Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is expected to be low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated upper low within the Southwest into the southern Plains will weaken as it slowly moves eastward on Wednesday. The strongest, but decreasing with time, mid-level winds will reside along the Gulf Coast. At the surface, weak boundaries are expected to extend from the lower Mississippi Valley into South Texas. At the start of the period, convection is expected to be in portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This activity should be moving into a stable airmass and does not currently appear that it will pose an organized severe threat. Models differ in the expansiveness of this convective activity. The NAM in particular shows outflow stalling in southern Louisiana into the Upper Texas Coast. If this were to occur, a very moist airmass and lingering moderate mid-level flow could allow for a zone of strong to severe storms near the outflow boundary. The ECMWF/GFS push outflow offshore. There is additional potential for strong to severe storms in South Texas. However, some capping will be in place and mid-level heights will be neutral. Confidence in organized severe weather remains too low for probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is expected to be low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated upper low within the Southwest into the southern Plains will weaken as it slowly moves eastward on Wednesday. The strongest, but decreasing with time, mid-level winds will reside along the Gulf Coast. At the surface, weak boundaries are expected to extend from the lower Mississippi Valley into South Texas. At the start of the period, convection is expected to be in portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This activity should be moving into a stable airmass and does not currently appear that it will pose an organized severe threat. Models differ in the expansiveness of this convective activity. The NAM in particular shows outflow stalling in southern Louisiana into the Upper Texas Coast. If this were to occur, a very moist airmass and lingering moderate mid-level flow could allow for a zone of strong to severe storms near the outflow boundary. The ECMWF/GFS push outflow offshore. There is additional potential for strong to severe storms in South Texas. However, some capping will be in place and mid-level heights will be neutral. Confidence in organized severe weather remains too low for probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is expected to be low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated upper low within the Southwest into the southern Plains will weaken as it slowly moves eastward on Wednesday. The strongest, but decreasing with time, mid-level winds will reside along the Gulf Coast. At the surface, weak boundaries are expected to extend from the lower Mississippi Valley into South Texas. At the start of the period, convection is expected to be in portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This activity should be moving into a stable airmass and does not currently appear that it will pose an organized severe threat. Models differ in the expansiveness of this convective activity. The NAM in particular shows outflow stalling in southern Louisiana into the Upper Texas Coast. If this were to occur, a very moist airmass and lingering moderate mid-level flow could allow for a zone of strong to severe storms near the outflow boundary. The ECMWF/GFS push outflow offshore. There is additional potential for strong to severe storms in South Texas. However, some capping will be in place and mid-level heights will be neutral. Confidence in organized severe weather remains too low for probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... With the blocking pattern still in place, the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will continue to make slow progress on Tuesday. A shortwave trough on the base of the upper low is expected to eject into the southern Plains. This will promote severe potential across much of the region into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rich moisture will continue to push into much of Texas and a warm front will lift to near the Red River. ...Central/East Texas into Western Louisiana... A complicated forecast exists across these regions. Convection is anticipated to develop in West Texas along a retreating dryline late on Day 1/Monday. Models are in general agreement that some of this activity will persist into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be advecting northward/westward ahead of this activity. There is some potential for this activity to remain slightly elevated given the early morning timing and some overnight boundary layer cooling. However, high theta-e advection will also mitigate inhibition. Though this uncertainty remains, the Slight risk has been moved farther westward in central Texas to account for potential near-surface/surface based storms early on Tuesday. Additional early morning activity is expected along the northward lifting warm front as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains and the low-level jet impinges on the boundary. How this morning activity evolves will greatly impact the potential for higher-end severe storms in the afternoon and what the greatest severe hazard will be. The very moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a zone of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in parts of Central/East Texas south of the warm front. With greater than 50 kts of effective shear, all severe hazards would be possible regardless of the ultimate evolution of the convection. That being said, there appears to be a corridor of conditionally higher severe potential near and just south of the warm front in Northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana. Should a more organized cluster/MCS persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, there is greater potential for a swath of severe wind gusts as the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Without the MCS, there is greater potential for storms developing along the warm front to produce tornadoes (perhaps strong) as the strong low-level jet and fringe of the steeper lapse rates will overlap. Given the weakly capped boundary layer even early in the day, there is reasonable confidence in numerous storms, particularly along the warm front. With large amounts of storm