Severe Storms

MD 0671 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN ALABAMA INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0671 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Alabama into northwest Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032134Z - 032330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A squall line developing across northeast to central Alabama may pose a damaging wind threat through the early evening hours. Watch issuance is possible if convective trends continue to increase. DISCUSSION...An organized squall line continues to develop across northeast to central AL as a cold front pushes into the region. Earlier cloud cover across the warm sector has begun to erode over the past hour or so, resulting in temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s with a corresponding reduction in inhibition and increasing MLCAPE (upwards of 500-1000 J/kg per recent mesoanalysis estimates). The improving thermodynamic environment, coupled with 35-40 knots of deep-layer shear per regional VWPs, is supporting an overall uptick in convective intensity based on GOES IR imagery and MRMS echo tops. Lingering clouds and gradually diminishing diurnal insolation suggest that the thermodynamic environment is likely at its zenith, so the overall convective intensity remains somewhat uncertain heading into the late afternoon/early evening. Regardless, based on current observations, this squall line and embedded supercells should be sufficient to produce damaging gusts, occasional large hail, and perhaps embedded circulations where line segments can become meridionally oriented and more orthogonal to the southwesterly low-level shear vectors. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for a watch. ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 33078405 32678453 32508502 32438560 32418624 32498684 32588719 32728729 32948705 33478660 34008607 34498572 34958504 35028475 35018434 34898408 34618387 34258376 33728381 33078405 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CHO TO 25 ESE MRB TO 25 ESE HGR TO 25 WSW CXY. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-032340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-013-015-025-027-031-033-510-032340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY PAC001-071-133-032340- Read more

WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0221 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0670 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE TRANS-PECOS IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0670 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...the Trans-Pecos in southwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032006Z - 032230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two, capable of large hail, may develop this afternoon. If storms form and intensify, the severe threat should still be isolated, so a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to deepen across the Trans-Pecos region in southwest TX as warming surface temperatures beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributes to 500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Despite mid-level ridging, the overspreading of a 60-80 kt 300 mb jet stream is resulting in 40+ kts of 0-6 km speed shear (per latest RAP forecast soundings and mesoanalysis). This vertical shear profile, along with the aforementioned buoyancy, is adequate in supporting supercell storm modes capable of producing large hail with any updrafts that can mature and sustain themselves. Given modest instability and ascent, storm development should remain quite isolated, along with any severe threat that manages to materialize. Given the anticipated isolated severe threat, a WW issuance is unlikely. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...EPZ... LAT...LON 31010569 31230513 31170422 31050308 30670203 30090164 29750173 29710228 29650256 29350275 28990303 28940329 29110392 29490440 29750463 30140483 30460500 30600517 31010569 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0220 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0220 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 219 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-032240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-013-015-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-032240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY PAC001-071-133-032240- Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ORH TO 25 S CON TO 10 W PSM. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...OKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC013-032240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TOLLAND MAC017-032240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MIDDLESEX NHC015-032240- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROCKINGHAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ORH TO 25 S CON TO 10 W PSM. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...OKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC013-032240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TOLLAND MAC017-032240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MIDDLESEX NHC015-032240- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROCKINGHAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ORH TO 25 S CON TO 10 W PSM. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...OKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC013-032240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TOLLAND MAC017-032240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MIDDLESEX NHC015-032240- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ROCKINGHAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 218 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NY VT 031710Z - 040000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 218 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Connecticut Massachusetts Far Southern Maine Southern New Hampshire Southern New York Southern Vermont * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to increase in coverage and intensity in a narrow southwest-to-northeast corridor this afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and occasional severe hail should be the main threats with this activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Poughkeepsie NY to 25 miles east southeast of Concord NH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 0669 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST OREGON
Mesoscale Discussion 0669 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...much of Nevada into southern Idaho and extreme southeast Oregon Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031937Z - 032100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts are possible through the afternoon. Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...High-based convection has been slowly deepening through the day, with adequate surface heating resulting in a dry boundary layer mixing up to 600 mb (per 18Z RAP forecast soundings), and 0-3 km lapse rates steepening to 9-10 C/km (19Z mesoanalysis). As a highly amplified mid-level trough further impinges on the Great Basin, increasing deep-layer ascent and speed shear will support greater coverage/intensity of high-based multicellular clusters. Enough evaporative cooling may transpire to support isolated severe gusts via dry microbursts within the stronger storm cores. Nonetheless, given the isolated nature of the potentially severe gusts, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...VEF...BOI...LKN...REV... LAT...LON 37041649 37341716 38121783 39091815 40671836 41901814 42631783 42831648 42581559 41661500 39921504 38421519 37561546 37211579 37041649 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

