Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Tuesday across the country. Residual dry/windy conditions are possible across parts of southwest TX and far southern NM as a westerly downslope flow regime becomes established with the eastward departure of a deepening surface low. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds and drying may be enhanced. While most solutions agree on the general flow regime, disparity in the wind speed forecast among deterministic models and ensemble guidance limits confidence in the potential for a sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... With the blocking pattern still in place, the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will continue to make slow progress on Tuesday. A shortwave trough on the base of the upper low is expected to eject into the southern Plains. This will promote severe potential across much of the region into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rich moisture will continue to push into much of Texas and a warm front will lift to near the Red River. ...Central/East Texas into Western Louisiana... A complicated forecast exists across these regions. Convection is anticipated to develop in West Texas along a retreating dryline late on Day 1/Monday. Models are in general agreement that some of this activity will persist into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be advecting northward/westward ahead of this activity. There is some potential for this activity to remain slightly elevated given the early morning timing and some overnight boundary layer cooling. However, high theta-e advection will also mitigate inhibition. Though this uncertainty remains, the Slight risk has been moved farther westward in central Texas to account for potential near-surface/surface based storms early on Tuesday. Additional early morning activity is expected along the northward lifting warm front as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains and the low-level jet impinges on the boundary. How this morning activity evolves will greatly impact the potential for higher-end severe storms in the afternoon and what the greatest severe hazard will be. The very moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a zone of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in parts of Central/East Texas south of the warm front. With greater than 50 kts of effective shear, all severe hazards would be possible regardless of the ultimate evolution of the convection. That being said, there appears to be a corridor of conditionally higher severe potential near and just south of the warm front in Northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana. Should a more organized cluster/MCS persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, there is greater potential for a swath of severe wind gusts as the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Without the MCS, there is greater potential for storms developing along the warm front to produce tornadoes (perhaps strong) as the strong low-level jet and fringe of the steeper lapse rates will overlap. Given the weakly capped boundary layer even early in the day, there is reasonable confidence in numerous storms, particularly along the warm front. With large amounts of storm interference possible, on top of potential MCS, confidence is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities. Concerning the MCS and greater severe wind potential, models vary greatly on the placement of this feature. Similarly, confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities as well. Overall, scattered to numerous storms along the warm front and dryline in central Texas will be capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail is most likely along the dryline or with storms that develop along the southern edge of any MCS. ...Red River Vicinity... Storms near the Red River and northward are more likely to be elevated. Large hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts could occur. There is some tornado potential south of the Red River into North Texas where storms will be at least near-surface based. ...Texas Panhandle... With the upper-level low moving into parts of the Panhandle and weak surface low in the South Plains, there is potential for moisture to remain along a surface boundary. Several models show low 50s F dewpoints in the region. The question will be how much surface heating occurs. Should sufficient buoyancy develop, cold temperatures aloft will promote potential for marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts in the strongest storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... With the Upper Ohio Valley cyclone moving slowly northeast, there will be potential for another round of convection to develop near the core of the upper low where greater surface heating occurs. Marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with storms during the afternoon. ...South Texas... Forcing for ascent will be somewhat weak during the afternoon and storm development is not certain. Some model guidance suggests that storms could form during the overnight near the Rio Grande Valley as a shortwave impulse moves over South Texas and adjacent Mexico. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with any supercells that can develop. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... With the blocking pattern still in place, the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will continue to make slow progress on Tuesday. A shortwave trough on the base of the upper low is expected to eject into the southern Plains. This will promote severe potential across much of the region into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rich moisture will continue to push into much of Texas and a warm front will lift to near the Red River. ...Central/East Texas into Western Louisiana... A complicated forecast exists across these regions. Convection is anticipated to develop in West Texas along a retreating dryline late on Day 1/Monday. Models are in general agreement that some of this activity will persist into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be advecting northward/westward ahead of this activity. There is some potential for this activity to remain slightly elevated given the early morning timing and some overnight boundary layer cooling. However, high theta-e advection will also mitigate inhibition. Though this uncertainty remains, the Slight risk has been moved farther westward in central Texas to account for potential near-surface/surface based storms early on Tuesday. Additional early morning activity is expected along the northward lifting warm front as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains and the low-level jet impinges on the boundary. How this morning activity evolves will greatly impact the potential for higher-end severe storms in the afternoon and what the greatest severe hazard will be. The very moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a zone of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in