Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Northeast New Mexico... Downslope enhancement and drying off the Sangre De Cristo Mountains should support a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to reflect expected breezy southwest winds coupled with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer supporting afternoon relative humidity as low as 10 percent. ...Florida... A steady east-southeast wind, relative humidity in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon along with very dry fuels will continue to support Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the western Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more