MD 0668 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218... FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0668 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...southern New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 218... Valid 031932Z - 032100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 218 continues. SUMMARY...A strong to isolated severe threat, mainly in the form of damaging winds, should persist for a few more hours. These threats will diminish by early evening. DISCUSSION...Earlier discrete to semi-discrete cells have largely congealed into an emerging linear cluster from western CT into far southern NH. The linear segment will offer the best potential for damaging winds over the next couple hours across northern CT and MA, where surface temperatures in the low to mid 80s are prevalent. Marine-layer influence from Long Island Sound will curtail the southern extent of the severe potential, as well as earlier convection/marine influence near the coastal NH/ME portion of the watch. This suggests the severe-storm threat will diminish in the early evening. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 42277275 42907169 43067126 43067116 42917105 42697092 42487099 42237098 42087110 41887147 41697184 41587228 41467288 41467330 41577324 41937296 42277275 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0667 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
Mesoscale Discussion 0667 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic States Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031850Z - 032045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may develop over the next few hours from parts of central/northern Virginia into southeast Pennsylvania. Uncertainty exists over the degree of severe-storm coverage to warrant a watch. DISCUSSION...Between a severe-storm threat ongoing over the Lower Hudson Valley and a separate corridor of strong storms from the SC Midlands into far southwest VA, an isolated to strong to severe threat may develop over the next few hours. Large-scale ascent is nebulous in the near-term, but will improve this evening as mid-level height falls overspread. Until that time, the degree of storm coverage beyond isolated appears questionable. But where more robust insolation has yielded low to mid 80s surface temps, convective development is underway near the Blue Ridge Mountains. Despite modest low-level flow per area VWP data, moderate deep-layer southwesterly speed shear should favor potential for a few transient/weak supercell structures. These will offer a risk for isolated severe hail and damaging wind into at least early evening. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37587978 38087981 39337898 40247809 40557730 40787659 40567572 40007558 39577604 38507732 37437867 37587978 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0219 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BDL TO 20 NNE BAF TO 15 WNW PSM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0668. ..GRAMS..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...OKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC003-013-032140- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARTFORD TOLLAND MAC011-013-015-017-027-032140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER NHC011-015-032140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HILLSBOROUGH ROCKINGHAM Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z As an upper-level low shifts eastward out of the Southwest on D3/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of central and southern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Light to locally moderate rainfall has occurred over the last 24-48 hours across central New Mexico, however, fuels in this region remain critically dry with dry/windy conditions forecast on D2/Sunday. Some overlap of afternoon elevated to locally critical wind and relative humidity appears likely again Monday. A 40 percent delineation was added to cover this risk. Further south and east, fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D2/Sunday into D3/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D3/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through much of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z As an upper-level low shifts eastward out of the Southwest on D3/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of central and southern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Light to locally moderate rainfall has occurred over the last 24-48 hours across central New Mexico, however, fuels in this region remain critically dry with dry/windy conditions forecast on D2/Sunday. Some overlap of afternoon elevated to locally critical wind and relative humidity appears likely again Monday. A 40 percent delineation was added to cover this risk. Further south and east, fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D2/Sunday into D3/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D3/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through much of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z As an upper-level low shifts eastward out of the Southwest on D3/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of central and southern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Light to locally moderate rainfall has occurred over the last 24-48 hours across central New Mexico, however, fuels in this region remain critically dry with dry/windy conditions forecast on D2/Sunday. Some overlap of afternoon elevated to locally critical wind and relative humidity appears likely again Monday. A 40 percent delineation was added to cover this risk. Further south and east, fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D2/Sunday into D3/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D3/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through much of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z As an upper-level low shifts eastward out of the Southwest on D3/Monday, a surface low will deepen across western Texas/southern New Mexico. Windy/dry conditions will overlap across portions of central and southern New Mexico into western Texas behind the dryline Monday afternoon. Light to locally moderate rainfall has occurred over the last 24-48 hours across central New Mexico, however, fuels in this region remain critically dry with dry/windy conditions forecast on D2/Sunday. Some overlap of afternoon elevated to locally critical wind and relative humidity appears likely again Monday. A 40 percent delineation was added to cover this risk. Further south and east, fuels in southeastern New Mexico have seen more recent rainfall in the last 7-14 days, with ERCs in the 50th percentile. Some additional rainfall is expected across this region and into western Texas late D2/Sunday into D3/Monday, which will likely mitigate the fire risk. Some localized Elevated concerns will remain possible where less rainfall is received. Beyond D3/Monday, some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues. Heights will rise across the southwest bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. This will keep fire concerns low through much of the extended. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more