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MD 1682 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1682 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019 Areas affected...Southeastern South Dakota...northeastern Nebraska...and far northwestern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 092359Z - 100200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A downstream WW may be needed across portions of the discussion area by 01Z or so. DISCUSSION...Surface-based storms in south-central South Dakota are continuing to grow upscale while forward-propagating east-southeastward. The presence of locally enhanced low-level shear near a warm front bisecting the region from WNW-ESE will assist in occasional rotation in a few cells along with continued organization of the ongoing complex in the presence of moderate buoyancy. These storms will pose a hail/wind and isolated tornado risk through the evening, and with 290/30 storm motions, these storms should reach the southeastern extent of WW 564 during the 0130-0230Z time frame. Before this time, local extensions of WW 564 or a new WW (likely Severe Thunderstorm) will be coordinated with affected offices. ..Cook/Hart.. 08/09/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43130020 43350013 43429994 43479948 43759913 44099872 44389820 44449770 44009663 42999602 42289612 41889691 41879792 42269925 42549994 42970018 43130020 Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW PHP TO 40 NW PIR TO 45 NE PIR TO 30 WSW ATY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1681 ..COOK..08/09/19 ATTN...WFO...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-005-007-009-015-017-023-035-043-053-055-059-061-065-067- 069-071-073-075-085-095-111-117-119-121-123-100040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BENNETT BON HOMME BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HAAKON HAND HANSON HUGHES HUTCHINSON HYDE JACKSON JERAULD JONES LYMAN MELLETTE SANBORN STANLEY SULLY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

A red flag was flown in front of the courthouse in Sinton, indicating that a ban on outdoor burning was in effect. The ban lasts 90 days. KIII-TV3 South Texas (Corpus Christi, Texas), Aug. 8, 2019

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092321
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather associated with a broad area of low
pressure is hugging the southern coast of Mexico, and some of the
rainbands are already spreading inland over the state of Oaxaca.
This system remains disorganized, but environmental conditions could
favor some gradual development during the next 2 or 3 days while it
moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
After that time conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely bring locally heavy rainfall along portions
of the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the
Baja California peninsula is producing an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development through the middle
of next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
ABNT20 KNHC 092301
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

MD 1681 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 564... FOR MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1681 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019 Areas affected...Much of South Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 564... Valid 092253Z - 100000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 564 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 564. DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe storms continues across central portions of South Dakota near 9V9 and around 40 miles north of VTN. These storms have exhibited occasional rotation along with hail and strong wind gusts, which isn't surprising given the moderate CAPE/strong low-level shear environment in place - especially near the effective warm front. A tornado threat will exist, though radar presentation of ongoing storms hasn't been consistent with classic supercellular/mesocyclonic tornadoes over the last hour or so. In fact, storms appear to be congealing into a small linear segment near Buffalo/Lyman Counties. This evolution is consistent with recent high-resolution guidance/CAMs, which suggest that this cluster will begin to migrate southeastward along the warm front toward southeastern South Dakota over time. Upstream, an isolated, hail and wind-producing cell has exhibited supercellular structure over the past hour or so just northeast through east of Rapid City. This cell will continue to pose a severe risk for the next several hours and will approach western portions of WW 564 during that time. ..Cook.. 08/09/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR...PQR...EKA... LAT...LON 41372310 42012329 43282318 44052295 44632258 45272229 45492126 45601990 45751793 45451703 44571699 42591756 41791778 40891846 40631885 40311946 40431999 41062011 41402036 41752075 41722170 41192254 41082285 41372310 Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..COOK..08/09/19 ATTN...WFO...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-005-007-009-015-017-023-035-041-043-049-053-055-059-061- 065-067-069-071-073-075-085-095-107-111-115-117-119-121-123-137- 092340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BENNETT BON HOMME BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX DAVISON DEWEY DOUGLAS FAULK GREGORY HAAKON HAND HANSON HUGHES HUTCHINSON HYDE JACKSON JERAULD JONES LYMAN MELLETTE POTTER SANBORN SPINK STANLEY SULLY TODD TRIPP ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 564 TORNADO SD 091910Z - 100200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Supercells developing across west-central South Dakota should spread east-southeast across much of the central portion of the state before developing into a cluster towards eastern South Dakota. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Pierre SD to 10 miles north northeast of Mitchell SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Grams Read more

Wagon Mountain Fire, Missoula Ranger District Location: Located on top of Wagon Mountain, approximately 2 miles northeast of Lolo Pass Visitor Center and east of Highway 12. Not to be confused with the Wagon Mountain Road between Graves Creek and Fish Creek Roads on the west side of Highway 12. Status: The Wagon Mountain Fire was detected on Aug. 5, 2019 at approximately 2:30 p.m. by aircraft responding to the West Fork Lolo 2 Fire. The fire is burning in a previously logged area in new regeneration and also in mature spruce and mixed conifer. The fire is currently staffed as a Type 4 incident. Containment: 100% reached on 8/8/19 at 6:30 p.m. Structures or other values at risk: None at this time. No evacuations are in effect at this time.