interference possible, on top of potential MCS, confidence is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities. Concerning the MCS and greater severe wind potential, models vary greatly on the placement of this feature. Similarly, confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities as well. Overall, scattered to numerous storms along the warm front and dryline in central Texas will be capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail is most likely along the dryline or with storms that develop along the southern edge of any MCS. ...Red River Vicinity... Storms near the Red River and northward are more likely to be elevated. Large hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts could occur. There is some tornado potential south of the Red River into North Texas where storms will be at least near-surface based. ...Texas Panhandle... With the upper-level low moving into parts of the Panhandle and weak surface low in the South Plains, there is potential for moisture to remain along a surface boundary. Several models show low 50s F dewpoints in the region. The question will be how much surface heating occurs. Should sufficient buoyancy develop, cold temperatures aloft will promote potential for marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts in the strongest storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... With the Upper Ohio Valley cyclone moving slowly northeast, there will be potential for another round of convection to develop near the core of the upper low where greater surface heating occurs. Marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with storms during the afternoon. ...South Texas... Forcing for ascent will be somewhat weak during the afternoon and storm development is not certain. Some model guidance suggests that storms could form during the overnight near the Rio Grande Valley as a shortwave impulse moves over South Texas and adjacent Mexico. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with any supercells that can develop. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... With the blocking pattern still in place, the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will continue to make slow progress on Tuesday. A shortwave trough on the base of the upper low is expected to eject into the southern Plains. This will promote severe potential across much of the region into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rich moisture will continue to push into much of Texas and a warm front will lift to near the Red River. ...Central/East Texas into Western Louisiana... A complicated forecast exists across these regions. Convection is anticipated to develop in West Texas along a retreating dryline late on Day 1/Monday. Models are in general agreement that some of this activity will persist into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be advecting northward/westward ahead of this activity. There is some potential for this activity to remain slightly elevated given the early morning timing and some overnight boundary layer cooling. However, high theta-e advection will also mitigate inhibition. Though this uncertainty remains, the Slight risk has been moved farther westward in central Texas to account for potential near-surface/surface based storms early on Tuesday. Additional early morning activity is expected along the northward lifting warm front as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains and the low-level jet impinges on the boundary. How this morning activity evolves will greatly impact the potential for higher-end severe storms in the afternoon and what the greatest severe hazard will be. The very moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a zone of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in parts of Central/East Texas south of the warm front. With greater than 50 kts of effective shear, all severe hazards would be possible regardless of the ultimate evolution of the convection. That being said, there appears to be a corridor of conditionally higher severe potential near and just south of the warm front in Northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana. Should a more organized cluster/MCS persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, there is greater potential for a swath of severe wind gusts as the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Without the MCS, there is greater potential for storms developing along the warm front to produce tornadoes (perhaps strong) as the strong low-level jet and fringe of the steeper lapse rates will overlap. Given the weakly capped boundary layer even early in the day, there is reasonable confidence in numerous storms, particularly along the warm front. With large amounts of storm interference possible, on top of potential MCS, confidence is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities. Concerning the MCS and greater severe wind potential, models vary greatly on the placement of this feature. Similarly, confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities as well. Overall, scattered to numerous storms along the warm front and dryline in central Texas will be capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail is most likely along the dryline or with storms that develop along the southern edge of any MCS. ...Red River Vicinity... Storms near the Red River and northward are more likely to be elevated. Large hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts could occur. There is some tornado potential south of the Red River into North Texas where storms will be at least near-surface based. ...Texas Panhandle... With the upper-level low moving into parts of the Panhandle and weak surface low in the South Plains, there is potential for moisture to remain along a surface boundary. Several models show low 50s F dewpoints in the region. The question will be how much surface heating occurs. Should sufficient buoyancy develop, cold temperatures aloft will promote potential for marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts in the strongest storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... With the Upper Ohio Valley cyclone moving slowly northeast, there will be potential for another round of convection to develop near the core of the upper low where greater surface heating occurs. Marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with storms during the afternoon. ...South Texas... Forcing for ascent will be somewhat weak during the afternoon and storm development is not certain. Some model guidance suggests that storms could form during the overnight near the Rio Grande Valley as a shortwave impulse moves over South Texas and adjacent Mexico. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with any supercells that can develop. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... With the blocking pattern still in place, the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will continue to make slow progress on Tuesday. A shortwave trough on the base of the upper low is expected to eject into the southern Plains. This will promote severe potential across much of the region into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rich moisture will continue to push into much of Texas and a warm front will lift to near the Red River. ...Central/East Texas into Western Louisiana... A complicated forecast exists across these regions. Convection is anticipated to develop in West Texas along a retreating dryline late on Day 1/Monday. Models are in general agreement that some of this activity will persist into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be advecting northward/westward ahead of this activity. There is some potential for this activity to remain slightly elevated given the early morning timing and some overnight boundary layer cooling. However, high theta-e advection will also mitigate inhibition. Though this uncertainty remains, the Slight risk has been moved farther westward in central Texas to account for potential near-surface/surface based storms early on Tuesday. Additional early morning activity is expected along the northward lifting warm front as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains and the low-level jet impinges on the boundary. How this morning activity evolves will greatly impact the potential for higher-end severe storms in the afternoon and what the greatest severe hazard will be. The very moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a zone of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in parts of Central/East Texas south of the warm front. With greater than 50 kts of effective shear, all severe hazards would be possible regardless of the ultimate evolution of the convection. That being said, there appears to be a corridor of conditionally higher severe potential near and just south of the warm front in Northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana. Should a more organized cluster/MCS persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, there is greater potential for a swath of severe wind gusts as the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Without the MCS, there is greater potential for storms developing along the warm front to produce tornadoes (perhaps strong) as the strong low-level jet and fringe of the steeper lapse rates will overlap. Given the weakly capped boundary layer even early in the day, there is reasonable confidence in numerous storms, particularly along the warm front. With large amounts of storm interference possible, on top of potential MCS, confidence is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities. Concerning the MCS and greater severe wind potential, models vary greatly on the placement of this feature. Similarly, confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities as well. Overall, scattered to numerous storms along the warm front and dryline in central Texas will be capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail is most likely along the dryline or with storms that develop along the southern edge of any MCS. ...Red River Vicinity... Storms near the Red River and northward are more likely to be elevated. Large hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts could occur. There is some tornado potential south of the Red River into North Texas where storms will be at least near-surface based. ...Texas Panhandle... With the upper-level low moving into parts of the Panhandle and weak surface low in the South Plains, there is potential for moisture to remain along a surface boundary. Several models show low 50s F dewpoints in the region. The question will be how much surface heating occurs. Should sufficient buoyancy develop, cold temperatures aloft will promote potential for marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts in the strongest storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... With the Upper Ohio Valley cyclone moving slowly northeast, there will be potential for another round of convection to develop near the core of the upper low where greater surface heating occurs. Marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with storms during the afternoon. ...South Texas... Forcing for ascent will be somewhat weak during the afternoon and storm development is not certain. Some model guidance suggests that storms could form during the overnight near the Rio Grande Valley as a shortwave impulse moves over South Texas and adjacent Mexico. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with any supercells that can develop. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... With the blocking pattern still in place, the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will continue to make slow progress on Tuesday. A shortwave trough on the base of the upper low is expected to eject into the southern Plains. This will promote severe potential across much of the region into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rich moisture will continue to push into much of Texas and a warm front will lift to near the Red River. ...Central/East Texas into Western Louisiana... A complicated forecast exists across these regions. Convection is anticipated to develop in West Texas along a retreating dryline late on Day 1/Monday. Models are in general agreement that some of this activity will persist into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be advecting northward/westward ahead of this activity. There is some potential for this activity to remain slightly elevated given the early morning timing and some overnight boundary layer cooling. However, high theta-e advection will also mitigate inhibition. Though this uncertainty remains, the Slight risk has been moved farther westward in central Texas to account for potential near-surface/surface based storms early on Tuesday. Additional early morning activity is expected along the northward lifting warm front