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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across the northern Rockies region into the central High Plains. Wind and hail remain the primary threats. ...01z Update... Scattered robust convection continues across the northern Rockies, arcing east-southeast over southern MT into the Black Hills region. This activity is partly driven by a weak short-wave trough that is ejecting across western MT ahead of the main Pacific northwest trough. Given the large-scale support, scattered severe thunderstorms should focus along a corridor primarily across southern MT into northeast WY through late evening. Farther south across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms developed within easterly low-level flow regime over northeast CO/southwest NE. This activity is beginning to cluster and an MCS may ultimately evolve over south-central NE/north-central KS along nose of LLJ. Have adjusted severe probs to account for this higher severe probability development. ..Darrow.. 08/11/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across the northern Rockies region into the central High Plains. Wind and hail remain the primary threats. ...01z Update... Scattered robust convection continues across the northern Rockies, arcing east-southeast over southern MT into the Black Hills region. This activity is partly driven by a weak short-wave trough that is ejecting across western MT ahead of the main Pacific northwest trough. Given the large-scale support, scattered severe thunderstorms should focus along a corridor primarily across southern MT into northeast WY through late evening. Farther south across the central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms developed within easterly low-level flow regime over northeast CO/southwest NE. This activity is beginning to cluster and an MCS may ultimately evolve over south-central NE/north-central KS along nose of LLJ. Have adjusted severe probs to account for this higher severe probability development. ..Darrow.. 08/11/2019 Read more

WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 567 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1692 ..COOK..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...BOI...MSO...PIH...TFX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IDC001-003-015-027-035-037-039-045-049-059-073-075-085-087- 110040- ID . IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADA ADAMS BOISE CANYON CLEARWATER CUSTER ELMORE GEM IDAHO LEMHI OWYHEE PAYETTE VALLEY WASHINGTON MTC001-007-023-027-031-039-043-045-049-057-059-061-063-077-081- 093-110040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVERHEAD BROADWATER DEER LODGE FERGUS GALLATIN GRANITE JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN LEWIS AND CLARK MADISON MEAGHER MINERAL MISSOULA POWELL RAVALLI Read more

WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 568 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1692 ..COOK..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-009-011-037-065-067-075-087-095-097-103-107-111-110040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARBON CARTER GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL PARK POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE SDC019-033-047-081-093-102-103-110040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON WYC003-005-011-019-033-043-045-110040- Read more

MD 1692 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567...568... FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1692 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Areas affected...portions of the Pacific Northwest eastward to the northern high Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 567...568... Valid 102253Z - 110100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 567, 568 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong/locally severe storms continue across a large portion of the northern Intermountain region, and vicinity. Locally damaging winds will remain the primary risk, though large hail also remains possible locally. DISCUSSION...The latest WV loop shows an upper low centered over northern California, with a pronounced dry slot extending from central and southern California across the Great Basin and into southeast Idaho. On either side of -- and near the nose of -- this dry slot, scattered thunderstorms continue to develop late this afternoon. Given the relatively moist/unstable airmass in an anticyclonic arc from eastern portions of the Pacific Northwest across western and northern Idaho and Montana, and into the northern high Plains, expect storms to continue across this region for several hours. A belt of fast/diffluent flow resides across this region -- sandwiched between the northern California upper low, and stout ridging over the central U.S. This flow will continue to support organized/rotating storms, locally capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW... TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT... LAT...LON 42021689 43411889 45031933 46641810 46811623 47431527 47640889 45710139 42870119 42610259 43230651 44201041 44501382 44031450 41921479 41681651 42021689 Read more

MD 1693 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON...AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1693 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Areas affected...eastern portions of Washington and Oregon...and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102312Z - 110115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop across portions of the Pacific Northwest. Local/limited severe risk is evident, though threat does not appear sufficient to warrant WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storm coverage continuing to increase across central and eastern Washington/eastern Oregon, and into adjacent northern Idaho, on the northern and eastern side periphery of an upper low center now indicated over northern California. Cold air aloft associated with this feature is combining with diurnal heating and a seasonally moist airmass to result in weak to moderate destabilization, with mixed-layer CAPE near 500 J/kg across eastern and northern Oregon, and as high as 1000 to 1500 J/kg northward into Washington. Deep-layer flow remains somewhat weak across this region, with stronger flow to the south and east, within the height gradient between the low, and a large area of ridging over the central U.S./Rockies. Still, with ample CAPE and enhanced large-scale ascent across the region, a few stronger cells will remain capable of producing locally gusty/damaging winds, and marginal hail. Activity should begin to gradually wane in intensity after dark, with the onset of diurnal cooling. ..Goss/Hart.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR... LAT...LON 43121711 43231841 44722043 46382171 47422179 48751991 49201632 48001606 44551657 43121711 Read more

