Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough progressing east-southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region Friday will support surface cyclogenesis over the Lower Michigan area. As the low develops/shifts eastward with time, a surface cold front will advance southeastward across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and more slowly southward across the Oklahoma area. Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific will deepen and shift southeastward, reaching the central California Coast overnight. In response, downstream ridging will amplify across the central U.S. through the period. ...Southern Plains... Convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Oklahoma/Kansas area, in the vicinity of the sagging cold front. Despite ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector capping should support isolated to scattered storm redevelopment by afternoon, particularly near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day. Moderate afternoon destabilization, but modest shear, and large-scale ridging, suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection through the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local. ..Goss.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southern/Central Plains... Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as this activity spreads east. Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be possible with this activity. For short-term convective details, refer to MCD #540. ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa... A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today. Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. ..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025 Read more