as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains and the low-level jet impinges on the boundary. How this morning activity evolves will greatly impact the potential for higher-end severe storms in the afternoon and what the greatest severe hazard will be. The very moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a zone of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in parts of Central/East Texas south of the warm front. With greater than 50 kts of effective shear, all severe hazards would be possible regardless of the ultimate evolution of the convection. That being said, there appears to be a corridor of conditionally higher severe potential near and just south of the warm front in Northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana. Should a more organized cluster/MCS persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, there is greater potential for a swath of severe wind gusts as the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Without the MCS, there is greater potential for storms developing along the warm front to produce tornadoes (perhaps strong) as the strong low-level jet and fringe of the steeper lapse rates will overlap. Given the weakly capped boundary layer even early in the day, there is reasonable confidence in numerous storms, particularly along the warm front. With large amounts of storm interference possible, on top of potential MCS, confidence is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities. Concerning the MCS and greater severe wind potential, models vary greatly on the placement of this feature. Similarly, confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities as well. Overall, scattered to numerous storms along the warm front and dryline in central Texas will be capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail is most likely along the dryline or with storms that develop along the southern edge of any MCS. ...Red River Vicinity... Storms near the Red River and northward are more likely to be elevated. Large hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts could occur. There is some tornado potential south of the Red River into North Texas where storms will be at least near-surface based. ...Texas Panhandle... With the upper-level low moving into parts of the Panhandle and weak surface low in the South Plains, there is potential for moisture to remain along a surface boundary. Several models show low 50s F dewpoints in the region. The question will be how much surface heating occurs. Should sufficient buoyancy develop, cold temperatures aloft will promote potential for marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts in the strongest storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... With the Upper Ohio Valley cyclone moving slowly northeast, there will be potential for another round of convection to develop near the core of the upper low where greater surface heating occurs. Marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with storms during the afternoon. ...South Texas... Forcing for ascent will be somewhat weak during the afternoon and storm development is not certain. Some model guidance suggests that storms could form during the overnight near the Rio Grande Valley as a shortwave impulse moves over South Texas and adjacent Mexico. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with any supercells that can develop. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... With the blocking pattern still in place, the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will continue to make slow progress on Tuesday. A shortwave trough on the base of the upper low is expected to eject into the southern Plains. This will promote severe potential across much of the region into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rich moisture will continue to push into much of Texas and a warm front will lift to near the Red River. ...Central/East Texas into Western Louisiana... A complicated forecast exists across these regions. Convection is anticipated to develop in West Texas along a retreating dryline late on Day 1/Monday. Models are in general agreement that some of this activity will persist into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be advecting northward/westward ahead of this activity. There is some potential for this activity to remain slightly elevated given the early morning timing and some overnight boundary layer cooling. However, high theta-e advection will also mitigate inhibition. Though this uncertainty remains, the Slight risk has been moved farther westward in central Texas to account for potential near-surface/surface based storms early on Tuesday. Additional early morning activity is expected along the northward lifting warm front as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains and the low-level jet impinges on the boundary. How this morning activity evolves will greatly impact the potential for higher-end severe storms in the afternoon and what the greatest severe hazard will be. The very moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a zone of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in parts of Central/East Texas south of the warm front. With greater than 50 kts of effective shear, all severe hazards would be possible regardless of the ultimate evolution of the convection. That being said, there appears to be a corridor of conditionally higher severe potential near and just south of the warm front in Northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana. Should a more organized cluster/MCS persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, there is greater potential for a swath of severe wind gusts as the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Without the MCS, there is greater potential for storms developing along the warm front to produce tornadoes (perhaps strong) as the strong low-level jet and fringe of the steeper lapse rates will overlap. Given the weakly capped boundary layer even early in the day, there is reasonable confidence in numerous storms, particularly along the warm front. With large amounts of storm interference possible, on top of potential MCS, confidence is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities. Concerning the MCS and greater severe wind potential, models vary greatly on the placement of this feature. Similarly, confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities as well. Overall, scattered to numerous storms along the warm front and