MD 1694 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN AND INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1694 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Areas affected...western and into southern South Dakota...far northeast Colorado...and northern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 102332Z - 110130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated/intense thunderstorms continue across portions of western Nebraska and adjacent northeast Colorado. Locally damaging winds and hail remain possible with these storms, with some potential that risk expands eastward this evening. DISCUSSION...Latest objective analyses indicate a very moist/unstable airmass in place from the Nebraska Panhandle into southern Nebraska/northern Kansas, with a handful of strong/severe storms ongoing -- particularly in the southwest Nebraska/northeast Colorado vicinity. While low- to mid-level flow remains quite weak, stronger westerly winds are indicated above h5 -- through middle portions of the unstable/cloud-bearing layer. Risk for locally damaging winds and hail continues with the ongoing cells, but greater risk could evolve if storms can grow upscale and begin shifting eastward. This evolution seems at least possible, given the westerly flow aloft, the current/apparent congealing of convection over the southwest Nebraska vicinity, and the expected development of a southerly low-level jet over the next few hours. Some CAM output suggests this evolution as well, and given the amount of available CAPE, this could result in sufficient expansion of severe risk to warrant WW consideration. We will continue to monitor convective evolution across this area, for signs of an increase, and eastward advance, of the ongoing storms. ..Goss/Hart.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 38999912 39680288 40800310 42580402 42860395 42760173 42120081 41109756 39609779 38999912 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 102316
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the
southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low
pressure. This system has about a day or two to become a tropical
depression as it moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern
coast of Mexico. After that time, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of
development, the disturbance will likely bring locally heavy
rainfall along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is beginning to merge with the
larger disturbance to its north. Development of this system is
becoming less likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of disturbed weather located a little less than 1000
miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula is currently
disorganized. However, environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle
next week as this disturbance moves westward or west- northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

MD 1692 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567...568... FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1692 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Areas affected...portions of the Pacific Northwest eastward to the northern high Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 567...568... Valid 102253Z - 110100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 567, 568 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong/locally severe storms continue across a large portion of the northern Intermountain region, and vicinity. Locally damaging winds will remain the primary risk, though large hail also remains possible locally. DISCUSSION...The latest WV loop shows an upper low centered over northern California, with a pronounced dry slot extending from central and southern California across the Great Basin and into southeast Idaho. On either side of -- and near the nose of -- this dry slot, scattered thunderstorms continue to develop late this afternoon. Given the relatively moist/unstable airmass in an anticyclonic arc from eastern portions of the Pacific Northwest across western and northern Idaho and Montana, and into the northern high Plains, expect storms to continue across this region for several hours. A belt of fast/diffluent flow resides across this region -- sandwiched between the northern California upper low, and stout ridging over the central U.S. This flow will continue to support organized/rotating storms, locally capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. ..Goss.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW... TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT... LAT...LON 42021689 43411889 45031933 46641810 46811623 47431527 47640889 45710139 42870119 42610259 43230651 44201041 44501382 44031450 41921479 41681651 42021689 Read more

WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 567 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..COOK..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...BOI...MSO...PIH...TFX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IDC001-003-015-027-035-037-039-045-049-059-073-075-085-087- 102340- ID . IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADA ADAMS BOISE CANYON CLEARWATER CUSTER ELMORE GEM IDAHO LEMHI OWYHEE PAYETTE VALLEY WASHINGTON MTC001-007-023-027-031-039-043-045-049-057-059-061-063-077-081- 093-102340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVERHEAD BROADWATER DEER LODGE FERGUS GALLATIN GRANITE JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN LEWIS AND CLARK MADISON MEAGHER MINERAL MISSOULA POWELL RAVALLI SILVER BOW Read more

WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 568 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..COOK..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-009-011-037-065-067-075-087-095-097-103-107-111-102340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARBON CARTER GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL PARK POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE SDC019-033-047-081-093-102-103-102340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON WYC003-005-011-019-033-043-045-102340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 567 SEVERE TSTM ID MT 101935Z - 110300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 567 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Idaho Western Montana * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop from the Oregon-Idaho border region across southwest Montana. Some of these should become strong to severe, producing large hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Boise ID to 60 miles southeast of Helena MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21030. ...Grams Read more

WW 568 SEVERE TSTM MT SD WY 102105Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 568 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Montana Western South Dakota Northern Wyoming * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for isolated severe hail and wind into late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles south southwest of Harlowton MT to 45 miles east of Rapid City SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 567... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Grams Read more

WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0568 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1691 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MN...WESTERN/CENTRAL IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1691 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Areas affected...Southern MN...Western/central IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102056Z - 102300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon. The strongest cells will be capable of producing locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado or two. Due to uncertainty regarding the coverage of the threat, watch issuance is currently considered unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis depicts a weak surface low across southwest MN, with a surface boundary extending eastward across southern MN and then southeastward into northeastern IA. A zone of weakly confluent flow, likely related to differential heating, is also noted extending south of the low into western IA. Widespread cloudiness has limited heating across the region, but rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg across the eastern portion of the MCD area to around 2000 J/kg across the western portion. Thunderstorm development will be possible later this afternoon near these surface features, with the greatest threat likely near the confluence zone across northwest/north-central IA where somewhat greater destabilization is occurring. Moderate mid/upper-level flow is resulting in effective shear of 40-50 kt across the region, more than sufficient for organized storm structures (including supercells) should convection develop. Warm midlevel temperatures and generally weak midlevel lapse rates are likely to mitigate the severe threat (especially hail) to some extent, but eventual development of one or two supercells is possible. Locally damaging wind would be the primary threat, but a tornado or two would also be possible, given favorable boundary-layer moisture and marginally supportive low-level shear profiles. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely due to uncertainty regarding the number of storms that can develop across this region. However, this will be re-evaluated if multiple organized cells appear imminent. ..Dean/Grams.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 41379495 42219508 43389523 44169532 44389491 44339399 44029329 42499301 41769330 41539377 41379495 Read more

WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 567 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..EDWARDS..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...BOI...MSO...PIH...TFX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IDC001-003-015-027-035-037-039-045-049-059-073-075-085-087- 102140- ID . IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADA ADAMS BOISE CANYON CLEARWATER CUSTER ELMORE GEM IDAHO LEMHI OWYHEE PAYETTE VALLEY WASHINGTON MTC001-007-023-027-031-039-043-045-049-057-059-061-063-077-081- 093-102140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVERHEAD BROADWATER DEER LODGE FERGUS GALLATIN GRANITE JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN LEWIS AND CLARK MADISON MEAGHER MINERAL MISSOULA POWELL RAVALLI SILVER BOW Read more