An athletic field in Tuscola required three to four waterings per day to keep the field green. news gazette (Champaign, Ill.), Aug. 6, 2019

Unseasonably warm water and low stream flows due to drought have kept pink salmon out of Prince William Sound, lowering salmon harvests. The year-to-date harvest on Aug. 6 was 13.6 million fish, compared to a recent year-to-date odd-year harvest average of 31.2 million fish. Cordova Times (Alaska), Aug. 9, 2019

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..COOK..08/09/19 ATTN...WFO...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-005-007-009-015-017-023-035-041-043-049-053-055-059-061- 065-067-069-071-073-075-085-095-107-111-115-117-119-121-123-137- 092240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BENNETT BON HOMME BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX DAVISON DEWEY DOUGLAS FAULK GREGORY HAAKON HAND HANSON HUGHES HUTCHINSON HYDE JACKSON JERAULD JONES LYMAN MELLETTE POTTER SANBORN SPINK STANLEY SULLY TODD TRIPP ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0565 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0565 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 565 SEVERE TSTM OR 092135Z - 100500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 565 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and Central Oregon * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM PDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to intensify across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. A few of the storms are expected to become severe, with a risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Klamath Falls OR to 30 miles north northwest of Redmond OR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 564... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 18030. ...Hart Read more

As topsoil moisture became short in Ohio, crops began showing stress. Corn and soybeans needed rain to enhance their condition and growth. Ohio's Country Journal (Columbus, Ohio), Aug. 5, 2019

Dry weather was causing yield loss in parts of Kentucky, according to Chad Lee, University of Kentucky extension agronomist. The Messenger (Madisonville, Ky.), Aug. 8, 2019

Low flows on the Skagit River meant turning off pumps when minimum flows were not met. A dairy farmer near Mount Vernon was only able to pump one day during a three-week period in July. Skagit Valley Herald (GoSkagit.com) (Wash.), Aug. 3, 2019

MD 1680 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 564... FOR SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1680 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019 Areas affected...South Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 564... Valid 092043Z - 092215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 564 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes continues across much of SD. Some upscale growth is possible late this afternoon into the early evening, which would result in an increasing severe wind threat with time. DISCUSSION...One surface-based supercell is ongoing across south-central SD as of 2045Z, with other convection across the area generally near or north of the effective warm front. In the short term, a hail and locally severe wind risk will continue with the ongoing supercell and any semi-discrete cells that evolve out of the convection further north, given the presence of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) and effective shear of 40-50 kt. The tornado threat will be contingent on supercell interaction with the effective warm frontal zone. The ongoing supercell across south-central SD has thus far tracked slightly south of the effective boundary, though if it continues to track eastward, it may come in closer proximity to the warm front, which is oriented more northwest/southeast with eastward extent. If any semi-discrete supercells can evolve out of the slightly elevated convection to the north, they would also pose a tornado threat as they propagate east-southeast within a helicity-rich environment. The cells near/north of Pierre as of 2045Z may pose the greatest short-term tornado threat, given their proximity to the front. Otherwise, a tendency for upscale growth is expected with time as convection congeals over central SD, with a southeastward-moving complex capable of potentially more widespread severe wind possible by early evening into a larger portion of south-central/southeast SD. ..Dean.. 08/09/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 43310151 43680195 44560179 44750123 44760006 44659927 44559861 44409810 43879767 43339756 43189787 43179889 43210031 43310151 Read more

The Woodbury is now 100% controlled. State Route 88 Closure: Because of the potential for severe flooding from areas burned in the Woodbury Fire, a 7-mile, unpaved section of State Route 88 (Apache Trail) will remain closed from an area several miles east of Tortilla Flat to just west of the Apache Lake marina turnoff while the Arizona Department of Transportation continues assessing conditions. All inquiries in regards to the closure on State Route 88 (Apache Trail Historic Road) should be directed to ADOT. You can submit questions to ADOT by online form or phone by visiting https://azdot.gov/contact. Tortilla Flat business remain open. Additional information regarding the highway closure can be found at: https://azdot.gov/media/News/news-release/2019/07/29/seven-mile-stretch-of-sr-88-remains-closed-due-to-flooding-risk Forest Closure: For the purposes of public safety, the forest closure extends beyond the fire perimeter. The forest closure includes a portion of the Arizona Trail...