Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough with an attendant cold front and associated Pacific moisture pushing into the northwestern U.S. will be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms on Day 2 (Saturday). A subtle mid-level wind maxima introducing increasing vertical wind shear (35-40 knots) into southeastern OR and central ID will promote faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories. The thunderstorm threat could extend into Saturday night/early Sunday morning given lingering elevated instability and favorable shear profiles. Limited rainfall could support new ignitions over dry fuels with outflow winds impacting existing active fires across the area. ...Great Basin... Mid-level troughing across the Northwest should continue to promote breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern/northeastern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15% are expected in some valleys in the Great Basin but not widespread enough to include Elevated highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the West will gradually intensify Friday as central US ridging also builds and gradually shifts eastward. As western US troughing deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A cold front will move through the Northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of OR, WA and northern CA, while dry and breezy conditions will persist over the southern Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades. To the east, diurnal heating and more modest moisture should support a relatively dry boundary layer with drier storms. isolated to scattered storms are expected along the cold front from eastern OR into western ID. While some wetting rainfall is possible, the modest moisture and faster storm speed should still support isolated dry thunder potential over the Northeast and central Rockies Friday afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Great Basin... As the western US trough slowly deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will remain fairly modest over the West. Still, some increase is expected over portions of southern NV and western UT. While not overly strong, afternoon westerly winds near 15 mph appear possible Friday afternoon. With low RH (below 15) locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible for a few hours amidst dry fuels. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated Highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough with an attendant cold front and associated Pacific moisture pushing into the northwestern U.S. will be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms on Day 2 (Saturday). A subtle mid-level wind maxima introducing increasing vertical wind shear (35-40 knots) into southeastern OR and central ID will promote faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories. The thunderstorm threat could extend into Saturday night/early Sunday morning given lingering elevated instability and favorable shear profiles. Limited rainfall could support new ignitions over dry fuels with outflow winds impacting existing active fires across the area. ...Great Basin... Mid-level troughing across the Northwest should continue to promote breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern/northeastern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15% are expected in some valleys in the Great Basin but not widespread enough to include Elevated highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the West will gradually intensify Friday as central US ridging also builds and gradually shifts eastward. As western US troughing deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A cold front will move through the Northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of OR, WA and northern CA, while dry and breezy conditions will persist over the southern Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades. To the east, diurnal heating and more modest moisture should support a relatively dry boundary layer with drier storms. isolated to scattered storms are expected along the cold front from eastern OR into western ID. While some wetting rainfall is possible, the modest moisture and faster storm speed should still support isolated dry thunder potential over the Northeast and central Rockies Friday afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Great Basin... As the western US trough slowly deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will remain fairly modest over the West. Still, some increase is expected over portions of southern NV and western UT. While not overly strong, afternoon westerly winds near 15 mph appear possible Friday afternoon. With low RH (below 15) locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible for a few hours amidst dry fuels. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated Highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough with an attendant cold front and associated Pacific moisture pushing into the northwestern U.S. will be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms on Day 2 (Saturday). A subtle mid-level wind maxima introducing increasing vertical wind shear (35-40 knots) into southeastern OR and central ID will promote faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories. The thunderstorm threat could extend into Saturday night/early Sunday morning given lingering elevated instability and favorable shear profiles. Limited rainfall could support new ignitions over dry fuels with outflow winds impacting existing active fires across the area. ...Great Basin... Mid-level troughing across the Northwest should continue to promote breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern/northeastern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15% are expected in some valleys in the Great Basin but not widespread enough to include Elevated highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the West will gradually intensify Friday as central US ridging also builds and gradually shifts eastward. As western US troughing deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A cold front will move through the Northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of OR, WA and northern CA, while dry and breezy conditions will persist over the southern Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades. To the east, diurnal heating and more modest moisture should support a relatively dry boundary layer with drier storms. isolated to scattered storms are expected along the cold front from eastern OR into western ID. While some wetting rainfall is possible, the modest moisture and faster storm speed should still support isolated dry thunder potential over the Northeast and central Rockies Friday afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Great Basin... As the western US trough slowly deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will remain fairly modest over the West. Still, some increase is expected over portions of southern NV and western UT. While not overly strong, afternoon westerly winds near 15 mph appear possible Friday afternoon. With low RH (below 15) locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible for a few hours amidst dry fuels. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated Highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough with an attendant cold front and associated Pacific moisture pushing into the northwestern U.S. will be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms on Day 2 (Saturday). A subtle mid-level wind maxima introducing increasing vertical wind shear (35-40 knots) into southeastern OR and central ID will promote faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories. The thunderstorm threat could extend into Saturday night/early Sunday morning given lingering elevated instability and favorable shear profiles. Limited rainfall could support new ignitions over dry fuels with outflow winds impacting existing active fires across the area. ...Great Basin... Mid-level troughing across the Northwest should continue to promote breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern/northeastern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15% are expected in some valleys in the Great Basin but not widespread enough to include Elevated highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the West will gradually intensify Friday as central US ridging also builds and gradually shifts eastward. As western US troughing deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A cold front will move through the Northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of OR, WA and northern CA, while dry and breezy conditions will persist over the southern Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades. To the east, diurnal heating and more modest moisture should support a relatively dry boundary layer with drier storms. isolated to scattered storms are expected along the cold front from eastern OR into western ID. While some wetting rainfall is possible, the modest moisture and faster storm speed should still support isolated dry thunder potential over the Northeast and central Rockies Friday afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Great Basin... As the western US trough slowly deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will remain fairly modest over the West. Still, some increase is expected over portions of southern NV and western UT. While not overly strong, afternoon westerly winds near 15 mph appear possible Friday afternoon. With low RH (below 15) locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible for a few hours amidst dry fuels. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated Highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough with an attendant cold front and associated Pacific moisture pushing into the northwestern U.S. will be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms on Day 2 (Saturday). A subtle mid-level wind maxima introducing increasing vertical wind shear (35-40 knots) into southeastern OR and central ID will promote faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories. The thunderstorm threat could extend into Saturday night/early Sunday morning given lingering elevated instability and favorable shear profiles. Limited rainfall could support new ignitions over dry fuels with outflow winds impacting existing active fires across the area. ...Great Basin... Mid-level troughing across the Northwest should continue to promote breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern/northeastern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15% are expected in some valleys in the Great Basin but not widespread enough to include Elevated highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the West will gradually intensify Friday as central US ridging also builds and gradually shifts eastward. As western US troughing deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A cold front will move through the Northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of OR, WA and northern CA, while dry and breezy conditions will persist over the southern Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades. To the east, diurnal heating and more modest moisture should support a relatively dry boundary layer with drier storms. isolated to scattered storms are expected along the cold front from eastern OR into western ID. While some wetting rainfall is possible, the modest moisture and faster storm speed should still support isolated dry thunder potential over the Northeast and central Rockies Friday afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Great Basin... As the western US trough slowly deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will remain fairly modest over the West. Still, some increase is expected over portions of southern NV and western UT. While not overly strong, afternoon westerly winds near 15 mph appear possible Friday afternoon. With low RH (below 15) locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible for a few hours amidst dry fuels. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated Highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough with an attendant cold front and associated Pacific moisture pushing into the northwestern U.S. will be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms on Day 2 (Saturday). A subtle mid-level wind maxima introducing increasing vertical wind shear (35-40 knots) into southeastern OR and central ID will promote faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories. The thunderstorm threat could extend into Saturday night/early Sunday morning given lingering elevated instability and favorable shear profiles. Limited rainfall could support new ignitions over dry fuels with outflow winds impacting existing active fires across the area. ...Great Basin... Mid-level troughing across the Northwest should continue to promote breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern/northeastern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15% are expected in some valleys in the Great Basin but not widespread enough to include Elevated highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the West will gradually intensify Friday as central US ridging also builds and gradually shifts eastward. As western US troughing deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A cold front will move through the Northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of OR, WA and northern CA, while dry and breezy conditions will persist over the southern Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades. To the east, diurnal heating and more modest moisture should support a relatively dry boundary layer with drier storms. isolated to scattered storms are expected along the cold front from eastern OR into western ID. While some wetting rainfall is possible, the modest moisture and faster storm speed should still support isolated dry thunder potential over the Northeast and central Rockies Friday afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Great Basin... As the western US trough slowly deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will remain fairly modest over the West. Still, some increase is expected over portions of southern NV and western UT. While not overly strong, afternoon westerly winds near 15 mph appear possible Friday afternoon. With low RH (below 15) locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible for a few hours amidst dry fuels. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated Highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough with an attendant cold front and associated Pacific moisture pushing into the northwestern U.S. will be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms on Day 2 (Saturday). A subtle mid-level wind maxima introducing increasing vertical wind shear (35-40 knots) into southeastern OR and central ID will promote faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories. The thunderstorm threat could extend into Saturday night/early Sunday morning given lingering elevated instability and favorable shear profiles. Limited rainfall could support new ignitions over dry fuels with outflow winds impacting existing active fires across the area. ...Great Basin... Mid-level troughing across the Northwest should continue to promote breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern/northeastern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15% are expected in some valleys in the Great Basin but not widespread enough to include Elevated highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the West will gradually intensify Friday as central US ridging also builds and gradually shifts eastward. As western US troughing deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A cold front will move through the Northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of OR, WA and northern CA, while dry and breezy conditions will persist over the southern Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades. To the east, diurnal heating and more modest moisture should support a relatively dry boundary layer with drier storms. isolated to scattered storms are expected along the cold front from eastern OR into western ID. While some wetting rainfall is possible, the modest moisture and faster storm speed should still support isolated dry thunder potential over the Northeast and central Rockies Friday afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Great Basin... As the western US trough slowly deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will remain fairly modest over the West. Still, some increase is expected over portions of southern NV and western UT. While not overly strong, afternoon westerly winds near 15 mph appear possible Friday afternoon. With low RH (below 15) locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible for a few hours amidst dry fuels. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated Highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough with an attendant cold front and associated Pacific moisture pushing into the northwestern U.S. will be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms on Day 2 (Saturday). A subtle mid-level wind maxima introducing increasing vertical wind shear (35-40 knots) into southeastern OR and central ID will promote faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories. The thunderstorm threat could extend into Saturday night/early Sunday morning given lingering elevated instability and favorable shear profiles. Limited rainfall could support new ignitions over dry fuels with outflow winds impacting existing active fires across the area. ...Great Basin... Mid-level troughing across the Northwest should continue to promote breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern/northeastern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15% are expected in some valleys in the Great Basin but not widespread enough to include Elevated highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the West will gradually intensify Friday as central US ridging also builds and gradually shifts eastward. As western US troughing deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A cold front will move through the Northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of OR, WA and northern CA, while dry and breezy conditions will persist over the southern Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades. To the east, diurnal heating and more modest moisture should support a relatively dry boundary layer with drier storms. isolated to scattered storms are expected along the cold front from eastern OR into western ID. While some wetting rainfall is possible, the modest moisture and faster storm speed should still support isolated dry thunder potential over the Northeast and central Rockies Friday afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Great Basin... As the western US trough slowly deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will remain fairly modest over the West. Still, some increase is expected over portions of southern NV and western UT. While not overly strong, afternoon westerly winds near 15 mph appear possible Friday afternoon. With low RH (below 15) locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible for a few hours amidst dry fuels. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated Highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough with an attendant cold front and associated Pacific moisture pushing into the northwestern U.S. will be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms on Day 2 (Saturday). A subtle mid-level wind maxima introducing increasing vertical wind shear (35-40 knots) into southeastern OR and central ID will promote faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories. The thunderstorm threat could extend into Saturday night/early Sunday morning given lingering elevated instability and favorable shear profiles. Limited rainfall could support new ignitions over dry fuels with outflow winds impacting existing active fires across the area. ...Great Basin... Mid-level troughing across the Northwest should continue to promote breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern/northeastern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15% are expected in some valleys in the Great Basin but not widespread enough to include Elevated highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the West will gradually intensify Friday as central US ridging also builds and gradually shifts eastward. As western US troughing deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A cold front will move through the Northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of OR, WA and northern CA, while dry and breezy conditions will persist over the southern Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades. To the east, diurnal heating and more modest moisture should support a relatively dry boundary layer with drier storms. isolated to scattered storms are expected along the cold front from eastern OR into western ID. While some wetting rainfall is possible, the modest moisture and faster storm speed should still support isolated dry thunder potential over the Northeast and central Rockies Friday afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Great Basin... As the western US trough slowly deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will remain fairly modest over the West. Still, some increase is expected over portions of southern NV and western UT. While not overly strong, afternoon westerly winds near 15 mph appear possible Friday afternoon. With low RH (below 15) locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible for a few hours amidst dry fuels. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated Highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough with an attendant cold front and associated Pacific moisture pushing into the northwestern U.S. will be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms on Day 2 (Saturday). A subtle mid-level wind maxima introducing increasing vertical wind shear (35-40 knots) into southeastern OR and central ID will promote faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories. The thunderstorm threat could extend into Saturday night/early Sunday morning given lingering elevated instability and favorable shear profiles. Limited rainfall could support new ignitions over dry fuels with outflow winds impacting existing active fires across the area. ...Great Basin... Mid-level troughing across the Northwest should continue to promote breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern/northeastern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15% are expected in some valleys in the Great Basin but not widespread enough to include Elevated highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the West will gradually intensify Friday as central US ridging also builds and gradually shifts eastward. As western US troughing deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A cold front will move through the Northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of OR, WA and northern CA, while dry and breezy conditions will persist over the southern Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades. To the east, diurnal heating and more modest moisture should support a relatively dry boundary layer with drier storms. isolated to scattered storms are expected along the cold front from eastern OR into western ID. While some wetting rainfall is possible, the modest moisture and faster storm speed should still support isolated dry thunder potential over the Northeast and central Rockies Friday afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Great Basin... As the western US trough slowly deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will remain fairly modest over the West. Still, some increase is expected over portions of southern NV and western UT. While not overly strong, afternoon westerly winds near 15 mph appear possible Friday afternoon. With low RH (below 15) locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible for a few hours amidst dry fuels. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated Highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough with an attendant cold front and associated Pacific moisture pushing into the northwestern U.S. will be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms on Day 2 (Saturday). A subtle mid-level wind maxima introducing increasing vertical wind shear (35-40 knots) into southeastern OR and central ID will promote faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories. The thunderstorm threat could extend into Saturday night/early Sunday morning given lingering elevated instability and favorable shear profiles. Limited rainfall could support new ignitions over dry fuels with outflow winds impacting existing active fires across the area. ...Great Basin... Mid-level troughing across the Northwest should continue to promote breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern/northeastern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15% are expected in some valleys in the Great Basin but not widespread enough to include Elevated highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the West will gradually intensify Friday as central US ridging also builds and gradually shifts eastward. As western US troughing deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A cold front will move through the Northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of OR, WA and northern CA, while dry and breezy conditions will persist over the southern Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades. To the east, diurnal heating and more modest moisture should support a relatively dry boundary layer with drier storms. isolated to scattered storms are expected along the cold front from eastern OR into western ID. While some wetting rainfall is possible, the modest moisture and faster storm speed should still support isolated dry thunder potential over the Northeast and central Rockies Friday afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Great Basin... As the western US trough slowly deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will remain fairly modest over the West. Still, some increase is expected over portions of southern NV and western UT. While not overly strong, afternoon westerly winds near 15 mph appear possible Friday afternoon. With low RH (below 15) locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible for a few hours amidst dry fuels. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated Highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough with an attendant cold front and associated Pacific moisture pushing into the northwestern U.S. will be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms on Day 2 (Saturday). A subtle mid-level wind maxima introducing increasing vertical wind shear (35-40 knots) into southeastern OR and central ID will promote faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories. The thunderstorm threat could extend into Saturday night/early Sunday morning given lingering elevated instability and favorable shear profiles. Limited rainfall could support new ignitions over dry fuels with outflow winds impacting existing active fires across the area. ...Great Basin... Mid-level troughing across the Northwest should continue to promote breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern/northeastern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15% are expected in some valleys in the Great Basin but not widespread enough to include Elevated highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the West will gradually intensify Friday as central US ridging also builds and gradually shifts eastward. As western US troughing deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A cold front will move through the Northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of OR, WA and northern CA, while dry and breezy conditions will persist over the southern Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades. To the east, diurnal heating and more modest moisture should support a relatively dry boundary layer with drier storms. isolated to scattered storms are expected along the cold front from eastern OR into western ID. While some wetting rainfall is possible, the modest moisture and faster storm speed should still support isolated dry thunder potential over the Northeast and central Rockies Friday afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Great Basin... As the western US trough slowly deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will remain fairly modest over the West. Still, some increase is expected over portions of southern NV and western UT. While not overly strong, afternoon westerly winds near 15 mph appear possible Friday afternoon. With low RH (below 15) locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible for a few hours amidst dry fuels. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated Highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough with an attendant cold front and associated Pacific moisture pushing into the northwestern U.S. will be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms on Day 2 (Saturday). A subtle mid-level wind maxima introducing increasing vertical wind shear (35-40 knots) into southeastern OR and central ID will promote faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories. The thunderstorm threat could extend into Saturday night/early Sunday morning given lingering elevated instability and favorable shear profiles. Limited rainfall could support new ignitions over dry fuels with outflow winds impacting existing active fires across the area. ...Great Basin... Mid-level troughing across the Northwest should continue to promote breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern/northeastern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15% are expected in some valleys in the Great Basin but not widespread enough to include Elevated highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the West will gradually intensify Friday as central US ridging also builds and gradually shifts eastward. As western US troughing deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A cold front will move through the Northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of OR, WA and northern CA, while dry and breezy conditions will persist over the southern Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades. To the east, diurnal heating and more modest moisture should support a relatively dry boundary layer with drier storms. isolated to scattered storms are expected along the cold front from eastern OR into western ID. While some wetting rainfall is possible, the modest moisture and faster storm speed should still support isolated dry thunder potential over the Northeast and central Rockies Friday afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Great Basin... As the western US trough slowly deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will remain fairly modest over the West. Still, some increase is expected over portions of southern NV and western UT. While not overly strong, afternoon westerly winds near 15 mph appear possible Friday afternoon. With low RH (below 15) locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible for a few hours amidst dry fuels. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated Highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough with an attendant cold front and associated Pacific moisture pushing into the northwestern U.S. will be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms on Day 2 (Saturday). A subtle mid-level wind maxima introducing increasing vertical wind shear (35-40 knots) into southeastern OR and central ID will promote faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories. The thunderstorm threat could extend into Saturday night/early Sunday morning given lingering elevated instability and favorable shear profiles. Limited rainfall could support new ignitions over dry fuels with outflow winds impacting existing active fires across the area. ...Great Basin... Mid-level troughing across the Northwest should continue to promote breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern/northeastern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15% are expected in some valleys in the Great Basin but not widespread enough to include Elevated highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the West will gradually intensify Friday as central US ridging also builds and gradually shifts eastward. As western US troughing deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A cold front will move through the Northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of OR, WA and northern CA, while dry and breezy conditions will persist over the southern Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades. To the east, diurnal heating and more modest moisture should support a relatively dry boundary layer with drier storms. isolated to scattered storms are expected along the cold front from eastern OR into western ID. While some wetting rainfall is possible, the modest moisture and faster storm speed should still support isolated dry thunder potential over the Northeast and central Rockies Friday afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Great Basin... As the western US trough slowly deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will remain fairly modest over the West. Still, some increase is expected over portions of southern NV and western UT. While not overly strong, afternoon westerly winds near 15 mph appear possible Friday afternoon. With low RH (below 15) locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible for a few hours amidst dry fuels. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated Highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough with an attendant cold front and associated Pacific moisture pushing into the northwestern U.S. will be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms on Day 2 (Saturday). A subtle mid-level wind maxima introducing increasing vertical wind shear (35-40 knots) into southeastern OR and central ID will promote faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories. The thunderstorm threat could extend into Saturday night/early Sunday morning given lingering elevated instability and favorable shear profiles. Limited rainfall could support new ignitions over dry fuels with outflow winds impacting existing active fires across the area. ...Great Basin... Mid-level troughing across the Northwest should continue to promote breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern/northeastern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15% are expected in some valleys in the Great Basin but not widespread enough to include Elevated highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the West will gradually intensify Friday as central US ridging also builds and gradually shifts eastward. As western US troughing deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A cold front will move through the Northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of OR, WA and northern CA, while dry and breezy conditions will persist over the southern Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades. To the east, diurnal heating and more modest moisture should support a relatively dry boundary layer with drier storms. isolated to scattered storms are expected along the cold front from eastern OR into western ID. While some wetting rainfall is possible, the modest moisture and faster storm speed should still support isolated dry thunder potential over the Northeast and central Rockies Friday afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Great Basin... As the western US trough slowly deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will remain fairly modest over the West. Still, some increase is expected over portions of southern NV and western UT. While not overly strong, afternoon westerly winds near 15 mph appear possible Friday afternoon. With low RH (below 15) locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible for a few hours amidst dry fuels. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated Highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough with an attendant cold front and associated Pacific moisture pushing into the northwestern U.S. will be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms on Day 2 (Saturday). A subtle mid-level wind maxima introducing increasing vertical wind shear (35-40 knots) into southeastern OR and central ID will promote faster northeastward thunderstorm trajectories. The thunderstorm threat could extend into Saturday night/early Sunday morning given lingering elevated instability and favorable shear profiles. Limited rainfall could support new ignitions over dry fuels with outflow winds impacting existing active fires across the area. ...Great Basin... Mid-level troughing across the Northwest should continue to promote breezy and dry conditions across portions of southern/northeastern NV and western UT. South-southwest winds of up to 15 mph along with daytime relative humidity as low as 15% are expected in some valleys in the Great Basin but not widespread enough to include Elevated highlights at this time. ..Williams.. 08/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Troughing over the West will gradually intensify Friday as central US ridging also builds and gradually shifts eastward. As western US troughing deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A cold front will move through the Northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of OR, WA and northern CA, while dry and breezy conditions will persist over the southern Great Basin. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Across the Northwest and central Rockies, persistent monsoon moisture will be in palace ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades. To the east, diurnal heating and more modest moisture should support a relatively dry boundary layer with drier storms. isolated to scattered storms are expected along the cold front from eastern OR into western ID. While some wetting rainfall is possible, the modest moisture and faster storm speed should still support isolated dry thunder potential over the Northeast and central Rockies Friday afternoon into the early evening. ...Southern Great Basin... As the western US trough slowly deepens, southwesterly flow aloft will remain fairly modest over the West. Still, some increase is expected over portions of southern NV and western UT. While not overly strong, afternoon westerly winds near 15 mph appear possible Friday afternoon. With low RH (below 15) locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible for a few hours amidst dry fuels. The lack of stronger winds for now precludes elevated Highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains eastward into Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest into the southern Great Lakes... A flattened mid-level ridge will influence thunderstorm activity on Sunday across a large part of the CONUS. On the northern periphery of the ridge, a weak mid-level disturbance is forecast to crest the ridge over the north-central states and move from SD to the western Great Lakes. Warm 700-mb temperatures and an associated capping inversion will likely limit storm development across the lower MO Valley. A composite surface boundary, likely modulated by previous day's thunderstorm outflow, is forecast to be draped from the southern Great Lakes west-northwestward into parts of the Upper Midwest and into portions of the northern High Plains. Showers and storms may be ongoing early Sunday morning across the Upper Midwest in association with weak low-level warm advection in advance of the aforementioned impulse. Isolated to scattered diurnal storms are forecast to focus along the low-level boundary during the afternoon/evening given large-scale upper forcing for ascent will remain weak to negligible. Despite expected strong diurnal destabilization, deep-layer shear will likely remain modest and limit storm organization potential, with isolated severe gusts and large hail being the severe hazards. ..Smith.. 08/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains eastward into Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest into the southern Great Lakes... A flattened mid-level ridge will influence thunderstorm activity on Sunday across a large part of the CONUS. On the northern periphery of the ridge, a weak mid-level disturbance is forecast to crest the ridge over the north-central states and move from SD to the western Great Lakes. Warm 700-mb temperatures and an associated capping inversion will likely limit storm development across the lower MO Valley. A composite surface boundary, likely modulated by previous day's thunderstorm outflow, is forecast to be draped from the southern Great Lakes west-northwestward into parts of the Upper Midwest and into portions of the northern High Plains. Showers and storms may be ongoing early Sunday morning across the Upper Midwest in association with weak low-level warm advection in advance of the aforementioned impulse. Isolated to scattered diurnal storms are forecast to focus along the low-level boundary during the afternoon/evening given large-scale upper forcing for ascent will remain weak to negligible. Despite expected strong diurnal destabilization, deep-layer shear will likely remain modest and limit storm organization potential, with isolated severe gusts and large hail being the severe hazards. ..Smith.. 08/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains eastward into Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest into the southern Great Lakes... A flattened mid-level ridge will influence thunderstorm activity on Sunday across a large part of the CONUS. On the northern periphery of the ridge, a weak mid-level disturbance is forecast to crest the ridge over the north-central states and move from SD to the western Great Lakes. Warm 700-mb temperatures and an associated capping inversion will likely limit storm development across the lower MO Valley. A composite surface boundary, likely modulated by previous day's thunderstorm outflow, is forecast to be draped from the southern Great Lakes west-northwestward into parts of the Upper Midwest and into portions of the northern High Plains. Showers and storms may be ongoing early Sunday morning across the Upper Midwest in association with weak low-level warm advection in advance of the aforementioned impulse. Isolated to scattered diurnal storms are forecast to focus along the low-level boundary during the afternoon/evening given large-scale upper forcing for ascent will remain weak to negligible. Despite expected strong diurnal destabilization, deep-layer shear will likely remain modest and limit storm organization potential, with isolated severe gusts and large hail being the severe hazards. ..Smith.. 08/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the northern Plains eastward into Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest into the southern Great Lakes... A flattened mid-level ridge will influence thunderstorm activity on Sunday across a large part of the CONUS. On the northern periphery of the ridge, a weak mid-level disturbance is forecast to crest the ridge over the north-central states and move from SD to the western Great Lakes. Warm 700-mb temperatures and an associated capping inversion will likely limit storm development across the lower MO Valley. A composite surface boundary, likely modulated by previous day's thunderstorm outflow, is forecast to be draped from the southern Great Lakes west-northwestward into parts of the Upper Midwest and into portions of the northern High Plains. Showers and storms may be ongoing early Sunday morning across the Upper Midwest in association with weak low-level warm advection in advance of the aforementioned impulse. Isolated to scattered diurnal storms are forecast to focus along the low-level boundary during the afternoon/evening given large-scale upper forcing for ascent will remain weak to negligible. Despite expected strong diurnal destabilization, deep-layer shear will likely remain modest and limit storm organization potential, with isolated severe gusts and large hail being the severe hazards. ..Smith.. 08/15/2025 Read more