parts of Central/East Texas south of the warm front. With greater than 50 kts of effective shear, all severe hazards would be possible regardless of the ultimate evolution of the convection. That being said, there appears to be a corridor of conditionally higher severe potential near and just south of the warm front in Northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana. Should a more organized cluster/MCS persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, there is greater potential for a swath of severe wind gusts as the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Without the MCS, there is greater potential for storms developing along the warm front to produce tornadoes (perhaps strong) as the strong low-level jet and fringe of the steeper lapse rates will overlap. Given the weakly capped boundary layer even early in the day, there is reasonable confidence in numerous storms, particularly along the warm front. With large amounts of storm interference possible, on top of potential MCS, confidence is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities. Concerning the MCS and greater severe wind potential, models vary greatly on the placement of this feature. Similarly, confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities as well. Overall, scattered to numerous storms along the warm front and dryline in central Texas will be capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail is most likely along the dryline or with storms that develop along the southern edge of any MCS. ...Red River Vicinity... Storms near the Red River and northward are more likely to be elevated. Large hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts could occur. There is some tornado potential south of the Red River into North Texas where storms will be at least near-surface based. ...Texas Panhandle... With the upper-level low moving into parts of the Panhandle and weak surface low in the South Plains, there is potential for moisture to remain along a surface boundary. Several models show low 50s F dewpoints in the region. The question will be how much surface heating occurs. Should sufficient buoyancy develop, cold temperatures aloft will promote potential for marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts in the strongest storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... With the Upper Ohio Valley cyclone moving slowly northeast, there will be potential for another round of convection to develop near the core of the upper low where greater surface heating occurs. Marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with storms during the afternoon. ...South Texas... Forcing for ascent will be somewhat weak during the afternoon and storm development is not certain. Some model guidance suggests that storms could form during the overnight near the Rio Grande Valley as a shortwave impulse moves over South Texas and adjacent Mexico. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with any supercells that can develop. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... With the blocking pattern still in place, the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will continue to make slow progress on Tuesday. A shortwave trough on the base of the upper low is expected to eject into the southern Plains. This will promote severe potential across much of the region into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rich moisture will continue to push into much of Texas and a warm front will lift to near the Red River. ...Central/East Texas into Western Louisiana... A complicated forecast exists across these regions. Convection is anticipated to develop in West Texas along a retreating dryline late on Day 1/Monday. Models are in general agreement that some of this activity will persist into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be advecting northward/westward ahead of this activity. There is some potential for this activity to remain slightly elevated given the early morning timing and some overnight boundary layer cooling. However, high theta-e advection will also mitigate inhibition. Though this uncertainty remains, the Slight risk has been moved farther westward in central Texas to account for potential near-surface/surface based storms early on Tuesday. Additional early morning activity is expected along the northward lifting warm front as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains and the low-level jet impinges on the boundary. How this morning activity evolves will greatly impact the potential for higher-end severe storms in the afternoon and what the greatest severe hazard will be. The very moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a zone of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in parts of Central/East Texas south of the warm front. With greater than 50 kts of effective shear, all severe hazards would be possible regardless of the ultimate evolution of the convection. That being said, there appears to be a corridor of conditionally higher severe potential near and just south of the warm front in Northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana. Should a more organized cluster/MCS persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, there is greater potential for a swath of severe wind gusts as the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Without the MCS, there is greater potential for storms developing along the warm front to produce tornadoes (perhaps strong) as the strong low-level jet and fringe of the steeper lapse rates will overlap. Given the weakly capped boundary layer even early in the day, there is reasonable confidence in numerous storms, particularly along the warm front. With large amounts of storm interference possible, on top of potential MCS, confidence is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities. Concerning the MCS and greater severe wind potential, models vary greatly on the placement of this feature. Similarly, confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities as well. Overall, scattered to numerous storms along the warm front and dryline in central Texas will be capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail is most likely along the dryline or with storms that develop along the southern edge of any MCS. ...Red River Vicinity... Storms near the Red River and northward are more likely to be elevated. Large hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts could occur. There is some tornado potential south of the Red River into North Texas where storms will be at least near-surface based. ...Texas Panhandle... With the upper-level low moving into parts of the Panhandle and weak surface low in the South Plains, there is potential for moisture to remain along a surface boundary. Several models show low 50s F dewpoints in the region. The question will be how much surface heating occurs. Should sufficient buoyancy develop, cold temperatures aloft will promote potential for marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts in the strongest storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... With the Upper Ohio Valley cyclone moving slowly northeast, there will be potential for another round of convection to develop near the core of the upper low where greater surface heating occurs. Marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with storms during the afternoon. ...South Texas... Forcing for ascent will be somewhat weak during the afternoon and storm development is not certain. Some model guidance suggests that storms could form during the overnight near the Rio Grande Valley as a shortwave impulse moves over South Texas and adjacent Mexico. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with any supercells that can develop. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... With the blocking pattern still in place, the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will continue to make slow progress on Tuesday. A shortwave trough on the base of the upper low is expected to eject into the southern Plains. This will promote severe potential across much of the region into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rich moisture will continue to push into much of Texas and a warm front will lift to near the Red River. ...Central/East Texas into Western Louisiana... A complicated forecast exists across these regions. Convection is anticipated to develop in West Texas along a retreating dryline late on Day 1/Monday. Models are in general agreement that some of this activity will persist into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be advecting northward/westward ahead of this activity. There is some potential for this activity to remain slightly elevated given the early morning timing and some overnight boundary layer cooling. However, high theta-e advection will also mitigate inhibition. Though this uncertainty remains, the Slight risk has been moved farther westward in central Texas to account for potential near-surface/surface based storms early on Tuesday. Additional early morning activity is expected along the northward lifting warm front as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains and the low-level jet impinges on the boundary. How this morning activity evolves will greatly impact the potential for higher-end severe storms in the afternoon and what the greatest severe hazard will be. The very moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a zone of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in parts of Central/East Texas south of the warm front. With greater than 50 kts of effective shear, all severe hazards would be possible regardless of the ultimate evolution of the convection. That being said, there appears to be a corridor of conditionally higher severe potential near and just south of the warm front in Northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana. Should a more organized cluster/MCS persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, there is greater potential for a swath of severe wind gusts as the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Without the MCS, there is greater potential for storms developing along the warm front to produce tornadoes (perhaps strong) as the strong low-level jet and fringe of the steeper lapse rates will overlap. Given the weakly capped boundary layer even early in the day, there is reasonable confidence in numerous storms, particularly along the warm front. With large amounts of storm interference possible, on top of potential MCS, confidence is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities. Concerning the MCS and greater severe wind potential, models vary greatly on the placement of this feature. Similarly, confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities as well. Overall, scattered to numerous storms along the warm front and dryline in central Texas will be capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail is most likely along the dryline or with storms that develop along the southern edge of any MCS. ...Red River Vicinity... Storms near the Red River and northward are more likely to be elevated. Large hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts could occur. There is some tornado potential south of the Red River into North Texas where storms will be at least near-surface based. ...Texas Panhandle... With the upper-level low moving into parts of the Panhandle and weak surface low in the South Plains, there is potential for moisture to remain along a surface boundary. Several models show low 50s F dewpoints in the region. The question will be how much surface heating occurs. Should sufficient buoyancy develop, cold temperatures aloft will promote potential for marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts in the strongest storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... With the Upper Ohio Valley cyclone moving slowly northeast, there will be potential for another round of convection to develop near the core of the upper low where greater surface heating occurs. Marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with storms during the afternoon. ...South Texas... Forcing for ascent will be somewhat weak during the afternoon and storm development is not certain. Some model guidance suggests that storms could form during the overnight near the Rio Grande Valley as a shortwave impulse moves over South Texas and adjacent Mexico. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with any supercells that can develop. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... With the blocking pattern still in place, the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will continue to make slow progress on Tuesday. A shortwave trough on the base of the upper low is expected to eject into the southern Plains. This will promote severe potential across much of the region into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rich moisture will continue to push into much of Texas and a warm front will lift to near the Red River. ...Central/East Texas into Western Louisiana... A complicated forecast exists across these regions. Convection is anticipated to develop in West Texas along a retreating dryline late on Day 1/Monday. Models are in general agreement that some of this activity will persist into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be advecting northward/westward ahead of this activity. There is some potential for this activity to remain slightly elevated given the early morning timing and some overnight boundary layer cooling. However, high theta-e advection will also mitigate inhibition. Though this uncertainty remains, the Slight risk has been moved farther westward in central Texas to account for potential near-surface/surface based storms early on Tuesday. Additional early morning activity is expected along the northward lifting warm front as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains and the low-level jet impinges on the boundary. How this morning activity evolves will greatly impact the potential for higher-end severe storms in