threats with these storms. ..Smith.. 08/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday over South Dakota primarily during the late afternoon through the late evening period. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. ...Northern Great Plains... A mid-level ridge centered over the lower MS Valley/Mid South will feature a weak disturbance moving from the WY/CO vicinity into the Dakotas Saturday night. A residual composite front will remain draped east-west from the Upper Midwest into western SD, where it will intersect a lee trough from the central High Plains north-northwestward into eastern MT. Although large-scale ascent will remain fairly weak across the region, isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the vicinity of the lee trough and Black Hills by the late afternoon as convective inhibition erodes. To the north of the front, a moist and unstable airmass featuring a moderate to very unstable boundary layer will develop by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows a gradual increase in storm coverage during the early evening over western/central SD. Ample directional shear will support effective shear magnitudes 30-40 kt and storm organization with the stronger storms. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats. ...Midwest... A linear cluster of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the Upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes. Model guidance differs on the evolution of this potentia shower/thunderstorm activity, but west-northwesterly mid-level flow poleward of a mid-level anticyclone centered over the lower MS Valley, will potentially favor some continuation of storms downstream across the southwestern Great Lakes. Models continue to show a moist/unstable airmass across southern portions of the Great Lakes. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak across the region, regenerative storm development on remnant outflow may yield a subsequent evolution of a storm cluster but uncertainty remains high. Isolated damaging gusts/hail are the main threats with these storms. ..Smith.. 08/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday over South Dakota primarily during the late afternoon through the late evening period. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. ...Northern Great Plains... A mid-level ridge centered over the lower MS Valley/Mid South will feature a weak disturbance moving from the WY/CO vicinity into the Dakotas Saturday night. A residual composite front will remain draped east-west from the Upper Midwest into western SD, where it will intersect a lee trough from the central High Plains north-northwestward into eastern MT. Although large-scale ascent will remain fairly weak across the region, isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the vicinity of the lee trough and Black Hills by the late afternoon as convective inhibition erodes. To the north of the front, a moist and unstable airmass featuring a moderate to very unstable boundary layer will develop by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows a gradual increase in storm coverage during the early evening over western/central SD. Ample directional shear will support effective shear magnitudes 30-40 kt and storm organization with the stronger storms. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats. ...Midwest... A linear cluster of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the Upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes. Model guidance differs on the evolution of this potentia shower/thunderstorm activity, but west-northwesterly mid-level flow poleward of a mid-level anticyclone centered over the lower MS Valley, will potentially favor some continuation of storms downstream across the southwestern Great Lakes. Models continue to show a moist/unstable airmass across southern portions of the Great Lakes. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak across the region, regenerative storm development on remnant outflow may yield a subsequent evolution of a storm cluster but uncertainty remains high. Isolated damaging gusts/hail are the main threats with these storms. ..Smith.. 08/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday over South Dakota primarily during the late afternoon through the late evening period. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. ...Northern Great Plains... A mid-level ridge centered over the lower MS Valley/Mid South will feature a weak disturbance moving from the WY/CO vicinity into the Dakotas Saturday night. A residual composite front will remain draped east-west from the Upper Midwest into western SD, where it will intersect a lee trough from the central High Plains north-northwestward into eastern MT. Although large-scale ascent will remain fairly weak across the region, isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the vicinity of the lee trough and Black Hills by the late afternoon as convective inhibition erodes. To the north of the front, a moist and unstable airmass featuring a moderate to very unstable boundary layer will develop by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows a gradual increase in storm coverage during the early evening over western/central SD. Ample directional shear will support effective shear magnitudes 30-40 kt and storm organization with the stronger storms. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats. ...Midwest... A linear cluster of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the Upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes. Model guidance differs on the evolution of this potentia shower/thunderstorm activity, but west-northwesterly mid-level flow poleward of a mid-level anticyclone centered over the lower MS Valley, will potentially favor some continuation of storms downstream across the southwestern Great Lakes. Models continue to show a moist/unstable airmass across southern portions of the Great Lakes. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak across the region, regenerative storm development on remnant outflow may yield a subsequent evolution of a storm cluster but uncertainty remains high. Isolated damaging gusts/hail are the main threats with these storms. ..Smith.. 08/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday over South Dakota primarily during the late afternoon through the late evening period. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. ...Northern Great Plains... A mid-level ridge centered over the lower MS Valley/Mid South will feature a weak disturbance moving from the WY/CO vicinity into the Dakotas Saturday night. A residual composite front will remain draped east-west from the Upper Midwest into western SD, where it will intersect a lee trough from the central High Plains north-northwestward into eastern MT. Although large-scale ascent will remain fairly weak across the region, isolated thunderstorms will likely develop in the vicinity of the lee trough and Black Hills by the late afternoon as convective inhibition erodes. To the north of the front, a moist and unstable airmass featuring a moderate to very unstable boundary layer will develop by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows a gradual increase in storm coverage during the early evening over western/central SD. Ample directional shear will support effective shear magnitudes 30-40 kt and storm organization with the stronger storms. Large hail and severe gusts appear to be the primary threats. ...Midwest... A linear cluster of thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the Upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes. Model guidance differs on the evolution of this potentia shower/thunderstorm activity, but west-northwesterly mid-level flow poleward of a mid-level anticyclone centered over the lower MS Valley, will potentially favor some continuation of storms downstream across the southwestern Great Lakes. Models continue to show a moist/unstable airmass across southern portions of the Great Lakes. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak across the region, regenerative storm development on remnant outflow may yield a subsequent evolution of a storm cluster but uncertainty remains high. Isolated damaging gusts/hail are the main threats with these storms. ..Smith.. 08/15/2025 Read more

WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0589 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 15 16:54:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... Thermodynamic profiles continue to be supportive of dry thunderstorm development over portions of Northeast NV into southern ID/western WY and southward along the central UT mountain chain. Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the Great Basin will support faster storm motions, particularly from a corridor from northeastern Nevada into southeastern ID, further limiting rainfall potential. A clearly evident, deeper moisture plume depicted by satellite imagery currently translating northward from northern AZ into eastern UT, should promote more wetting rain cores out of expected higher terrain shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon. PWATs across the Colorado Plateau and Western Slope should remain at or above 0.80" limiting lightning ignition efficiency in this region. Orographically forced convection and a few thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Central Sierra Nevada mountains are also expected over increasingly dry fuels. ...Southern Nevada, southeastern Idaho and far southwest Montana... The mid-level trough will also support a swath of enhanced south to southwest winds (15-20 mph) across southern and eastern NV as well as portions of central ID mountains and Upper Snake River Plain. The winds combined with a dry boundary layer and surface relative humidity of 15% or below will promote elevated fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level ridging over the Central US is forecast to build today, as weak westerly flow passes over it. Weak troughing over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward bolstering mid-level flow over the region. A weak lee low over the High Plains will support west/southwesterly winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West through this afternoon. 15-20 mph gusts will overlap with very warm and dry conditions (RH below 15) from eastern NV into portions of UT, WY and ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable given very dry and receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Weak height falls from the upper trough over the West will continue to overspread robust monsoon moisture supporting isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture will overlap with dry boundary layer conditions and high cloud bases. This will favor dry storms with limited potential for wetting rainfall. The favorable thermodynamic conditions, coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions over top receptive fuels will continue to support dry lightning potential with these storms over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more