MD 1690 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST ND...WESTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1690 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Areas affected...Southwest ND...Western SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101956Z - 102130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe wind will continue into late afternoon. The need for a watch is uncertain due to the limited areal coverage of the threat. DISCUSSION...A supercell has recently developed across southwest ND, with other cells attempting to develop across northeast SD, and further south over the Black Hills. Ongoing convection is being aided by moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and effective shear of 35-45 kt, which will continue to support a threat of isolated supercells posing a risk of large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. The airmass downstream of ongoing activity is noticeably cooler and more stable. Thus, the eastward extent of the threat may be relatively limited, with cells exhibiting more of a rightward motion (such as the cell in southwest ND) having more of a residence time within the generally uncapped and more favorable environment. The constrained area of the threat may preclude watch issuance, though at least a couple supercells will be possible into late afternoon across a portion of the region. ..Dean/Grams.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 43640369 44580375 45740326 46580260 46800231 46810193 46610161 46290146 45570162 44600197 43610247 43540320 43640369 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z The elevated was extended eastward into portions of central Wyoming, as the latest model guidance depicts 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and corresponding 15-25% RH overlapping drier fuels here, particularly for the lower terrain areas. In addition, a few dry lightning strikes may occur within the broader area of thunderstorm activity near the Idaho/Montana border. However, the potential for Day 1 precipitation accumulation, and heavy rain from the Day 2 round, may temper the lightning-induced wildfire spread threat, thus precluding an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation at this time. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains generally on track (see below for details). ..Squitieri.. 08/10/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve some as a persistent West Coast mid-level low weakens and migrates northeastward toward the central Rockies. Most of the thunderstorm potential evident over OR/CA and vicinity the past few days will lessen in the midst of subsidence aloft west of the mid-level trough. Meanwhile, slackening flow aloft over the Great Basin will result in weaker winds and a lessened (locally elevated) fire weather threat in these areas. A lingering risk of elevated fire weather will extend from eastern Idaho into western Wyoming Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Idaho, far northern Utah, and western Wyoming... As the mid-level wave ejects northeastward, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will migrate away from the western Great Basin and reach the discussion area during peak heating hours. Vertical mixing processes beneath this flow will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow for several hours. RH values will only flirt with critical thresholds on a limited/localized basis, however, and should mitigate the overall fire risk. Dry fuels should continue to support a risk of fire spread especially with ongoing fires, however. An isolated thunderstorm may also occur especially in eastern Idaho and vicinity, though coverage atop dry fuels currently does not warrant any dry thunder delineations for this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z The elevated was extended eastward into portions of central Wyoming, as the latest model guidance depicts 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and corresponding 15-25% RH overlapping drier fuels here, particularly for the lower terrain areas. In addition, a few dry lightning strikes may occur within the broader area of thunderstorm activity near the Idaho/Montana border. However, the potential for Day 1 precipitation accumulation, and heavy rain from the Day 2 round, may temper the lightning-induced wildfire spread threat, thus precluding an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation at this time. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains generally on track (see below for details). ..Squitieri.. 08/10/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve some as a persistent West Coast mid-level low weakens and migrates northeastward toward the central Rockies. Most of the thunderstorm potential evident over OR/CA and vicinity the past few days will lessen in the midst of subsidence aloft west of the mid-level trough. Meanwhile, slackening flow aloft over the Great Basin will result in weaker winds and a lessened (locally elevated) fire weather threat in these areas. A lingering risk of elevated fire weather will extend from eastern Idaho into western Wyoming Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Idaho, far northern Utah, and western Wyoming... As the mid-level wave ejects northeastward, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will migrate away from the western Great Basin and reach the discussion area during peak heating hours. Vertical mixing processes beneath this flow will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow for several hours. RH values will only flirt with critical thresholds on a limited/localized basis, however, and should mitigate the overall fire risk. Dry fuels should continue to support a risk of fire spread especially with ongoing fires, however. An isolated thunderstorm may also occur especially in eastern Idaho and vicinity, though coverage atop dry fuels currently does not warrant any dry thunder delineations for this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z The elevated was extended eastward into portions of central Wyoming, as the latest model guidance depicts 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and corresponding 15-25% RH overlapping drier fuels here, particularly for the lower terrain areas. In addition, a few dry lightning strikes may occur within the broader area of thunderstorm activity near the Idaho/Montana border. However, the potential for Day 1 precipitation accumulation, and heavy rain from the Day 2 round, may temper the lightning-induced wildfire spread threat, thus precluding an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation at this time. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains generally on track (see below for details). ..Squitieri.. 08/10/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve some as a persistent West Coast mid-level low weakens and migrates northeastward toward the central Rockies. Most of the thunderstorm potential evident over OR/CA and vicinity the past few days will lessen in the midst of subsidence aloft west of the mid-level trough. Meanwhile, slackening flow aloft over the Great Basin will result in weaker winds and a lessened (locally elevated) fire weather threat in these areas. A lingering risk of elevated fire weather will extend from eastern Idaho into western Wyoming Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Idaho, far northern Utah, and western Wyoming... As the mid-level wave ejects northeastward, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will migrate away from the western Great Basin and reach the discussion area during peak heating hours. Vertical mixing processes beneath this flow will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow for several hours. RH values will only flirt with critical thresholds on a limited/localized basis, however, and should mitigate the overall fire risk. Dry fuels should continue to support a risk of fire spread especially with ongoing fires, however. An isolated thunderstorm may also occur especially in eastern Idaho and vicinity, though coverage atop dry fuels currently does not warrant any dry thunder delineations for this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more