the afternoon and what the greatest severe hazard will be. The very moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a zone of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in parts of Central/East Texas south of the warm front. With greater than 50 kts of effective shear, all severe hazards would be possible regardless of the ultimate evolution of the convection. That being said, there appears to be a corridor of conditionally higher severe potential near and just south of the warm front in Northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana. Should a more organized cluster/MCS persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, there is greater potential for a swath of severe wind gusts as the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Without the MCS, there is greater potential for storms developing along the warm front to produce tornadoes (perhaps strong) as the strong low-level jet and fringe of the steeper lapse rates will overlap. Given the weakly capped boundary layer even early in the day, there is reasonable confidence in numerous storms, particularly along the warm front. With large amounts of storm interference possible, on top of potential MCS, confidence is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities. Concerning the MCS and greater severe wind potential, models vary greatly on the placement of this feature. Similarly, confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities as well. Overall, scattered to numerous storms along the warm front and dryline in central Texas will be capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail is most likely along the dryline or with storms that develop along the southern edge of any MCS. ...Red River Vicinity... Storms near the Red River and northward are more likely to be elevated. Large hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts could occur. There is some tornado potential south of the Red River into North Texas where storms will be at least near-surface based. ...Texas Panhandle... With the upper-level low moving into parts of the Panhandle and weak surface low in the South Plains, there is potential for moisture to remain along a surface boundary. Several models show low 50s F dewpoints in the region. The question will be how much surface heating occurs. Should sufficient buoyancy develop, cold temperatures aloft will promote potential for marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts in the strongest storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... With the Upper Ohio Valley cyclone moving slowly northeast, there will be potential for another round of convection to develop near the core of the upper low where greater surface heating occurs. Marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with storms during the afternoon. ...South Texas... Forcing for ascent will be somewhat weak during the afternoon and storm development is not certain. Some model guidance suggests that storms could form during the overnight near the Rio Grande Valley as a shortwave impulse moves over South Texas and adjacent Mexico. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with any supercells that can develop. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... With the blocking pattern still in place, the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will continue to make slow progress on Tuesday. A shortwave trough on the base of the upper low is expected to eject into the southern Plains. This will promote severe potential across much of the region into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rich moisture will continue to push into much of Texas and a warm front will lift to near the Red River. ...Central/East Texas into Western Louisiana... A complicated forecast exists across these regions. Convection is anticipated to develop in West Texas along a retreating dryline late on Day 1/Monday. Models are in general agreement that some of this activity will persist into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be advecting northward/westward ahead of this activity. There is some potential for this activity to remain slightly elevated given the early morning timing and some overnight boundary layer cooling. However, high theta-e advection will also mitigate inhibition. Though this uncertainty remains, the Slight risk has been moved farther westward in central Texas to account for potential near-surface/surface based storms early on Tuesday. Additional early morning activity is expected along the northward lifting warm front as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains and the low-level jet impinges on the boundary. How this morning activity evolves will greatly impact the potential for higher-end severe storms in the afternoon and what the greatest severe hazard will be. The very moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a zone of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in parts of Central/East Texas south of the warm front. With greater than 50 kts of effective shear, all severe hazards would be possible regardless of the ultimate evolution of the convection. That being said, there appears to be a corridor of conditionally higher severe potential near and just south of the warm front in Northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana. Should a more organized cluster/MCS persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, there is greater potential for a swath of severe wind gusts as the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Without the MCS, there is greater potential for storms developing along the warm front to produce tornadoes (perhaps strong) as the strong low-level jet and fringe of the steeper lapse rates will overlap. Given the weakly capped boundary layer even early in the day, there is reasonable confidence in numerous storms, particularly along the warm front. With large amounts of storm interference possible, on top of potential MCS, confidence is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities. Concerning the MCS and greater severe wind potential, models vary greatly on the placement of this feature. Similarly, confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities as well. Overall, scattered to numerous storms along the warm front and dryline in central Texas will be capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail is most likely along the dryline or with storms that develop along the southern edge of any MCS. ...Red River Vicinity... Storms near the Red River and northward are more likely to be elevated. Large hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts could occur. There is some tornado potential south of the Red River into North Texas where storms will be at least near-surface based. ...Texas Panhandle... With the upper-level low moving into parts of the Panhandle and weak surface low in the South Plains, there is potential for moisture to remain along a surface boundary. Several models show low 50s F dewpoints in the region. The question will be how much surface heating occurs. Should sufficient buoyancy develop, cold temperatures aloft will promote potential for marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts in the strongest storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... With the Upper Ohio Valley cyclone moving slowly northeast, there will be potential for another round of convection to develop near the core of the upper low where greater surface heating occurs. Marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with storms during the afternoon. ...South Texas... Forcing for ascent will be somewhat weak during the afternoon and storm development is not certain. Some model guidance suggests that storms could form during the overnight near the Rio Grande Valley as a shortwave impulse moves over South Texas and adjacent Mexico. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with any supercells that can develop. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from eastern North Carolina into the central Appalachians and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... An omega blocking pattern continues to develop over the CONUS per recent water-vapor imagery and 00 UTC upper-air analysis, with two meandering upper lows over the Ohio River Valley and Southwest respectively. Northward moisture advection and ascent on the eastern periphery of both upper lows will promote another day of scattered thunderstorms (including strong to severe storms) across the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and southern High Plains into the Intermountain West. ...Southern High Plains... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern NM and western TX through much of the day. Although moisture return will initially be somewhat modest, persistent broad-scale ascent over the region will result in cooling temperatures aloft/steepening mid-level lapse rates that should compensate for the poor moisture quality. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central TX by early afternoon with additional storm development by late afternoon across the Permian basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Across both regions, deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 knots should promote supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. Across south-central TX, higher-quality moisture and stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km AGL may support a tornado threat. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow (observable in water-vapor imagery off the southern CA coast as of 06 UTC) is forecast to overspread southwest TX. Stronger surface pressure falls associated with this shortwave will induce strengthening low-level winds, which will not only enlarge low-level hodographs, but will augment moisture return into the region. Ascent within the strengthening warm advection regime should result in scattered supercell development between 00-06 UTC across the southern Permian Basin and adjacent areas of southeast NM. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells appear possible and will be capable of producing large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central TX. There remains some uncertainty among guidance regarding the development of a more organized MCS into TX through early Tuesday morning, but cells developing within the warm advection regime ahead of the upper wave may be capable of severe hail/wind. ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... Recent surface observations reveal a residual front/marine boundary draped from eastern VA into the eastern Carolinas. East of this boundary, richer low-level moisture in the form of low to mid-60s dewpoints is noted extending northward into southeast PA. Aloft, an embedded shortwave orbiting around the primary upper low is noted over the mid-MS River Valley in recent water-vapor imagery. This feature is expected to pivot into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians through the afternoon/evening and will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region into NC. Further to the northwest, lift ahead of the embedded shortwave combined with cold mid-level temperatures should promote thunderstorm development across WV and OH by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Similar thermodynamic and kinematic environments were observed yesterday across the region, and yielded isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, including a couple of supercells. ...Eastern Florida Coast... Regional 00 UTC soundings sampled somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates atop a seasonally moist boundary layer (characterized by upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) with limited inhibition. Heating of this air mass should eliminate any residual capping by late morning and early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 80s. Convective initiation will become more probable by mid/late afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from eastern North Carolina into the central Appalachians and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... An omega blocking pattern continues to develop over the CONUS per recent water-vapor imagery and 00 UTC upper-air analysis, with two meandering upper lows over the Ohio River Valley and Southwest respectively. Northward moisture advection and ascent on the eastern periphery of both upper lows will promote another day of scattered thunderstorms (including strong to severe storms) across the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and southern High Plains into the Intermountain West. ...Southern High Plains... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern NM and western TX through much of the day. Although moisture return will initially be somewhat modest, persistent broad-scale ascent over the region will result in cooling temperatures aloft/steepening mid-level lapse rates that should compensate for the poor moisture quality. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central TX by early afternoon with additional storm development by late afternoon across the Permian basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Across both regions, deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 knots should promote supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. Across south-central TX, higher-quality moisture and stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km AGL may support a tornado threat. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow (observable in water-vapor imagery off the southern CA coast as of 06 UTC) is forecast to overspread southwest TX. Stronger surface pressure falls associated with this shortwave will induce strengthening low-level winds, which will not only enlarge low-level hodographs, but will augment moisture return into the region. Ascent within the strengthening warm advection regime should result in scattered supercell development between 00-06 UTC across the southern Permian Basin and adjacent areas of southeast NM. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells appear possible and will be capable of producing large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central TX. There remains some uncertainty among guidance regarding the development of a more organized MCS into TX through early Tuesday morning, but cells developing within the warm advection regime ahead of the upper wave may be capable of severe hail/wind. ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... Recent surface observations reveal a residual front/marine boundary draped from eastern VA into the eastern Carolinas. East of this boundary, richer low-level moisture in the form of low to mid-60s dewpoints is noted extending northward into southeast PA. Aloft, an embedded shortwave orbiting around the primary upper low is noted over the mid-MS River Valley in recent water-vapor imagery. This feature is expected to pivot into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians through the afternoon/evening and will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region into NC. Further to the northwest, lift ahead of the embedded shortwave combined with cold mid-level temperatures should promote thunderstorm development across WV and OH by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Similar thermodynamic and kinematic environments were observed yesterday across the region, and yielded isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, including a couple of supercells. ...Eastern Florida Coast... Regional 00 UTC soundings sampled somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates atop a seasonally moist boundary layer (characterized by upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) with limited inhibition. Heating of this air mass should eliminate any residual capping by late morning and early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 80s. Convective initiation will become more probable by mid/late afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from eastern North Carolina into the central Appalachians and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... An omega blocking pattern continues to develop over the CONUS per recent water-vapor imagery and 00 UTC upper-air analysis, with two meandering upper lows over the Ohio River Valley and Southwest respectively. Northward moisture advection and ascent on the eastern periphery of both upper lows will promote another day of scattered thunderstorms (including strong to severe storms) across the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and southern High Plains into the Intermountain West. ...Southern High Plains... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern NM and western TX through much of the day. Although moisture return will initially be somewhat modest, persistent broad-scale ascent over the region will result in cooling temperatures aloft/steepening mid-level lapse rates that should compensate for the poor moisture quality. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central TX by early afternoon with additional storm development by late afternoon across the Permian basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Across both regions, deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 knots should promote supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. Across south-central TX, higher-quality moisture and stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km AGL may support a tornado threat. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow (observable in water-vapor imagery off the southern CA coast as of 06 UTC) is forecast to overspread southwest TX. Stronger surface pressure falls associated with this shortwave will induce strengthening low-level winds, which will not only enlarge low-level hodographs, but will augment moisture return into the region. Ascent within the strengthening warm advection regime should result in scattered supercell development between 00-06 UTC across the southern Permian Basin and adjacent areas of southeast NM. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells appear possible and will be capable of producing large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central TX. There remains some uncertainty among guidance regarding the development of a more organized MCS into TX through early Tuesday morning, but cells developing within the warm advection regime ahead of the upper wave may be capable of severe hail/wind. ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... Recent surface observations reveal a residual front/marine boundary draped from eastern VA into the eastern Carolinas. East of this boundary, richer low-level moisture in the form of low to mid-60s dewpoints is noted extending northward into southeast PA. Aloft, an embedded shortwave orbiting around the primary upper low is noted over the mid-MS River Valley in recent water-vapor imagery. This feature is expected to pivot into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians through the afternoon/evening and will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region into NC. Further to the northwest, lift ahead of the embedded shortwave combined with cold mid-level temperatures should promote thunderstorm development across WV and OH by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Similar thermodynamic and kinematic environments were observed yesterday across the region, and yielded isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, including a couple of supercells. ...Eastern Florida Coast... Regional 00 UTC soundings sampled somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates atop a seasonally moist boundary layer (characterized by upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) with limited inhibition. Heating of this air mass should eliminate any residual capping by late morning and early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 80s. Convective initiation will become more probable by mid/late afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from eastern North Carolina into the central Appalachians and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... An omega blocking pattern continues to develop over the CONUS per recent water-vapor imagery and 00 UTC upper-air analysis, with two meandering upper lows over the Ohio River Valley and Southwest respectively. Northward moisture advection and ascent on the eastern periphery of both upper lows will promote another day of scattered thunderstorms (including strong to severe storms) across the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and southern High Plains into the Intermountain West. ...Southern High Plains... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern NM and western TX through much of the day. Although moisture return will initially be somewhat modest, persistent broad-scale ascent over the region will result in cooling temperatures aloft/steepening mid-level lapse rates that should compensate for the poor moisture quality. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central TX by early afternoon with additional storm development by late afternoon across the Permian basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Across both regions, deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 knots should promote supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. Across south-central TX, higher-quality moisture and stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km AGL may support a tornado threat. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow (observable in water-vapor imagery off the southern CA coast as of 06 UTC) is forecast to overspread southwest TX. Stronger surface pressure falls associated with this shortwave will induce strengthening low-level winds, which will not only enlarge low-level hodographs, but will augment moisture return into the region. Ascent within the strengthening warm advection regime should result in scattered supercell development between 00-06 UTC across the southern Permian Basin and adjacent areas of southeast NM. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells appear possible and will be capable of producing large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central TX. There remains some uncertainty among guidance regarding the development of a more organized MCS into TX through early Tuesday morning, but cells developing within the warm advection regime ahead of the upper wave may be capable of severe hail/wind. ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... Recent surface observations reveal a residual front/marine boundary draped from eastern VA into the eastern Carolinas. East of this boundary, richer low-level moisture in the form of low to mid-60s dewpoints is noted extending northward into southeast PA. Aloft, an embedded shortwave orbiting around the primary upper low is noted over the mid-MS River Valley in recent water-vapor imagery. This feature is expected to pivot into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians through the afternoon/evening and will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region into NC. Further to the northwest, lift ahead of the embedded shortwave combined with cold mid-level temperatures should promote thunderstorm development across WV and OH by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Similar thermodynamic and kinematic environments were observed yesterday across the region, and yielded isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, including a couple of supercells. ...Eastern Florida Coast... Regional 00 UTC soundings sampled somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates atop a seasonally moist boundary layer (characterized by upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) with limited inhibition. Heating of this air mass should eliminate any residual capping by late morning and early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 80s. Convective initiation will become more probable by mid/late afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from eastern North Carolina into the central Appalachians and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... An omega blocking pattern continues to develop over the CONUS per recent water-vapor imagery and 00 UTC upper-air analysis, with two meandering upper lows over the Ohio River Valley and Southwest respectively. Northward moisture advection and ascent on the eastern periphery of both upper lows will promote another day of scattered thunderstorms (including strong to severe storms) across the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and southern High Plains into the Intermountain West. ...Southern High Plains... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern NM and western TX through much of the day. Although moisture return will initially be somewhat modest, persistent broad-scale ascent over the region will result in cooling temperatures aloft/steepening mid-level lapse rates that should compensate for the poor moisture quality. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central TX by early afternoon with additional storm development by late afternoon across the Permian basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Across both regions, deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 knots should promote supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. Across south-central TX, higher-quality moisture and stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km AGL may support a tornado threat. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow (observable in water-vapor imagery off the southern CA coast as of 06 UTC) is forecast to overspread southwest TX. Stronger surface pressure falls associated with this shortwave will induce strengthening low-level winds, which will not only enlarge low-level hodographs, but will augment moisture return into the region. Ascent within the strengthening warm advection regime should result in scattered supercell development between 00-06 UTC across the southern Permian Basin and adjacent areas of southeast NM. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells appear possible and will be capable of producing large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central TX. There remains some uncertainty among guidance regarding the development of a more organized MCS into TX through early Tuesday morning, but cells developing within the warm advection regime ahead of the upper wave may be capable of severe hail/wind. ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... Recent surface observations reveal a residual front/marine boundary draped from eastern VA into the eastern Carolinas. East of this boundary, richer low-level moisture in the form of low to mid-60s dewpoints is noted extending northward into southeast PA. Aloft, an embedded shortwave orbiting around the primary upper low is noted over the mid-MS River Valley in recent water-vapor imagery. This feature is expected to pivot into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians through the afternoon/evening and will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region into NC. Further to the northwest, lift ahead of the embedded shortwave combined with cold mid-level temperatures should promote thunderstorm development across WV and OH by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Similar thermodynamic and kinematic environments were observed yesterday across the region, and yielded isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, including a couple of supercells. ...Eastern Florida Coast... Regional 00 UTC soundings sampled somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates atop a seasonally moist boundary layer (characterized by upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) with limited inhibition. Heating of this air mass should eliminate any residual capping by late morning and early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 80s. Convective initiation will become more probable by mid/late afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 Read more