dryline in central Texas will be capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail is most likely along the dryline or with storms that develop along the southern edge of any MCS. ...Red River Vicinity... Storms near the Red River and northward are more likely to be elevated. Large hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts could occur. There is some tornado potential south of the Red River into North Texas where storms will be at least near-surface based. ...Texas Panhandle... With the upper-level low moving into parts of the Panhandle and weak surface low in the South Plains, there is potential for moisture to remain along a surface boundary. Several models show low 50s F dewpoints in the region. The question will be how much surface heating occurs. Should sufficient buoyancy develop, cold temperatures aloft will promote potential for marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts in the strongest storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... With the Upper Ohio Valley cyclone moving slowly northeast, there will be potential for another round of convection to develop near the core of the upper low where greater surface heating occurs. Marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with storms during the afternoon. ...South Texas... Forcing for ascent will be somewhat weak during the afternoon and storm development is not certain. Some model guidance suggests that storms could form during the overnight near the Rio Grande Valley as a shortwave impulse moves over South Texas and adjacent Mexico. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with any supercells that can develop. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... With the blocking pattern still in place, the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will continue to make slow progress on Tuesday. A shortwave trough on the base of the upper low is expected to eject into the southern Plains. This will promote severe potential across much of the region into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rich moisture will continue to push into much of Texas and a warm front will lift to near the Red River. ...Central/East Texas into Western Louisiana... A complicated forecast exists across these regions. Convection is anticipated to develop in West Texas along a retreating dryline late on Day 1/Monday. Models are in general agreement that some of this activity will persist into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be advecting northward/westward ahead of this activity. There is some potential for this activity to remain slightly elevated given the early morning timing and some overnight boundary layer cooling. However, high theta-e advection will also mitigate inhibition. Though this uncertainty remains, the Slight risk has been moved farther westward in central Texas to account for potential near-surface/surface based storms early on Tuesday. Additional early morning activity is expected along the northward lifting warm front as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains and the low-level jet impinges on the boundary. How this morning activity evolves will greatly impact the potential for higher-end severe storms in the afternoon and what the greatest severe hazard will be. The very moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a zone of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in parts of Central/East Texas south of the warm front. With greater than 50 kts of effective shear, all severe hazards would be possible regardless of the ultimate evolution of the convection. That being said, there appears to be a corridor of conditionally higher severe potential near and just south of the warm front in Northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana. Should a more organized cluster/MCS persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, there is greater potential for a swath of severe wind gusts as the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Without the MCS, there is greater potential for storms developing along the warm front to produce tornadoes (perhaps strong) as the strong low-level jet and fringe of the steeper lapse rates will overlap. Given the weakly capped boundary layer even early in the day, there is reasonable confidence in numerous storms, particularly along the warm front. With large amounts of storm interference possible, on top of potential MCS, confidence is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities. Concerning the MCS and greater severe wind potential, models vary greatly on the placement of this feature. Similarly, confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities as well. Overall, scattered to numerous storms along the warm front and dryline in central Texas will be capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail is most likely along the dryline or with storms that develop along the southern edge of any MCS. ...Red River Vicinity... Storms near the Red River and northward are more likely to be elevated. Large hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts could occur. There is some tornado potential south of the Red River into North Texas where storms will be at least near-surface based. ...Texas Panhandle... With the upper-level low moving into parts of the Panhandle and weak surface low in the South Plains, there is potential for moisture to remain along a surface boundary. Several models show low 50s F dewpoints in the region. The question will be how much surface heating occurs. Should sufficient buoyancy develop, cold temperatures aloft will promote potential for marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts in the strongest storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... With the Upper Ohio Valley cyclone moving slowly northeast, there will be potential for another round of convection to develop near the core of the upper low where greater surface heating occurs. Marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with storms during the afternoon. ...South Texas... Forcing for ascent will be somewhat weak during the afternoon and storm development is not certain. Some model guidance suggests that storms could form during the overnight near the Rio Grande Valley as a shortwave impulse moves over South Texas and adjacent Mexico. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with any supercells that can develop. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more